Money, money, money set to dominate indy debate

The ongoing row about currency and the economy seem likely to dominate the independence debate again this week . The UK government will meet in Scotland, where the Prime Minister will again press the economic case for the Union, but ahead of the visit the SNP is urging HM Treasury to think again over currency union.

Speaking ahead of this week’s Cabinet meeting in Scotland, the Prime Minister said: “Two weeks ago I gave a speech setting out why I believe Scotland should remain part of the UK. In that speech I spoke about our long-term economic plan to move from a country sinking under too much debt to one that is dynamic, innovative and creating thousands of jobs for people right across our country.

“The plan is working. Last year the economy grew by the fastest annual rate since the financial crisis, we have the highest number of UK businesses on record and we have cut taxes for 25 million people.

“And last week we saw that 1.3 million more people are now in jobs across the whole UK compared with 2010 – that’s 1.3 million more people with the security of a monthly pay packet and the peace of mind that brings.

“This week I will take the Cabinet to Scotland where we will set out how the UK government can maximise the benefit of North Sea oil and gas to the UK economy for decades into the future, giving a vital boost to local communities and families across Scotland.

“For the past 300 years, Britain has led the way in finding new sources of energy. It is the strength of the UK’s broad based economy, which can make the difference and ensure we can invest in our energy for the long-term future.

“I promise we will continue to use the UK’s broad shoulders to invest in this vital industry so we can attract businesses, create jobs, develop new skills in our young people and ensure we can compete in the global race.”

While Mr Cameron emphasises the advantages of being better together – and his Chancellor has firmly ruled out a currency union – the Scottish Government maintains that, if Scotland does vote ‘yes’ in September, a currency union would be the best way forward for both Scotland and the rest of the UK. Scottish Finance Secretary John Swinney says any other settlement would have a ‘devastating impact of debt’ for the rest of the UK.

In the event if independence The Scottish Government will ‘negotiate with Westminster to agree a fair share of assets and liabilities that is fair, equitable and reflective of Scottish needs and those of the rest of the UK’.

However, following the warnings from academic Prof Christine Bell of Edinburgh University that “if the remainder of the UK keeps the name and status of the UK under international law it keeps its liabilities for the debt”, Mr Swinney has published an analysis of the implications such an approach by the UK Government would have for debt payments for the rest of the UK.

The paper shows that if the UK Government put itself in a position of having to accept all UK debts – which it has already accepted legal liability for – the rest of the UK would be responsible for:

Up to an additional £130 billion of debt,
between £4 billion and £5.5 billion a year in additional interest payments, equivalent to increasing the basic rate of income tax in the rest of the UK by one pence.

Finance Secretary John Swinney said: “The Scottish Government has consistently proposed that following a vote for independence we reach agreement with the rest of the UK on a fair share of assets and liabilities, including the Bank of England which holds a third of UK public sector debt.

“That is the fair, reasonable and responsible approach we continue to put forward. However, people in the rest of the UK deserve to know the logical consequences of the position the Westminster government are taking.

“The Treasury has claimed that the UK would be the continuing state with exclusive access to the role and responsibilities of the Bank of England. If you follow that argument to its logical conclusion then it is also responsible for the entire debt liability – which could mean the rest of the UK taking on additional debts of up to £130 billion.

“That would result in debt servicing costs of the rest of the United Kingdom increasing by between £4 billion and £5.5 billion each year – a devastating impact which would be the equivalent of increasing the basic rate of income tax by one pence.

“That would represent a significant and unnecessary cost to taxpayers in England, Wales and Northern Ireland when, as part of the proposals we have put forward, an independent Scotland would be quite happy to pay our fair share of UK debts as part of negotiated arrangements, which would include participation in a Sterling zone

“This is just one of the reasons, alongside the costs that rejecting a currency area would impose on business in the rest of the UK, that the Treasury will drop this bluff and bluster the minute the campaign is over.”

YES campaign comes to Craigroyston

Yes Edinburgh North & Leith and Yes Edinburgh West are hosting a community event to present the case for a ‘Yes’ vote in the forthcoming referendum at Craigroyston Community High School tomorrow (Thursday) evening at 7.30pm.

