optimism – The NEN – North Edinburgh News

Business confidence dips for Scottish firms in January

Bank of Scotland Business Barometer for January 2023 shows:

Business confidence in Scotland fell five points during January to 10%
As National Apprenticeship Week approaches 27% of businesses in Scotland say investing in training and development presents the biggest opportunity for growth in the next six months
Overall UK business confidence reaches six-month high at 22% with twice as many businesses optimistic about the economy than in December

Business confidence in Scotland fell five points during January to 10%, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.

Companies in Scotland reported lower confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, down 17 points at 8%.  When taken alongside their optimism in the economy, up six points to 12%, this gives a headline confidence reading of 10%. 

Scottish businesses identified their top target areas for growth in the next six months as evolving their product and service offer (42%), investing in sustainability (29%) and investing in their teams (27%).

The Business Barometer, which surveys 1,200 businesses monthly, provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.

A net balance of 14% of businesses in the region expect to increase staff levels over the next year. This is up from December when a net balance of 11% of businesses reported plans to make new hires.

Overall UK business confidence climbed in January, with firms reporting their highest confidence levels since July last year.

Business confidence increased by five points to 22% and the net balance of businesses feeling optimistic about the economy doubled on December’s reading to 16%.

Ahead of National Apprenticeship Week (6-12th February) 30% of businesses across the UK reported that they are looking at opportunities to grow by investing in staff development and training. A net balance of 17% of firms reported plans to create new jobs in the next twelve months.

Chris Lawrie, area director for Scotland for Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking, said: “Ongoing pressures from wider economic challenges are clearly continuing to impact Scottish businesses, but confidence remains in positive territory and firms’ resilience shines on. 

“Over the next few months as concerns such as rising costs continue, it is important firms keep a close eye on cash flow. Having reserves ready for when challenges hit makes managing turbulent periods easier. We’ll remain by the side of Scottish firms to help them successfully navigate the months and years ahead.”   

For the second month in a row, confidence in the manufacturing and service sectors increased, with manufacturing rising to 28% (up 15 points) and services up to 25% (up seven points).

Business confidence in construction was down two points to 27%, while retail confidence fell for the second month in a row to 7% (from 13%), the lowest level since February 2021.

Paul Gordon, Managing Director for Relationship Management, Lloyds Bank Business & Commercial Banking, said: “After a challenging 2022, it’s heartening to see confidence rising for the second consecutive month.

“This is the first back to back increase since September 2021. There is no doubt that the business environment remains challenging and uncertainty still remains, but this improvement in optimism is very welcome as we start 2023.

“With pay expectations tempering, trade expectations set to improve, and a clearer way forward on energy price support, this may give businesses a bit more certainty and the confidence they need to inspire investment and promote growth.”

Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist for Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “Business confidence continues to improve following the December boost. Firms are clearly more optimistic about the wider economy and this is driving the increase, helped by precursory signs that wage and other cost pressures may be easing.

“It is still a tough environment for businesses, with high energy bills remaining a concern during the winter months, but there are grounds for optimism for 2023 if inflation starts to trend lower.”

Scottish businesses back a better 2023 as turnover prospects shine brighter

Bank of Scotland survey shows:

1. Almost two-thirds of Scottish businesses (63%) are confident they’ll have more success in 2023 than in 2022, with 58% expecting a higher turnover

2. 91% of country’s firms are planning to invest in their business in the next 12 months

3. Top of Scotland businesses’ New Year’s resolutions are retaining current staff (42%), improving productivity (39%), and upskilling existing staff (35%)

The majority of Scottish businesses expect 2023 to be more successful than 2022, despite challenging economic forecasts, according to the latest data from Lloyds Bank.

Almost two-thirds of the country’s firms (63%) said they are confident they would have greater success in the coming 12 months, compared to the past year. A fifth (20%) were not confident about being more successful in 2023, and one in seven (14%) expected their business to perform at the same level in the next year. The research was carried out between December 1 and December 14 as part of additional polling for the monthly Lloyds Bank Business Barometer.

Firms in Scotland projected a more upbeat outlook for 2023, with more than half (58%) expecting a higher turnover than in 2022. A quarter (25%) of businesses expect turnover to increase by between 5% and 19%, and almost a fifth (18%) anticipate turnover to increase by more than 20%.

When businesses were asked what they would do to fuel growth, 91% said they were planning an investment drive. Businesses reported that funding would be used to generally grow their business (43%), invest in energy efficiency measures (42%), develop their company (41%), and increase wages for employees (29%).

