Business confidence in Scotland falls during October

· Business confidence in Scotland falls seven points in October to 26%, but firms remain optimistic in their own trading prospects, at 44%

· Scottish businesses identified their top target areas for growth in the next six months as evolving their offer (37%), introducing new technology (37%) and entering new markets (31%)

· Overall UK business confidence increased three points in October to 39% with firms’ outlook on the economy also up by four points at 34%

Business confidence in Scotland fell seven points during October to 26%, according to the latest Business Barometer from Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking. 

Companies in Scotland reported higher confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, up five points at 44%. When taken alongside their optimism in the economy, down 19 points to 10%, this gives a headline confidence reading of 26%.  

Scottish businesses identified their top target areas for growth in the next six months as months as evolving their offer (37%), introducing new technology (37%) and entering new markets (31%).

The Business Barometer, which surveys 1,200 businesses monthly, provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide. 
 
A net balance of 33% of businesses in the region expect to increase staff levels over the next year, up two points on last month. 

National picture

Overall UK business confidence rose three points in October from 36% to 39%, and firms’ outlook on the overall UK economy increased four points to 34%. Businesses’ confidence in their own trading prospects also continued the upward trend, rising four points to 45%.

Companies’ hiring intentions reached their highest level since May last year, with 32% of firms intending to increase staff levels over the next 12 months, up six points month-on-month.

Firms in Yorkshire reported the highest levels of business confidence, jumping 12 points to 52% – the highest reading for the region since March 2022. Companies in the South West reported the biggest uptick in business confidence, increasing 26 points month-on-month to 47%.

Following a fall in confidence in September, the retail and service industries both saw an increase in business confidence, with retail business confidence increasing by five points to 37% and services rising seven points to 43%. Levels are still lower than seen in August, however, when retail business confidence was at 44% and services at 42%.

Manufacturing confidence was 36%, unchanged from last month when confidence rose to a three-month high. Construction fell for a second month in a row to 31% (down five points).

Martyn Kendrick, regional director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland, said: ““Despite the drop in overall business confidence, it’s reassuring to see that firms across the country remain optimistic about their own trading prospects as we head into the final quarter of the year.

“As we approach Christmas, and what’s the busiest trading period of the year for many Scottish firms, those in the retail, hospitality and leisure sectors companies will benefit from maintaining a steady cashflow to remain resilient and be well-placed to seize any opportunities to grow.

“It’s no secret that Christmas can be a frenetic and expensive time for businesses and their customers, so firms need to have a plan in place to manage this, as well as having some money aside to cover unexpected costs.

“We’ll remain by the side of Scottish businesses to help them capitalise on avenues for growth in the final months of the year.”

Paul Gordon, managing director for SME and Mid Corporates at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: ““Retail and service sectors have clearly felt reassured this month, after confidence fell in September. While others have commented that consumers may be feeling the strain, our data shows that in terms of their future appetite, it certainly isn’t ‘doom and gloom’ for retailers.

“However, higher energy costs and rising oil prices will undoubtedly have an impact on consumers and businesses alike. If businesses can look to their future financial stability now and ensure cash-flow remains a priority, that should put them in good stead for the months ahead.”

Hann-Ju Ho, Senior Economist Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “Business confidence this month reflects a more positive outlook as we head into the important festive period, with trading prospects and economic optimism both at their second highest levels this year.

“The level also underlines the wider upward trend of steadily rising confidence in 2023. If you look at the year in quarterly time periods, confidence has steadily risen from 20% in the first quarter, 26% in the second and in September an average of 27% in the third.

“However, our data shows that firms are still safeguarding their profit margins in response to the possibility of interest rates remaining high, wage increase pressures, and the prospect of higher energy prices again this winter.

“Therefore, businesses will be keeping a keen eye on the forthcoming Autumn Statement and Bank of England policy announcements as they navigate through a challenging economic period ahead.”

Policy announcements at SNP conference: What do they mean for Scotland?

Humza Yousaf addressed the Scottish National Party Conference for the first time as First Minister, in a speech that contained a few new proposals. We’ll take you through some of the main consequences of what was announced (writes MAIRI SPOWAGE, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute).

Council tax frozen, but at what cost?

The centrepiece announcement was that 2024-25 council tax rates across Scotland would remain the same as in 2023-24. This was a surprise to many – including COSLA – although the Scottish Government has said it “will fully fund the freeze to ensure councils can maintain their services.”