Confirmed speakers are Fiona Hyslop MSP, Robin McAlpine (Reid Foundation), Michelle Thomson (Women4Independence) and SSP national co-spokesperson Colin Fox, and the event – which includes a question and answer and discussion session – will be chaired by former Lothian Region Council leader (and former Pilton Partnership manager) John Mulvey.

All welcome, doors open 7.15pm.

While the Craigroyston event will focus on the case for a YES vote on 18 September, the Better Together campaign advances the argument for a different future for Scotland. To find out more about the case for staying together and information about local events and activities, visit the Better Together Edinburgh Facebook page or go to www.bettertogether.net

Independence white paper: Seconds out, round two

‘Rarely have so many words been used to answer so little’

Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael says the independence white paper is a ‘wish list not a price list’ and has called on the Scottish Government to share their figures for the cost of independence with the Scottish people.

Meanwhile First Minister Alex Salmond has said that enhanced childcare entitlement, one of the key commitments of the independence mission statement, would only be possible in an independent Scotland.

MSPs will debate the white paper at Holyrood this afternoon.

The 670 page independence white paper provides no answers on crucial questions like currency, pensions and the cost of independence, Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael said.

‘Rarely have so many words been used to answer so little’, said Mr Carmichael following the publication of the paper.

He also expressed disappointment that the Scottish Government had deliberately sought to ignore the uncertainties and difficulties of independence. He said it was astonishing that the Scottish Government had refused to put a price tag on independence even though their private cabinet paper had discussed costs.

Mr Carmichael said: “This was their chance to level with people. They have chosen a different path and people will judge them on that.

“For years we have been promised that all the answers on independence would be in the white paper. The big day has finally arrived and we have 670 pages that leaves us none the wiser on crucial questions such as currency, pensions and the cost of independence. Rarely have so many words been used to answer so little.

“People will draw their own conclusions that the Scottish Government have deliberately sought to ignore the uncertainties and difficulties of independence. We are simply expected to believe that everything will be perfect after we leave the UK. We are asked to accept that ending a 300 year United Kingdom will be straightforward. We are told it will all be alright on the night.

“We know that the terms of independence would need to be negotiated with many countries including the rest of the UK and the EU. An honest assessment of the challenges and uncertainties of leaving the UK would have seriously helped the debate between now and September. Instead we have been given a wish with no price list. Today was their chance to level with people. They have chosen a different path and people in Scotland will judge them on that.

“It is astonishing that the Scottish Government can sit in private discussing the costs of independence and then refuse to share those figure with the Scottish people. John Swinney’s leaked paper said it would cost £600m every year to run an independent tax system but today we saw nothing about that.

“It looks more and more like the Scottish Government will continue to keep these things private. If they had convincing answers then today really would have been the day to share them with everyone. From now until September 18th we will keep making the positive case for the UK. It works well for Scotland. It gives us the best of both worlds. It offers us a better future. We will fight hard to preserve it against those who have been obsessed with independence for their entire political lives but now seek to disguise it.”

‘transformational change in childcare’

Improved childcare entitlements is one of the most eye-catching sections in the white paper – and would be very popular – but some critics have suggested that the Scottish Government could act now to improve childcare and need not wait for independence.

The Scottish Government says families will save up to an estimated £4,600 per child, per year under plans to extend childcare to every child from the age of one. The proposed entitlement in an independent Scotland is for 30 hours of childcare each week – the same number of hours as a child in school.

The move would benefit around 240,000 children, 212,000 families and has the additional benefit of allowing more women to return to work by removing the barrier of childcare costs.

Implementation would be phased and the proposal will see the workforce expand in line with the hours, creating up to 35,000 jobs in the childcare sector, mainly for women.

The Holyrood government says independence offers the opportunity to bring in this proposal as tax revenues generated by more women returning to work will stay in Scotland. Under devolution, increases in tax revenues – and savings from reduced benefits claims – go to Westminster.

Speaking ahead of a debate on ‘Scotland’s Future – Your Guide to an Independent Scotland’ in the Scottish Parliament, First Minister Alex Salmond said:

“Independence would enable us to bring about a transformational change in childcare. The early years are the most crucial years in a child’s development. Our plan will provide high quality childcare that is both flexible and affordable for parents.

