Gloves come off over currency union

A currency union in the event of a vote for independence ‘would not be in the interests of either the people of Scotland or the remaining UK’, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne told an Edinburgh audience on Thursday. Unsurprisingly his claims have been rubbished by supporters of independence, but while the two sides disagree over currency union, one thing is clear – the gloves are well and truly off …

Mr Osborne’s speech follows official Treasury advice that in the event of independence they would not recommend a currency union to the Government of the continuing UK, and in an unusual departure from procedure he also published the advice he received from the Treasury Permanent Secretary on whether to join a currency union should Scotland become independent.

Speaking at the Point Hotel on Thursday, the Chancellor said: “I hope passionately that the people of Scotland choose to stay within our family of nations in the United Kingdom. I want Scotland to keep the pound and the economic security that it brings. But it is clear to me I could not as Chancellor recommend that we could share the pound with an independent Scotland. The evidence shows it wouldn’t work. It would cost jobs and cost money and wouldn’t provide economic security for Scotland or for the rest of the UK.I don’t think any other Chancellor of the Exchequer would come to a different view.

“The Scottish government says that if Scotland becomes independent there will be a currency union and Scotland will share the pound. People need to know – that is not going to happen.”

The Treasury also published the detailed analysis on the economics of a currency union which underpins its advice to the Chancellor. The paper states that while the United Kingdom is one of the most successful monetary, fiscal and political unions in history, the fiscal and financial risks of entering into a currency union with a separate Scottish state would be too great.

The analysis states:

UK is a successful union because taxation, spending, monetary policy and financial stability policy are coordinated across the whole UK, with risks pooled and clear political accountability

Scotland’s economy would be more exposed in the event of independence, with greater risks from shocks in the financial and energy sectors
in a currency union, the continuing UK would be exposed to much greater risk from a separate Scotland, with the possibility of continuing UK taxpayers being asked to support that state in the event of a fiscal or financial shock
if people in Scotland vote for independence, the Treasury would advise the continuing UK Government against entering into a currency union with an independent Scotland

The Chancellor’s view was supported by the finance spokespersons of both the other main Westminster parties.

The announcement was also welcomed by the Better Together campaign. Former Chancellor Alistair Darling, who leads the campaign, said: “If we vote to leave the UK in September, Scotland will not be able to keep the pound. That is the message Scotland must keep in mind when deciding how to vote. This was the day on which Alex Salmond’s bluff and bluster about independence came face to face with reality.

“Why would taxpayers in England want to bail out the banks of what would be a foreign country? Why would a continuing UK Treasury accept a veto from what would be a foreign government over tax, spending and borrowing?

“And why would Scotland agree to have its budget subject to a veto by the rest of the UK? That’s how a currency union works. You only have to look at the problems of the eurozone to see that. It makes little sense. Yet everything about the First Minister’s case for breaking up the UK rests on keeping the pound. The jobs of thousands of Scots in our financial services industry depend on using the pound. Without the pound, all of these are at risk. That is a big gamble we simply don’t have to take.”

The Better Together campaign called on Yes Scotland to explain what currency Scotland would use if we vote to leave the UK – would we join the euro, or maybe even set up a new, separate currency? Put simply, if yer no’ gettin’ the pound, what’s your Plan B?

Calling for clarity, Better Together campaign director Blair McDougall said:

“The nationalists have been in chaos on currency over the last few days. Alex Salmond is a man without a plan. First he says we will keep the Pound, even though it is now clearly off the table. Now Yes Scotland tell us we can keep the Pound without a formal agreement, even though the SNP’s own Fiscal Commission Working Group ruled this out. And Patrick Harvie, a Yes Scotland board member, today said that Alex Salmond needs to set out an alternative to the Pound.

“It is time they got their line straight. If Plan B really is the Panama plan that would mean if something like the collapse of RBS happened again a crisis would become a disaster in an independent Scotland.

“Leaving the UK and losing the Pound would mean higher mortgage repayments, more expensive credit card bills and a big risk to thousands of jobs in our financial services industry. Alex Salmond is gambling with the livelihoods of the people of Scotland.

“The message from those of us who support Scotland remaining in the UK is very simple – a vote for separation is a vote to lose the Pound. The only way to keep the Pound is to stay in the UK.”

However, supporters of independence have cast doubt on the Chancellor’s assertions. First Minister Alex Salmond accused Mr Osborne of ‘bluff, bluster and bullying’ and former Labour Scottish First Minister Henry McLeish also expressed concern over Osborne’s ‘misguided’ intervention, saying the Chancellor’s heavy-handed tactics could push more Scots into voting Yes.

Mr McLeish said: “He is basically saying vote yes and we won’t allow you to join a currency union. We will withdraw any goodwill and sacrifice the best interests of Scotland, England, Northern Ireland and Wales.