Alongside investment, Scottish businesses plan on making several New Year’s resolutions. These include retaining current staff (42%), improving productivity (39%) and upskilling existing staff (35%). 14% said they are set to invest in paying bonuses and short-term incentives. A quarter (26%) are intending to target growth from their existing customer base.

Chris Lawrie, area director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland, said: “It’s certainly been another year of constant challenges for Scottish firms, but that so many are preparing for greater success and further growth as we approach 2023 is yet another sign of their unwavering resilience.

“As well as growth, businesses must also ready themselves for further challenges ahead, including by effectively managing cashflow and reviewing overheads and expenditure to check whether any changes or cuts can be made.

“Whatever their New Year’s resolutions or goals, we will remain by their side to help them to realise their ambitions and overcome any obstacles ahead.”

Council Leaders: “There’s so much to be hopeful about”

Capital Coalition leaders Adam McVey and Cammy Day look back on achievements made over the last year – and wish the city the best for 2022

As we say farewell to 2021, we want to take this opportunity to recognise the many people who have protected, served and inspired us during this year. From the NHS and our care workers to refuse collectors, supermarket staff to community volunteers. Thank you so much for everything you do.

Thanks also to the businesses who have strived to adapt and survive and, of course, all of you who have made so many personal sacrifices to limit the spread of this virus.

As a city, we’ve shown real grit, community spirit and resilience through everything the pandemic has thrown at us – and I have no doubt that we’ll continue this into the new year.

As we look back on the year, there’s a lot more to be proud of. In November we supported Glasgow to host one of the biggest events the country has ever seen – the COP26 climate conference.

Not only did we help our neighbours stage this global event, but we took our own strides to tackle the climate emergency. Last month we approved our 2030 Climate Strategy, which sets out a greener, fairer, climate ready future for the Capital, achieving our ambitious net zero 2030 goals.

We’re already making headway – in November we became the only city in Scotland to be awarded with the highest rating for climate action by the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), recognising the steps we’re taking to manage the Capital’s environmental impacts.

There’s still a great deal of work to be done, but we’re ready to take the bull by the horns.

In September we unveiled bold proposals for our next local development plan, City Plan 2030. If approved by the Scottish Government, it will be a game-changer for the way we develop the city and the associated carbon footprint, not to mention boosts to wellbeing, affordable housing and jobs.

The City Mobility Plan, approved in February, sets out a plan for delivering a better connected, net zero transport system. With road traffic a major contributor to harmful greenhouse gases, it’s essential that we rethink the way we move around the city. We’re already making great progress with a range of exciting projects to do this, including Trams to Newhaven, City Centre West to East link, and plans to transform George Street.

The changing climate is not the only challenge we face. Sadly, poverty continues to affect many of our residents, despite our strong economy. We’re committed to helping everyone to share in the city’s success – we really want to end poverty, once and for all. Amongst the actions we’re taking, we’re really focusing on making sure everyone has a comfortable place to live.

Access to a home is a basic right and, thankfully, through our work with third sector partners, we’ve seen the number of people rough sleeping in the city drop. Throughout the pandemic our Homelessness and Advice Service showed exceptional dedication, delivering vital support to the most vulnerable people in the city and finding secure places for households to stay.

Providing quality, affordable homes is essential to tackling the housing crisis, and we’re still on track to build 20,000 affordable homes by 2027. Major projects like the regeneration of Powderhall, New Fountainbridge and the transformation of Granton waterfront – our £1.3bn project to create one of the most sustainable, vibrant new coastal towns in Scotland – will significantly boost our housing stock.

We want to create a truly equal city for future generations, which is why we’re proud to have been awarded Living Wage City status, meaning fair pay, fair hours and respect at work. This year, the Edinburgh Guarantee also marked a milestone, celebrating ten years of helping young people, and now expanding to support all ages and backgrounds access fair work, training and employment opportunities.

It goes without saying that the staff working in our schools have gone above and beyond over the past year, and all our pupils and their families deserve special thanks for their ongoing resilience. I’d also like to send a thank you to all of those other teams supporting schools, children and families. We’ve had a greater focus on outdoor learning and our EPIC days in June saw over 3,000 pupils enjoy an outdoor adventure experience at Bonaly.

Next year we have new or replacement schools due to open at Castlebrae, St Crispins, Victoria Primary, Canaan Lane and major works at Darroch and Boroughmuir – all part of our financial commitment as part of our ambitious new school building programme which will see more than £500m planned investment over the next decade.