“Our current childcare costs are lower than the rest of the UK but every working family with children knows it is a real burden on the family finances. Improving access to quality childcare will not just benefit children – it will help many more women into work.

“At the moment, without all the powers of independence, we have managed to prioritise childcare and are increasing the number of hours from 412.5 to 600.

“Independence offers us the powers to go much further. If we matched, for example, the female labour market participation of Sweden, this would generate an extra £700 million in tax revenue. As we progressively expand childcare, the tax revenue generated would pay for further expansion. Without independence, however, that revenue would leave Scotland, go to Westminster and not be available to fund the further expansion we need.

“With independence, we would keep this revenue here in Scotland to reinvest it in childcare for all, a model we know from countries such as Netherlands works well for children’s development, female participation in the labour market and the wider economy.

“This transformational change in childcare will help give children the best start in life, allow parents to choose to work without worrying about costs and create up to 35,000 new jobs. This is just one of the many opportunities to make Scotland a fairer, more prosperous country through independence.”

‘Scotland’s future is now in Scotland’s hands’

Independence blueprint launched

First Minister Alex Salmond today launched the “most comprehensive blueprint for an independent country ever published ”: Scotland’s Future – Your Guide to an Independent Scotland.

‪‬The guide, which runs to 670 pages and 170,000 words, outlines the shape of the thriving Scotland that will emerge in the event of a vote for independence in next year’s referendum. It also offers a transformational vision of work and social policy, with a revolution in childcare at its heart.

The guide sets out the case for independence and outlines the journey, following a yes vote on September 18 next year, that Scotland will make to independence day on March 24, 2016.

The guide is structured in five parts:

• An overview of the case for independence, including why Scotland needs independence and what a newly independent Scotland will look like.

• A description of the strengths of Scotland’s national finances, a projection of Scotland’s opening financial position at the point of independence and the current Scottish Government’s priorities for the first term of a Scottish Parliament if elected in the May 2016 elections.

• A detailed analysis of the changes needed across Scotland, the opportunities that independence provides for any future Scottish government to make those changes, and the particular priorities for action identified by this government.

• The timescale and process for Scotland to become an independent country following a yes vote; the transition that will take place and the negotiations and agreements that will be required. It also sets out the opportunities for a modern democracy with a written constitution and describes how equality and human rights will be protected and promoted.

• The answers to 650 detailed questions about the opportunities and practicalities of independence.

The guide, published today, includes details of the savings that can be made with independence, including half a billion pounds on defence spending and savings from no longer contributing to the funding of the Westminster Parliament.

It also outlines the Scottish Government’s policies on issues such as currency, international representation – including independent and equal membership of the European Union – citizenship, defence and security, the harnessing of Scotland’s natural resources for the benefit of current and future generations and the fiscal levers necessary to grow the Scottish economy.

The guide also details a range of polices that would be introduced if the current Scottish Government is elected to be the government of an independent Scotland, including:‬

• A transformation in childcare, helping more women into work and providing up to 35,000 jobs.
• A safe, triple-locked pension that meets Scotland’s needs and puts more money in the pockets of our pensioners.
• A guaranteed minimum wage that rises alongside the cost of living to make sure the lowest paid get a fair wage for a fair days work.
• Basic rate tax allowances and tax credits that will also rise at least in line with inflation.
• A change to the way ‘green levies’ are paid for – saving families around £70 a year on their energy bills.
• A fairer welfare system, including a halt to the rollout of Universal Credit and the abolition of the ‘Bedroom Tax’. ‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬
• A productivity and competitive boost to secure the position of Scottish business.

The First Minister said:

“This is the most comprehensive blueprint for an independent country ever published, not just for Scotland but for any prospective independent nation.‬‬‬
“But more than that, it is a mission statement and a prospectus for the kind of country we should be and which this Government believes we can be.

“Our vision is of an independent Scotland regaining its place as an equal member of the family of nations – however, we do not seek independence as an end in itself, but rather as a means to changing Scotland for the better.

“We know we have the people, the skills and resources to make Scotland a more successful country. What we need now are the economic tools and powers to build a more competitive, dynamic economy and create more jobs.