“Do we really believe that would be the response if Scotland voted to exit the Union? I don’t think so. Wisdom and sanity would return. It would help if the Union would spell out their vision, provide an alternative to independence and offer a bit more carrot and less stick to Scots voters.

“Let’s remember that Osborne’s party want to take us out of the EU. It is the Union that is on trial, not Scotland. Creating a currency union is first and foremost a political decision, not a financial or technical one.

The UK and Scotland would have to settle the politics of this in their respective parliaments or at the polls, so the people of England, Wales and Northern Ireland could have a say in this significant decision.”

Scottish Finance Secretary John Swinney maintains that an independent Scotland will continue to use the pound as it is in the best interests of Scotland and the rest of the UK .

Responding to the Chancellor’s comments on a currency union, the Finance Secretary said that the Treasury analysis has been developed without any discussion with the Scottish Government – and without acknowledging the independent expert work of the Fiscal Commission Working Group (FCWG).

The Scottish Government last year published comprehensive analysis of the different currency options available to an independent Scotland. This analysis by the Fiscal Commission Working Group, consisting of four pre-eminent economists including two Nobel laureates, considered the full range of options and concluded that a monetary union would be in the best interests of Scotland and the rest of the UK.

The Fiscal Commission provided advice on:

Banking union
Risk sharing
Monetary and exchange rate policy
Duration of a currency union

The HM Treasury has had no discussion with the Scottish Government on any of these points.

Responding to the Chancellor’s comments, Mr Swinney said:

“We welcome the opportunity to continue the debate with the Chancellor on the merits of our proposals on a currency union.

“However the Chancellor made clear his conclusions on currency union were based on the advice of Treasury officials. That advice is incomplete and with regard to the size of the Scottish financial sector and operation of monetary unions is backward looking and takes no account of the comprehensive evidence provided by the independent economic experts of the Fiscal Commission, including two Nobel laureates, Professor James Mirrlees and Professor Joseph Stiglitz.

“On every one of the four points the Chancellor rehearsed today, the FCWG have already published comprehensive advice and analysis and their proposed macroeconomic framework is a workable model that would ensure financial stability and allow both governments autonomy over economic and social policies, including fiscal policy. In addition the Governor of the Bank of England has confirmed the Bank will deliver a currency union if agreed by both Governments.

“On the banking union: no country should have to bail out banks again. Across the EU and UK recent regulation has been designed to break the link between taxpayers and banks. The Treasury hugely overstates the size of the banking sector in Scotland which is in line with the rest of the UK. It is the City of London which is hugely reliant on the financial services sector, accounting for 50 per cent of UK financial services GVA. A banking union with an independent Scotland is in the interests of the rest of the UK as the sector benefits from integrated trade.

“On fiscal risk sharing: Scotland’s fiscal position is stronger than that of the UK. An independent Scotland would have had the opportunity to spend more, tax less, invest in an oil fund and still borrow proportionally less than the UK. The Fiscal Commission proposition ensures a harmonised system for financial regulation and resolution of banks. Scotland would take its fair share of responsibility recognising that ‘both Scotland and the UK have a shared interest in ensuring financial stability’.

“On monetary and exchange rate policy: Scotland would have full fiscal and economic freedom to set taxes and economic policy, as has been shown by many countries in the different currency unions which have operated internationally.

“And on permanence; all Sovereign states have the ability to determine currency arrangements that are appropriate for their circumstances. That is not a barrier to successful currency unions.

“The model proposed by the Fiscal Commission Working Group has not been considered and the Chancellor’s statement today is political and completely counter to the spirit of the Edinburgh Agreement, which commits both Governments to working in the best interests of both countries whatever the result of the referendum.

“If the UK Government is to honour its commitment to the terms of the Edinburgh Agreement, the discussion that the Chancellor has entered into today must be informed by the best evidence available. The Fiscal Commission have recommended early engagement between the Scottish and UK Government to properly address these critical issues. The gaps in the Chancellor’s analysis demonstrates the force of that recommendation.”

So there you have the two sides of the currency union divide. The Unionists say it can’t and won’t happen, the Nationalists say it can and it will. Political panic over narrowing poll leads, or a pie in the sky economic gamble?

You pays your money, you takes your choice. For now at least, that money is sterling.

YES campaign comes to Craigroyston

Yes Edinburgh North & Leith and Yes Edinburgh West are hosting a community event to present the case for a ‘Yes’ vote in the forthcoming referendum at Craigroyston Community High School tomorrow (Thursday) evening at 7.30pm.

Confirmed speakers are Fiona Hyslop MSP, Robin McAlpine (Reid Foundation), Michelle Thomson (Women4Independence) and SSP national co-spokesperson Colin Fox, and the event – which includes a question and answer and discussion session – will be chaired by former Lothian Region Council leader (and former Pilton Partnership manager) John Mulvey.

