Tag: First Minister

First Minister urged to put wellbeing at the heart of economic recovery

Poverty Alliance and Wellbeing Economy Alliance have written to the First Minister to urge her to task the recently appointed Advisory Group on Economic Recovery with putting social justice at the heart of their work.

Their letter says:

Dear First Minister,

Economic Recovery and Covid-19

Since the start of the Covid-19 crisis, we have witnessed in action the values that we all share. We have seen the compassion, kindness and solidarity that will be required to make it through this crisis.

But we have also seen that our economy is failing to live up to these values. Our social security system and labour market have failed to protect too many of us: particularly women, disabled people and people from black and minority ethnic communities.

It is clear that as we move through and beyond the current phase of the crisis, we must commit to redesigning our economy and systems to better reflect our shared values of compassion and justice. Instead of returning to the economy we had going into the Covid-19 crisis, we must build back better by creating a wellbeing economy that puts our collective wellbeing first.

We therefore welcome that the Scottish Government’s Covid-19: framework for decision making recognises the need to look at the “social and economic reforms necessary to achieve the best future for Scotland” and commits not to repeat the mistakes of austerity.

This commitment is most welcome but must be made real.

In the months ahead we urge you to maintain your ambitious climate agenda to ensure the post-Covid-19 economy is a sustainable one, and to ensure it is socially just we urge you to prioritise:

  • Building a labour market that works for everyone: Too many people, particularly women and younger people, are trapped in poverty by low-paid and insecure work. Fair Work has been central to the Scottish Government’s approach to labour market policy, but more must be done to make it a reality for workers in Scotland.
  • Designing a more just taxation system: While this crisis is impacting every person across the country, the disproportionate impact on people on low incomes has highlighted the very real consequences of our deeply unequal society. It cannot be right that the wealthiest 1% of households in Scotland own more wealth than the poorest 50% at a time when almost 1 in 4 children are living in poverty. We must inject justice and fairness into our taxation system.
  • Securing adequate incomes for all: We have seen positive steps taken by the Scottish Government as it has started to deliver social security assistance. However, Covid-19 has highlighted that this support must not only be dignified, but should help deliver an adequate income too. The Scottish Government must use its powers creatively and to their fullest extent to ensure that our social security system can keep any one of us afloat during difficult times.

Even at this moment of crisis we must begin the task of investing in a better future, to ‘build back better’, with every policy decision we make helping us move towards a just society that’s in step with our values.

We must not return to the pre-Covid 19 economy that locked so many people into poverty.

The Advisory Group on Economic Recovery must not, therefore, simply seek to replicate the unsustainable and unjust economy that went before.

Instead, it must focus on the steps we can take to create an environmentally sustainable economy that ensures a just distribution of income and wealth.

We urge you to task the recently appointed Advisory Group on Economic Recovery with putting social justice at the heart of their work. In doing so the Advisory Group should liaise with the Poverty and Inequality Commission and the Just Transition Commission and collaborate with existing Wellbeing Economy Governments (WEGo) partners to show leadership in creating a wellbeing economy.

This time calls on us to reflect on the kind of country we want to live in. We believe in a Scotland in which wealth is justly distributed, our life chances are not determined by how much we earn, where our labour market guarantees Fair Work for every worker, and where everyone has enough money to get by.

We hope you share this vision and will take the decisions in the weeks and months ahead to make it a reality.

We would welcome an early discussion with you regarding the role of the Advisory Group, as well as the broader concerns of our members regarding the long-term social and economic reforms we require.

Yours sincerely,

Peter Kelly, The Poverty Alliance
Dr Katherine Trebeck, Wellbeing Economy Alliance

Coronavirus update: First Minister’s speech 29 April

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at a media briefing in St Andrew’s House, Edinburgh:

Good afternoon everybody. Thank you once again to all of you for joining us for this daily update.

I want to start as usual with an update on some of the key statistics in relation to COVID-19 in Scotland.

Now as usual on Wednesdays, today’s update will have two parts – an update on the daily figures that you are used to hearing me present, and also a summary of the key points from today’s weekly publication from National Records of Scotland.

That means more complexity and a bit more length than normal – so please bear with me.

I also know and want to be upfront about this today that both speaking about and hearing about people dying is extremely upsetting. But I hope you understand that it is important that I do report these numbers and do so in some detail.

Let me turn firstly to the usual daily figures.

