Tag: Economy

Support for the ‘Left Behinds’

A Treasury Committee recommendation calling for more support for “Left behinds” who are not currently eligible for either of the Government’s Coronavirus support schemes for employees and the self-employed should be adopted without delay, say leading tax and advisory firm Blick Rothenberg.

Robert Salter, a Director at the firm, said: “There are still too many people falling through the gaps, around one million getting no support whatsoever. 

“Whilst credit should be given to the Government for having developed the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) and the Self-Employed Income Support Scheme (SEISS), it was always clear that these schemes were designed for ‘simplicity’ and ‘administrative ease’ rather than for fairness.

“The Treasury Committee’s push to have the Government widen these schemes to those workers who were previously left behind should be welcomed by all those who appreciate fairness and justice in the tax and benefits systems.

He added: “The Committee recommends extending Government support to groups such as those employees who started (or were due to start), employment in March 2020 or afterwards, those workers who genuinely go from short-term engagement to short-term engagement (e.g. free contract workers), Personal Service Company directors who pay themselves via dividends rather than salary and those self-employed individuals who started self-employment in 2019/20 (or in some cases part way through the 2018/19 tax year).

“They also say that the Government should manage the risk of fraud with these cases, but that it is unlikely to present a problem in most of these situations.”

He added: “Established, freelance contractors who have been working for a number of employers on a contract-by-contract basis would usually have submitted tax returns in previous years.  Similarly, established directors of Personal Service Companies would have a similar tax history and would have been filing tax returns to report their dividend income in previous years.  As such, many of the ‘left behinds’ are, from a Revenue data and information perspective, in exactly the same position as other individuals already eligible for CJRS and SEISS support.”

Job retention scheme shows we’re stronger together, says Briggs

Lothian list Conservative MSP Miles Briggs has praised the UK Government’s job retention scheme which has protected over 100,000 jobs in Edinburgh and the Lothians.

City of Edinburgh 58,400
West Lothian 21,700
East Lothian 12,500
Midlothian 11,200
Total 103,800

He says the UK Government’s job retention scheme is an excellent example of how Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom are stronger together.

The Covid-19 pandemic is an unprecedented national and global crisis which the Scottish and UK government have responded to together.

The UK Government has provided further support to businesses and individuals in Scotland through the self-employed scheme, bounce back loans, VAT referrals and increases in welfare support such as Universal Credit, as well as an extra £3.8 billion in support through Barnett Consequential funding.

Lothian MSP, Miles Briggs, commented: “Lockdown in response to the outbreak of Covid-19 has been challenging for businesses throughout Edinburgh and the Lothians.

“The uncertainty caused by this pandemic has put tens of thousands of jobs at risk, which the job retention scheme has managed to make more secure.

“It is remarkable that the UK government has been able to protect so many jobs during this pandemic.

“We must now focus on getting the economy moving again so that Edinburgh and the Lothians can start recovering from the Covid-19 outbreak. I have called on SNP Ministers to establish a Recovery Taskforce for Edinburgh and the Lothians.”

First Minister fears ‘significant rise in unemployment’

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at a media briefing in St Andrew’s House yesterday (Friday 12 June):

Good afternoon, and welcome to today’s briefing. I am joined today by the Cabinet Secretary for the Economy, Fair Work and Culture Fiona Hyslop and our National Clinical Director, Jason Leitch.

Let me start, as always, with an update on some of the key statistics in relation to Covid-19.

As at 9 o’clock this morning, there have been 15,709 positive cases confirmed through our NHS laboratories, and that is an increase of 27 from yesterday.

A total of 914 patients are in hospital with confirmed or suspected Covid-19. That represents an increase of 5 overall from yesterday. However, the number of confirmed cases within that has reduced by 20.

A total of 23 people last night were in intensive care with confirmed or suspected COVID-19, and that is an increase of two since yesterday.

I am also able to confirm that since 5 March, a total of 3,873 patients who had tested positive and needed hospital treatment have since been able to leave hospital. I wish all of them well.

In the last 24 hours, 3 deaths were registered of patients confirmed through a test as having the virus. That takes the total number of deaths in Scotland, under that measurement, to 2,442.

Even as we see these figures decline –  thankfully so – it is nevertheless really important that we don’t lose sight of the fact that they are not just statistics. They all represent unique loved individuals whose loss is a source of grief to many people. So once again, my condolences are with everyone who has lost a loved one to this illness.

I will also express again my thanks to our health and care workers. Your efforts are enormously appreciated and, again, even as we see numbers in hospital and intensive care reducing, we know that you are still working incredibly hard in difficult circumstances, and you have our deep gratitude for that.

There are two items I want to update on today.

The first relates to the economy.  Today’s GDP figures show that in April the UK economy contracted by more than 20%.  That is – by some distance – the largest decline on record.  And it confirms the scale of the economic crisis that has inevitably been caused by the health crisis that we face.

I have previously welcomed the UK Government’s interventions, especially the furlough scheme which has helped to preserve jobs during this period but, in my view, it is now time to signal a further extension of Treasury support.

Other countries have already made this move, including France where plans are being put in place for a long-term partial activity scheme covering possibly, as long as the next two years.

The alternative to extended support being put in place is either that businesses are forced to re-open before it is safe to do so – and that of course could damage health and it could cost lives – or businesses have to take an even bigger hit, and that will cost jobs.

In my view neither of those two alternatives is acceptable so I hope we will see further action from the UK Government and we look forward to working constructively with them, playing our full part in making all of that happen.

The fall in GDP is obviously something we discussed in this morning’s weekly meeting of the Scottish Cabinet’s economic sub-committee.

