“If not now, when?”: Boris Johnson rolls the dice

On England’s so-called ‘Freedom Day’, PM Boris Johnson made a statement at a Downing Street press conference:

Good afternoon, today we’ve reached the fourth step on our roadmap and I know that with cases increasing steadily and with more and more people being asked to self-isolate, there will, of course, be those who would rather that we waited weeks or months longer and kept social distancing and all the restrictions that we have been placing on our lives.

And so I want to remind you all why I believe that taking this step now – however difficult it seems – and the logic remains the same that if we don’t open up now then we face a risk of even tougher conditions in the colder months when the virus has a natural advantage and we lose that firebreak of the school holiday.

And there comes a point when restrictions no longer prevent hospitalisations and deaths, but simply delay the inevitable. And so we have to ask ourselves the question: if not now, when?

And though both hospitalisations and deaths are sadly rising, these numbers are well within the margins of what our scientists predicted at the outset of the roadmap. And so it is right to proceed cautiously in the way that we are.

But it is also right to recognise that this pandemic is far from over. And that is why I’m afraid it is essential to keep up the system of Test, Trace and Isolate. I know how frustrating it is for all those who have been affected – or pinged and I want to explain that people identified as contacts of cases are at least five times more likely to be infected than others.

And even if they have been vaccinated there is a significant risk that they can still pass the disease on. And so as we go forward I’m afraid the continuing sacrifice of a large minority the continuing sacrifice of those who are being asked to isolate remains important to allow the rest of society to get back to something like normality.

And, at this stage, it is simply a consequence of living with Covid and opening up when cases are high in the way that they are.

As you know we will be moving on August the 16th to a system of testing rather than isolation for those who are double vaccinated by which time we hope that the wall of immunity in our country will be even higher.

And, in the meantime, I want to assure you that we will protect crucial services including the staffing of our hospitals and care homes, the supplies of food, water, electricity and medicines, the running of our trains, the protection of our borders and the defence of our realm, by making sure that a very small number of named, fully vaccinated, critical workers to leave isolation solely for this work.

But for the vast majority of us, myself included, I’m afraid we do need to stick with this system for now. And, of course, the only reason we are able to open up in this way at all, is that we have vaccinated such a large proportion of the population – and at such speed.

It is phenomenal that every adult in the country has now been offered a first dose. But unfortunately that does not mean that every person over 18 has yet had a first dose.

So far 96% of over 50s and 83% of 30-50 year olds have taken up the offer in England. But there are still 35 per cent of 18-30 year olds – 3 million people –who are completely unvaccinated.

And though we can see the enthusiasm of millions of young people to get their jabs, we need even more young adults to receive a protection that is of immense benefit to your family and friends – and to yourselves.

And so I would remind everybody that some of life’s most important pleasures and opportunities are likely to be increasingly dependent on vaccination.

There are already countries that require you to be double jabbed as a condition of quarantine free travel and that list seems likely to grow. And we are also concerned – as they are in other countries – by the continuing risk posed by nightclubs.

I don’t want to have to close nightclubs again – as they have elsewhere – but it does means nightclubs need to do the socially responsible thing and make use of the NHS Covid Pass which shows proof of vaccination, a recent negative test or natural immunity – as a means of entry.

As we said last week, we reserve the right to mandate certification at any point, if it is necessary to reduce transmission. And I should serve notice now that by the end of September – when all over 18s will have had the chance to be double jabbed –we are planning to make full vaccination the condition of entry to nightclubs and other venues where large crowds gather.

Proof of a negative test will no longer be sufficient. Let me stress – we want people to be able to take back their freedoms as they can today.

We want this country to be able to enjoy the fruits of our massive vaccination campaign. But to do that we must remain cautious and we must continue to get vaccinated.

And that is why we are asking you to come forward and get your jabs now.

In a statement to Parliament, Vaccine Minister Nadhim Zahawi set out self isolation exemptions for those in critical roles, JCVI advice on vaccination for children and upcoming rules for nightclubs

With permission, I would like to make a statement on the pandemic. Today marks an important milestone Mr Speaker in our fight against this virus, as we take Step 4 on our roadmap.

It is a long-awaited moment for the businesses who now can open their doors at long last, the happy couples who can have weddings without curbs on numbers and of course the people who can see more of their loved ones in care homes.

Although we have made huge advances Mr Speaker in our race between the vaccine and the virus, we are not at the finish line yet. Instead, we are entering what I believe to be the next stage. A stage where we continue with caution, while doing what it takes to manage the risk of this virus – which is still with us and still possess a threat. Cases and hospitalisations have risen over the past week, as we predicted Mr Speaker and we know that these numbers will get worse before they get better.

Although there’s never a perfect time to take this step, making the move today gives us the best chance of success. We’re cautiously easing restrictions when we have the natural firebreak of the school holidays and when the warmer weather gives us an advantage. So we will move forward, with caution, drawing on the defences we have built, as we set out in our five-point plan two weeks ago.

One of these five defences is the protective wall provided by our vaccination programme and I would like to start by updating the House on this life-saving work.

Our vaccination programme has given us extra legs in our race against this virus. The protection it has built up in people across the United Kingdom means the ratio between cases and hospitalisations is the lowest it has been during this pandemic.

This reinforces the need to protect as many people as we can, as quickly as we can and we made a four-week delay to Step 4 so we could do exactly that.