As at 9 o’clock this morning, I can report that there have been 11,034 positive cases confirmed – which is an increase of 313 since yesterday.

A total of 1,727 patients are currently in hospital with either confirmed or suspected COVID-19 – that is a decrease of 27 from yesterday.

A total of 114 people as of last night were in intensive care with either confirmed or suspected cases of the virus. And that is a decrease of 12 on yesterday’s figures.

Let me say again that these are encouraging figures.

I am also able to confirm today that since 5 March, a total of 2,521 patients who had tested positive for the virus have now been able to leave hospital.

However I also have to report that in the past 24 hours, 83 deaths have been registered of patients who had been confirmed through a test as having the virus – and that takes the total number of deaths in Scotland, under that measurement, to 1,415. Although I’ll come on to the figures from the National Records of Scotland publication shortly.

Unfortunately there is a further group of deaths that I am able to report on today. Over the course of the pandemic, I can sadly confirm that 6 members of NHS staff and 5 members of the social care workforce have died from the virus. And my thoughts, and the thoughts of all of us in the Scottish Government are with their family and friends.

Now I should stress and it is an important point to stress that it will not necessarily be the case that all of these members of staff contracted COVID through their work – and in some cases, people may not have been in their workplace for some time.

However it is really important for us to understand how many frontline workers lose their lives from this virus, it’s also really important that we ensure appropriate investigation into the circumstances, and of course learn any lessons that we can from those circumstances.

Now the numbers that I have read out – for health and care workers, and indeed for all deaths – are not just statistics. And this is a point that is important for me to make every single day. Behind every one of these statistics is an individual an individual who is loved and cherished an individual who is now deeply missed by those that they’ve left behind. So once again, I want to send my deepest condolences and thoughts to everyone who has lost a loved one to this virus.

And finally I want to thank – as I always do – our health and care workers for the extraordinary work that you continue to do. The entire country owes you such an enormous debt of gratitude.

Now I have spoken before about the different ways in which we record figures, but I think it’s helpful if I briefly go through the key points again.

For our daily update figure – which is the one that you have just heard me give – we report on deaths that have been registered by National Records of Scotland, but where the individual has been tested and confirmed as having COVID-19.

These figures are the most accurate ones that we are able to provide on a daily basis. However, as you’ve heard me say before, they don’t capture all deaths associated with the virus.

So National Records of Scotland – or NRS – now produces a weekly report every Wednesday. It’s been published just over half an hour ago.

And this captures all deaths registered within a 7 day period, ending on the preceding Sunday. And it includes – not just those with a confirmed laboratory diagnosis of COVID-19 – but also deaths which are presumed to be linked to the virus.

So it includes cases where COVID is entered on the death certificate as a suspected cause of death, or as a contributory factor in the death, but where no formal test had been carried out.

The number of deaths covered under this reporting system is therefore larger than under the daily system, when you compare the two figures according to the same date. But it is more comprehensive, and it provides a fuller picture of how the virus is affecting our communities.

As I said NRS published the fourth of its weekly reports today. It covers the period up to Sunday 26th April – which is three days ago. At that point, if I can remind you, according to our daily figures, 1,262 deaths had been registered of people who had tested positive for the virus.

However, today’s report shows that by Sunday, the total number of registered deaths linked to the virus – confirmed and presumed – was 2,272.

656 of those were registered in the 7 days up to Sunday the 26th. And that is an increase of 5 from the week before, when 652 COVID-19 deaths had been registered.

Now, as I said a moment ago, these figures are difficult to hear – and they are of course very difficult and upsetting for me as well to report on.

But this more comprehensive information is vital, because it does help to give us as full a picture as possible of the toll the virus is having, and to see how and when it is progressing and where it is progressing. And that is important as we take decisions for the future.

Now because of the importance of this information, NRS once again provided breakdowns of these figures by age, health board area and setting. And I want to discuss briefly some of what these latest figures show.

First, the data says that in total, 52% of people whose deaths have been linked to COVID died in a hospital; 39% of people died in a care home; and 9% of people died at home or in another setting.

However in the past week, on its own more than half of all COVID-related deaths – 338 of the total – were in care homes. That partly reflects the fact that COVID-19 deaths in hospital do now seem to be declining.

The proportion of deaths in Scotland in care homes – while obviously deeply distressing – is however broadly in line with the proportions being reported now for many other countries. And that demonstrates again how crucial it is to make care homes as safe as they can possibly be during a pandemic of this nature.

