Public Health Scotland (PHS) has published a new analysis of the possible future demand for healthcare services in Scotland over the next decade.
The analysis, which focusses on unplanned NHS hospital activity and is based on historic trends and projected demographic change, offers a best estimate of future demand if current trends continue.
The report, “Projecting Future Demand for Health and Care Services in Scotland (2024-2034) – A Focus on Unplanned Inpatient Admissions to Acute Hospitals”, estimates an 11.8% rise in unplanned hospital admissions between 2024 and 2034, from approximately 586,000 to 656,000. This projected growth appears to be driven primarily by the impacts of an ageing population.
This latest report builds on the work of the Scottish Burden of Disease study, which has highlighted potential future population health challenges across a wide range of health conditions.
This projected demand for healthcare services is far from inevitable and it is being used to plan for a healthier, better future for everyone. PHS’s extensive modelling of possible future demand has helped to inform the Scottish Government’s Population Health Framework, published yesterday (17 June).
Recognising that people’s health is about more than healthcare, the framework introduces a whole-system, whole-person approach to promoting health, preventing illness and tacking health inequalities.
Dr Fatim Lakha, Consultant in Public Health Medicine at PHS, said: “Our report estimates that, by 2034, Scotland’s NHS could be managing around 1,300 additional unplanned hospital admissions each week.
“A substantial part of this rise is expected to come from people aged 65 years and over, primarily driven by Scotland’s ageing population. Meanwhile, admissions amongst children under 18 years are expected to remain at similar levels, even though the number of people in this age group is decreasing.
“It is important to note that these projections are not inevitable. Every additional admission represents a person whose health issue might have been prevented through earlier action.
“Strengthening the building blocks of health – like secure income, fair employment, quality housing and education – offers the greatest opportunity to improve Scotland’s health and stop these projections becoming a reality.
“Reforming NHS services is also essential to managing rising demand. But without sustained action across both prevention and service redesign, pressures on hospitals are likely to continue, even as the quality of care itself improves.”
Dr Andrew Lee, Whole-systems Lead, at PHS, said: “We celebrate the fact that more people are now living longer, thanks to advances in public health. We must also ensure that, in these additional years, they also enjoy good health and a good quality of life.
“By acting now to improve health and wellbeing across the population, we can support a better quality of life in later years, ease pressure on healthcare services, and help to build a sustainable, future-ready NHS.”