8 million more vaccinations in that period. We set the target of giving second doses to two-thirds of UK adults by today – and we hit that target last week, with five days to spare. We also pledged to offer a first dose of a vaccine to all adults — and we’ve met this target too.

And now almost 88 per cent of adults have taken up this offer – and although uptake amongst 18 to 30-year olds is much lower and needs to increase we are looking at this. So our work is not over yet. Just as we strive to reach the remaining adults who have not yet had first or second doses, we are already making our plans for the next stage.

Because we do not know how long immunity lasts and because coronavirus mutates, just like flu, we must stay one step ahead of the virus.

So we are drawing up plans for a potential booster programme — subject to advice, the final advice from the JCVI — so we can protect the most vulnerable ahead of winter.

And we are also looking at extending our vaccination programme so we can protect even more people. We asked the JCVI to consider whether children and young adults should be given the offer of a vaccine – and this advice has been published today.

Before I continue, allow me to apologise to you for mistakenly referencing to this on air this morning, before setting out the details in full before the House.

The JCVI considered not just the health impacts, but also the non-health impacts, like how education is disrupted by outbreaks in schools. I should reassure the House that the number of children and young people who have had severe outcomes from COVID is extremely low with a hospitalisation rate during the second wave of between 100 and 400 for every million.

And when we look at the small numbers that were hospitalised, most of them had severe underlying health conditions.

Today’s advice recommends that we continue to vaccinate 16 to 17-year-olds who are in an at-risk group , as we do now. But it also recommends expanding the offer of the vaccine to some younger children with underlying health conditions that put them at greater risk of COVID-19. This includes children aged 12 to 15 with severe neuro-disabilities, Down’s Syndrome, immunosuppression, and profound or multiple learning disabilities.

The JCVI advice also recommends offering a vaccine to children and young people aged 12 to 17 who live with someone who is immunosuppressed.

This means we can indirectly protect the immunosuppressed, who are at higher risk of serious disease from COVID-19 and may not generate a full immune response to vaccination. Finally, the JCVI advises that we should offer the vaccine to all 17-year-olds who are within three months of their 18th birthday, so we can make sure they are protected as soon as they turn 18.

Together with Health Ministers in all parts of the United Kingdom, the Secretary of State has accepted this advice and has asked the NHS to put it into action as soon as possible.

As we do this, we will be using the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, which is the only vaccine in the UK that’s been clinically authorised for people between the ages of 12 and 17. I know that people will have questions about what it means for them and their children. But I can assure them Mr Speaker that nobody needs to come forward at this stage.

The NHS will get in touch with them at the right time, and they will make sure that the jabs are delivered in a setting that meets their complex needs. We also asked the JCVI to consider rolling out vaccines out to all children and young people over the age of 12. And although we are not taking this step today, the JCVI is keeping this matter under review, and they will be looking at more data as it becomes available especially on children with a second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The steps we are taking today mean we will be offering even more vulnerable people the protection that a vaccine brings. And we will all be safer as a result.

We know that vaccines are our most important defence against this virus. This is especially the case in adult social care settings that are home to some of the people most vulnerable people in our communities who are vulnerable to a devastating impact from COVID-19.

So last week, this House passed regulations to make vaccination a condition of deployment in care homes – and the Lords will consider those regulations tomorrow.

These regulations are designed to help maximise vaccine uptake and protect some of our most vulnerable citizens. Yet I recognise the need for more detail on the Government’s analysis of the expected impact of these regulations.

So today we have published an Impact Statement – and we will be publishing a full Impact Assessment as soon as possible.

As we learn to live with COVID-19 we must be pragmatic about how we manage the risks we face. Self-isolation of positive cases and their close contacts remains one of the most effective tools we have for reducing transmission.

However, we recognise there are some very specific circumstances where there would be a serious risk of harm to public welfare if people in critical roles are unable to go to their workplace – like air-traffic controllers or train signallers.

So people in those kinds of roles who have received two vaccinations — plus two weeks beyond a second vaccine — will not need to self-isolate to perform those critical tasks. They will, however, have to continue to self-isolate at all other times.

The people eligible for this will receive personalised letters setting out the steps they must follow. Mr Speaker, this is a sensible and pragmatic step – and one that will be used sparingly and responsibly.

We are being similarly pragmatic at our borders. As my Right Honourable Friend, the Transport Secretary, has confirmed: UK residents arriving from amber countries who have been fully vaccinated will no longer have to quarantine – although they will still need to comply with necessary testing requirements.

This will not apply to France, due to the persistent presence of cases of the Beta variant, which was first identified in South Africa. We are doing everything in our power to restore international travel – and restore it safely. But new variants pose the greatest threat to our path out of this pandemic – and we will not hesitate to act in a similar way with any other country.

We will continue to keep a close eye on the data and be firm and decisive in how we protect the process we have made and the progress we have made. But the enduring message is this: getting vaccinated is the best way to ensure you can travel as freely as possible.

Vaccination also holds the key for doing the things we love doing here at home Mr Speaker. We are supporting the safe re-opening of large, crowded settings — such as nightclubs, as we saw last night, and music venues with the use of the NHS Covid Pass as a condition of entry, to reduce the risks of transmission. I encourage businesses to draw on this support and use the NHS COVID Pass in the weeks ahead.