“This guide contains policies which offer nothing less than a revolution in employment and social policy for Scotland, with a transformational change in childcare at the heart of those plans. Our proposals will make it far easier for parents to balance work and family life and will allow many more people, especially women, to move into the workforce, fostering economic growth and helping to boost revenues – which will in itself help pay for the policy.

“With these policies, we can begin the job of undoing the damage caused by the vast social disparities which have seen the UK become one of the most unequal societies in the developed world.

“And we believe it is only with the powers of Independence – by completing the powers of our national Parliament – that we will gain the tools we need to create a more prosperous and fairer society.”

Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said:

“We want as many people as possible across Scotland to read the guide and make up their own minds about Scotland’s future. This is an incredibly thorough and detailed guide, which includes 650 questions about an independent Scotland – and delivers on the answers.

“When it comes to social equality, health, quality of life and economic performance, Scotland has too often lagged behind the performance of our near neighbours across Northern Europe – many of them countries of similar size to Scotland.

“We know that Scotland has huge natural resources and enormous talent among our communities and our workforce – but only independence will give us the ability to make the most of our potential. This is an unprecedented chance to transform our country for the better. Our employment and social policy proposals contained in this guide, including the revolution in childcare, show what is possible.

“It illustrates how the powers of independence can be used to benefit individuals, families, communities and the nation as a whole – and it has economic growth, jobs and fairness at its heart. This is the only detailed plan for Scotland’s future, and today’s publication marks a decisive shift in the debate on what that future should be.”

Opponents of independence were, not unsurprisingly, unimpressed. Better Together leader Alistair Darling MP said:

“The white paper is a work of fiction. It is thick with false promises and
meaningless assertions. Instead of a credible and costed plan, we have a
wish-list of political promises without any answers on how Alex Salmond would
pay for them.”

And Scotland Office minister Alistair Carmichael has warned that an independent Scotland would face many uncertainties.

In a statement, the Scottish Office said:

‘The Scottish Government claim that a currency union between Scotland and the rest of the UK would be in the interests of both. This is wrong.

A currency union may not be in the interests of either Scotland or the rest of the UK. This has been shown by both the UK Government’s analysis and independent experts.

The Chancellor and the Chief Secretary, the Shadow Chancellor and former Chancellors, have all said that it is highly unlikely that a currency union could be agreed or be made to work.

Here is a reminder of the problems:

A currency union is not in Scotland’s or the UK’s interests because:

Currency unions don’t work without close political and fiscal integration, whereas independence is about disintegration: the lesson of the euro area crisis is clear – currency unions are very difficult without fiscal or political union, and can expose all their members to significant risks. Euro area countries are moving towards closer political and fiscal union to address these challenges.
The Scottish Government are proposing the exact opposite – currency union without fiscal or political union. And independence would inevitably mean the continuing UK and Scotland moving further apart. This is hardly a credible basis for a monetary union Divergence of our economies: the economies of an independent Scotland and the UK would be very different, and would diverge over time. This is particularly because Scotland would have a significant dependence on North Sea oil. Changes in the oil price would therefore affect the countries differently and a one-size fits all monetary policy would not suit both.

A currency union is not in an independent Scotland’s interests because:

Constraints on an independent Scotland’s economic policies: even if it could be agreed, a formal currency union would severely limit an independent Scotland’s economic freedom – to ensure that risks to the rest of the UK were managed an independent Scotland would not be able to set its own interest rates and would have to accept the rest of the UK having oversight of its tax and spending plans as is increasingly the case in the euro area.
Economic resilience and credibility: if financial markets sensed that the Bank of England’s monetary policy did not suit Scottish circumstances they might doubt both countries’ commitment to the currency union. Financial market speculation could lead to capital flight and higher interest rates. Ultimately, if markets weren’t calmed, Scotland might have to adopt its own currency in a time of crisis – as happened when the UK left the ERM and as happened 33 days after the Czech Republic and Slovakia separated from one another.