Care homes have had strict guidance to follow since 13 March. And it is incumbent all care home providers, whether they are in the public or private sector to follow and to implement that guidance.

Our NHS Directors of Public Health are also playing a lead role in assessing how each care home in their area is managing infection control, staffing, training, physical distancing and testing.

Patients being discharged from hospital should provide 2 negative tests before being admitted into a care home, and all new admissions to care homes should be tested and isolated for 14 days.

All care home residents with symptoms of COVID-19 are tested.

Social care staff with symptoms or their families should be tested and we have worked with the care sector and continue to work with the care sector to ensure appropriate provision of PPE.

We know that care homes – due to the age and often the frailty of their residents, and because many people are living together in the same setting – are very, very vulnerable to this virus, not just here in Scotland but across the UK and other countries too. The steps we have taken so far are designed to ensure that they are as safe as they can possibly be. And we will continue to take whatever steps are necessary and appropriate to make sure that is the case.

The second issue I want to briefly cover is that we have again today in this publication provided information on what is sometimes called “excess deaths” – that is the difference between the total number of deaths last week, and the average number of deaths, in previous years, for that particular week.

Today’s figures show that there were 743 excess deaths last week. That is actually lower than in the previous two weeks – by more than 100 – but it is still a much higher number than we would want to see. The overwhelming majority of those excess deaths – 85% of them – can be and are attributed to COVID-19. But there are 112 additional deaths which cannot be attributed to the virus.

That figure – for unexplained excess deaths – is actually also lower than in previous weeks, but it is of course still a source of concern.

The figures published today show that a significant proportion of these additional deaths are due to Alzheimer’s or dementia, or circulatory conditions such as heart disease or stroke.

The other point I would make about the excess deaths overall is that they are high and far too high but on the most recent comparable data we have in Scotland, the proportion of excess deaths is slightly lower at this stage than in England and Wales.

Now I know there have been questions raised about whether all deaths thought to be from Covid are recorded in that way. And I want to be very clear that in reporting and analysing all excess deaths, I hope the NRS report provides some reassurance on that point. And we of course continue our work to understand what lies behind these increases and in particular to understand the excess deaths that are not attribute to the virus.

Thirdly, in terms of the points I want to cover, these figures again demonstrate that this virus disproportionately affects the elderly and that is not just elderly in care homes, the vast majority – nearly all – of deaths from this virus are in the over 65 age group.

However they also show that anyone can get this virus, and that people of all ages have died or become seriously ill from it. So for all of us, strict hand hygiene and sticking to social distancing rules is still the best way of protecting ourselves, as well as protecting our loved ones and our communities.

And that brings me to my final point – and it is one which you hear me make every day but I think it is more important than ever to make it during these Wednesday briefings than perhaps at any other time.

I know how upsetting these numbers are to listen to, because I know how upsetting they are to report on. And there’s a danger of feeling – when you hear numbers like this – dispirited, certainly very sad but also powerless, as a result of the fact that the death toll is still so significant, given all of our efforts in recent weeks.

But every one of us does have power to protect ourselves, our loved ones and communities. And not withstanding these figures, deeply distressing figures of numbers of people dying. Some of the earlier statistics that I have sighted today show that we are making progress.

So by exercising the power that each of us as citizens have, we have already all of us helped protect the NHS, we’ve helped to push transmission rates in the community to a much lower level now than was the case several weeks ago.

So please, I ask you, continue to stick to the rules.

Stay at home – except for essential purposes such as buying food or medicine, and exercising.

If you do leave home for essential purposes, don’t mix with people from other households – stay more than 2 metres away from other people. If you have to be in an enclosed space with other people, like a food shop or public transport, please consider covering your nose and mouth with a face covering like a scarf.

If you have symptoms of the virus, you and your household should isolate completely.

And everybody must still wash their hands regularly and thoroughly and follow all of the other hygiene guidance.

These measures are tough for all of us, and as I say every day because it’s true they are getting tougher. But they are having a positive impact. Notwithstanding some of the upsetting news I reported today. But the converse of that point is equally important and equally as stark, easing up on them now would also have an impact but it would be a negative impact – and that impact would be felt very rapidly.

So we do need to stick with it. These restrictions are the ways in which all of us, together, will slow the spread of the virus even further, continue to protect our NHS, and save lives. So thank you once again to all of you who are doing that.