All welcome, doors open 7.15pm.

While the Craigroyston event will focus on the case for a YES vote on 18 September, the Better Together campaign advances the argument for a different future for Scotland. To find out more about the case for staying together and information about local events and activities, visit the Better Together Edinburgh Facebook page or go to www.bettertogether.net

Seasonal food for thought …

Politicians praise voluntary sector efforts to tackle food poverty in struggling communities

The Cabinet Secretary for Finance, Employment and Sustainable Growth John Swinney has praised the essential work of the voluntary sector at Christmas during a tour of Transform Community Development’s new-look Dundee premises.

Through its work with national charity FareShare the Dundee project aims to reduce food poverty and offers training and volunteering opportunities to service users and local people in the community.

During the visit Mr Swinney saw first-hand the efforts of the third sector organisation which provides balanced meals and shelter to homeless and vulnerable people in the city, before going on to tour the Jessie Devlin Hostel, one of Transform’s residential and sheltered housing accommodation for vulnerable people.

He said: “Christmas should be a time for fun and festivities but it can be tough for people across the country who are living in poverty.

“The Scottish Government is committed to tackling and preventing homelessness. Official statistics published last month revealed fewer people are becoming homeless in Scotland, with a 14 per cent decrease of households living in temporary accommodation at the end of June compared with 2013.

“Transform’s work on Zero Waste Scotland’s Love Food Hate Waste campaign complements what they are doing with FareShare as it’s all about making the most of the food we have.

“Social enterprises, voluntary organisations and community organisations play an important part in Scottish society. They deliver superb services and help to connect with the most vulnerable people in our communities, which is especially important during the festive period which can be a particularly difficult time of year.

“It was an honour to meet the people who run and use Transform’s FareShare scheme and sheltered accommodation. Such excellent projects just show how charities can work in partnership with retailers like Asda and cut down on food waste and feed those in need at the same time.”

The charity collects donations of fresh fruit, vegetables, meat and dairy products from suppliers and retailers like Brakes, Nestle and Asda then hands them out to disadvantaged groups in the area.

The food, which would otherwise end up in landfill because of packaging errors, over production or short shelf lives, is redistributed to those in need in Dundee, Perth, Kinross and Angus.

Transform Community Development Trust’s CEO Simon Laidlaw said: “We have been involved with FareShare since it began and are extremely proud of what it achieves.

“In particular in times of austerity and public sector cuts it is good to be able to assist other voluntary organisations, taking some pressure off and enabling them to enhance the services they provide for vulnerable people.

“With food poverty on the increase it makes sense that we should be working with the industry to ensure that no good food goes to waste and that those in need get the benefit.”

Asda’s Scottish Corporate Affairs Manager Polly Jones, said: “With over 60 Asda stores in Scotland, even a couple of extra cases of food here and there can quickly add up to hundreds of tonnes of surplus stock. By working with FareShare we can ensure this good quality food doesn’t go to waste.

“Asda’s contribution provides 3.6 million meals for the good causes FareShare supports, helping to alleviate food poverty and saving the charities money to invest in essential services. The partnership is a simple and practical way for Asda to turn an environmental problem into a real benefit for the communities we serve.”

Edinburgh North and Leith MP has also highlighted the food poverty plight faced by many Scots families over Christmas.

Following a debate in Westminster called by the Labour Opposition on food banks, Mark Lazarowicz MP has highlighted that many ordinary Scots face crisis this Christmas due to the shocking increase in food poverty.

He pointed to the dramatic growth not just in food banks but all forms of help such as food vans and soup kitchens in Edinburgh and the rest of Scotland over the last two years as a response to real need amongst ordinary families struggling to put food on the table.

Speaking after the packed debate, Mark said: “In just two years the number of food banks in Scotland operated by the Trussell Trust, the main food bank charity, has dramatically increased from just one to forty-three today, with two more being planned in Edinburgh alone.

“But that’s just the tip of the iceberg with many other people either going without or getting into debt to get through the week.”

“The Government’s stock response is to point to all it is doing to support ordinary families but if so why has the scale of need grown so rapidly? According to Citizens Advice Scotland, half of those who use food banks are actually in work but their wages can’t keep pace with the cost of living – three-quarters of the rest turn to them because of delays in their benefits or changes to the benefit system introduced by the Government.

“I pay tribute to the civic responsibility and compassion of the volunteers and staff who run food banks and food vans but it’s a tragedy they are needed and needed they definitely are – not least because of Government policy.”

The North & Leith MP called for a thorough examination by the Government of why so many people need help followed by a major policy rethink if Citizens Advice Scotland and the Trussell Trust are proved right that Government policies are a key contributing factor.

At this time last year, the Prime Minister claimed that the growth in food banks was an expression of the big society. More recently, his Education Secretary has suggested that more people are turning to food banks because they are unable to manage their finances properly.