We will be keeping a close watch on how it is used by venues, and we reserve the right Mr Speaker to mandate it if necessary. By the end of September, everyone aged 18 and over will have the chance to receive full vaccination – and the additional two weeks for that full protection to really take hold.

So at that point we plan to make full vaccination a condition of entry to nightclubs and other venues where large crowds gather. Proof of a negative test will no longer be sufficient.

Any decisions will, of course, be subject to parliamentary scrutiny – and we will ensure the appropriate exemptions for those who have genuine medical reasons for why they can’t get vaccinated. And I am clear: we will always look at the evidence available and do all we can to ensure people can continue to do the things they love.

Our vaccination programme has put us on the road to recovery. We should all be proud of how this national effort is helping us take steps towards a more normal life.

But we must keep reinforcing that wall of protection. Getting the jab. Getting the second jab if you’ve had the first. And getting the booster shot if you’re asked to come forward.

And with such a deadly virus – and the continued threat of new variants – our wall of protection must be more than just vaccines alone. We must continue to do all the other sensible things we know can keep the virus at bay. Getting tested. Considering the advice. And continuing to act with caution.

Taken together, Mr Speaker, this will help us all enjoy these new experiences – and safely slow the spread of this deadly virus.

I commend this statement to the House.

Self-isolation for ALL travellers returning from France

Beta variant may evade vaccines, experts warn

Decision taken to protect public health in Scotland

Fully vaccinated travellers returning to Scotland from France will still be required to self-isolate from tommorow (Monday 19 July).

The decision follows concerns about the persistence of Beta variant cases in France, given this variant – also known as B.1.351 – may evade vaccine protection. It means that anyone who has been in France in the previous 10 days will need to quarantine on arrival to Scotland in their own accommodation and will need a day two and day eight coronavirus (COVID-19) test, regardless of their vaccination status.

From Monday 19 July, travellers from other amber list countries will not be asked to self-isolate if they have been fully vaccinated through the NHS in the UK and 14 days have passed since their second vaccination.

Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero, Energy and Transport Michael Matheson said: “Nobody wants travel restrictions in place for any longer than is absolutely necessary.

“We have been clear that the green, amber and red lists can change at short notice. It important we act quickly to limit the risk of importation of variants of concern which could undermine the rollout of our vaccine programme.”

UK Health and Social Care Secretary Sajid Javid said: “We have always been clear that we will not hesitate to take rapid action at our borders to stop the spread of COVID-19 and protect the gains made by our successful vaccination programme.

“With restrictions lifting on Monday across the country, we will do everything we can to ensure international travel is conducted as safely as possible, and protect our borders from the threat of variants.”

It was announced last night that Mr Javid has tested positive for Covid.

Mr Javid met with the Prime Minister and the Chancellor on Friday, and both Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak should be self-isolating.

By good fortune, though, our heroes won’t have to go through this tiresome self-isolation inconvenience – it seems the plucky pair are participants in a ‘pilot programme’ in which daily tests replace that tedious self-isolation. How fortunate is that !!

BUT WAIT …

REVERSE FERRET ALERT!!!

CHANGE OF PLAN: The prime minister and chancellor will now self-isolate as normal after contact with Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who tested positive for coronavirus.

Case numbers continue to rise ahead of the lifting of rules on social contact in England tomorrow, so-called ‘Freedom Day’. Respected epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson said this morning that 100,000 cases per day are ‘almost inevitable’.

Some freedom …

More information on international travel and quarantine

Johnson confirms ‘Freedom Day’ goes ahead in England on 19 July

Step 4 of the Roadmap to go ahead on Monday 19 July
Prime Minister emphasises caution and personal responsibility
Cases continue to rise but link with hospitalisations and deaths weakened

Step 4 of the Roadmap will proceed as planned on Monday 19 July, the Prime Minister confirmed yesterday.

Moving to Step 4 is a balance of risks and the public should continue to be cautious. The majority of covid restrictions will end on 19 July and guidance will emphasise personal responsibility.

The latest data and modelling show that the government’s “four tests” for easing covid restrictions have been met.

The four tests are:

The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated.
Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern.

Cases will continue to rise as set out from the start of the Roadmap, but the vaccination programme has substantially weakened the link between infection and serious illness or death.

Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise over the coming weeks and months, but both are far lower than the previous wave. The current data does not suggest that unsustainable pressure will be put on the NHS but all data will be kept under constant review.

As of 12 July there are 28,421 new positive cases in England. 461 people were admitted to hospital with covid and there are 2,352 patients in hospital. The latest ONS estimates show that 1 in 160 people have covid in England.

The move to Step 4 was delayed by 4 weeks so more adults could be vaccinated. Nearly 7 million vaccines have already been administered during the delay.

By 19 July two thirds of adults will have received two doses and every adult will have been offered a first dose.

The delay to Step 4 has also moved the end of restrictions closer to the school summer holidays.

All adults should take up the offer of two vaccine doses, to protect themselves and others against covid. Analysis from Public Health England (PHE) and the University of Cambridge suggests that vaccines have so far prevented an estimated 8.5 million infections and 30,000 deaths in England alone.

Data from PHE suggests that one dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 80% effective against hospitalisations with the Delta variant, increasing to 96% after two doses.

The Prime Minister has today emphasised caution and the expectation for a gradual easing of restrictions, based on informed choice and personal responsibility. Last week he set out a five-point plan to manage the risks while learning to live with covid.