A currency union is not in the UK’s interests because:

Giving up economic sovereignty: Joining a currency union with another state would involve the UK giving up some of its sovereignty in monetary and fiscal policy. Why would it agree to this?
Risk of bailout: The continuing UK would comprise around 90 per cent of total GDP in a sterling currency union, with Scotland as 10 per cent. The continuing UK would therefore bear much more risk of having to bail out an independent Scotland if it got into fiscal difficulties.
Why take the risk? Negotiating a sterling currency union would be far more important for an independent Scotland than for the continuing UK. The rest of the UK accounts for 70% of Scotland’s total trade, whereas Scotland accounts for 10% of the UK’s trade. As Carwyn Jones, the First Minister of Wales, has asked, what gain is there to the rest of the UK from having an independent country share its currency, other than uncertainly. It would mean difficult decisions having to be taken across two different governments which is a recipe for instability.

No one should vote for an independent Scotland on the basis that they will get to keep the pound. Independence means leaving the UK’s monetary union and leaving the pound. The only way for Scotland to keep the pound as it is now is to stay in the UK.’

The politicians have had – and will continue to have – their say all the way to referendum voting day on 18 September next year. But ultimately, Scotland’s future is down to YOU.

A copy of ‘Scotland’s Future – Your Guide to an Independent Scotland’ is attached below; you have 295 days, so happy reading!

Scotland_s_Future___blueprint_for_a_fairer_country

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Independence IFS and buts

Think Tank report warns of spending cuts and tax hikes

An independent Scotland would have to cut spending or increase taxes for its finances to be sustainable in the long-term, a leading think tank has warned. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said Scotland would face a ‘fiscal gap’ of 1.9% of national income, more than double that of the rest of the UK (0.8%).

The report says that significant spending cuts or tax increases would be necessary to balance the books.

Better Together campaigners say the report leaves the economic argument for independence ‘in tatters’ but Scottish Finance Secretary John Swinney believes the report actually underlines the case for an independent Scotland.

The 69 page ‘Fiscal sustainability of an independent Scotland’ (attached below) concludes:

‘An independent Scotland would have the freedom to make its own decisions about spending priorities and the appropriate design of the tax system, but it would be constrained by the necessity to deliver a significant cut in spending and/or increase in tax revenues in order to put its public finances in a sustainable long-term position’.‘

Speaking after the publication of the report earlier today, Alistair Darling, leader of the pro-Union Better Together campaign, said: “This sober and impartial analysis by the IFS leaves the SNP’s economic case for independence in tatters. SNP ministers pretend that in an independent Scotland there would be more money to spend, but that notion has been comprehensively demolished by the analysis from this respected institution. Today’s report is clear that an independent Scotland would need big cuts to things like pensions, benefits and the NHS or a big increase in tax.”

Not so, say supporters of independence. Commenting on the IFS report, Mr Swinney said: “This report actually underlines the case for an independent Scotland with full control of its own economy and the ability to take decisions that can secure a stronger and more prosperous future for the country.

“It is no surprise that projections based on the UK’s economic position show a long-term deficit when the OBR state that the UK’s economic strategy is “unsustainable” and that the UK will run a fiscal deficit in each of the next 50 years.

“The IFS themselves admit their projections in this report are ‘inherently uncertain and could evolve differently if Scotland were independent rather than part of the UK; in addition they could be substantially effected by the policies chosen by the government of an independent Scotland’.

“The whole point of independence is to equip Scotland with the competitive powers we need to make the most of our vast natural resources and human talent and to follow a better path from the current Westminster system which stifles growth and which is responsible for the damaging economic decisions which this report – and its projections – are based on.

“Scotland has strong financial and economic foundations, and even without a single penny from oil and gas, both output and tax revenues per head in Scotland are virtually the same as for the UK.

“Next year’s independence referendum will give people in Scotland a choice between staying with a broken Westminster system that has created one of the biggest gaps between rich and poor in the western world, which concentrates far too many jobs in London and the South-East of England, has accumulated vast amounts of debt and which neglects manufacturing and trade – or using the full tools of independence to rebalance the economy, improve equality and support public services.

“Between 1977 and 2007, smaller independent European countries similar to Scotland grew their economies faster than ours, and if we had matched those rates that greater output would now be the equivalent of around £4.5 billion.

“Tomorrow the Scottish Government will publish detailed analysis of the economic security, growth and job opportunities that come with the powers of independence and by taking Scotland’s future into Scotland’s hands.”

IFS report

Referendum Bill is passed

The Bill to allow the people of Scotland to choose whether Scotland should be an independent country has been passed by Holyrood.