What does that mean in practice? Councils will already have been in the process of deciding what council tax policy will be for the 2024-25 financial year – many of us will have seen consultations and discussions in our local area about this. As they are constrained to fund current spending out of current sources of revenue – of which council tax is a significant component – decisions on spending going forward may have already been taken on the basis of future income from council tax. The First Minister’s announcement changes that prospective revenue.

Whether or not the promise of “fully funding” the freeze in council tax will depend on what the Scottish Government assesses as the counterfactual for what increases in rates would have been – and how that will be put into practice.

Our calculations indicate that accounting for growth in the number of properties expected in 2024-25, total net revenue from council tax will be £2,865m.

But it we assume councils would have applied the same increases as they did last year (which averaged 5%), revenues would have been £3,013m. And if the proposal for increasing multipliers for the higher bands in the recent council tax consultation had been taken forward revenues would have been higher still, at £3,196m.

In summary then, the freeze in council tax – assuming that councils would have followed the increases from the previous year – will cost £148m. In addition, the decision not to increase the multipliers as has been consulted on will cost £183m.

The true size of the shortfall will depend on what councils were actually budgeting for. If we assumed an 8% increase was being planned – which is lower than some councils implemented last year, and would still not bring much in terms of real increases in funding for local authorities – the total shortfall would be £417m (£229m from the freeze plus £188m from not increasing the multipliers).

How much of the shortfall is covered by the First Minister’s funding pledge will be the subject of a negotiation process with COSLA, and we’ll need to wait to see how it plays out. But ultimately it could lead to councils having less spending power than was expected if the definition of “fully funded” is in dispute.

The Scottish Government was already facing challenges on its budgetary position, given the gap it set out in the Medium Term Financial Strategy in May, of an estimated £1 billion gap between its commitments and likely resources.

Despite a better outturn on income tax than expected, and an increase in borrowing powers, prior to the Programme for Government this was still likely to be around £600m. It is not clear where the extra funding will come from to pay for the council tax freeze – and indeed the announcement on health below.

An “additional” £100m a year to cut NHS waiting lists – but within the fixed envelope

The First Minister also outlined a proposal to spend an extra £100m a year on reducing the NHS waiting lists. The goal is to reduce waiting list by 100,000 by 2026.

As with so many of these proposals, the devil is in the detail, and in this case, the additionality of the pledge is questionable. While the First Minister has announced that more money will be spent on this particular issue, there was no detail where the money was coming from.

With the Scottish spending envelope through the Block Grant largely fixed, spending commitments well ahead of funding sources (as discussed above) for 2024-25, and limited options in terms of yield from tax rises, this announcement seems like it will lead to a reallocation of funding, either from other areas of the health service or from other areas of government spending rather than actual additional spending.

Scottish bonds for capital investments announced – how and why?

The FM announced plans to issue the first-ever government bonds for Scotland to finance infrastructure.

In theory, the power to issue government bonds was devolved as part of the Scotland Act 2012, with the power given full effect in April 2015.

So what would be the process for this? One of the key steps is likely to be establishing a credit rating from major rating agencies. This would provide potential investors with a professional evaluation of Scotland’s creditworthiness.

This process is likely to be fairly involved, consisting of a detailed assessment of Scotland’s economic, fiscal and political environment.

Two questions we’ve been asked already are (i) what will this rating (and therefore the likely interest rate that would have to be paid) be compared to UK government bonds and (ii) to what extent does this tell us about the likely cost of borrowing for an independent Scotland?

The answer to the first question is that there is likely to be a premium to be paid by Scotland compared to UK Government bonds (i.e. it will be more expensive), as a new entrant to the bond market. However, given that ultimately the borrowing is underwritten by the UK Government, it may be that the premium is fairly small. But it will of course depend on the rating and then investors’ reaction to that.

The answer to the second is much more unknown. Given this is underwritten by the UK Government, it is likely that this tells us little about the interest rate that may need to be paid by an independent Scotland.

It is worth underlining that this plan does not increase the borrowing available to the Scottish Government. The annual limit (of £450m in 2023-24 prices) and total cap (of £3bn in 2023-24 prices) will still apply. Rather, it is an alternative to borrowing from the National Loans Fund (essentially from the UKG).

It’s unlikely that the terms of borrowing through issuing bonds will be more favourable than borrowing from the National Loans Fund, which tends to be very close to Bank Rate plus a minimal spread.

Another point to note is that the Scottish Government in recent years has used its capital borrowing powers extensively. In the current year, its debt stock sits at 73% of the debt cap already – forecast to rise to around 80% by the end of the parliament. Therefore the borrowing that will be possible may be more limited by the end of the parliament, particularly as borrowing costs are rising.