While recent years have meant we haven’t been able to enjoy our festivals and attractions in the same way we’re used to, we know they’ll be back. We were all disappointed at the cancellation of Hogmanay festivities, but it was absolutely for the right reasons – the public’s wellbeing is our number one priority.

It was fantastic that we were able to enjoy our summer festivals once again this year, albeit on a reduced basis. Our teams worked tirelessly with partners to make sure the programme could go ahead safely and in line with Scottish Government guidance and I want to pay tribute to the Team Edinburgh approach that’s allowed this to happen.

We’re confident our vibrant network of independent businesses and hospitality venues, too, will be back to full capacity before long. They’ve experienced some of their toughest periods during 2020 and 2021 and we’ve been doing everything we can to support them – and will continue to do so over the difficult months ahead.

We know that this isn’t the Christmas and New Year many of us would have wished for. But what we’ve shown over the last year is that we’re an incredibly resilient, adaptable city, with so much to be hopeful about. Let’s stick with it, Edinburgh.

Wishing you all the very best for 2022.

Local Government Elections take place on 5th May 2022

Scottish business confidence climbs as restrictions ease

Bank of Scotland’s Business Barometer for August 2021 shows:

Scottish business confidence rises six points in August to 34%

Firms’ hiring intentions jump 13 points with 34% planning to create jobs in the next 12 months
Overall UK business confidence reaches 36% – the highest reading since May 2018 – as all regions and nations report positive confidence levels

Business confidence in Scotland rose six points during August to 34%, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.

The full easing of lockdown restrictions in Scotland in August was a clear boost for businesses, with overall confidence in the economy also rising by 20 points to 43%.

Companies in Scotland reported marginally lower confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, down eight points at 25%. When taken alongside their optimism in the economy, this gives a headline confidence reading of 34%.

The Business Barometer questions 1,200 businesses monthly and provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.

A net balance of 20% of businesses in Scotland expect to increase staff levels over the next year, up seven points on last month.

Overall UK business confidence rose six points in August, reaching 36%, the highest level recorded since May 2018. When asked about their overall trading prospects businesses reported a six-point increase on July’s reading at 34% and firms’ confidence in the economy also increased six points to 39%.

All UK nations and regions had a positive confidence reading in August. The most confident regions were the North West (64%), North East (46%) and London (41%). All bar three areas reported a growth in confidence in August, with the East Midlands (down 10 points to 28%), West Midlands (down three points to 27%) and Yorkshire and Humber (down two points to 26%) reporting marginal falls.

Fraser Sime, regional director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking, said: “With most of the Covid-19 restrictions easing in August, businesses across Scotland were able to return to normal trading for the first time in 18 months and are feeling optimistic about what this means for the economy.

“With confidence on the up and even more firms are now planning on making new hires, the country is taking great steps towards recovery and growth. We’ll continue to support businesses through the coming months as they aim to capitalise on this positive momentum.”

In sector terms, there was notable strength in sectors benefiting from the further easing of Covid restrictions. Services confidence saw the greatest month-on-month increase, rising by 8 points to 36%, the highest level since January 2018.

Confidence in both manufacturing and construction also picked up (both up 7 points to 40%), led by rises in trading prospects for the year ahead.

The increase in manufacturing confidence came despite ongoing supply disruptions, although the level remains below the high in May. Retail confidence posted a smaller 2-point rise to 34%, remaining below the recent peak in May.

Gareth Oakley, Managing Director for Business Banking, Lloyds Bank, said: “Since the start of the year business confidence has been increasing, and August has been a particularly strong month. Many of the regions have seen significant upticks in confidence and it’s encouraging that Northern Ireland has moved back into positive territory.

“It is clear there is still some level of uncertainty on inflation and the impact of price pressures, but with further boosts to confidence in the services, manufacturing and construction sectors we can be hopeful that demand across all sectors will drive consumption throughout the rest of the year. The last few months of the year will be pivotal to the future of UK economic growth and we remain by the side of businesses as the country continues to reopen.”

Hann-Ju Ho, Senior Economist Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “Business confidence reaching its highest level in over four years tells a positive story about the country’s economic recovery.

“This confidence is driven by the continued success of the vaccine ollout, the removal of lockdown restrictions and adjustments to self-isolation rules.

“Staff shortages remain a challenge, but as the economy moves back towards pre-pandemic levels we can be optimistic that the momentum for business confidence and economic optimism can be sustained in the months ahead.”

Hotel bookings surge brings back optimism at Surgeons Quarter

A CHARITABLE hotel and events business tied to the Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (RCSEd) is rebounding, with strong occupancy at its hotel and forward projections well above expectations.