And please, please keep doing that because you are making a difference.

Coronavirus update – First Minister’s speech Friday 24 April

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at a media briefing in St Andrew’s House, Edinburgh:

Good afternoon. Thanks for joining us for today’s briefing.

I want to start – as I always do – by updating you on some of the key statistics in relation to Covid-19 in Scotland.

As at 9 o’clock this morning, there have been 9,697 positive cases confirmed – an increase of 288 from yesterday.

A total of 1710 patients are in hospital with Covid-19 – that is a decrease of 38 from yesterday.

A total of 141 people last night were in intensive care with confirmed or suspected Covid 19. That is also a decrease of 7 since yesterday.

These figures for hospital admissions and intensive care are giving us real and growing cause for optimism that the current lockdown is working to suppress the virus.

That’s the good news, perhaps the less good news is that also tells us why we must stick with these lockdown restrictions, because as I’ve said many times before standing here, any easing up on that at all right now would risk us putting all that progress into reverse and the virus quickly running out of control again.  So please stick with the restrictions because as you can see they are working

I am also, in some other good news, able to confirm today that since 5 March, a total of 2,271 patients who had tested positive for the virus and been admitted to hospital have been able to leave hospital, and I wish all of them well.

However on a much sadder note, I also have to report that in the last 24 hours, 64 deaths have been registered of patients who have been confirmed through a test as having Covid-19 – that takes the total number of deaths in Scotland, under that measurement, to 1,184.

As I’ve said before, we provide these statistics for a very important reason, it helps tell us and tell you what is happening with the virus and how it is progressing across the country and what impact it is having. But the people behind these statistics could be the loved ones of any of us and that’s what I always bear in mind when I report the numbers to you every day. Each and every one of these statistics was a real person and across the country right now their deaths are being mourned by family members whose lives will never be the same again without them. So once again today I want to convey my deepest  condolences to everyone who is grieving for a loved one as a result of this virus.

I also want to thank again – as I always do and always will – our health and care workers.  Last night, I – along with thousands of people across the country – once again took part in the applause at 8 o’clock.  It has become a regular – and very special – feature of our week and our Thursday evenings in particular.  And it’s just one small way in which we show our appreciation, for the extraordinary work that all of you do and I again today I give my sincere thanks to all of you.

That Thursday night applause has also become a way for all of us in streets and communities up and down the land to briefly come together to share some kindness and show some solidarity. At a very grim and difficult  time these really are special moments indeed.

Now, there a two issues I want to cover today before handing on to my colleagues and opening up to questions.

The first issues is just to recap the paper the Scottish Government published yesterday, on how we might begin to go through a process over the weeks to comes of restoring some level of normality to our everyday lives, while we also continue to contain and suppress the virus and minimise the harms that it does.

I can tell you today that since it was published – this time yesterday –  more than 250,000 people have viewed the paper on the Scottish Government’s website.

So thank you to those of you who have taken the time to engage with this and I would encourage those who haven’t had the opportunity to do so yet to take some time to read the document.

I noted yesterday that most people will never read a government document but if you are ever going to do it at all this is the time. So please take some time to read what we set out, the principles that are going to guide us, some of the factors we have to take into account. And if you’ve got views that you would like us to consider in this next phase of our work then please don’t hesitate to tell us what they are.

As I said yesterday, this publication is an attempt to have grown up conversation with the wider public in Scotland.  We want to be really frank with you every step of the way about the complexities and uncertainties of the decision that lie ahead.

We need to be clear now that lockdown remains essential for the reasons I mentioned a moment ago, and that even as we are able to start to ease some of these restrictions, we’re going to have to do so very carefully, very cautiously  – probably very slowly and gradually. We’re going to have to take what I described this morning as baby steps in doing this. We’ve got to try to seek a new normal, because how we are living our lives right now has consequences and can’t go on forever, but we have to recognised the virus has not gone away, so there will be changes in how we live our lives  that will be necessary for some time to come, until science in the form of treatments and a vaccine offer new solutions to us.

So this really is about all of us and its impact on the lives of each and every one of us and that’s why it’s important everyone feels part of this process.

What’s important to me as First Minister, in contrast to the uncertainties that politicians usually like to express, is that I can also be frank with you about the uncertainties and the complexities of the decisions that lie ahead.