The FM set out why they may wish to do this in his speech – focussing on the enhanced profile it could give Scotland internationally, and the additional investment it could attract from international investors. It may be that the process of establishing and issuing the bonds is seen as strengthening the Scottish state in advance of a future independent Scotland.

But in a constrained fiscal environment, it will be fair to ask whether borrowing in a more expensive way makes sense.

Understanding the impact of the transition to net zero on low paid jobs

Discussions about the necessities and trade-offs around the transition to net zero are back on the news agenda this week (write Fraser of Allander Institute’s EMMA CONGREVER and CIARA CRUMMEY).

The changes required to meet net zero targets are complex and challenging yet the risks of not doing enough are immense. Inherent in this are trade-offs but also opportunities. An ordered transition where businesses and households have certainty over what they will need to do is the best way to minimise harm to incomes and to maximise the benefits that can be realised.

For many businesses and households, the costs associated transition to net zero will be manageable, and perhaps even cost effective in the long run. But for some, the upfront costs will be difficult to manage.

Whilst there is a general awareness of the direct costs that will fall on households from, for example the phasing out of gas boilers (a devolved policy, so not affected by the UK Prime Minister’s recent announcement) there is also the impact in livelihoods due to changes in the structure of the economy.

At the moment, all the attention is on the ‘just transition’ for workers in carbon-intensive industries, in the North East in particular. But the impact on jobs could be far wider than this.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation asked us, along with colleagues in the Strathclyde Business School, to look into the potential for disruption to jobs in the wider Scottish economy, particularly in relation to low paid jobs. Our assessment of the available literature and various Scottish Government plans, reports and action plans didn’t provide much to go on, so we embarked on some experimental mapping and modelling of the potential intersection of net zero and low pay.

Today we published a report that we hope provides a rationale and a way forward for government, and others, to consider this issue fully. Whilst we can’t yet confidently put a figure on it, we have found that there is potential for significant disruption to jobs in sectors that employ large numbers of low pay workers, including retail and hospitality.

The mechanisms through which this impact could be felt are varied. Issues we looked at included the knock-on impact from depressed wages in areas where carbon intensive businesses cease trading. We also considered the impact on the viability of businesses with large commercial footprints who may need to invest large amounts to bring buildings up to new energy efficient standards.

There are many unknowns in this type of analysis, including the sufficiency of government policy and the behavioural response from consumers. For example, the Scottish Government is hoping to see car use reduced in Scotland.

Households may also independently decide they wish to reduce car use. It is easy to see how this could impact on the viability of out-of-town shopping centres that rely on customers arriving by car and if there aren’t serious efforts to provide adequate replacement public transport or alternative active travel routes, these large centres of employment may become unviable.

Some of the scenarios that we work through may not lead to jobs disappearing completely, but simply shifting to other places or other sectors. There are two further issues to consider here. Firstly, low paid workers tend to be less flexible on where they can work, due to a variety of factors including available transport and difficulties finding affordable childcare to cover long commuting times.

They also tend have less of a financial buffer to deal with even short periods of unemployment. Secondly, simply moving low paid jobs from one place to another misses a crucial opportunity to maximise the benefits that the transition to net zero could bring by providing career pathways into new, higher paid, growth sectors.

There is an opportunity here to better join up Scottish Government ambitions on tackling poverty and the transition to net zero that is currently missing from both the Just Transition plans and the Fair Work Action Plan. We hope this analysis will be useful in informing the future development of this work.

Holyrood’s Finance Committee to hear from North Coast people about Scotland’s Budget challenges

MSPs from the Scottish Parliament’s Finance and Public Administration Committee will visit Largs next week (Wednesday 30 August) to hear from local people about Scotland’s Budget challenges.

The visit is part of a parliamentary inquiry into the sustainability of Scotland’s finances.

It follows the Scottish Government’s forecast that public spending in Scotland is set to outstrip income expected by £1 billion in 2024/25, rising to £1.9 billion in 2027-28.

This means the government is forecasting that it will not have sufficient money to fund the spending it currently wishes to make.

The politicians are meeting with local people, organisations and businesses to hear their views on what the Scottish Government’s priorities should be in its 2024-25 budget.

Their views will help inform the committee’s scrutiny of the government’s budget in the autumn.

Finance and Public Administration Committee Convener Kenneth Gibson MSP said: “The focus of our work this year is how the budget for 2024-25 and beyond will ensure Scotland’s finances are sustainable in both the short and longer-term.