Surgeons Quarter, which operates the city’s largest independent hotel, Ten Hill Place, will host more than 2000 guests in May, including a range of surgical students sitting vital in-person exams.

It meant that throughout the month, occupancy exceeded 40%, which was 10% above the base level for the city according to data from Smith Travel Research [STR], the world leaders in data intelligence for the sector.

Data from STR also highlights that upcoming bookings at the 129-room Old Town hotel is more than 7% above the average of its 10 closest competitors, as it looks to recapture market share as the sector emerges from lockdown.

Scott Mitchell, Managing Director at Surgeons Quarter, said: “We’re confident that we can emerge from the past 15 months in a very strong position. The number of bookings is very heartening and a good 25% above what we were anticipating given all the uncertainty.

“We’re already expecting close to 50% occupancy for June. While we’d expect more than 75% in a normal year, we appreciate that everything has changed – and we’re delighted to be operating at this level. It’s a credit to our team.

“Guests are responding very positively to the expertise of our team, many of whom served NHS workers throughout much of the first lockdown gaining extensive experience of operating in the current climate.”

At the outset of the pandemic Surgeons Quarter hosted more than 500 clinical and frontline workers, providing 2137 free room nights to staff working at nearby hospitals.

As well as the award-winning hotel, Surgeons Quarter typically operates one of the city’s busiest events and conference programmes, making use of the RCSEd’s impressive collection of buildings while they are not in medical use.

It is now advancing “blended” technologies, hosting the UK hub of the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons annual scientific conference – featuring a mix of in-person and live streamed features and Q&As with Professor Jason Leitch and RCSEd President, Professor Michael Griffin.

It also opened a new outdoor venue, Drinks and Dining Al Fresco, with a vast clear roofed marquee enabling guests to enjoy food and drinks in a safe and socially distanced environment.

All profits support the charitable aims of the College which are education, assessment and advancement in surgical standards worldwide.

Quarter of Scottish businesses able to expand during pandemic

16% of business owners said that they had started their business during the pandemic
But 40% of business owners say they have struggled in the last year
Business owners and High Net Worth Individuals (HNWI) in Scotland broadly optimistic over future economic outlook due to easing of social restrictions

Despite a difficult year, over a quarter of Scottish businesses have been able to expand during the pandemic indicating some ‘green shoots’ of recovery according to research by Rathbone Investment Management.

Indeed, some businesses have been able to adapt their business models during the pandemic, with many moving to online sales in order to generate income. This has had a positive impact with a quarter (26%) of business owners having expanded their business during the pandemic.

In addition, a further 16% of business owners founded their business during the last twelve months as the pandemic sparked new ideas and opportunities.

Businesses in Orkney and Shetland were the most likely to have expanded in the pandemic (33%), while Dundee, Perthshire and Angus had seen the highest numbers of newly created businesses (25%).

However, the pandemic has had significant implications for many businesses across Scotland, with four in ten (37%) reporting that they had suffered during the pandemic according to Rathbones’ research.

The ongoing social restrictions have forced large numbers of businesses to close over the last year, with businesses in retail, leisure and hospitality most impacted. Indeed, while a roadmap has been announced that spells out Scotland’s path out of lockdown, one year into the pandemic many businesses have seen significant losses in income.

It’s clear that the pandemic has had a mixed impact on Scottish businesses. As Scotland, alongside the rest of the UK begins to open up many of Scotland’s business owners and HNWIs (those with investable assets over £250k) are optimistic about the state of the economy.

Indeed, 59% of those surveyed by Rathbones said that they were optimistic about the economic outlook of the next twelve months. Of those, 44% said that the easing of COVID-19 restrictions was a key driver behind this belief in the future strength of the economy.

Simon Dewar, Regional Director at Rathbones comments: “The past twelve months have been difficult for businesses across Scotland with every organisation needing to adapt to some extent due to the pandemic.

“However, the impact has been disproportionate with some businesses severely financially impacted. While government support has gone some way to support these businesses throughout this period, its unlikely we’ll see a true recovery until restrictions are fully lifted.

“With the vaccine roll-out ongoing, many business owners will be holding their breath and hoping that this effort reaps dividends and we can stick to the timelines set out in the roadmap.

“It’s clear from our research that Scottish businesses are largely optimistic for the future, with a high proportion expecting a positive outlook for the economy in the next twelve months. As businesses start to recover from the initial impact of the pandemic putting a financial plan together to rebuild any safety net that may have been eroded away during this period will be key for business owners.