Those decisions will make demands on all of us and the lives that we lead so I want that process to be as open as possible. And the paper that we published yesterday, which so many of you have already taken the opportunity to read, is the start of that process.

As I said yesterday,  in the days and few weeks ahead, we will set out more detail on the different options we will consider, as well as the modelling and scientific advice that underpins and informs our decisions.  And of course, as we develop and assess those options, we will continue to engage as widely as possible, across the different sectors and groups of society.

Lastly,  I want to reemphasise an important point.  It’s one that I made yesterday it and it’s one I’ve made already in my remarks to you today.

Moving on from where we are now will only be possible only if and when we get the virus under control and we have more confidence that is the case. And so it remains absolutely vital that all of us continue to comply with the public health guidance and rules that are in place.

To reiterate, that means staying at home, unless you are going out for essential purposes – such as exercising once a day, or buying food and medicines.

It means that if you do go out, do not meet up with people from other households, and please stay two metres apart from other people.

And it means wash your hands thoroughly and regularly.

By following these rules, we can continue, as we are doing right now, to slow the spread of this virus.  And we can hasten the day, when we return if not to complete, but to some semblance of normality in our everyday lives.

The second item I want to update you on, is our work to ensure that Scotland’s NHS has the supplies that it needs to care for people in this time.

Over the past month, the Minister for Trade Ivan McKee has been leading work to ensure that any shortages are overcome – and that supply chains can continue to meet demand.

That has involved at times sourcing equipment from alternative supply chains.  And where necessary, we have looked overseas to source the equipment we need.

For example, last weekend, a major consignment of PPE arrived at Prestwick Airport, from China. It included 10 million fluid-resistant face masks, as well as equipment for use in intensive care units and laboratories.

I can confirm that, just an hour ago, another of those consignments arrived at Prestwick.  It includes 100,000 testing kits, as well as another 10 million face masks.

Of course, alongside international procurement, we’re also working to boost Scotland’s domestic supply lines.

About a month ago, we put out a call to action, to Scotland’s businesses.  We asked them to support the flow of supplies and equipment, to our health and social care sector.

To date, more than 1,600 businesses and individuals have answered that call.  And I want to thank each and every one of them.

We are working hard to assess and coordinate each of those offers, as quickly as possible.  And in doing that, we are prioritising the support that is needed most.

Our work with Calachem – a company based in Grangemouth – is a good example.  Calachem have now produced 20,000 litres of hand sanitiser.  The sanitiser was manufactured using denatured alcohol from Whyte & Mackay.  It was bottled by the Stonehaven-based company, McPhie.  And deliveries of the product – to our front line services – will begin from next week.

The Scottish Government has formed this supply chain, in an incredibly short space of time.  It will produce 560,000 litres of hand sanitiser, over the next four weeks.  And that will be enough meet the needs of Scotland’s entire health and social care sector.

Another example is the work we’re doing with the firm Alpha Solway.  They are currently manufacturing 20,000 face visors per day, at their factory in Annan.  And in total, they are supplying an order of over one million visors, to our NHS.

These businesses – and many more like them – are doing hugely important work. Rightly and properly we will continue to talk about getting supplies of this kind of equipment to the front line, but I thought it was useful today to give you an insight into the work that’s being done to ensure these supplies keep flowing and the we have sufficient of them to get through this crisis.

So these companies and many more in addition to the ones I’ve mentioned today are playing a critical part in our overall collective national endeavour in Scotland to tackle this crisis and I want to put on record today my heartfelt thanks to each and every one.

Let me close today by saying something about this weekend.  I’m conscious that it will be the fifth weekend, since Scotland went into lockdown.  And I know that they only get harder, as time goes on.

I also know that this weekend will be particularly difficult for Scotland’s Muslim communities – who are now observing the holy month of Ramadan.  It will be tough not to be able to host people in your home, or visit friends and family, or attend your local mosque.  And the Justice Secretary, who is himself observing Ramadan, will say a bit more about that, shortly.

However, I want to end by emphasising the sacrifices we’re all making, are having a positive impact.  We have a long way to go, I shared some of that with you yesterday, but it is equally true to say that we are seeing hopeful signs and so it’s vital that we stick with it – and build on the work we’ve done, so far.

By doing that, we are slowing the spread of this virus, we are protecting our NHS, and despite the horrible statistics I report to you on a daily basis, we are saving lives.  So I want to thank all of you, once again, for playing your part and doing that.