“It is an incredibly important subject matter given the forecast budget pressures and longer-term demographic challenges in Scotland.

“Coming to Largs and talking to North Coast people – including businesses, third sector bodies and residents – will enable us to hear different views of the impact of the Scottish Government’s tax and spending decisions.

“And that matters because the budget and the long-term sustainability of Scotland’s finances will affect everyone in the country.

“I am delighted that we will also meet the following day in Seamill to discuss our committee’s work programme for the forthcoming parliamentary year.”

Participants will be asked to give views on:

what should the Scottish Government’s priorities be for its budget in 2024-25, given the challenges that Scotland faces next year, and in the years ahead?

New report finds economic impact of the Screen Industry in Edinburgh grows to £97million

1,820 FTE Roles Across the Region

Studio growth enabled inward film and HETV production spend to increase by 110%, driving increases in employment and economic value in Scotland’s screen sector 
Overall production spend in Scotland grew by 55%, including content made by Scotland-based producers

Screen Scotland has published latest figures evidencing continued growth in the value of Scotland’s film and TV industries to the country’s economy including in Edinburgh. 

Commissioned by Screen Scotland and produced by Saffery Champness and Nordicity, the independent report which looks at The Economic Value of the Screen Sector in Scotland in 2021 finds that significant growth was found in all areas of production, particularly inward investment film and High-End TV (HETV) production: 

Inward investment film and HETV production spend increased by 110%, from £165.3 million in 2019 to £347.4 million in 2021.
In total, an estimated £617.4 million was spent on the production of film, TV and other audiovisual content in Scotland in 2021, compared to £398.6 million in 2019, up 55% compared to 2019*.
This included content made by Scotland-based producers, producers based outside of Scotland filming in Scotland and Public Service Broadcasters (PSBs) commissioned content.

The employment impact in Scotland’s production sub-sector rose from 5,120 full time equivalent jobs (FTEs) in 2019 to 7,150 FTEs in 2021, a 39% increase. The employment impact across Scotland’s entire sector increased at a lower rate, by 5.6%, from 10,280 FTEs in 2019 to 10,940 FTEs in 2021 – with the covid impacts in that year on employment in the cinema exhibition and screen tourism accounting for the difference.

According to the research, undertaken by Saffery Champness and Nordicity as a follow-up to their recent study of 2019, growth is in large part due to sector development work undertaken since Screen Scotland’s formation in 2018, including significant skills development work and the opening of new or expanded studio facilities, particularly FirstStage Studios in Edinburgh, where Prime Video’s The Rig (which has returned to Scotland to film series 2) and Anansi Boys were filmed, and the expansion of The Pyramids in West Lothian, home to another Prime Video HETV series, Good Omens 2.

These studio facilities have made Scotland an even more attractive place to film, opening in time to catch the global post pandemic boom in production**.   

Alongside film and TV development and production, the wide-ranging study analyses the economic contribution of the full screen sector value chain – film and TV development and production, animation, VFX and post-production, film and TV distribution, TV broadcast, film exhibition – and extends into the supply chains that provide services at each stage of the content process, including facilities, equipment, transport, catering and accommodation. 

Beyond that direct supply chain, the study looks at where the screen sector stimulates economic activity elsewhere in the Scottish economy: screen tourism, the education and training sectors and infrastructure.   

In total, the screen sector in Scotland contributed Gross Value Added (GVA) of £627 million to Scotland’s economy in 2021, providing 10,930 full time equivalent (FTE) jobs, up from £568 million and 10,940 FTEs in 2019. GVA is the standard measure used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and other national statistical agencies for measuring the monetary value of economic activity and the economic performance of industries.   

Isabel Davis, Screen Scotland’s Executive Director said: “The growth in all forms of production in Scotland between 2019 and 2021 is a phenomenal result.  It shows us that public investment via Screen Scotland in infrastructure, development, production and skills development, combined with attractive levels of production incentive are the catalyst for a successful industry. 

“Now is the time to build on these newly created jobs and growth with a sustained funding commitment towards skills development, attraction of large-scale productions and a focus on the development of locally originated film and television.  Screen Scotland is committed to delivering further growth, working hand in hand with the commercial production and studio sectors. 

“This will rely upon sustained funding and support in order for Scotland to seize the opportunities ahead of it and see that growth trajectory continue.”