That is not borne out by either the findings of the Trussell Trust or a study produced by Citizens Advice Scotland tracking those they referred to food banks. Both pointed to the difficulty of in-work households in meeting basic bills because of low wages and the rising cost of living coupled with benefit delays and changes to the benefit system introduced by the Government as the main explanations.

Scotland’s Future: Cabinet to answer questions at EICC event

Over 300 people from organisations across civic Scotland will meet in Edinburgh today to put questions to the Cabinet about Scotland’s Future.

The Scottish Government has invited hundreds of people – from large and small businesses, trade unions, the voluntary and public sector, charities and other Scottish organisations to the event at the EICC.

The Scottish Government says it wants to provide as much information as possible to allow people in Scotland to make an informed choice in next year’s referendum. This event will see Cabinet ministers answer any questions Scotland’s key organisations might have about the detail in Scotland’s Future, and any issues they would like more information on.

The event will also be broadcast live online so anyone can watch.

Speaking yesterday, First Minister Alex Salmond said: “The publication of Scotland’s Future marks a significant moment in the referendum campaign as we set out a detailed prospectus for an independent Scotland, providing answers to the host of reasonable questions people have about the what a vote for independence will mean and the opportunities that will flow from that.

“We have a responsibility to provide as much information as possible to the people who will cast their vote in the referendum, allowing them to make an informed choice about the future of their country. This major event, bringing together representatives of Scotland’s key trade union, business, voluntary and public sector bodies, presents an ideal opportunity to do exactly that and my Cabinet colleagues and I are thoroughly looking forward to it.”

Reliance on food banks show that the economy’s not working – Larazowicz

Edinburgh North and Leith MP Mark Lazarowicz says the growing number of families turning to food banks for help is an indictment of the Chancellor’s autumn statement claim that his ‘economic plan is working.’

The MP recently helped local church volunteers from the Leith Food Bank with a food collection at Tesco in Leith. The food collection was organised in conjunction with food bank charity the Trussell Trust and food redistribution charity FareShare. Tesco donated an extra 30% to the food bank, on top of the goods given by customers.

Mark Lazarowicz said: “The Chancellor’s economic plan is certainly not working for the families who will be forced to look to food banks for help this Christmas. Initiatives like this one in Leith show the strength of community spirit here in Edinburgh but it is an indictment that they should be needed at all.

“The Chancellor talked of ‘difficult decisions’ on spending and ‘living within our means’– parents struggling to meet fuel and food bills are all too familiar with that.

“According to Citizens Advice Scotlandhalf of those helped by food banks are in work – they will be much less sure than the Chancellor that the economy is heading in the right direction.”

The North and Leith MP is also backing the campaign by Unite, the Daily Mirror and the Trussell Trust to raise funds for food banks to help families in crisis this Christmas and to call for a Parliamentary debate on the issue.

Leith’s food bank was launched in October as the result of an initiative by local churches – the number of UK Food Banks has trebled since 2009.

Letter: Socialist solution to self-interest

Dear Editor

We are living in a capitalist society where most places of work are privately owned, in which the first priority is to maximise profit. The owners are also free to close down places of work if they feels profits are not enough, regardless of the effect on the workers and their families.

By it’s very nature the capitalist system is based on the owners’ self-interest, whether dealing with national workforces or international workforces.

Modern technology and knowhow is now able to solve the scourge of starvation, poverty and ill-health worldwide, but owners of industries are not willing to set aside their self-interest.

The capitalist system has amassed unbelievable wealth but in the UK cannot or will not solve the problems of jobs, housing, pensions, health, care of the elderly, education and social services. They cannot or will not treat the preventable diseases that kill millions of children worldwide for the sake of the few pence per head needed to do so.

In the knowledge of all this, the arrogance of language and policy used by political supporters in support of capitalism is breathtaking. Replacement of such a useless system is long overdue, being replaced by one working for the benefit of all – SOCIALISM.

A. Delahoy

Silverknowes Gardens

Independence white paper: Seconds out, round two

‘Rarely have so many words been used to answer so little’

Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael says the independence white paper is a ‘wish list not a price list’ and has called on the Scottish Government to share their figures for the cost of independence with the Scottish people.

Meanwhile First Minister Alex Salmond has said that enhanced childcare entitlement, one of the key commitments of the independence mission statement, would only be possible in an independent Scotland.

MSPs will debate the white paper at Holyrood this afternoon.

The 670 page independence white paper provides no answers on crucial questions like currency, pensions and the cost of independence, Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael said.

‘Rarely have so many words been used to answer so little’, said Mr Carmichael following the publication of the paper.