Many businesses have deferred any expansion plans over the last year as the focus has been on survival. As confidence grows, so will the sparks of entrepreneurial endeavour, with businesses dusting down these plans and using what they have learned through the crisis to seize opportunity and build robust businesses that drive our economy.”

Employment up in Scotland

In a rare outbreak of agreement, both Westminster and Holyrood governments welcomed the latest employment figures published today. However Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael said the figures show the Westminster government is making the right choices for Scotland, while Finance Secretary John Swinney countered that Scotland would perform even better with the full powers of independence.

Employment in Scotland has increased by 12,000 over the three months from March to May, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data released today. The number in employment in Scotland now stands at 2,587,000.

Unemployment in Scotland increased by 13,000, to 192,000 in the period March to May 2014. The Scottish unemployment rate is 6.9 per cent, which is above the 6.5 per cent for whole of the UK.

Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael said: “We have seen positive developments over the year as a whole with 76,000 more Scots in employment and 13,000 fewer in unemployment. In June alone, the number of people claiming JSA fell by 4,000 and is now 35,500 lower compared to one year ago. Claimant count is now below 100,000 and at its lowest level since December 2008.

“Today’s news reminds us we need to continue creating the right conditions to get people into jobs. While it is disappointing to see unemployment rise at any time, the news comes against a backdrop of record overall employment, female employment and record private sector employment. The number of economically active people in Scotland is rising and the number of Scots claiming unemployment has now fallen for 16 consecutive months.

“This Government is making the right choices for a stable, growing economy and the jobs that come with it – those are the best choices for Scotland and the people who live here.”

Headline Statistics for the March to May 2014 quarter:

Employment in Scotland increased by 12,000 over the quarter, and increased by 76,000 over the year, to stand at 2,587,000
The Scottish employment rate remained unchanged over the quarter to 73.3 per cent. The rate is just above the UK average of 73.1 per cent
Unemployment in Scotland increased by 13,000 over the quarter and fell by 13,000 over the year. The level now stands at 192,000
At 6.9 per cent, the Scots unemployment rate is above the 6.5 per cent for the UK as a whole
Economic Activity increased by 25,000 over the quarter and now stands at 2,779,000. Also, the Economic Activity rate increased over the quarter to stand at 78.8 per cent
In June 2014, the number of people out of work and claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) was 96,000

Responding to the latest labour market and GDP figures Finance Secretary John Swinney said: ““Today’s figures mark an important stage in our recovery.

“These positive output figures show that Scotland’s economy continues to go from strength to strength with growth of 1.0 per cent over the quarter and 2.6 per cent over the year – the fastest annual growth in over three years.

“Nearly six years on from the start of the financial crisis, our economy is now larger than before the downturn. Output in Scotland is at record levels and we have exceeded our pre-recession peak at least one quarter ahead of the UK.

“Over the last quarter the improvement in our economy has been broad-based with welcome signs of growth in manufacturing which was up 3.4 per cent and services which account for over 70 per cent of our economy up 0.9 per cent.

“Today’s output figures are supported by new labour market data which show employment has reached a new record in Scotland with our economic activity rate also hitting a record high.

“As the economy recovers more people are moving from inactivity into the labour market to look for employment. With this boost to economic activity it is not surprising that both employment and unemployment have risen over the quarter – albeit unemployment is still down over the year.

“These figures support the emerging body of evidence which all point to the recovery in Scotland continuing to gather momentum.

“Monday’s Bank of Scotland’s PMI survey indicated that private sector activity in Scotland expanded for the 21st consecutive month in June whilst the Fraser of Allander, ITEM Club and PWC have all revised up their forecasts for growth this year.

“There can be no doubt that Scotland has the economic potential to be an independent country. With the full powers of independence we could do more to get people into work, ensure everyone in Scotland is able to benefit from our national wealth and give employers access to the skills they need to grow their business strengthening our economy and creating jobs.”

Cabinet Secretary for Training, Youth and Women’s Employment Angela Constance added: “While today’s figures show growth in Scotland’s economy, our ambition is to do better than to simply return to pre-recession levels of economic performance.

“It is encouraging that female employment continues to increase markedly with a higher employment rate than the rest of the UK.

“Although we continue to do better than the UK in terms of employment rates amongst young people and 90 per cent of school leavers are in positive destinations, our youth unemployment rate remains too high.

“This is why we support the principle outlined in the report last month by the Commission for Developing Scotland’s Young Workforce, that links between schools, colleges and employers can be strengthened, to be more aligned to student and business needs.”