Authors of the Report, Stephen Bristow, Partner, Saffery Champness LLP and Dustin Chodorowicz, Partner, Nordicity noted further significant Report findings: “The doubling of Scotland’s annual level of inward investment film and high-end TV production between 2019 and 2021, was nearly three times the 39% growth rate experienced by the UK as a whole, according to published BFI statistics.

“In addition, Scotland’s screen sector GVA rose by 9.7% in those two years – well ahead of the 1.2% increase in nominal GVA (i.e. not adjusted for the effects of price inflation) posted by Scotland’s overall economy during that period.”

Wellbeing Economy Secretary, Neil Gray said: “This report highlights another banner year for Scotland’s screen sector, which is all the more significant for the jobs, investment and economic growth it has delivered. The scale of the return to the Scottish economy from the investment in screen production is remarkable.

“Beyond film and TV, this report also highlights how our tourism, hospitality and construction sectors have benefitted from this investment through screen tourism, catering contracts, and infrastructure expansion, and the supply chains that support these activities.

“The efforts of Screen Scotland have been key to this result and we are committed to working with them and the sector to ensure this growth and the wider benefits being delivered can continue.”

Bob Last, who’s FirstStage Studios in Leith has housed Prime Video’s Anansi Boys and The Rig, and where the second series of The Rig is currently filming, said: “We at FirstStage Studios are excited to have created a facility that helps our customers and their creatives realise ambitious visions for audiences both local and global.

“We are pleased to have rapidly built relationships with, in particular Amazon Prime Video, enabling us to play a part in anchoring more of this global industry and its varied employment opportunities in Scotland and Leith.

“We thank all those who have chosen to make our facility their creative home and especially the crews whose hard work we witness daily, every one of them is a part of the good news today’s Screen Scotland report outlines.”

As a highly experienced Scotland-based film and HETV producer, and currently producer on The Rig, Suzanne Reid commented: “As I progressed in my career the higher-level productions I wanted to work on just didn’t exist in Scotland, in part due to a lack of studio facilities – so I had to head to England and Wales for this type of work.

“It has been wonderful to be working back at home and to be able to work alongside our brilliantly talented Scottish crew on such a highly ambitious series. While it may have been a very successful couple of years for the Scottish Film and TV industry, we need to keep pushing for more high-end productions to be based in Scotland so we can continue to grow our talent base and keep them working at home.”

A summary of the key findings including case studies, can be found here: Case studies | Screen Scotland

The report can be read in full here : https://www.screen.scot/funding-and-support/research/economic-value-of-the-screen-sector-in-scotland-in-2021/economic-value-of-the-screen-sector-in-scotland-in-2021

TUC: Time to talk about tax

TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak declares “now is the time to start a national conversation about taxing wealth”

The TUC has called for a national conversation on taxing wealth, as it publishes new analysis which shows a modest wealth tax on the richest 140,000 individuals – which is around 0.3% of the UK population – could deliver a £10.4 bn boost for the public purse.

The analysis sets out options for taxing the small number of individuals with wealth over £3 million, £5 million and £10 million, excluding pensions.

The TUC says these options are illustrative examples of what a wealth tax could look like, using Spain’s existing policy as a potential model.

“It’s time for a national conversation”

The TUC says it is publishing the analysis to “kickstart a conversation” about tax – with the TUC general secretary Paul Nowak declaring “now is the time to start a national conversation about taxing wealth”.

According to analysis commissioned by the TUC, conducted by Landman Economics, a cumulative one-off wealth tax (excluding pensions wealth) on:

A wealth threshold of £3 million with a marginal tax rate of 1.7% would yield £2.7 billion (with the tax payable on wealth above £3 million by 142,000 individuals or 0.27% of adults in the UK)
A further wealth threshold of £5 million with a marginal tax rate of 2.1% would yield an additional £3.2 billion (with the tax payable on wealth above £5 million by 48,000 individuals or 0.09% of adults in the UK)
A further wealth threshold of £10 million with a marginal tax rate of 3.5 % would yield an additional £4.6 billion (with the tax payable on wealth above £10 million by 17,000 individuals or 0.02% of adults in the UK).

Together this could raise more than £10 billion for the exchequer.

The tax would apply as a marginal rate on wealth and assets above each threshold – in the same way income tax works. For example:

Someone with £3 million wealth would pay nothing.
Someone with £4m wealth would pay tax on £1m of their wealth – paying £17,000.
Someone with £9m would pay tax on £6m of their wealth – paying £118,000

Analysis reveals that of those with wealth over £3 million (excluding pensions), three quarters derives from wealth other than their primary residence, and over half comes from financial wealth:

Net financial (non-pension) wealth: 53.3%
Primary residence: 23.6%
Other residences: 18.7%
Physical wealth: 4.4%

The TUC says further debate is needed on what type of wealth is included in this kind of tax.