First Minister: envisaging a ‘new normal’

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at a media briefing in St Andrew’s House yesterday:

Good afternoon everyone. Thank you for joining us for today’s briefing as usual.

Today I’m going to focus quite a lot on the paper we’ve just published about how we might, at the right time and in the right way, begin to restore some normality to our lives, while still containing the COVID-19 virus.

But before I do that, I will start as usual with an update on some of the key statistics in relation to the virus in Scotland.

As at 9 o’clock this morning, there have been 9,409 positive cases confirmed – which is an increase of 371 from yesterday.

A total of 1,748 confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patients are in hospital – and that is a decrease of 28 from yesterday.

And a total of 148 people last night were in intensive care with confirmed or suspected cases of the virus. And that is a decrease of seven since yesterday. Let me say again as I did yesterday, these figures on hospital admissions and admissions in to intensive care are very encouraging and do give us real optimism at this stage.

However in the last 24 hours, I am very sorry to have to report that 58 deaths have been registered of patients who had been confirmed through a test as having the virus – and that takes the total number of deaths in Scotland, under that measurement, to 1,120.

Once again, it’s really important for all of us to remember that each of these deaths represents a unique, loved and irreplaceable individual. And I want to again extend my deepest condolences to everyone who has lost a loved one.

I also want again to thank all of our health and care workers right across the country. This evening many thousands of us will, yet again applaud your efforts – we are all so deeply grateful to you for the extraordinary work you are doing.

So let me turn now to the paper we have published just a few moments ago about the decisions we will need to take as we seek to contain this virus while also restoring a semblance of normality to our lives.

And I want to be very clear with you at the outset – what we are publishing at this stage today is, by necessity, a first cut.

I am seeking today really, to start a grown up conversation with you, the public.

The decisions that lie ahead of us, of all of us, are really complex.

We will – as we have done all along – seek to inform those decisions with the best scientific advice possible.

But the science will never be exact, so we will also require to make very careful judgments.

And we are in uncharted territory – it’s impossible to know with absolute certainty what the impact of our decisions will be in advance.

That means we must also be prepared to adapt and change course as we go. We want to ease restrictions, of course we do, but we cannot absolutely rule out having to reapply some of them in future should we have evidence that the virus is again running out of control.

And I want to be frank with you every single step of the way about all of these complexities and uncertainties.

So while today’s paper is still quite high level, it is the start of a process.

It sets out the objectives and the principles that will guide us, the different factors that we will need to take into account, the framework in which we will take decisions, and the preparations we need to make now.

In the days and the weeks ahead, evidence, data and modelling will allow us to take firmer decisions.

As that happens, this paper will evolve into a detailed plan with metrics, actions, milestones and measurements attached to it.

And I give an assurance today that as we go through this process, we will share our thinking on an ongoing, iterative basis.

But let me briefly set out some of the key points today.

Firstly, and this is an obvious point, this virus causes real harm. And we see that every day in the statistics that we report, especially in the numbers of people who have died.

But the lockdown measures we are taking to contain the virus are also doing damage.

They’re doing harm to the economy and to living standards, to children’s education, to other aspects of our physical health, and to mental health and wellbeing. And the toll of all of that may also, in time, be measured in poorer health outcomes and lives lost.

So we must try to find a better balance than the one we have right now.

But my second point is that, as we do so, we cannot and we must not take our eye off the need to suppress the virus and minimise the damage that it does.

And let me be very clear about this, continuing to suppress COVID-19 is the central objective that we set out in this paper today.

Obviously, we cannot guarantee that no one will get this virus in the future – far from it – but an assumption that it is somehow safe to allow a certain proportion or a certain section of the population to get the virus is not part of the approach we will be taking.

Third, we are increasingly confident that measures we are taking now are suppressing the virus.

The key factor – and you may have heard this before – is what is known as the reproduction rate – the R number. And that needs be as far below one as possible.

Now before lockdown that R number was very likely above three. And that means everyone with the virus was infecting three more people, each of them was infecting three more people and so on and on. That is what is exponential growth.

Our best estimate now is that the R number is somewhere between 0.6 and one – though I should say that it is probably still higher in certain settings, such as care homes.

But we can’t yet be absolutely sure about any of that. That’s why we need more time to monitor the statistics we report every day – like case numbers, hospital and ICU admissions, and numbers of deaths. And we need to develop further our data through ongoing surveillance.

