One in Six: Working family poverty hits record high

  • Billions spent on state support enrich private landlords, while one in six working households face poverty 
  • Action needed to bring down housing and childcare costs, and make work pay, to prevent further increases in poverty  
  • Stark new figures show the need to rethink economy and end constant house price spiral, report says 

The UK’s relative poverty rate among working households has hit a record high this century of 17.4 per cent, according to the first comprehensive analysis of official data released last month. 

Working poverty rates among families with three or more children have reached 42 per cent, up more than two thirds over the past decade. 

The figures, reflecting the position just before the pandemic struck, show that working poverty rates have risen across the entire country but are highest in London, Wales and the north of England. Families of all sizes have been affected, with single parents, couples with a single earner and large families affected worst. 

The sharp rise in working poverty (poverty faced by anyone living in a household where someone is in work) is revealed in a newreport by the IPPR think tank.

The report, No Longer Managing, lists four factors behind the growth in poverty: spiralling housing costs among low-income households; low wages; a social security system that has failed to keep up with rental costs; and a lack of flexible and affordable childcare.  

It identifies the economy’s over-dependance on house price growth as a key factor in driving poverty higher, as more families have to rely on renting privately and housing costs for private tenants have risen by almost half (48 per cent) in real terms over 25 years. One in four households is projected to be renting from private landlords by 2025. 

As a result, it says, much of the multi-billion pound benefits bill supports housing costs in the private sector, with any increase effectively channelled into the pockets of private landlords. IPPR estimates that £11.1 billion of housing support spending went to private landlords last year. 

Detailed IPPR analysis of DWP survey data also found that: 

  • Two-earner families where one partner works full-time and one works part-time are increasingly being pulled into poverty, a significant shift. For people in this group, the chances of being pulled into poverty have doubled over the past two decades, from one in 20 to one in 10.
  • Even for households with two people in full-time work, the chances of being pulled into poverty have more than doubled over the same period, rising from 1.4 per cent to 3.9 per cent.
  • Couple households with one full-time earner now have a poverty rate of 31 per cent, almost as high as working households where nobody works full time.
  • London has the highest rate of in-work poverty – 22 per cent – with Wales, the Midlands and the north of England next highest on 18 per cent. The rate is lowest in Northern Ireland (13 per cent). 

The IPPR report argues for new and different long-term targets for welfare, economic and housing policy, which reflect housing, childcare and travel-to-work costs as a percentage of families’ income. 

It says that the government’s current ‘levelling-up’ agenda is “unlikely to benefit working families if it remains largely focused on physical infrastructure” and fails to address growing inequalities. These include rapidly rising house prices and the growing gulf between property owners and renters – often in the most affluent parts of the country. 

Instead it urges developing wider objectives to bear down on some of the highest costs faced by working families – housing and childcare – and to ‘make work pay’. 

The report calls for long-term reforms to: 

  • Contain housing costs as a share of household income. This could include setting a house price inflation target as part of the Bank of England’s remit; greater taxation of property wealth; and investing at least £15 billion in capital grants to help vastly increase the rate of new housebuilding. 
  • Contain childcare costs as a proportion of household income, and make it more flexible. Measures to achieve this would include higher state subsidies for children under five and wraparound care for school-age children, with funding going directly to childcare providers.
  • Make work pay, through labour market reforms, skills policy and higher income support. Greater collective bargaining and unionisation, bearing down on insecure work and increased access to training and skills would all help to raise incomes; but greater support through the social security system, eroded during the transition to universal credit, is also needed so that people are better off in work. 

It also proposes measures to alleviate the problem in the short term, ranging from increases in local housing allowance to changes in childcare payments made through Universal Credit, and a 20 per cent higher minimum wage for zero hours contracts

But it warns that without underlying long-term reforms, government will face a perpetual choice between paying constantly rising social security bills to offset growing in-work poverty – or allowing the number of working families in poverty to increase unchecked, as is currently the case. 

Clare McNeil, IPPR associate director and head of its Future Welfare State programme, said: “These shocking new figures should be a wake-up call for everyone concerned about our future.

“The UK economy’s dependence on ever-rising house prices, and the lack of affordable housing, have trapped us in a vicious circle which, unless broken, will condemn us either to a constantly rising social security bill, or to ever-increasing poverty among working households. 

“A growing private rented sector coupled with high rents enriches property owners at the expense of renters, and represents a transfer of wealth away from people who already have very little, into the hands of others who are steadily accumulating more.  

“We need an alternative to what the government calls ‘levelling up’. That should look beyond headline incomes to the true costs and obstacles people face when struggling to make work pay. Otherwise more and more families who were once ‘just about managing’ will join the growing number who are ‘no longer managing’. 

“Short-term fixes are needed to alleviate the immediate crisis, but to solve the underlying problem we need a far deeper rethink of housing, childcare, social security and work.” 

