Police in Edinburgh have released images of a man that they wish to speak to as they believe he may have information that can assist with an investigation into a serious assault and robbery.
The incident took place around 10.15 pm on Thursday 10th November 2022, on Ferry Road. The victim, a 46-year-old man, was assaulted and robbed, resulting in serious injuries.
The male shown in the images is described as being a white male, in his late teens to early 20’s, around 5ft 8 to 5ft 10 inches in height, slim build, shaved dark hair and was wearing a black t-shirt, light grey jogging bottoms and light coloured trainers.
Detective Constable Chris Docherty, from Edinburgh CID, said: “This incident was highly distressing for the victim and we’re eager to trace the man pictured. The male victim in this incident sustained a serious injury and was treated at the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh.
“I am asking that the male pictured in the images to make contact with police in order that further enquiries can be conducted. I am also asking members of the public that if they recognise this individual to contact police.”
“Anyone with information should call police on 101, quoting incident 3719 of 10 November 2022. Alternatively, you can call Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111, if you wish to remain anonymous.”
Business Activity Index falls further below the neutral 50.0 threshold
Sharper decline in new orders
Business sentiment weakens in November
According to the latest Royal Bank of Scotland PMI® data, the Scottish private sector reported a deepening contraction in private sector output during November.
The Business Activity Index ticked down from 45.8 in October to 43.9 in November, signalling that fastest decrease in the current series of reduction that began in August. Hesitancy among clients amid economic uncertainty, the cost of living crisis and higher borrowing costs, stifled demand. Consequently, inflows of incoming new business continued to decline in November.
Moreover, the pace of reduction steepened in November and extended the current run of contraction to five months. Looking ahead, expectations regarding the 12-month activity outlook across Scotland weakened from October’s three-month high and was subdued in the context of historical data.
New business placed across Scotland’s private sector decreased sharply in November. The downturn quickened from the preceding survey period to the fastest overall in the current five-month run of contraction. An array of reasons were linked to the latest reduction in sales, including lower market activity, the cost of living crises, rising borrowing costs, and growing economic uncertainty resulting to delayed-decision making.
All of the 12 monitored UK regions reported a decline in inflows of new business, with Scotland registering the third-fastest downturn behind Northern Ireland and the East Midlands.
Latest survey data signalled muted expectations for the 12-month activity outlook across Scotland. Business confidence weakened from October’s three-month high, posting well below the historical average. While there were hopes of growth in sales in the coming year, the ongoing downturn in activity weighed on sentiment.
Expectations towards future activity across Scotland were noticeably less upbeat than those recorded at the UK level.
Payroll numbers across Scotland’s private sector firms increased in November, extending the run of job growth to 20 months. The pace of job creation quickened slightly from October amid renewed growth in employment across the manufacturing sector. However, reports of resignations, rising uncertainty, reduced demand and job cuts resulted in only a marginal overall upturn in hiring activity.
The latest uptick in employment across Scotland printed broadly in line with that at the UK level.
For the sixth time in as many months, levels of outstanding business fell across Scotland during November. The rate of depletion was broadly unchanged from October, indicating a sharp decrease in work-in-hand overall. According to anecdotal evidence, completion of contracts and a drop in sales was linked to fewer backlogs.
The rate of decrease across Scotland outstripped the UK-wide average and was the second most severe after Northern Ireland.
Input prices across the Scottish private sector inclined rapidly during November, thereby extending the current run of inflation to two-and-a-half years. Adjusted for seasonality, the latest reading ticked-up to a three-month high. Firms blamed the latest increase in average cost burdens on energy prices, wages, higher shipping costs and the cost of living crisis.
However, the pace of input price inflation across Scotland was slightly slower than the UK-wide average.
Charge inflation entered its twenty-fifth month across Scotland during November. The pace of inflation further intensified from September’s recent low, signalling the fastest rise in charges in five months, but was marginally weaker than that recorded for the UK as a whole. The latest increase in charges mirrored the upturn in average costs burdens.
Source: Royal Bank of Scotland, S&P Global.
Judith Cruickshank, Chair, Scotland Board, Royal Bank of Scotland, commented: “The latest survey data signalled a stronger contraction across the Scottish private sector during November, as demand waned amid market uncertainty and the cost of living crisis.
“As a result, both activity and incoming new business fell as sharpest rates in the current four- and five-month sequences of reductions.