The vaccination programme will continue and all adults will be offered two doses by mid-September. Dependent on final JCVI advice the booster programme will begin from September, offering additional protection to the most vulnerable.

The majority of legal restrictions will be removed and people will be expected to protect themselves and others through informed choice. The government expects and recommends that face coverings are worn in crowded and enclosed spaces, such as public transport, when mixing with people you don’t normally meet.

While the government is no longer instructing people to work from home, a return to the workplace should be gradual and businesses should follow the published guidance.

Organisations and large events will be supported and encouraged to use the NHS COVID Pass in high-risk settings to help limit the risk of infection in their venues.

Positive cases and contacts of positive cases identified by NHS Test and Trace will still be legally required to self-isolate, to help break chains of transmission. There will be an isolation exemption for contacts of positive cases for under 18s and for double vaccinated adults from 16 August. School bubbles will end from 19 July.

Quarantine rules will remain for all those travelling from a red list country, and for amber list countries unless double vaccinated.

All data will be kept under review, and contingency measures will be retained to manage periods of higher risk, such as winter. Guidance will be strengthened if needed, but restrictions will be avoided if possible due to their significant economic, social and health costs.

The government will review the current guidance in September.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a statement at a coronavirus press conference last night:

Like millions of people across this country I woke up this morning sad and rueful, but also filled with pride and hope and with thanks to Gareth Southgate and the whole England squad for the best campaign by any England team in any tournament that I can remember.

They made history. They lifted our spirits – and they brought joy to this country and I know that they will continue to do so.

And to those who have been directing racist abuse at some of the players, I say shame one you, and I hope you will crawl back under the rock from which you emerged.

Because the entire team played like heroes and I’m sure that this is just the beginning of their achievements. I say bring on Qatar next year, and let’s also dare to start to hope that together with Ireland our United Kingdom can host the World Cup in 2030.

Turning now to step four of our roadmap, we’ve come to a stage in the pandemic when there is no easy answer or obvious date for unlocking. We have cases rising significantly – with more than 30,000 per day. And we can see what is happening across Europe as the Delta variant takes hold among our friends.

We know we’re going to see more hospitalisations and more deaths from Covid. But we also know that this wave was clearly foreseen by our scientists when we first set out that roadmap in February.

And if anything, so far, we are in the middle range of their projections for infections and at the lower end of their projections for mortality.

And we also know that if we were now to delay this 4th step – for instance to September or later – then we would be re-opening as the weather gets colder and as the virus acquires a greater natural advantage and when schools are back.

And so we think now is the right moment to proceed, when we have the natural firebreak of the school holidays in the next few days. And Chris and Patrick will set out, in just a minute, how we are meeting the four tests for step 4 in England.

But it is absolutely vital that we proceed now with caution. And I cannot say this powerfully or emphatically enough. This pandemic is not over. This disease coronavirus continues to carry risks for you and for your family.

We cannot simply revert instantly from Monday 19th July to life as it was before Covid.

We will stick to our plan to lift legal restrictions and to lift social distancing, but we expect and recommend that people wear a face covering in crowded and enclosed spaces where you come into contact with those you don’t normally meet, such as on public transport.

We’re removing the Government instruction to work from home where you can but we don’t expect that the whole country will return to their as one desks from Monday. And we’re setting out guidance for business for a gradual return to work over the summer.

And as a matter of social responsibility we’re urging nightclubs and other venues with large crowds to make use of the NHS Covid Pass – which shows proof of vaccination, a recent negative test or natural immunity – as a means of entry.

We’re updating our guidance for the Clinically Extremely Vulnerable on how they can keep themselves safe and I generally urge everyone to keep thinking of others and to consider the risks.

We’ll keep our tough border policy, including quarantine for those arriving from red list countries.

And we’ll keep the test, trace and isolate system in place.

Every week that goes by we are getting hundreds of thousands more jabs into arms and our delay to the road map that we announced last month has enabled us to get 7 million more jabs in the last 4 weeks alone.

By next Monday, two-thirds of adults will have received a second dose and every adult will have been offered a first dose.

And it is the single most crucial thing now that you get that jab. A jab that could protect you and your family – and allow you, for instance, to go on holiday.

And it is of course only thanks to the vaccine programme that we are able to take these cautious steps now. But to take these steps we must be cautious and we must be vaccinated.

So please get that jab.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will announce this afternoon whether Scotland’s Covid-19 restrictions will be eased as planned in the weeks ahead.

Freedom … with a warning

The Prime Minister will host a press conference this afternoon (Monday 12th July) to confirm whether England can move to step 4 of the Roadmap.

Step 4 is expected to begin next Monday – so-called ‘Freedom Day’ (19th July) – if the UK government’s “four tests” for easing Covid restrictions in England have been met.

The Health and Social Care Secretary will announce the plans to parliament.

England’s four tests are:

The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern

The Prime Minister is expected to urge the public to remain vigilant and exercise caution, praising the efforts of the country for the progress made so far while warning that the pandemic is not over and that caution will be key in the coming weeks.

The latest data will be presented, with current modelling suggesting that Covid cases will continue to rise as restrictions are eased. Hospitalisations, serious illness and deaths will also continue, albeit at a much lower level than before the vaccination programme.

As of 10th July, a total of 80.3 million vaccine doses have been administered in the UK, with 45.7 million adults receiving a first dose (86.9%) and 34.5 million adults receiving both doses (65.6%).