The Bishop of Dover, the Rt Revd Rose Hudson-Wilkin, who is a member of IPPR’s welfare state advisory panel, said: “The system is broken and it is our responsibility to see that it is changed. 

“Providing a home and building a future for your family is something we all strive for and this report shows that one in six households are trying as hard as they can but still finding it impossible to feed their families and provide a safe roof over their heads. 

The gulf between the rich and the poor is growing, as the pandemic showed us all too clearly. We must do more as a country to ensure that the resources we have been blessed with are shared more equally – now, and in the future.”

Youth unemployment could reach over 100,000 in Scotland this year

  • Over one in three of Scotland’s young workforce could be unemployed later this year – the highest ever level since records began
  • Urgent action needed over the coming weeks and months to meet the ‘100,000 challenge’ to provide 100,000 new opportunities for young people through learning or working.

IPPR Scotland has published new research which shows the scale of the youth unemployment challenge Scotland could face later this year.

In the think tank’s ‘central scenario’, based on forecasts from the UK Office of Budget Responsibility, youth unemployment in Scotland could surge past 100,000 young people later this year as the furlough schemes end and the UK as a whole enters a jobs crisis. This would see over one in three of Scotland’s young workforce (16-24 year olds looking for work) facing youth unemployment – the highest level since records began.

The think tank warns that youth unemployment could be worse than this in a reasonable worst-case ‘downside’ scenario, with over 140,000 young people unemployed by the end of 2020. In the ‘upside’ scenario, youth unemployment increases hugely, but stays around 80,000 and beneath the level seen following the 2008/09 financial crash. 

The ‘scarring effects’ of unemployment early in someone’s career are well-documented, with people who experience youth unemployment for a significant time facing a pay gap that many never close throughout the rest of their working lives. This could have significant implications for health and wellbeing and cause significant long-term damage to Scotland’s economy.

To protect a generation of young people, IPPR Scotland is calling for urgent action over the coming weeks to meet what it’s calling the ‘100,000 challenge’ – providing 100,000 new opportunities in Scotland across education, skills and employment.

This will need urgent action from government, colleges and universities, and employers in Scotland. The think tank is also calling on the UK Government to maintain support for jobs across the economy by replacing the furlough scheme with a ‘short-time work scheme’, as seen in France and Germany, that would see employers able to offer subsidised part-time work rather than being forced into laying people off.

The UK Government has announced a Kickstarter Job Scheme that is due to begin in the autumn, however details so far are lacking. Further details on the Scottish Government’s own £60m Scottish Youth Guarantee are also awaited. The think tank fears neither scheme is likely to reach the scale required as things stand.

Russell Gunson, Director of IPPR Scotland, said: “If these projections turn out to be true we will see youth unemployment on a scale we’ve never seen before in Scotland later this year.

“Over 100,000 young people – or more than one in three of Scotland’s young workforce – could be unemployed by the end of the year. This is unprecedented, and will need unprecedented action over the coming weeks and months without delay.

“While both the UK and Scottish governments have announced action to try to stave off youth unemployment, we have not yet seen the scale of action meet the scale of the challenge.

“As the school year starts and as we approach the new academic year for college and universities, we need to act now to help those without a place in education or training and without a job. That will need action from across Scotland – including government but also from businesses, employers, colleges and universities.

“We are facing a ‘100,000 challenge’ in Scotland. The question we must ask and urgently answer is: how do we create 100,000 new opportunities for young people in Scotland over the rest of this year?

“Through further additional college and university places, through even greater investment in learning and training, and through action by employers to try to protect opportunities for young people it is more than possible. But we must now act at a pace and a scale not yet seen.”

The Scottish Government continues to press UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Risho Sunak to extend the furlough scheme, which is due to end in October. It’s feared that, unless the scheme is extended, tens of thousands more workers will be made redundant.

A Digital Economy? Not Cashless, But Less Cash

Big Tech must open up data and help fund digital inclusion as UK economy moves away from cash in 2020s, says IPPR

  • New competition powers should compel big digital firms to share their data if they enter personal finance market – to prevent market domination and promote innovation
  • As UK heads to a ‘less cash, but not cashless’ digital economy, UK must step up investment in digital skills and connectivity to meet new inclusion targets

In a comprehensive review of the future of UK payments, the think tank IPPR has set out how the transition to a ‘less cash’, but not cashless, digital economy can be managed to protect the vulnerable and spread digital opportunities widely and fairly.

The digital transition is already happening fast. While in 2008 60 per cent of UK consumer payments were made in cash, this had fallen to just 28 per cent in 2018. The IPPR report cites forecasts that by 2028 fewer than one in 10 payments will be made in cash.

The digital revolution in finance means a shift to a considerably less cash-based digital economy, but the prospect of a fully cashless UK is not on the horizon, argues IPPR. This shift is expected to boost UK productivity and create opportunities for business and consumers, but there is a significant risk that people and areas reliant on cash may be excluded.

