How the Independence Movement is Mathematically Defeating Itself
Dear Editor,
For years, the Scottish independence movement has been shackled by a fundamental misunderstanding of Holyrood’s Additional Member System.
The persistent rallying cry of “SNP 1, SNP 2” has not only failed to maximise our representation, but it has actively handed parliamentary power to unionist MSPs. The electoral facts prove that millions of pro-independence votes are being routinely wasted.
In the 2016 Scottish Parliament election, the SNP dominated the constituency ballot, winning 59 seats. However, the regional list system mathematically penalises parties that win heavily in the constituencies.
Consequently, the SNP’s 953,587 regional list votes yielded a mere 4 list seats.
The D’Hondt formula rendered nearly a million peach ballot votes virtually worthless, allowing the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour to use their regional votes to sweep 24 and 21 list seats, respectively.
In 2021, this electoral tragedy repeated itself. Pro-independence voters dutifully followed the dual-vote strategy, helping the SNP win a record 62 constituency seats.
Yet, despite securing over a million votes on the regional list, the SNP returned just 2 regional MSPs. Over a million independence votes were essentially torched. This inefficiency directly enabled unionist parties to comfortably fill the regional lists, artificially inflating their influence in parliament.
I argue that some still argue for an “Indy 1, Indy 2” approach, assuming that backing the same dominant independence party on the peach ballot paper will secure victory. It fundamentally does not work for the Scottish Independence movement. Continuing to pile list votes onto a party that has already swept the constituencies is mathematically self-defeating.
To break this deadlock and secure a genuine pro-independence supermajority, our strategy must evolve. We must stop throwing our regional votes into the D’Hondt trap. The formula for success is clear: it has to be Indy 1 on the constituency ballot, and Alliance to Liberate Scotland 2 on the regional vote on the peach ballot paper.
Only by splitting our votes strategically can we capture the regional lists, lock unionist MSPs out of Holyrood, and finally deliver the parliament Scotland needs to secure its independence.
Yours for Scotland,
Dhruva Kumar
Glasgow Region List Candidate
Alliance to Liberate Scotland
Former MP Candidate, Glasgow, ALBA Party