The move to step 4 was delayed by up to four weeks so every adult could be offered a vaccine. 6.8 million first and second doses have already been administered in England during the delay so far.

The delay has also moved the probable end of restrictions to a point closer to the school summer holidays in England, when transmission is expected to be lower. Reopening at a point later in the year may increase pressure on the NHS because of winter illnesses such as flu

Analysis from Public Health England (PHE) and the University of Cambridge suggests that vaccines have so far prevented an estimated 8.5 million infections and 30,000 deaths in England alone.

Wherever you live, it is vital that people keep coming forward to get both jabs when called, with data from PHE showing COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective against hospitalisation from the Delta variant.

The analysis suggests the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective and the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 92% effective against hospitalisation after two doses.

The vaccination rollout will continue to accelerate by bringing forward second doses for under 40s to eight weeks – meaning the entire population will benefit from maximum protection more quickly.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: “We are tantalisingly close to the final milestone in our roadmap out of lockdown, but the plan to restore our freedoms must come with a warning.

“While the phenomenal vaccine rollout has offered every adult some protection against the virus, and the crucial link between cases, hospitalisations and deaths is weakened, the global pandemic is not over yet.

“Cases will rise as we unlock, so as we confirm our plans today, our message will be clear. Caution is absolutely vital, and we must all take responsibility so we don’t undo our progress, ensuring we continue to protect our NHS.”

The Scottish Cabinet will meet tomorrow to discuss the latest situation in Scotland and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will update parliament on our next steps in the afternoon.

BMA urges UK Government not to ‘throw progress away’ and to keep some Covid-safe measures in place

The British Medical Association is urging the Government to keep some targeted measures to control the spread of Covid-19 in place after 19 July in England, amid a continued worrying rise in case numbers.

Weekly cases in England are up 74% on the previous seven days, while the number of people admitted to hospitals in England with Covid-19 has risen by 55% over the last week.

The 19th of July – in just over two weeks’ time – is the earliest time the Government has said it will consider removing all legal restrictions, however both the Prime Minister and the new Health and Social Care Secretary have indicated that some measures could stay beyond this date – something the BMA says is crucial to stop spiralling case numbers having a devastating impact on people’s health, the NHS, the economy and education.

The BMA says these measures and support should include:

Ongoing requirements to wear a mask in enclosed public spaces, such as public transport, shops, healthcare settings and in communal areas in educational settings, where adequate ventilation and distancing are often not possible.
Significantly improved public messaging and education, emphasising that while the virus continues to circulate, practising social distancing and meeting outdoors or in well-ventilated spaces – and wearing masks when this is not possible – remains the best way to reduce risk of infection and keep yourself safe.
Greater guidance and support for businesses and educational settings to create sustainable, Covid-secure environments, as well as enforcement of standards.
Emphasis on the importance of good ventilation, including setting legal standards. Financial and other support for businesses and educational settings must be made available to implement these requirements ahead of the autumn and winter period, when respiratory viruses spread more easily and buildings must be kept warm, limiting options for natural ventilation.

Dr Chaand Nagpaul, BMA council chair, said: “As case numbers continue to rise at an alarming rate due to the rapid transmission of the Delta variant and an increase in people mixing with one another, it makes no sense to remove restrictions in their entirety in just over two weeks’ time.

“The promise was to make decisions based on data and not dates, and while we were pleased to see the Government react to data in delaying the easing on 21 June last month, ministers must not now simply disregard the most recent, damning, numbers by rushing into meeting their new 19th July deadline.

“It’s not a binary decision of ‘all or nothing’, and the sensible, cautious measures that we are proposing, will be vital in minimising not just the impact of rising case numbers on people’s individual health and the health service, but also wider damage to the economy and society, caused by even further waves, new variants and lockdowns.

“We have made excellent progress with both the vaccination campaign and individual action from people across the country over the last 18 months, and the Government must absolutely not throw this away at this critical juncture.

“While the vaccination programme continues at pace, a significant proportion of people remain either unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. This is on top of those who cannot receive the jab or the small number for whom immunisation will be ineffective.

“Neither will all those vaccinated by 19th July be properly protected given it takes about two weeks after the second dose to confer maximum immunity. This means we are still some way from protecting enough of the population from this devastating illness to control the spread.

“Meanwhile although hospitalisations remain relatively low in comparison to the steep rise in cases, the numbers are increasing at pace, with twice as many Covid patients in beds and on ventilators than this time last month.

“This is a particular worry for doctors and their colleagues who are faced with a record backlog of care put on hold by the first waves of the pandemic, and in which even modest increases in hospital admissions will undermine treating the 5 million patients currently on waiting lists.

“Even if people aren’t getting admitted to hospital at the same rate, spiralling levels of community transmission provides a fertile ground for new, potentially vaccine-resistant variants to develop.

“Also worrying is evidence that one in 10 people suffer longer-term impacts of long-Covid after even a mild infection, with an estimated 2 million people in England having lived with long-lasting symptoms. These factors could have serious consequences for the NHS and public health teams as well as business, education and wider society – therefore stemming the spread of the virus in the community with a series of manageable, targeted measures must be the priority right now.

“Everyone appreciates the efforts and sacrifices we have all made so far to suppress the spread of the virus, and it would be tragic if we were to undo this good work now. We are not asking for a full delay on 19th July, rather a series of sensible, targeted measures that will help prevent transmission of the virus while having a minimal impact on people’s daily lives.