The union body has already called on the government to equalise capital gains tax with income tax which could raise around £14 billion.

The union body says it is inherently “unfair and unjust” that people who get income from assets or property get off more lightly than someone who relies on work.

Tale of two Britains

The TUC says increasing wealth inequality is resulting in a “tale of two Britains”.

While working people have been “hit by a pay loss of historic proportions” after the longest wage squeeze in modern history, the wealth of multimillionaires and billionaires has boomed.

Financial wealth over the decade from 2008-10 to 2018-20 increased by around £0.9tn (80 per cent) from £1.1tn to £1.9tn.

TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said: “It’s time to start a national conversation about how we tax wealth in this country.

“It is absurd that a nurse pays a bigger share of their income in tax than a city trader does on profits from their investment portfolio.

“That’s not only fundamentally unfair and unjust – it’s bad for our economy too.

“Our broken tax system means those at the top are hoarding wealth and getting richer and richer, while working people struggle to get by.

“That is starving our economy of spending – as it’s working people who spend their money on our high streets – and it’s starving our public services of much-needed funds.

“This research sets out potential options for getting those with the broadest shoulders to pay a fairer share.

“This is a debate we should not be afraid of having. The Chancellor should use his autumn statement to make sure the wealthiest pay their fair share of tax.”

Commenting on widening inequality over the past decade, Paul added: “Widening wealth inequality means we are seeing a tale of two Britains.

“While working people are suffering the longest pay squeeze in modern history, the super-rich are coining it in.

“Porsche sales are at record highs, bankers’ bonuses are at eyewatering levels, and CEO pay is surging.

“Enough is enough. We need an economy that rewards work – not just wealth.

“Fair tax must play a central role in rewiring our economy to work for working people.”

Shapps to convene Downing Street energy summit

Energy Security Secretary Grant Shapps meets with industry leaders to discuss the Government’s energy security and business plans to invest over £100bn, including to accelerate renewables, to help grow our economy
Discussions include new powers to protect critical energy infrastructure from disruptive protest groups and maintain energy supply
Summit hosted at No10 Downing Street as part of Government push to strengthen energy security, support jobs and attract investment in the UK’s energy industry

Leaders of the UK’s energy industry will meet in Downing Street today to discuss their plans to collectively invest over £100bn and create jobs around the country, working with Government to boost energy security.

Energy Security Secretary Grant Shapps will meet a wide range of energy companies – including EDF, SSE, Shell and BP, who collectively have multi-billion pound plans to invest in low and zero-carbon projects.

Each of these will support thousands of jobs across the country, which could help reduce household energy bills while delivering cleaner, more secure sources of energy, to deliver on the ambition to have the lowest wholesale electricity prices in Europe by 2035.

Mr Shapps will outline Government measures to protect UK energy supplies from disruption both at home and abroad. He will highlight decisions to invest in home-grown energy sources – including renewables, a revival in nuclear power, and backing North Sea oil and gas.

But he will also highlight measures to protect critical energy infrastructure from disruptive protests. This follows in the wake of protests such as those at the Kingsbury and Thurrock clusters of oil terminals and Grangemouth refinery.

The Public Order Act now includes a new criminal offence of interfering with key national infrastructure – including oil refineries – aimed at preventing protests from causing or threatening public safety or serious disruption.

It particularly addresses tactics that these protesters have used such as locking on and tunneling.

Energy Security Secretary Grant Shapps said: “We need to send the message loud and clear to the likes of Putin that we will never again be held to ransom with energy supply. The companies I am meeting in Downing Street today will be at the heart of that.

“Energy industry leaders can see that this Government will back home-grown, secure energy – whether that’s renewables, our revival in nuclear, or our support for our vital oil and gas industry in the North Sea.

“But it is a sad reality that we also need to protect our critical national infrastructure from disruptive protests. Today I’ll be setting out what we are doing to achieve this and want to hear from the energy companies the vital work they are doing in this area.”

Energy firms have demonstrated their confidence to invest in the UK, and collectively the firms meeting at 10 Downing Street plan to invest tens of billions over the next decade in energy projects across the country.