“Adding further strain on the sector was the continued intensification of price pressures. After cooling over the summer, input price inflation again accelerated in the fourth and final quarter of the year. Additionally, rates charged by private sector firms also increased at a quicker rate during November as firms tried to recoup costs.
“Overall, the penultimate month of the year pointed to confidence among private sector firms registering less upbeat than that seen in October, as economic challenges and feeble demand weighed on exceptions.”
Bank of Scotland Business Barometer for November 2022 shows:
· Business confidence in Scotland rose 19 points during November to 24% – the highest reading since July 2022 and highest of all UK nations and regions
· Scottish businesses identify top growth opportunities as investing in their teams (43%), evolving their offering (40%) and introducing new technology (35%)
· Overall UK business confidence remains robust at 10% with all regions and nations reporting a positive confidence reading apart from the South East
Business confidence in Scotland rose 19 points in November to 24% – the highest reading since July 2022 and highest of all UK nations and regions, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.
The survey was conducted between 1st-15th November, before the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement announcement on Thursday the 17th November.
Companies in Scotland reported higher confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, up eight points to 30%. When taken alongside their optimism in the economy, up 30 points to 16% this gives a headline confidence reading of 24%.
Scottish businesses identified their top target areas for growth in the next six months as investing in their teams (43%), evolving their offering (40%), and introducing new technology (35%).
The Business Barometer, which questions 1,200 businesses monthly, provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.
A net balance of 8% of Scottish businesses expect to increase staff levels over the next year, down eight points on last month.
Overall UK business confidence fell five points during November, but remained positive at 10%. Firms’ outlook on their future trading prospects was down two points to 25%, and their optimism in the wider economy dropped four points to -2%. Despite a seven-point dip, UK businesses remained positive about hiring intentions with 14% of firms aiming to create new jobs in the next 12 months.
All UK regions and nations, apart from the South East, reported a positive confidence reading in November, with seven recording a month-on-month increase in confidence. Of those recording an increase in confidence, Scotland, Wales (up 12 points to 17%) and the South West (up nine points to 5%) saw the largest monthly changes.
Chris Lawrie, area director for Bank of Scotland, said: “It’s encouraging to see confidence among firms in Scotland reach the highest in the UK, as they show their trademark resilience in the face of numerous headwinds and a challenging economy.
“As firms look to the year ahead, they’ll have a close eye on managing rising prices, and keeping a close eye on working capital will help firms as they try to mitigate the effects of inflation on their operations. We’ll be by their side to ensure they are in the best position possible in the months ahead and they look to capitalise on opportunities for growth.”
Business confidence in retail increased to 15% (up from 9%), perhaps reflecting a renewed confidence in trading prospects ahead of the festive season. However, business confidence in the manufacturing sector fell for the sixth month in a row, to 4%, down 9 points, the lowest confidence level since early 2021.
The construction sector held gains made in October, remaining unchanged at 20%, although this level still remains weaker than in the first half of the year.
Paul Gordon, Managing Director for SME and Mid Corporates, Lloyds Bank Business & Commercial Banking, said: “The fall in confidence shows just how tough it is for businesses right now.
“Pressures from rising costs continue and businesses are starting to feel the burden of higher energy bills. However, the tentative easing of wage expectations should provide some solace although we know the labour market is still tight.
“We would encourage businesses to keep a keen eye on their costs and cash flow as we head into the festive period. If any businesses are struggling, we would encourage them to reach out for support. At Lloyds Bank we remain by the side of businesses to help navigate these challenging times.”
Hann-Ju Ho, Senior Economist Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “Given the recent political and economic landscape, it comes as little surprise that economic optimism and business confidence have fallen this month.
“Pay growth expectations remain high by historical standards, which could signal ongoing difficulties ahead for businesses to fill vacancies.
“Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see if the clearer policy picture provided by the Autumn Statement will lead to business confidence moving in a more positive direction as we go into 2023.”
Underlying project-starts remain depressed, 17% down on the preceding three months, 13% lower than in 2021.
Residential (-21%), non-residential, (-13%) and civils (-13%) all fall against the preceding three months.
Northern Ireland (+16%) and Scotland (+19%) post strong results during November Index period
Glenigan, one of the construction sector’s leading insight experts releases the November 2022 edition of its Construction Index.
The Index focuses on the three months to the end of October 2022, covering all underlying projects with a total value of £100m or less (unless otherwise indicated), with all figures seasonally adjusted.
The key takeaway from November’s Index is the gradual levelling out of project-start decline, which has characterised the Index since May 2022.