“Our appeal is to both the Government to keep appropriate measures in place, and to the public to continue acting in a careful, responsible manner – giving other people space, wearing face coverings in areas where physical distancing isn’t possible and recognising that the virus won’t simply stop posing a serious danger in two weeks’ time.”

Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon insisted yesterday that Scotland’s so-called ‘Freedom Day’is still on track for August, despite a huge surge in coronavirus cases that threatens to pile further pressure on hospitals and health services struggling to cope.

She urged people to get vaccinated at yesterday’s Coronavirus media briefing:

Good afternoon. Thanks for joining Jason and I. There are a few issues I want to cover today – including some important information about vaccinations.

But I will start with a summary of today’s statistics.

The total number of positive cases reported yesterday was 3,823.

That is 10.8% of all of the tests carried out.

The total number of confirmed cases now stands at 289,279.

There are 285 people currently in hospital – which is 10 more than yesterday.

And 19 people are in intensive care, which is 3 more than yesterday.

Unfortunately 4 deaths were reported in the past 24 hours, and that takes the total number of deaths under our daily definition, is now 7,726.

As always, my condolences are with everyone who has been bereaved.

Let me also briefly update on the vaccination programme.

As of this morning, 3,831,770 people have received a first dose of the vaccine.

That’s an increase of 15,519 since yesterday.

In addition, 14,622 people got a second dose yesterday. That brings the total number of second doses to 2,737,347. Now today’s vaccine numbers actually take us across quite a significant milestone. More than 60% of those eligible for the vaccine have now had both doses, but as of today, more than 50% of the entire population is now fully vaccinated. That is an important milestone and one that will be increasing our levels of protection against this virus.

I have a couple of points that I want to cover before I reflect on the overall course of the pandemic, and stress some of our key public health messages, which are of particular importance given the high number of cases that are being reported right now.

The first is to confirm that further funding for Covid matters is being made available to health boards today.

Almost £380 million is being allocated to help with additional costs this year – including for the vaccination programme, the test and protect system, and personal and protective equipment.

This is on top of the £1.7 billion for Covid which was allocated last year to Health Boards and Health and Social Care Partnerships.

Further funding will of course be made available as necessary over the course of the year.

Although we hope we are in the process of emerging from the pandemic, we can see from the situation at the moment, that Covid will continue to place pressures on our health and care services – so we will continue to ensure that they have all the funding that they need to respond to those pressures.

The second point I want to cover relates to vaccination. Getting vaccinated is probably the single most important thing any of us can do right now.

That’s why I strongly welcome a joint statement that has been issued this morning by business organisations and the Scottish Government. It urges people to get vaccinated – and also urges employers to encourage and support employees to get vaccinated.

The statement recognizes that a successful vaccination programme is crucial obviously for our public health, but if it protects our public health then it will always also be good for the economy. So anything employers can do to support people to get vaccinated, will be beneficial for them, as well as for their workers.

That said, the Government has the primary responsibility for ensuring that the vaccination programme is effective – and we are working with health boards to make sure it is as accessible as possible.

I am therefore pleased to confirm today that from Monday, all mainland health boards will offer drop-in vaccination centres for all adults.

These centres will be able to provide first doses to anyone over the age of 18 who has not had a first dose yet. They will also be open for second doses to anyone who had their first dose 8 or more weeks ago, and has not yet had their second dose.

So if you haven’t had a first dose yet – or if you are now due for a second dose – from Monday, you’ll be able to visit a drop-in centre in order to get one. And let me stress, you can do this even if you have had a letter giving you an appointment, or if you have missed an appointment. If you’d rather turn up next week to drop in, you can do that even if you’ve had an appointment scheduled for a week or two from now.

Two health boards – Greater Glasgow and Clyde, and Lothian – will also be providing mobile vaccination units as drop-in centres in some areas, and that is about helping, effectively, to take vaccine to people where we perhaps think there has been particular challenges with uptake.

Information about the drop-in vaccination centres in your health board area, will be available online, so I would encourage you to check this out over the weekend. You can also find out more through the NHS Inform website, or by following your health board area on social media.

Appointments of course will still be scheduled, so if it does suit you better to wait for a scheduled appointment, and you find that more convenient, that is fine.

Everyone in Scotland who is over 18 should now have received an appointment date for a first jag. If you haven’t, then you can turn up at a drop-in clinic – but you can also self-register on the NHS Inform site and get an appointment scheduled.

You can also use the NHS Inform website to rearrange the time or location of your appointment if you need to.

Basically, what we are trying to do is make it as easy and as accessible for as many as possible, so you can turn up from next week to a drop-in centre, you can keep your scheduled appointment, you can rearrange your scheduled appointment. Any of these ways is going to be possible because we want as many people getting these jags as possible.

The importance our vaccination programme is especially evident now. We are continuing to deal with a surge in new cases, heavily driven by the dominance of the Delta variant of the virus.

Vaccination is the reason that surge in cases has not led to the re-imposition of a strict lockdown – as it would have done at any earlier stage in the pandemic.

But now, the vaccines are doing much of the work that lockdown measures previously had to do.

We’ve discussed quite a lot recently the fact that vaccination is weakening the link between new cases, and serious health harms.

For example the proportion of people who get Covid, who now require hospital treatment, fell from around 13% in January, to 3% at the start of June. We continue to monitor that very closely.