He also expressed disappointment that the Scottish Government had deliberately sought to ignore the uncertainties and difficulties of independence. He said it was astonishing that the Scottish Government had refused to put a price tag on independence even though their private cabinet paper had discussed costs.

Mr Carmichael said: “This was their chance to level with people. They have chosen a different path and people will judge them on that.

“For years we have been promised that all the answers on independence would be in the white paper. The big day has finally arrived and we have 670 pages that leaves us none the wiser on crucial questions such as currency, pensions and the cost of independence. Rarely have so many words been used to answer so little.

“People will draw their own conclusions that the Scottish Government have deliberately sought to ignore the uncertainties and difficulties of independence. We are simply expected to believe that everything will be perfect after we leave the UK. We are asked to accept that ending a 300 year United Kingdom will be straightforward. We are told it will all be alright on the night.

“We know that the terms of independence would need to be negotiated with many countries including the rest of the UK and the EU. An honest assessment of the challenges and uncertainties of leaving the UK would have seriously helped the debate between now and September. Instead we have been given a wish with no price list. Today was their chance to level with people. They have chosen a different path and people in Scotland will judge them on that.

“It is astonishing that the Scottish Government can sit in private discussing the costs of independence and then refuse to share those figure with the Scottish people. John Swinney’s leaked paper said it would cost £600m every year to run an independent tax system but today we saw nothing about that.

“It looks more and more like the Scottish Government will continue to keep these things private. If they had convincing answers then today really would have been the day to share them with everyone. From now until September 18th we will keep making the positive case for the UK. It works well for Scotland. It gives us the best of both worlds. It offers us a better future. We will fight hard to preserve it against those who have been obsessed with independence for their entire political lives but now seek to disguise it.”

‘transformational change in childcare’

Improved childcare entitlements is one of the most eye-catching sections in the white paper – and would be very popular – but some critics have suggested that the Scottish Government could act now to improve childcare and need not wait for independence.

The Scottish Government says families will save up to an estimated £4,600 per child, per year under plans to extend childcare to every child from the age of one. The proposed entitlement in an independent Scotland is for 30 hours of childcare each week – the same number of hours as a child in school.

The move would benefit around 240,000 children, 212,000 families and has the additional benefit of allowing more women to return to work by removing the barrier of childcare costs.

Implementation would be phased and the proposal will see the workforce expand in line with the hours, creating up to 35,000 jobs in the childcare sector, mainly for women.

The Holyrood government says independence offers the opportunity to bring in this proposal as tax revenues generated by more women returning to work will stay in Scotland. Under devolution, increases in tax revenues – and savings from reduced benefits claims – go to Westminster.

Speaking ahead of a debate on ‘Scotland’s Future – Your Guide to an Independent Scotland’ in the Scottish Parliament, First Minister Alex Salmond said:

“Independence would enable us to bring about a transformational change in childcare. The early years are the most crucial years in a child’s development. Our plan will provide high quality childcare that is both flexible and affordable for parents.

“Our current childcare costs are lower than the rest of the UK but every working family with children knows it is a real burden on the family finances. Improving access to quality childcare will not just benefit children – it will help many more women into work.

“At the moment, without all the powers of independence, we have managed to prioritise childcare and are increasing the number of hours from 412.5 to 600.

“Independence offers us the powers to go much further. If we matched, for example, the female labour market participation of Sweden, this would generate an extra £700 million in tax revenue. As we progressively expand childcare, the tax revenue generated would pay for further expansion. Without independence, however, that revenue would leave Scotland, go to Westminster and not be available to fund the further expansion we need.

“With independence, we would keep this revenue here in Scotland to reinvest it in childcare for all, a model we know from countries such as Netherlands works well for children’s development, female participation in the labour market and the wider economy.

“This transformational change in childcare will help give children the best start in life, allow parents to choose to work without worrying about costs and create up to 35,000 new jobs. This is just one of the many opportunities to make Scotland a fairer, more prosperous country through independence.”

‘Scotland’s future is now in Scotland’s hands’

Independence blueprint launched

First Minister Alex Salmond today launched the “most comprehensive blueprint for an independent country ever published ”: Scotland’s Future – Your Guide to an Independent Scotland.

‪‬The guide, which runs to 670 pages and 170,000 words, outlines the shape of the thriving Scotland that will emerge in the event of a vote for independence in next year’s referendum. It also offers a transformational vision of work and social policy, with a revolution in childcare at its heart.

The guide sets out the case for independence and outlines the journey, following a yes vote on September 18 next year, that Scotland will make to independence day on March 24, 2016.

The guide is structured in five parts:

• An overview of the case for independence, including why Scotland needs independence and what a newly independent Scotland will look like.

• A description of the strengths of Scotland’s national finances, a projection of Scotland’s opening financial position at the point of independence and the current Scottish Government’s priorities for the first term of a Scottish Parliament if elected in the May 2016 elections.