MSPs voted in favour of the Scottish Independence Referendum Bill following a final debate on the legislation this afternoon.
The Bill confirms that:

The people of Scotland will vote in a referendum on September 18^th next year on the question: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”
The vote will be run to the highest international standards and will be overseen by the independent Electoral Commission.
The vote will be preceded by a 16-week formal campaign period.
The referendum will be conducted under the direction of a Chief Counting Officer responsible for appointing local Counting Officers to run the poll in local areas.

Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said:

“This is a truly historic moment in Scotland’s national story. It means that in September next year the people of Scotland will be asked whether they want this country to be independent.

“This Government believes independence will benefit everyone in this nation, and that having decisions taken here by the people who live and work here will help us create a fairer and more prosperous society.

“Later this month, we will publish the White Paper on independence, outlining in great detail the benefits and opportunities of having decisions made here in Scotland, for Scotland.

“The Edinburgh Agreement confirmed that next September’s referendum should be legislated for by the Scottish Parliament and that it should be conducted so as to command the confidence of parliaments, governments and people.

“With today’s vote, Holyrood has fulfilled that objective. It is a strong message that, whatever our political differences, we have agreed the rules and the procedure to be followed in the referendum. “I hope we can continue in this spirit as we make our case for either outcome by committing to engage in a constructive and respectful debate.

“People want to know what the gains of independence will be for their families and communities. We already take decisions here on a wide range of devolved issues, and these have led to real gains for communities all across Scotland. Independence is the next logical step in Scotland’s Home Rule journey, and the passing of this Bill will allow people to have that choice.

“Independence is not about this administration but about the right of the people of Scotland to choose a Government of our own.”

Letter: Offensive, Darling – bitter together

Dear Editor

I find it offensive that Alister Darling thinks that Scotland is not capable of self-government or of being a nation with full powers. How come small nations similar to Scotland can gain their independence and be successful, look after their people and economy without their neighbours ?

Lets look at what “Better Together ” has really done for Scotland. It has destroyed coal mining and ship building . It has given away our forests to the highest bidder,and our fisheries were sold down the river. Our whisky is taxed to the hilt . Gas, electricity,water and now the Royal Mail have all been privatised,but not for the benefit of ordinary people. Our hospitals ,schools and care homes can’t cope because budgets are cut year in, year out .

Scotland’s oil has been squandered to the extent that Mr Darling and his ilk say it’s running out, yet we are assured by experts there are still ample oil reserves. Denis Healey admitted to the people of Scotland that they were lied to in the 1970s about the oil supply running out then. New oil fields are being opened daily , weekly, monthly.

Under “Better Together ” Scotland has nothing – it all goes to Westminster! Our old , young unemployed , disabled , vulnerable are being driven into deeper poverty by a ‘better together’ UK Great Britain, whether you are a Tory, Labour or Lib/Dem.

As for George Osbourne telling the Scottish nation that should we get independence we would not be able to use the pound sterling? Have any Scottish people tried to exchange Scottish monetary notes in England ? It’s near impossible!

Another myth is having to use a Scottish passport to travel to England? Passports are not required to travel to the Republic of Eire. Yes identification is required but not necessary a passport.

As for defence Better Together have used their savage cuts to the MOD therefore Scotland has seen their regiments disappear. Teresa May’s recent comment that Scotland would be a target for terrorism. Scotland has been attacked once . We are more than capable of defending our country. How many times has England been attacked? Go back to the 1970s and as recent as the London bombings in 2012.

Any other nations who have gained their independence have never asked to be returned to their original countries.If the people of Scotland want more welfare cuts, ruled from Westminster, job losses, and unfair treatment of our nation , then I dare you never to be poor, ill, young, unemployed or old.

The Better Together campaign are scaremongering our nation. Scottish people have to realise that in the referendum we are NOT voting for any political party but to have the right to rule our own country . All I have heard from political parties has been the back stabbing of Alex Salmond for suggesting we can achieve independence . Joanne Lamont is one of the worst offenders. Having listen to her at the Labour Party Conference she put down Alex Salmond 23 times . ” Better Together “? More like “Bitter Together!”