It’s only when we are sure that the virus is under control that we can even start to ease any of the restrictions.

And it’s my next point really that takes us to the hard part.

When we do reach that stage, the virus will be under control only because of the severity of the restrictions we are all living with just now. But the virus will not have gone away.

So as we start to lift the restrictions, the real risk – and it is a very real risk – is that COVID-19 runs rampant again.

So a return to normal as we knew it is not on the cards in the near future. And it’s really important that I am upfront with you right now about that.

What we will be seeking to do is find a new normal – a way of living alongside this virus, but in a form that keeps it under control and stops it taking the toll that we know it can do.

Social distancing and limiting our contacts with others will be a fact of life for a long time to come – certainly until treatments and ultimately a vaccine offer different solutions. So that means possibly for the rest of this year and maybe even beyond.

And that’s why talk of lifting the lockdown – as if it’s a flick of a switch moment – is misguided.

Our steps – when we take them – will need to be careful, gradual, incremental and probably quite small to start with.

We will need to assess them in advance and monitor them in action. Sometimes, as I said a moment ago, we may even need to reverse things.

As we go, we will apply our judgment to the best scientific advice possible, we will continue to collaborate closely with the other governments across the UK, and we will learn from international experience. The fact is that different countries are at different stages of this pandemic – but none of us are anywhere near through it yet and we all face the same challenges.

So as we make these decisions here, careful balances will have to be struck.

For example, it may be that be that certain business in certain sectors can re-open – but only if they can change how they work to keep employees and customers two metres distant from each other.

Similarly with schools – classrooms may have to be redesigned to allow social distancing, so maybe not all children can go back to or be at school at the same times.

Some limited outdoor activity might be able to restart earlier than indoor activity. But let me be clear, big gatherings and events are likely to be off for some months to come.

We will also consider whether different approaches would make sense for different areas – though our preference, not least for ease of understanding, will be for as much consistency as possible.

And of course given how severely this virus is affecting older people and those with other health vulnerabilities, some form of shielding will almost certainly be required for the foreseeable future.

Now let me stress that what I have just set out there are not firm decisions – but they do illustrate the kind of options we will be assessing.

And as we do so, we will consider not just the health imperatives, but also issues of practicality, sustainability, fairness and equity, ethics and human rights.

And lastly, as well as changes to how we live, we will use public health interventions and technology to the maximum possible to help us control this virus.

In the next phase, extensive testing, tracing of those who test positive and the isolation of symptomatic people to break the chain of transmission will be a central part of the approach that we will take. And the preparations to make that possible are already under way.

We will also discuss with the UK government – for this is a reserved responsibility – the need for stronger surveillance measures for those coming into the country from elsewhere.

So in short, this paper sets out the difficult decisions we face and the way in which we will go about preparing for them, making them and also assessing their impact.

I want to stress again because it’s important that I am frank. The path ahead is not an easy one – it is paved with complexity and uncertainty. But with openness, transparency and frankness along the way, I believe that together we will be able to navigate it. It is for me and for government to work through and lead that process. But this is about all of us – hence this discussion that we are opening up with all of you today.

The paper we have published is available on the Scottish Government website. I will post a link to it on Twitter, later this afternoon.

So, please, even if – like I suspect most of the population – you are not in the habit of reading government documents, have a look at it. And if you have views on it please let us know. These views are important and will be helpful.

As I said earlier, I will continue to share our thinking with you as it develops.

But let me now end now on a vital point and one that you have become used to hearing me make each day. Moving on from where we are now as all of us want to do as quickly as it is safe to do will only be possible if and when we do get this virus properly under control.

And that means sticking with the current rules that are in place just now.

Stay at home except for essential purposes.

Stay two metres apart from others when you have to be out.

Do not meet up with people from other households.

And isolate completely if you or anyone in your household has symptoms.

This is tough, this is the toughest set of circumstances that the vast majority of us have ever lived through – and I can’t stand here and promise you it is going to get a whole lot easier soon.

But as I hope we have started to set out today, if we keep doing the right things, and if we consider all of the options carefully and with the right objectives in mind, I do believe there will be a way through.

And we will find that way through. So thank you for all you are doing to help. And please if you can, engage with this discussion as we go through the days and weeks to come.

Thank you very much for your patience right now in allowing me to go through that in detail.

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