• A detailed analysis of the changes needed across Scotland, the opportunities that independence provides for any future Scottish government to make those changes, and the particular priorities for action identified by this government.

• The timescale and process for Scotland to become an independent country following a yes vote; the transition that will take place and the negotiations and agreements that will be required. It also sets out the opportunities for a modern democracy with a written constitution and describes how equality and human rights will be protected and promoted.

• The answers to 650 detailed questions about the opportunities and practicalities of independence.

The guide, published today, includes details of the savings that can be made with independence, including half a billion pounds on defence spending and savings from no longer contributing to the funding of the Westminster Parliament.

It also outlines the Scottish Government’s policies on issues such as currency, international representation – including independent and equal membership of the European Union – citizenship, defence and security, the harnessing of Scotland’s natural resources for the benefit of current and future generations and the fiscal levers necessary to grow the Scottish economy.

The guide also details a range of polices that would be introduced if the current Scottish Government is elected to be the government of an independent Scotland, including:‬

• A transformation in childcare, helping more women into work and providing up to 35,000 jobs.
• A safe, triple-locked pension that meets Scotland’s needs and puts more money in the pockets of our pensioners.
• A guaranteed minimum wage that rises alongside the cost of living to make sure the lowest paid get a fair wage for a fair days work.
• Basic rate tax allowances and tax credits that will also rise at least in line with inflation.
• A change to the way ‘green levies’ are paid for – saving families around £70 a year on their energy bills.
• A fairer welfare system, including a halt to the rollout of Universal Credit and the abolition of the ‘Bedroom Tax’. ‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬
• A productivity and competitive boost to secure the position of Scottish business.

The First Minister said:

“This is the most comprehensive blueprint for an independent country ever published, not just for Scotland but for any prospective independent nation.‬‬‬
“But more than that, it is a mission statement and a prospectus for the kind of country we should be and which this Government believes we can be.

“Our vision is of an independent Scotland regaining its place as an equal member of the family of nations – however, we do not seek independence as an end in itself, but rather as a means to changing Scotland for the better.

“We know we have the people, the skills and resources to make Scotland a more successful country. What we need now are the economic tools and powers to build a more competitive, dynamic economy and create more jobs.

“This guide contains policies which offer nothing less than a revolution in employment and social policy for Scotland, with a transformational change in childcare at the heart of those plans. Our proposals will make it far easier for parents to balance work and family life and will allow many more people, especially women, to move into the workforce, fostering economic growth and helping to boost revenues – which will in itself help pay for the policy.

“With these policies, we can begin the job of undoing the damage caused by the vast social disparities which have seen the UK become one of the most unequal societies in the developed world.

“And we believe it is only with the powers of Independence – by completing the powers of our national Parliament – that we will gain the tools we need to create a more prosperous and fairer society.”

Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said:

“We want as many people as possible across Scotland to read the guide and make up their own minds about Scotland’s future. This is an incredibly thorough and detailed guide, which includes 650 questions about an independent Scotland – and delivers on the answers.

“When it comes to social equality, health, quality of life and economic performance, Scotland has too often lagged behind the performance of our near neighbours across Northern Europe – many of them countries of similar size to Scotland.

“We know that Scotland has huge natural resources and enormous talent among our communities and our workforce – but only independence will give us the ability to make the most of our potential. This is an unprecedented chance to transform our country for the better. Our employment and social policy proposals contained in this guide, including the revolution in childcare, show what is possible.

“It illustrates how the powers of independence can be used to benefit individuals, families, communities and the nation as a whole – and it has economic growth, jobs and fairness at its heart. This is the only detailed plan for Scotland’s future, and today’s publication marks a decisive shift in the debate on what that future should be.”

Opponents of independence were, not unsurprisingly, unimpressed. Better Together leader Alistair Darling MP said:

“The white paper is a work of fiction. It is thick with false promises and
meaningless assertions. Instead of a credible and costed plan, we have a
wish-list of political promises without any answers on how Alex Salmond would
pay for them.”

And Scotland Office minister Alistair Carmichael has warned that an independent Scotland would face many uncertainties.

In a statement, the Scottish Office said:

‘The Scottish Government claim that a currency union between Scotland and the rest of the UK would be in the interests of both. This is wrong.

A currency union may not be in the interests of either Scotland or the rest of the UK. This has been shown by both the UK Government’s analysis and independent experts.

The Chancellor and the Chief Secretary, the Shadow Chancellor and former Chancellors, have all said that it is highly unlikely that a currency union could be agreed or be made to work.