Finally just to inform people I do NOT vote SNP – however I do want independence.

Stand up, Scotland and be a proud nation!

Anna Hutchison (by email)

Scotland and the UK: safer together?

Threats to Scotland and the UK from organised crime gangs, cyber criminals and global terrorism are best confronted with Scotland inside the UK, Home Secretary Theresa May claimed today. However ‘Yes’ campaigners have been quick to challenge the Home Secretary’s analysis and say that Scotland will continue to work closely with international partners on security issues.

The Home Secretary (pictured below) was in Edinburgh to launch ‘Scotland analysis: Security’, the seventh in a series of UK government papers to inform the debate ahead of next year’s independence referendum.

The paper examines how the UK and Scotland derive mutual benefit from an integrated approach to security, cyber, justice and policing, as well as from security exports and our international alliances and relationships.

The possible consequences for both Scotland and the continuing UK of a vote for independence are subject to analysis in the paper. It stresses that while the UK does work with other countries, such as the Republic of Ireland, to improve security and fight organised crime, there is a significant difference between these relationships and Scotland’s current position as a privileged and influential part of the UK.

The analysis concludes that independence could disturb the united protection provided to Scotland by the UK’s security and intelligence architecture. The report suggests:

Scotland facing a technically complex and expensive requirement to establish its security infrastructure. In the meantime, there would be a risk to both Scotland and the continuing UK of diminished security.
Scotland no longer being covered by the UK’s National Cyber Security Programme, which strengthens the services the public rely on and makes the UK a safer place for businesses to operate.
Co-operation between Police Scotland and other UK forces may not be as straightforward as it is now. Long established UK-wide laws make it easier to pursue justice across borders despite different legal systems and police jurisdictions.
A limit to the amount of information the continuing UK would be able to share with Scotland. Under the “Control Principle”, the UK could not share the kind of information used to fight and counter terrorism with Scotland, passed to it by another country, unless the UK had that country’s consent.

Home Secretary Theresa May said:

“This report sets out in plain terms the security consequences of independence, not just for Scotland but for the UK as a whole. Undoubtedly we are stronger and safer together.

“The national security risks the UK faces are complex and changing. Terrorists and organised criminals will seek new ways to exploit any weakness in our justice and policing capabilities, and the scale of emerging threats, such as cyber crime, demands a comprehensively resourced response.

Now is the time to work more closely together for the security of all citizens of the UK.”

The UK government believes that Scotland is better off as part of the UK, and that the UK is stronger, safer and more secure with Scotland as part of it.

In the event of a vote in favour of leaving the UK, Scotland would become an entirely new state and would have to establish its own security arrangements.

However, supporters of independence have been quick to refute the Home Secretary’s claims. The Scottish government said that, in the event of independence, Scotland would work closely with the rest of the UK and international partners on security and intelligence matters.

Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill (pictured above) told the BBC: “These claims are wrong – not least because Scotland is already an independent jurisdiction when it comes to policing and justice issues, and current cross-border cooperation shows how well that can work to combat terrorism and other threats.

“An independent Scotland will have first-rate security arrangements to counter any threats we may face. And we will continue to work in very close collaboration with the rest of the UK and international partners on security and intelligence matters, which is in everyone’s interests.”

RIOT! Radical roadshow arrives in North Edinburgh

The Radical Independence on Tour roadshow will be stopping off at North Edinburgh Arts Centre tonight at 7pm in the first of a series of ‘community assemblies’.

Speakers include Jean Urquahart MSP, John Finnie MSP, Green councillor Maggie Chapman and community activist Fraser Young.

All welcome.

The gloves are off: Osborne and Swinney in fight over money

In the latest of what promises to be a long series of cross-border skirmishes two political heavyweights squared up to each other over Scotland’s future currency yesterday. In the red (white and blue) corner we had Westminster’s George Osborne while in the blue (and white) we had Holyrood’s John Swinney.

Old Etonian ‘Gentleman George’ Osborne is well versed in the Marquis of Queensberry Rules but ‘Slugger’ Swinney is a capable street scrapper; in a bruising contest of contrasting styles neither fighter landed a knock out blow, so there’s sure to be a rematch soon. And it’s no clearer whether we’ll be spending pounds, euros or even dollars here in Scotland after next year’s referendum

Scotland_currency_IG

The clash came following the publication of a report on Scotland’s currency and monetary policy, helpfully produced by the Westminster government to ‘inform the debate on Scotland’s constitutional future’, launched by Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander in Glasgow yesterday.