All of that is positive.

But – and this is quite a significant but that I’m very deliberately injecting at this stage – all of us do still need to play a part, over and above getting vaccinated to make sure we get through this next period as safely as possible.

The rise in cases is a reminder that we still need to be cautious.

This variant of the virus is spreading quickly, and it is still potentially dangerous.

No vaccine is 100% effective. But these ones are very effective – after two doses. So even if you still get the virus, your chances of becoming very ill with it are much reduced.

That should give assurance to people – especially those who are older or living with other health conditions. I know many of you in particular will be worried right now as you see cases continuing to spike.

I want to assure you that we are not complacent about this. Our priority is to extend vaccine coverage as quickly as possible. That is our best line of protection.

But we are also encouraging renewed caution on behalf of the population while we do so.

Because our biggest vulnerability just now is that there are still, notwithstanding the success of the programme, a lot of people who do not yet have the protection of both doses.

That is why we are making it easier for people to get vaccinated. We are vaccinating as quickly as supplies – and also the clinical advice on timing of second doses – allows us to do.

While we do this, our collective priority must be to do all we can to slow the virus down. That really matters.

The fact is if cases continue to rise as they have been doing, then – despite the effectiveness of the vaccine – we will see pressure build on the NHS. And of course a lot of people being unwell.

Even if only 3% of cases need hospital care now – compared to 13% at the start of the year – on the case numbers we are seeing just now, that will still be a lot of people ending up in hospital.

We should also remember, many people who get Covid but don’t end up in hospital – including many younger people – could still suffer health harms such as long Covid.

I know everyone is tired of hearing this, but I must say again as we do see, we hope, the end point to restrictions in sight, for now we must be careful, especially for these next few weeks while we continue to get the protection from vaccination extended as far as possible.

There are three key things in particular that we all need to do just now.

Firstly – as I have said, vaccination is what will get us out of this.

So make sure that you get vaccinated when you are invited to do so, or turn up next week to a drop-in clinic and get vaccinated then. Just to remind everybody, that applies to all adults who haven’t had a first dose yet. Even if you’ve missed an appointment, don’t worry about that, you can turn up and get your first dose now. And if you’ve had your first dose 8 weeks or more ago, you can turn up to get your second dose at one of these drop-in centres.

Vaccination is how we protect ourselves and it is how we get out of this, so please make sure you’re playing your part by getting both jags as soon as it is possible for you to do so.

Second, please use the opportunities to get tested regularly – this is especially important if you are planning to visit somewhere or visit somebody. Take a lateral flow test before you go just to give that added bit of reassurance.

Free lateral flow tests are available through the NHS inform website.

You can have them sent to you in the post. You can also now collect them from local and regional test sites, or from community pharmacies.

And of course if you test positive through one of these lateral flow devices – or if you have symptoms of the virus – please make sure that you self-isolate, and book a PCR test as quickly as possible. That’s vitally important.

And finally, continue to follow the key rules where you live and all the basic but really important public health advice – for example on physical distancing, hand-washing and face coverings.

Stay outdoors as much as you can if you’re meeting other people.

And if you are meeting people indoors, which in limited numbers is now allowed, please stick to the limits on group sizes, and open the windows. Make sure you’re washing your hands and surfaces, and keeping the room as ventilated as possible.

That still applies, of course, if you are watching the football or the tennis.

If you’re planning to watch the quarter finals of the Euros this weekend, please remember the indoor gathering limits and remember all of the advice that helps keep that environment as risk free as it’s possible to do.

So these are the things that we need to continue to observe right now.

Get vaccinated, get tested and follow the guidance, and where applicable follow the rules.

We are all utterly sick of this. I do believe, just as I have said up until now, that we are seeing the end in sight. But whether we get to that end point, though vaccination, safely or whether we get to it with lots of pressure on our NHS, lots more people getting this virus, comes down to how all of us behave and how successful we are in slowing down the virus while the vaccines get ahead and ultimately win the race for us.

So thank you very much for your continued patience, thank you for your continued observance of all of this, and please for these next few weeks let’s all stick with it to get us through this.

COVID recovery: Easing on hold as Johnson presses pause button

Prime Minister: “We must learn to live with COVID”

Step 4 of England’s Roadmap paused for four weeks while vaccination programme is accelerated following significant rise in more transmissible variant
Second dose brought forward to 8 weeks for over 40s to provide strongest protection against Delta variant sooner
Restrictions to be lifted on weddings and wakes on 21 June

Step 4 will be delayed by up to four weeks in England and the vaccination programme accelerated to respond to the rapid spread of the Delta variant, the Prime Minister confirmed yesterday.

Scotland’s First Minister will give an update on Scotland’s plans later today. At present it’s planned that Scotland would move to Level 0 on 28 June, but concerns over rising numbers of the Delta variant make it likely that the date will be put back.

By 19 July, all adults in England will have been offered a first dose and around two thirds of all adults will have been offered two doses of the vaccine.

Data suggests that the Delta variant is between 40% and 80% more transmissible than the Alpha variant and is rapidly driving up case numbers.

There are currently around 8,000 cases a day, the highest since the end of February, and these are increasing by around 64% each week.

Hospitalisations are starting to rise, with the average number of people admitted to hospital increasing in England by 50% per week, and 61% per week in the North-West.

Our successful vaccination programme is weakening the link between cases and hospitalisations, but the latest evidence shows that two doses are needed to provide effective protection against the Delta variant.