Here is a reminder of the problems:

A currency union is not in Scotland’s or the UK’s interests because:

Currency unions don’t work without close political and fiscal integration, whereas independence is about disintegration: the lesson of the euro area crisis is clear – currency unions are very difficult without fiscal or political union, and can expose all their members to significant risks. Euro area countries are moving towards closer political and fiscal union to address these challenges.
The Scottish Government are proposing the exact opposite – currency union without fiscal or political union. And independence would inevitably mean the continuing UK and Scotland moving further apart. This is hardly a credible basis for a monetary union Divergence of our economies: the economies of an independent Scotland and the UK would be very different, and would diverge over time. This is particularly because Scotland would have a significant dependence on North Sea oil. Changes in the oil price would therefore affect the countries differently and a one-size fits all monetary policy would not suit both.

A currency union is not in an independent Scotland’s interests because:

Constraints on an independent Scotland’s economic policies: even if it could be agreed, a formal currency union would severely limit an independent Scotland’s economic freedom – to ensure that risks to the rest of the UK were managed an independent Scotland would not be able to set its own interest rates and would have to accept the rest of the UK having oversight of its tax and spending plans as is increasingly the case in the euro area.
Economic resilience and credibility: if financial markets sensed that the Bank of England’s monetary policy did not suit Scottish circumstances they might doubt both countries’ commitment to the currency union. Financial market speculation could lead to capital flight and higher interest rates. Ultimately, if markets weren’t calmed, Scotland might have to adopt its own currency in a time of crisis – as happened when the UK left the ERM and as happened 33 days after the Czech Republic and Slovakia separated from one another.

A currency union is not in the UK’s interests because:

Giving up economic sovereignty: Joining a currency union with another state would involve the UK giving up some of its sovereignty in monetary and fiscal policy. Why would it agree to this?
Risk of bailout: The continuing UK would comprise around 90 per cent of total GDP in a sterling currency union, with Scotland as 10 per cent. The continuing UK would therefore bear much more risk of having to bail out an independent Scotland if it got into fiscal difficulties.
Why take the risk? Negotiating a sterling currency union would be far more important for an independent Scotland than for the continuing UK. The rest of the UK accounts for 70% of Scotland’s total trade, whereas Scotland accounts for 10% of the UK’s trade. As Carwyn Jones, the First Minister of Wales, has asked, what gain is there to the rest of the UK from having an independent country share its currency, other than uncertainly. It would mean difficult decisions having to be taken across two different governments which is a recipe for instability.

No one should vote for an independent Scotland on the basis that they will get to keep the pound. Independence means leaving the UK’s monetary union and leaving the pound. The only way for Scotland to keep the pound as it is now is to stay in the UK.’

The politicians have had – and will continue to have – their say all the way to referendum voting day on 18 September next year. But ultimately, Scotland’s future is down to YOU.

A copy of ‘Scotland’s Future – Your Guide to an Independent Scotland’ is attached below; you have 295 days, so happy reading!

Scotland_s_Future___blueprint_for_a_fairer_country

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Local group’s fury over ‘Bedroom Tax’ vote

North Edinburgh Women’s International Group has written to Labour leader Ed Miliband following a vote in the House of Commons last week:

Dear Mr Miliband

I am writing to you on behalf of North Edinburgh Women’s International Group regarding reports in the news that 46 Labour MPs failed to turn up to the House of Commons to vote for a motion which could have led to the scrapping of the bedroom tax.

We are unable to understand how this situation could have come about. We can only assume that the 10 Scottish MP’s who failed to vote were unaware of the 150% increase in people using foodbanks in Scotland during the last year as a result of the current programme of welfare reforms. They must also be unaware of the warning from Shelter that “for many, the safety and security of a home is under threat like never before.”

We understand that Labour’s motion on the scrapping of the bedroom tax was defeated by only 26 votes. We would have thought that the recommendation by the UN Special Rapporteur on Housing calling for the bedroom tax to be suspended immediately would have had an impact on members of the Labour Party. This does not appear to have been the case.

We were under the impression that an important part of an MP’s job involves turning up to their workplace (ie the House of Commons) and voting on issues which affect the people they represent. We believe that 46 of your Party’s MPs have not been doing their job and we find this completely unacceptable.

The inaction of these MP’s demonstrates that the Labour Party does not represent the interests of ordinary people. It also suggests that the Labour Party does not care about the suffering and hardship experienced by many families as a result of the bedroom tax.

We are interested in finding out what the Trade Union Movement’s response is to the inaction of the 46 MP’s who represent the Party which they fund.

We are disgusted, angry and disheartened at what has become of the Labour Party. It is no longer the Party of ordinary people. Your Party has taken working class people’s votes for granted. You have insulted our intelligence by assuming that people would forgive and forget this terrible betrayal. This is a serious error which will cost the Labour Party at election time. The excuse of Labour MPs having been paired will not be accepted.

We look forward to your reply

Your sincerely

Anna Hutchison

On behalf of North Edinburgh Women’s International Group

One week on, the group is still awaiting a response.