Some of these investment commitments include:

Shell UK aims to invest £20-25 billion in the UK energy system over the next 10 years. More than 75% of this is intended for low and zero-carbon products and services.
BP intends to invest up to £18bn in the UK to the end of 2030.
SSE plc have announced plans to invest £18bn up to 2027 in low carbon infrastructure creating 1,000 new jobs every year to 2025. SSE’s plans could see it invest up to £40bn across the decade to 2031/32.
National Grid plc will be investing over £16bn in the five-year period to 2026.
EDF have outlined plans to invest £13bn to 2025.
RWE have an ambition to invest up to £15bn in clean energy infrastructure in the UK by 2030.

To provide greater reassurance and support to industry, the Energy Security Secretary will outline the range of measures the Government is taking to protect energy infrastructure from intentional disruption, as well as maintaining the network’s strong resilience.

This includes:

The Public Order Act, with specific powers coming into effect in July to protect critical infrastructure;
Working with the Police to ensure protestors cannot gain unauthorised access to sites;
The work of the Civil Nuclear Constabulary, whose 1,300 officers and 300 support staff operate to protect nuclear sites across England, Scotland and Wales

The Energy Security Secretary will also discuss progress on major UK energy investment projects across renewable projects, oil and gas, new nuclear, and new technologies such as carbon capture.

They include:

Carbon capture – earlier this week, the Prime Minister announced two further projects in Humber and the North East of Scotland, which can move towards becoming clusters for this new technology – alongside eight already being considered, and two existing clusters in the North East, and in the North West and Wales.
Oil and gas – The Prime Minister has also confirmed future licensing rounds will continue for the extraction of oil and gas in the North Sea – while the North Sea Transition Authority reports they have received over 115 bids from 76 companies in the latest licensing round.
Nuclear – companies can now register their interest with the UK’s new organisation, Great British Nuclear, to secure funding support to develop new technologies including Small Modular Reactors.
Offshore wind – the UK has the world’s largest operational wind farms off its shores, with plans for further development off the East Anglia Coast and at Dogger Bank in the North East which could collectively provide enough clean energy for over 6.5million homes.

Is Scotland heading into recession?

This week the Scottish Government published monthly GDP statistics for the month of May. These showed that the economy contracted in May by 0.2% (writes Fraser of Allander Institute’s MAIRI SPOWAGE).

This follows (larger than thought before) contractions in March and April, which means that in total the economy has contracted by 0.4% in the 3 months to May.

Now, these monthly figures can of course be volatile, and we shouldn’t read too much into the individual movements every month. The first estimates that are produced for each month and quarter are also more subject to revision than older estimates.

This has been underlined by the media line “Scotland is growing at 4 times of the UK” (which we discussed the issues with as part of a previous update) now no longer being true for the first quarter of the year. For the first quarter, the new estimate is that Scotland grew by 0.2% compared to 0.1% for the UK as a whole.

The recent monthly contractions have also meant that the size of the Scottish economy has dipped slightly below that all-important level of February 2020, the so-called “pre-pandemic levels of output”.

Bearing in mind the caveats above, we can see in the latest figures significant contractions in the wholesale and retail and accommodation and food services sectors, perhaps signalling the contraction in consumer-facing services we have been expecting given the pressure on household budgets.

In production, there was a very large contraction in the electricity and gas supply sector, which, given the dominance of wind generation in Scotland, is likely to reflect the weather in May (i.e. it wasn’t very windy). The construction sector has also shown contractions in each of the last 3 months, although in general, this sector’s output is well above pre-pandemic levels.

Towards the end of August, we’ll get the figures for June which will give us the first estimate of the figure for the full quarter. There will have to be a significant recovery in June for that not to be a contraction overall. Of course, there would also have to be a contraction in Q3 for us to be technically in recession.

We’ll also be looking with interest at the new forecasts produced by the Bank of England next week. The decision on rates will of course take the headlines. The Bank’s view may soften slightly, with market expectations coalescing around a 0.25 rise in the base rate. However, we’ll also be digging through their new forecasts to see what the Bank is expecting to happen for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

We’ll discuss all this in next week’s update! Enjoy the weekend, whether you’re seeing Barbie, Oppenheimer, or simply dodging the rain at a BBQ!

Ministers reveal new plans to boost animated film productions in UK

Increased tax relief to boost Britain’s animated film production
Measure is “about backing business to innovate and grow the UK economy”
Draft legislation also published to clarify design details underpinning a simplified Research and Development Scheme

Animated film productions in the UK are set for a boost as the government reveals increased tax relief, to take effect from 1 January 2024.

The creative industry has grown at more than 1.5 times the rate of the wider economy over the past decade, making it an important sector for the Chancellor’s plan to grow the economy.