Giant tech firms such as Facebook and Amazon are already starting to offer more personal financial services, alongside traditional banks, but the control they could have over huge amounts of people’s data poses significant risks.

The IPPR report argues that as cash use continues to fall and digital payments break new ground, it is critical that policymakers take action to shape the future of UK payments.

To deliver a future that is both more digital and more just, IPPR recommends:

  • Major platforms such as Facebook and Amazon should be required to open up their data upon entry into the personal finance market. New powers should enable the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to impose conditions on market entry for major platforms, including requirement to comply with Open Banking principles and open-source technology. These should include an option to block market entry, including for major technology platforms, where it could lead to consumer detriment, slowing in innovation rates, or excessive market power.
  • Democratising data – Anonymised personal banking and financial service data should be held in a new public data trust, ‘Digital Britain’. This will strengthen competition, promote innovation and prevent monopolistic tech giants dominating the market.
  • Digital Transition Levy worth billions of pounds a year – Reforming the Banking Levy on banks and financial service providers to fund the delivery of digital inclusion schemes against new digital inclusion targets – boosting internet connectivity, strengthening digital skills and fostering innovation that will help people overcome the barriers to the digital economy. The new levy combined with new targets would mean that those who stand to gain most from the digital transition will have some of their gains reinvested in communities that risk being left behind.
  • Bridging the digital divide – More than 8 million UK adults still rely on cash and one in five people do not yet have the digital skills they need to access the digital economy. New targets and investment should be put in place to protect cash access for those who rely on it and to narrow the digital divide across the UK.
  • Protecting long-term access to cash – Between 2017 and 2018 6,243 cash machines have been closed – a 9 per cent drop in a single year. While there are still more UK ATMs in operation than at any point before 2006, this recent rate of decline is a cause for concern. To stem the decline of free-to-use ATMs, business rate rebates should be offered to operators who provide them, and retailers should be incentivised to roll out free cashback services.
  • Creating a new Post Bank – Between January 2015 and August 2019, 3,312 bank and building society branches closed in the UK, equivalent to 55 closures a month. The UK Treasury should oversee the creation of a publicly owned Post Bank with a public service mandate to provide basic banking services to all citizens. It would operate via the existing Post Office network and help ensure the future viability of the Post Office.
  • Championing digital self-employment – The government should develop a digital platform for self-employed workers, so they can better manage payments, streamline tax accounting and apply social security provision. This will not only save them time and boost tax revenues, but also help tackle fraud and financial crime by bringing the informal economy into the system.

IPPR argues that these proposals, amongst others in the report, will deliver a path to a digital economy that delivers not just greater prosperity, but greater economic justice: where more people can access better payments and banking services, data is harnessed for the public good and the most vulnerable people are protected.

The report notes that an increasingly digital economy brings faster payments, more personalised services and greater convenience for digital users. However, if these benefits are only available to digitally savvy people – typically younger people and those with higher incomes – inequality could be embedded into the future of finance, it warns.

IPPR urges the government to seize this moment to prevent all the gains from digitisation flowing to big tech firms and big finance and instead deliver excellent financial services for all, a competitive innovative personal finance market and democratic control of data.

Rachel Statham, IPPR Economic Analyst and lead report author, said: “The future will have less cash. But urgent action is needed to set the UK on course towards an economy that is both more digital and more just.

“By getting ahead now, we can invest the billions needed to get every part of the country ready for a more digital future and protect access to cash where people rely on it. This could see the potential benefits brought by a move away from cash invested to narrow rather than widen inequalities, handing control over from Big Tech and banks to people and communities.

“The move away from cash should only happen as fast as people are ready for, and the benefits of doing so should be shared. By setting new digital inclusion targets at the national, regional and local level, and investing to meet these targets, we can make sure bridge the digital divide and protect cash for those rely on it.”

Carys Roberts, head of the Centre for Economic Justice and IPPR Chief Economist, said: “There are opportunities within reach as the UK economy shifts away from cash and towards digital payments – from productivity increases to preventing fraud and financial crime.

“But there’s also a danger that the shift to digital, if not proactively shaped, will work for some and leave many behind. The government should enable everyone to take part in the digital economy and ensure powerful companies like Apple and Google play their full part in shaping a fairer move away from cash in the UK.”

Jenny Ross, Which? Money Editor, said: “While digital payments have brought great benefit to countless consumers, it is crucial that a balance is found that also protects cash for all those reliant on it – instead of stripping people of this vital payment method.

“With the cash landscape on the verge of collapse, it’s clear that industry alone cannot be relied upon to guarantee withdrawals – so the government and payments regulator must quickly step in with a plan to protect cash against the sweeping tide of bank branch and cashpoint closures.

“Ultimately, the government should legislate to give consumers confidence that they can access cash for as long as it is needed.”