Forth Labour Councillor Cammy Day comments:

Responding to letter by the Edinburgh North International Women’s group

I agree with the Edinburgh North International Women’s Group in their letter dated 19th Nov in their deploring of the evil bedroom tax. As the deputy convenor of the Council’s Health, Social Care and Housing Committee I have seen first hand the damage it’s done, but I think your letter unfairly puts the blame of the existence of the bedroom tax on the Labour Party. It was the Labour Party who voted against the introduction of the bedroom tax from the beginning. It was the Labour Party who has campaigned to bring an end to it and promised that a Labour government would scrap it right away. This policy was brought in by the Coalition Government, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives. They are the ones who made this unfair and pernicious tax, a law.

At Council level the Labour Party has prevented evictions in cases caused by the bedroom tax, something I was proud to be a part of in Edinburgh. At Holyrood they have voted against it and sought to bring in legislation to prevent it. I feel your letter leads people astray in their thinking, last week’s opposition debate by the Labour Party sought to highlight and reverse the government’s position. You are correct when you say that some Labour MPs did not vote for the motion. This was a result of pairing – where MPs from both opposition and government are paired when they cannot attend (either because they are ill, or because they have constituency or foreign business). This is part of our parliamentary system.

I hope you will reconsider your verdict on the Labour Party’s position on the bedroom tax. Only a Labour government in 2015 has committed to scrapping the bedroom tax and only a Labour government will continue the fight for the ordinary working class people you speak for. That’s why I am a member of the Labour Party and the trade union movement. We must stay together in this battle for a fairer society and show the coalition government of Liberal Democrats and Conservatives for what they damage the have done by legislating for the bedroom tax to exist in the first place and their wider attack of welfare reforms.

Cammy Day

Councillor – Forth Ward

Readers – it’s over to you!

Independence IFS and buts

Think Tank report warns of spending cuts and tax hikes

An independent Scotland would have to cut spending or increase taxes for its finances to be sustainable in the long-term, a leading think tank has warned. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said Scotland would face a ‘fiscal gap’ of 1.9% of national income, more than double that of the rest of the UK (0.8%).

The report says that significant spending cuts or tax increases would be necessary to balance the books.

Better Together campaigners say the report leaves the economic argument for independence ‘in tatters’ but Scottish Finance Secretary John Swinney believes the report actually underlines the case for an independent Scotland.

The 69 page ‘Fiscal sustainability of an independent Scotland’ (attached below) concludes:

‘An independent Scotland would have the freedom to make its own decisions about spending priorities and the appropriate design of the tax system, but it would be constrained by the necessity to deliver a significant cut in spending and/or increase in tax revenues in order to put its public finances in a sustainable long-term position’.‘

Speaking after the publication of the report earlier today, Alistair Darling, leader of the pro-Union Better Together campaign, said: “This sober and impartial analysis by the IFS leaves the SNP’s economic case for independence in tatters. SNP ministers pretend that in an independent Scotland there would be more money to spend, but that notion has been comprehensively demolished by the analysis from this respected institution. Today’s report is clear that an independent Scotland would need big cuts to things like pensions, benefits and the NHS or a big increase in tax.”

Not so, say supporters of independence. Commenting on the IFS report, Mr Swinney said: “This report actually underlines the case for an independent Scotland with full control of its own economy and the ability to take decisions that can secure a stronger and more prosperous future for the country.

“It is no surprise that projections based on the UK’s economic position show a long-term deficit when the OBR state that the UK’s economic strategy is “unsustainable” and that the UK will run a fiscal deficit in each of the next 50 years.

“The IFS themselves admit their projections in this report are ‘inherently uncertain and could evolve differently if Scotland were independent rather than part of the UK; in addition they could be substantially effected by the policies chosen by the government of an independent Scotland’.

“The whole point of independence is to equip Scotland with the competitive powers we need to make the most of our vast natural resources and human talent and to follow a better path from the current Westminster system which stifles growth and which is responsible for the damaging economic decisions which this report – and its projections – are based on.

“Scotland has strong financial and economic foundations, and even without a single penny from oil and gas, both output and tax revenues per head in Scotland are virtually the same as for the UK.

“Next year’s independence referendum will give people in Scotland a choice between staying with a broken Westminster system that has created one of the biggest gaps between rich and poor in the western world, which concentrates far too many jobs in London and the South-East of England, has accumulated vast amounts of debt and which neglects manufacturing and trade – or using the full tools of independence to rebalance the economy, improve equality and support public services.

“Between 1977 and 2007, smaller independent European countries similar to Scotland grew their economies faster than ours, and if we had matched those rates that greater output would now be the equivalent of around £4.5 billion.

“Tomorrow the Scottish Government will publish detailed analysis of the economic security, growth and job opportunities that come with the powers of independence and by taking Scotland’s future into Scotland’s hands.”

IFS report