The new tax changes announced today are expected to be worth £5 million each year to business and come alongside the Audio-Visual Expenditure Credit which was uplifted at budget from 33.33% to 39%. This also follows the Creative Industries Sector Vision published last month which set an ambition to grow the creative industries by an extra £50 billion by 2030.

These changes are a key part of the government’s plan to get the economy growing and make the UK the best place in the world to start and grow a business.

Financial Secretary to the Treasury Victoria Atkins said: “We want the UK to be the best place to start and grow a business and while we have the lowest corporation tax rate in the G7, we are not complacent.

“The changes we are making are about backing business to innovate and grow the UK economy, creating good jobs across the country.”

This measure is part of 23 tax announcements published as part of the government’s ‘Legislation Day’, where draft legislation for an upcoming Finance Bill is published, as well as technical tax documents and consultations mostly from measures announced at the Spring Budget.

Also published is the proposed design for a simplified R&D scheme, which would be born out of a merger from two previous schemes, as well as draft legislation also published to cement a further new £500 million per year scheme to support 20,000 R&D intensive SMEs.

A final decision will be made in the Autumn on whether to merge the Research and Development Expenditure Credit and Small Medium Enterprise relief schemes to form a new scheme. A merged scheme would simplify the system, by creating a single set of qualifying rules, and giving clarity on how much could be claimed before claims are made.

On Legislation Day the government also announced that:

From today, any Ukrainian who has arrived in the UK under the Family, Sponsor and Extension Ukrainian visa schemes will no longer need to register or tax their vehicle. This will last 36 months, in line with the length of their visas, and can be applied retrospectively from one’s arrival, potentially saving them hundreds of pounds.
Income tax will be exempt on payments made under the Family Network Support Package, which are aimed to keep children out of state care and in their family network where appropriate and in their best interests. The Department for Education will set out further details on the pilot scheme in the summer.
It will simplify the process so people who need to start paying the High Income Child Benefit Charge will not need to fill out a Self-Assessment form to pay the charge, but will be able to do it through their tax code. HMRC will set out in due course how it will do this.

The House of Commons adjourned on Thursday 20 July for summer recess and will next sit on Monday 4 September at 2.30pm.

A mixture of sunshine and showers

The economy in recent weeks has resembled the Scottish weather: not quite the summer we hoped for but definitely could be worse, and we hope for better to come (writes Fraser of Allander’s Institute’s EMMA CONGREVE).

Inflation easing

This week’s announcement on inflation coming in at 7.9% in the year to June 2023 was lower than markets were expecting.

According to the ONS, the fall was driven by lower motor fuel prices and an easing in the rate of food price growth. We’re sure readers of the FAI weekly update don’t need to be reminded of this, but just in case, remember that a drop in the inflation rate does not mean that average prices are falling.

However, as the Resolution Foundation’s Torsten Bell pointed out in a useful thread on Twitter, in June 2023 it looks like we (finally) had a situation where average wage growth was higher than inflation, meaning that real wages rose.

Of course, averages are just that, and will not apply to all, but it’s a chink of sunshine nonetheless. Many will hope that this easing of inflation will ease the pressure on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

The next rate decision is due on the 3rd of August.

Recent labour market news

On the 11th June, the latest labour market statistics were released covering the period March to May 2023.

The employment rate reduced slightly over this period, leading to an increase in both unemployment (people seeking work) and inactivity (people not working and not seeking work).

Inactivity statistics have been moving in opposite directions in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK over recent quarters, although as the chart shows, this follows a period of relative convergence of the UK and Scottish rates, and rates have tended to be higher in Scotland than the UK average over recent years.

Chart: Economic Inactivity Rates in Scotland and UK

“Risky” Finances

According to the OBR, in a report published on the 13th July, the pressure on UK public finances has risen considerably over the last year, due to a combination of inflation and interest rate rises, and accelerated changes in demographic change.

One key part of this is the fact that the UK has a relatively high proportion of inflation linked debt compared to other advanced economies. Their frankly terrifying forecasts see UK public debt rising to over 300% of GDP over the next 50 years, from around 100% now (indeed statistics out today show that the UK’s debt pile is now officially higher than GDP in June 2023).

Nothing is inevitable, and these forecasts are drawn up to provide context and evidence for government decision-making in the years ahead. Difficult decisions, as ever, loom.

That’s it for this week. If you haven’t seen it yet, I’d encourage you to watch our colleague Adam’s presentation as part of this year’s Pride in Economics Event. You can find it on our website.