However, whilst performance has stabilised, overall underlying project-starts remain at a low ebb, 17% lower than the previous three months to October, and 13% down on the same period last year.
According to Glenigan’s Senior Economist, Rhys Gadsby, “It’s encouraging to see a fall in project starts has slowed during the period covered by this Index, however, optimism should be cautious.
“Our recent Forecast, released last week, indicated some gale-force headwinds going into 2023, so we shouldn’t expect this performance plateau to be the harbinger of full recovery, at least in the short term.
“Geopolitical disruption, an uncertain domestic economy and a government finding its feet have dented market confidence. Despite the much-needed market assurance expected from the Chancellor’s Statement on 17th November 2022, it’s unlikely it will provide an immediate boost in activity.”
Sector Analysis – Residential
Decline was consistent across the board, with project-starts falling 21% against the preceding three months to stand 10% lower than 2021 levels.
Despite social housing faring slightly better compared to other verticals covered in the Index (-7% against the previous three months), the value still dipped 26% against last year.
In contrast, private housing-starts tumbled 24% on the previous three months whilst only falling 6% compared to 2021.
Sector Analysis – Non-Residential
The downward trend continues in the non-residential verticals. However, office project-starts were an exception, remaining largely unchanged on a year ago and were up an impressive 11% on the three months preceding October. Whilst industrial starts were up 4% on the previous three months, they slipped 15% behind 2021 levels.
Hotel and leisure starts fell 19% against the preceding three months, experiencing a massive 38% decline against last year. Education (-24%) and health (-41%) work starting on site also declined against the previous three months, respectively standing 28% and 31% lower than a year ago.
Civils project starts slipped back 13% against the previous three months but remained stable compared to 2021 figures.
Regional Analysis
Similar to other Glenigan Indexes published in 2022, Northern Ireland project-starts saw another performance uptick, rising 16% on the previous three months and up by a massive 35% on a year ago.
Scotland also experienced a strong period, with on-site starts up 19% on the last three months and 10% higher than 2021.
Project-start performance was less consistent in other regions. Whilst Wales witnessed a 25% boost against the preceding year, figures were 5% down on the previous three months. The North West remained largely unchanged on the last three months and a modest 2% down on 2021.
All other regions registered decline during the November Index period, and compared to last year. Project-starts in London and Yorkshire & The Humber both experienced steep falls (-35%) against 2021 levels.
For more information about the Glenigan Index and its other publications and services click here.
Work continues to bring the Heart up to the state where it can open fully to the public, but in the meantime, those of you who missed our Enliven event recently, need not worry. We’re holding another taster event on Saturday 26th November, from 2 to 4pm.
This is a Coorie-In as winter approaches, where you’ll be able to take part in all sorts of craft activities and visit different parts of the site – the Anchor Building, The Creel Building and the Victoria Building. Different activities will be taking place in each.
Some of our recently trained volunteers will be ready to welcome you to a reminiscence session in the Atrium; The History of Education Centre will invite you to visit the transformed classroom on the first floor which will be the new home of the Victorian Schoolroom; The Men of Leith’s Shed will welcome you to their workshop in the Creel Building and tell you about their new Repair Shop, while the Anchor Building and the old gym hall will host numerous physical activities and craft sessions.
Do come along and see what’s on offer. There will even be food tastings!
Don’t miss it.
Can you help?
If you’ve visited the blog page on the website, you will have seen that there are various questions being posed of you. If you haven’t visited, check it out.
We’re searching for the families of two men who taught at VPS during the First World War. Please do have a look and see if you can help.
The latest blog also features an intriguing find in the Victoria Building. Do you recognise it? It is burned into the floor on the first floor.
Those of you who have volunteered to help out at the Heart are being invited to a chat with our Volunteer Coordinator, Bryan, a tour of the site with our Manager, Roger, and maybe even a sandwich or a coffee and cake, on Saturday 19th November, from 11 till 2.
Please register to volunteer via the volunteering page on the website and let us now what activities you would be interested in helping with.
We would like to know by Tuesday 22nd if you will attend the event so that we can get the catering right.
Finally, we are pleased to welcome the Edinburgh-based youth theatre group Lyra to present our very first public performance in the Heart.
This will be Snowstorm, a charming winter’s tale for children aged 5-8. It will take place on Monday 21st November at 6pm.
Tickets are free but are strictly limited and must be booked in advance.
Email admin@heartofnewhavencommunity.co.uk with Snowstorm in the title, to enquire about availability, and pass the word along to those who might not otherwise have heard about it.
