- Step 4 of the Roadmap to go ahead on Monday 19 July
- Prime Minister emphasises caution and personal responsibility
- Cases continue to rise but link with hospitalisations and deaths weakened
Step 4 of the Roadmap will proceed as planned on Monday 19 July, the Prime Minister confirmed yesterday.
Moving to Step 4 is a balance of risks and the public should continue to be cautious. The majority of covid restrictions will end on 19 July and guidance will emphasise personal responsibility.
The latest data and modelling show that the government’s “four tests” for easing covid restrictions have been met.
The four tests are:
- The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
- Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated.
- Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
- Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern.
Cases will continue to rise as set out from the start of the Roadmap, but the vaccination programme has substantially weakened the link between infection and serious illness or death.
Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise over the coming weeks and months, but both are far lower than the previous wave. The current data does not suggest that unsustainable pressure will be put on the NHS but all data will be kept under constant review.
As of 12 July there are 28,421 new positive cases in England. 461 people were admitted to hospital with covid and there are 2,352 patients in hospital. The latest ONS estimates show that 1 in 160 people have covid in England.
The move to Step 4 was delayed by 4 weeks so more adults could be vaccinated. Nearly 7 million vaccines have already been administered during the delay.
By 19 July two thirds of adults will have received two doses and every adult will have been offered a first dose.
The delay to Step 4 has also moved the end of restrictions closer to the school summer holidays.
All adults should take up the offer of two vaccine doses, to protect themselves and others against covid. Analysis from Public Health England (PHE) and the University of Cambridge suggests that vaccines have so far prevented an estimated 8.5 million infections and 30,000 deaths in England alone.
Data from PHE suggests that one dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 80% effective against hospitalisations with the Delta variant, increasing to 96% after two doses.
The Prime Minister has today emphasised caution and the expectation for a gradual easing of restrictions, based on informed choice and personal responsibility. Last week he set out a five-point plan to manage the risks while learning to live with covid.
The vaccination programme will continue and all adults will be offered two doses by mid-September. Dependent on final JCVI advice the booster programme will begin from September, offering additional protection to the most vulnerable.
The majority of legal restrictions will be removed and people will be expected to protect themselves and others through informed choice. The government expects and recommends that face coverings are worn in crowded and enclosed spaces, such as public transport, when mixing with people you don’t normally meet.
While the government is no longer instructing people to work from home, a return to the workplace should be gradual and businesses should follow the published guidance.
Organisations and large events will be supported and encouraged to use the NHS COVID Pass in high-risk settings to help limit the risk of infection in their venues.
Positive cases and contacts of positive cases identified by NHS Test and Trace will still be legally required to self-isolate, to help break chains of transmission. There will be an isolation exemption for contacts of positive cases for under 18s and for double vaccinated adults from 16 August. School bubbles will end from 19 July.
Quarantine rules will remain for all those travelling from a red list country, and for amber list countries unless double vaccinated.
All data will be kept under review, and contingency measures will be retained to manage periods of higher risk, such as winter. Guidance will be strengthened if needed, but restrictions will be avoided if possible due to their significant economic, social and health costs.
The government will review the current guidance in September.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a statement at a coronavirus press conference last night:
Like millions of people across this country I woke up this morning sad and rueful, but also filled with pride and hope and with thanks to Gareth Southgate and the whole England squad for the best campaign by any England team in any tournament that I can remember.
They made history. They lifted our spirits – and they brought joy to this country and I know that they will continue to do so.
And to those who have been directing racist abuse at some of the players, I say shame one you, and I hope you will crawl back under the rock from which you emerged.
Because the entire team played like heroes and I’m sure that this is just the beginning of their achievements. I say bring on Qatar next year, and let’s also dare to start to hope that together with Ireland our United Kingdom can host the World Cup in 2030.
Turning now to step four of our roadmap, we’ve come to a stage in the pandemic when there is no easy answer or obvious date for unlocking. We have cases rising significantly – with more than 30,000 per day. And we can see what is happening across Europe as the Delta variant takes hold among our friends.
We know we’re going to see more hospitalisations and more deaths from Covid. But we also know that this wave was clearly foreseen by our scientists when we first set out that roadmap in February.
And if anything, so far, we are in the middle range of their projections for infections and at the lower end of their projections for mortality.
And we also know that if we were now to delay this 4th step – for instance to September or later – then we would be re-opening as the weather gets colder and as the virus acquires a greater natural advantage and when schools are back.
And so we think now is the right moment to proceed, when we have the natural firebreak of the school holidays in the next few days. And Chris and Patrick will set out, in just a minute, how we are meeting the four tests for step 4 in England.
But it is absolutely vital that we proceed now with caution. And I cannot say this powerfully or emphatically enough. This pandemic is not over. This disease coronavirus continues to carry risks for you and for your family.
We cannot simply revert instantly from Monday 19th July to life as it was before Covid.
We will stick to our plan to lift legal restrictions and to lift social distancing, but we expect and recommend that people wear a face covering in crowded and enclosed spaces where you come into contact with those you don’t normally meet, such as on public transport.
We’re removing the Government instruction to work from home where you can but we don’t expect that the whole country will return to their as one desks from Monday. And we’re setting out guidance for business for a gradual return to work over the summer.
And as a matter of social responsibility we’re urging nightclubs and other venues with large crowds to make use of the NHS Covid Pass – which shows proof of vaccination, a recent negative test or natural immunity – as a means of entry.
We’re updating our guidance for the Clinically Extremely Vulnerable on how they can keep themselves safe and I generally urge everyone to keep thinking of others and to consider the risks.
We’ll keep our tough border policy, including quarantine for those arriving from red list countries.
And we’ll keep the test, trace and isolate system in place.
Every week that goes by we are getting hundreds of thousands more jabs into arms and our delay to the road map that we announced last month has enabled us to get 7 million more jabs in the last 4 weeks alone.
By next Monday, two-thirds of adults will have received a second dose and every adult will have been offered a first dose.
And it is the single most crucial thing now that you get that jab. A jab that could protect you and your family – and allow you, for instance, to go on holiday.
And it is of course only thanks to the vaccine programme that we are able to take these cautious steps now. But to take these steps we must be cautious and we must be vaccinated.
So please get that jab.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will announce this afternoon whether Scotland’s Covid-19 restrictions will be eased as planned in the weeks ahead.
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