The Roadmap has always been led by data and not dates, and the government’s four tests have not been met. In order to offer two vaccine doses to more people, prevent thousands of unnecessary deaths and protect the NHS, Step 4 will be delayed by up to four weeks to Monday 19 July. If the data rapidly improves this could be brought forward to 5 July.

The four tests are:

The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern

Two vaccine doses have now been shown to be highly effective in reducing hospitalisation from the Delta variant, with the latest PHE data suggesting this could be up to 96% for Pfizer-BioNTech and 92% for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.

All adults aged 18 and over will now be offered a first dose by 19 July, 2 weeks earlier than planned. All adults aged 23 and 24 will be able to book their first dose from tomorrow (15 June).

By 19 July, all those aged over 50 and the clinically extremely vulnerable will have been offered their second dose, and those second doses will have taken effect.

Second doses for all over 40s will be accelerated by reducing the dosing interval from 12 weeks to 8 weeks. All over 40s who received a first dose by mid-May will be offered a second dose by 19 July.

The school holidays in England begin at the end of July, further reducing transmission among the younger age groups. Step 3 restrictions will continue in their current format with the following exceptions implemented from 21 June. No restrictions will be reimposed.

The 30-person limit will be lifted for weddings and wakes. There will be no set limit on the number of attendees, but venues must adhere to covid secure guidance, maintain social distancing and provide table service. All weddings in private settings, such as gardens, must have completed a covid risk assessment to ascertain how many guests they can host safely.

Event pilots will continue, including some Euro 2020 matches, Wimbledon, and some arts and music performances. Attendees will show proof of vaccination or a recent negative test.

Care home residents will no longer need to isolate if they leave their residence. Exceptions will include high risk visits including overnight stays in hospital.

Cases are expected to continue rising due to the transmissibility of the Delta variant, but with the acceleration of the vaccination programme hospitalisations are expected to stabilise.

Additional support is available for areas with high cases rates of the Delta variant, including surge testing, isolation support, and efforts to maximise vaccination uptake.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a statement at a press conference last night:

When we set out on our roadmap to freedom a few months ago, we were determined to make progress that was cautious but irreversible. And step by step – thanks to the enormous efforts of the British people and the spectacular vaccine roll-out we now have one of the most open economies and societies in this part of the world.

And as we have always known and as the February roadmap explicitly predicted – this opening up has inevitably been accompanied by more infection and more hospitalisation. Because we must be clear that we cannot simply eliminate Covid – we must learn to live with it. And with every day that goes by we are better protected by the vaccines and we are better able to live with the disease.

Vaccination greatly reduces transmission and two doses provide a very high degree of protection against serious illness and death. But there are still millions of younger adults who have not been vaccinated and sadly a proportion of the elderly and vulnerable may still succumb even if they have had two jabs.

And that is why we are so concerned by the Delta variant that is now spreading faster than the third wave predicted in the February roadmap. We’re seeing cases growing by about 64 per cent per week, and in the worst affected areas, it’s doubling every week.

And the average number of people being admitted to hospital in England has increased by 50 per cent week on week, and by 61 per cent in the North West, which may be the shape of things to come. Because we know the remorseless logic of exponential growth and even if the link between infection and hospitalisation has been weakened it has not been severed.

And even if the link between hospitalisation and death has also been weakened, I’m afraid numbers in intensive care, in ICU are also rising. And so we have faced a very difficult choice. We can simply keep going with all of step 4 on June 21st even though there is a real possibility that the virus will outrun the vaccines and that thousands more deaths would ensue that could otherwise have been avoided.

Or else we can give our NHS a few more crucial weeks to get those remaining jabs into the arms of those who need them. And since today I cannot say that we have met all four tests for proceeding with step four, I do think it is sensible to wait just a little longer.

By Monday 19th July we will aim to have double jabbed around two thirds of the adult population including everyone over 50, all the vulnerable, all the frontline health and care workers and everyone over 40 who received their first dose by mid-May. And to do this we will now accelerate the 2nd jabs for those over 40 – just as we did for the vulnerable groups – so they get maximum protection as fast as possible.

And we will bring forward our target to give every adult in this country a first dose by 19th July that is including young people over the age of 18 with 23 and 24 year olds invited to book jabs from tomorrow – so we reduce the risk of transmission among groups that mix the most.

And to give the NHS that extra time we will hold off step 4 openings until July 19th except for weddings that can still go ahead with more than 30 guests provided social distancing remains in place and the same will apply to wakes. And we will continue the pilot events – such as Euro2020 and some theatrical performances.

We will monitor the position every day and if after 2 weeks we have concluded that the risk has diminished then we reserve the possibility of proceeding to Step 4 and full opening sooner.

As things stand – and on the basis of the evidence I can see right now – I am confident we will not need any more than 4 weeks and we won’t need to go beyond July 19th. It is unmistakably clear the vaccines are working and the sheer scale of the vaccine roll-out has made our position incomparably better than in previous waves.

But now is the time to ease off the accelerator because by being cautious now we have the chance – in the next four weeks – to save many thousands of lives by vaccinating millions more people.

And once the adults of this country have been overwhelmingly vaccinated, which is what we can achieve in a short space of time, we will be in a far stronger position to keep hospitalisations down, to live with this disease, and to complete our cautious but irreversible roadmap to freedom.