The report reviews how the current UK currency and monetary policy arrangements work and examines the options in the event of independence. The analysis sets out in detail the advantages and disadvantages of the potential currency options open to an independent Scotland, including: a formal sterling currency union with the continuing United Kingdom; using sterling unilaterally, with no formal agreement; joining the euro; or introducing a new Scottish currency.

The paper concludes that none of the options under independence would serve Scotland as well as the current arrangements in the United Kingdom, which is one of the most successful monetary, fiscal and political unions in history.

All of the alternative currency arrangements would be likely to be less economically suitable for both Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

Speaking during his Glasgow visit Chancellor George Osborne (pictured above) said it would be a “very deep dive into uncharted waters” if an independent Scotland kept the pound in a currency pact with the UK, and added that there was no guarantee that the UK and Scotland would be able to come to an agreement on a currency union. That would mean a separate Scotland was left with three options – unilaterally keeping the pound, creating a Scottish currency or joining the euro.

Mr Osborne said: “All of these alternative currency arrangements are less suitable economically than we have now for both Scotland and the rest of the UK. The fundamental political question this analysis provokes is this – why would 58 million citizens give away some of their sovereignty over monetary and potentially other economic policy to five million people in another state?

He added: “Let’s be clear – abandoning current arrangements would represent a very deep dive indeed into uncharted waters. Would a newly independent Scottish state be prepared to accept significant limits on it’s economic sovereignty? To submit it’s economic plans to Westminster before Holyrood? The only way to be sure of keeping the pound as Scotland’s currency is to stay in the UK.”

However the Scottish Government has commissioned it’s own study and believes that a Sterling zone monetary union is the best option for an independent Scotland.

The Scottish Government’s currency paper, also published yesterday, fully endorses the findings of the Fiscal Commission Working Group’s expert report that as an independent country in a Sterling zone Scotland would have the powers needed to exploit areas of comparative advantage and also tackle those areas where we need to improve performance.

Scottish Government – Currency

Commenting on the paper, Finance Secretary John Swinney (pictured below) said: “A Sterling zone, with the pound as a shared currency will provide the full flexibility to set tax and spending decisions to target key opportunities and challenges in Scotland.

“The sharing of the pound between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK is the common sense position supported by the Fiscal Commission. A sterling zone is also in the overwhelming economic interests of the rest of the UK every bit as much as it is in the interests of Scotland. An independent Scotland using the pound will mean Sterling’s balance of payments will be massively supported by Scotland’s huge assets, including North Sea oil and gas – which alone swelled the UK’s balance of payments by £40 billion in 2011-12.

“The Fiscal Commission Working Group includes two Nobel Laureates, and their expert report – having examined several possible currency options – concluded that sharing Sterling with the rest of the UK is the best option, offering freedom and flexibility for Scotland to develop our own taxation and spending policies to boost growth and address inequality. At present, the Scottish Parliament controls just seven per cent of Scotland’s revenue base, and that would only increase to 15 per cent under the terms of the Scotland Act. With independence, Scotland will control 100 per cent of our revenues, which is what it needs to be to build a stronger economy and fairer society.‪

“The combination – which only comes with independence – of keeping the pound, accessing Scotland’s abundant resources, and taking decisions on tax and other economic policies that are right for Scotland, is the best way to boost jobs and growth.

‪“Scotland’s finances are consistently stronger than the UK’s – generating more revenue per head than the rest of the UK in each one of the past 30 years – and Scotland has had a lower fiscal deficit than the UK over the past five years. With the additional economic levers that independence will provide, and the up to £1.5 trillion asset base provided by Scotland’s oil and gas reserves, an independent Scotland will stand on a strong financial footing.

“Next year’s vote is the choice between unlocking the opportunities independence will open up or continuing to allow economic and welfare policy to be set by a Westminster system that isn’t working for Scotland.”

A deep dive into uncharted waters, or unlocking opportunities? Ultimately, you’ll decide next autumn.