We also looked ahead to the publication of the latest statistics on Scotland’s labour market, next Tuesday.  Those figures will cover February to April of this year – so that’s a period which obviously includes the first full month of lockdown.

I don’t want to pre-empt that publication, I’m not able to pre-empt it, but we do expect to see a significant impact on employment, and a rise in unemployment. And sadly, despite all of our best efforts that situation is likely to remain challenging in the period ahead.

And of course, all of that is before we factor in any potential impact on the economy from Brexit.

That is why I have today joined with the First Minister of Wales in writing to the UK Government calling for an extended Brexit transition period – to take away the risk of a ‘no deal’ outcome and also to make sure that all of us remain focused on supporting business through the post-COVID recovery, and not making the challenges that the economy and our businesses face any worse than it already is.

That is the action I believe we need from the UK, but I am acutely aware of the responsibility I have as First Minister, and that the Scottish Government has, to make sure we are doing everything within our power, and resources.

That is relevant to the announcement I’m making today because we are incredibly focused on making sure we are taking action to protect jobs and, hopefully in the future to create jobs, as we lead our economy through the post-COVID recovery.

The impact of this crisis is of course felt across our whole economy. I had discussions yesterday with the tourism sector – a sector particularly hard hit. And we know there are other sectors that are particularly badly affected too.

For example, Scotland’s energy sector is facing a massive decline in global demand, and that is having a very serious impact on our economy.

The Scottish Government wants to do everything we can to support the energy sector through this crisis.

We want to protect jobs and businesses in the north-east of Scotland and across the country. And in doing that we want to make sure that the sector is able to continue to lead, and indeed to benefit from Scotland’s necessary transition to a net-zero economy.

That’s why today, I’m announcing a new £62 million energy transition fund.

Over the next 5 years the Fund will support key energy projects which will help Scotland’s move to net-zero.

For example, one project – the Global Underwater Hub – brings together engineering expertise from academia and industry.  And it will help our oil and gas sector to use its existing subsea and underwater expertise in new areas such as marine renewables.

Another project receiving support will be the Energy Transition Zone – a new business park adjacent to the Aberdeen South Harbour.  That will provide state of the art facilities for the manufacturing and development of renewable and low carbon technologies.

Almost inevitably, given the focus of the fund is the transition from oil and gas to renewables, the projects which directly benefit from this fund are currently based in the north east of Scotland.  But by securing Scotland’s place as a world leader in key technologies for the future, they will help businesses right across the country to diversify, to attract new investment, seize new opportunities and both protect and create jobs.

We know that the energy transition will shape our country’s economic future.  That was true before the COVID crises and it remains true during and after the COVID crisis.

Through these investments not only will we shape that energy future and economic future, we will also help with the economic recovery from the crisis currently afflicting so many businesses across Scotland.

The second issue I want to touch on today concerns the Scottish Government’s approach to easing restrictions.

As I’m sure many of you know and will be eagerly anticipating, the current restrictions will be reviewed again on Thursday next week.

Our considerations will be informed, as they will always be, by the scientific evidence and advice and the clear principles we have set out.

However, I have been acutely aware throughout this crisis that it’s not, and never will be, enough for me simply to tell you what I want you to do.

I also have a duty to explain to you, on an ongoing basis, the reasons behind what we are asking you to do.

In fact the reason that I conduct these press briefings on a daily basis is to ensure that you get clear and direct information – on the impact of COVID-19 and on the country’s response.

That’s vital to ensuring that people understand the threat this virus poses – but also how we can all work together to reduce and mitigate that threat.

I’ve spoken before about some of the research we undertake to check that the messages we’re trying to convey are getting across.

We’re going to publish the latest research today so that you are able, if you are interested, to read it for yourself.
It shows, amongst other things that the vast majority of people in Scotland continue to support a careful and gradual easing of the restrictions.

But the aspect of the research I wanted to particularly highlight today is around public attitudes to our new Test and Protect system.

The research shows that 90% of people say that they would be willing to isolate for 14 days if someone they had come into contact with had symptoms of the virus.

90% said they would be willing to undergo Coronavirus testing if asked to do this.

And 88% are happy to provide details of people they had been in contact with if they develop coronavirus symptoms.

That’s important and it’s also really encouraging because, as I’ve said to you before, Test and Protect is going to be a vital tool in keeping the virus suppressed as we ease more restrictions.

But Test and Protect can only work if all of us across the country are willing to comply with the measures that it sets out – if we’re willing to get tested when we have symptoms, if we’re willing to isolate if we have the virus, and if we’re willing to self-isolate if we’ve been a close contact of someone with the virus.

So these research findings, showing that willingness to make personal sacrifices for the common good, are really encouraging and I want to thank everybody for that spirit of collective endeavour that I think we all still have.

Now I want to conclude today with a key point about the critical juncture that we are at in fighting this virus.

I know that as cases, hospitalisations, numbers in intensive care, deaths, and the R number all decline, many will think that means we should speed up our exit from lockdown. And I understand that.

We are all deeply, deeply anxious about the impact on the economy. But the fact is this; the reason we are making such good progress now is that we are carefully, following a plan.

And if we depart from that plan we will risk the progress we’re making.

On the other hand, if we’re prepared to stick with the plan I believe we will keep making further progress.

And the more we suppress this virus, the more lives will be saved and the fewer people will suffer the long term health consequences that increasingly we fear that it might leave some people with.

But also, if we suppress this virus sufficiently, we will be able to restore a greater degree of normality to all of our lives.

So while I understand the desire for speed of recovery, the sustainability of our recovery also really matters.

The simple fact is if we go too fast now we risk a resurgence of the virus that will then set us back, and that is a risk, in my view, we must be careful not to take.

So I very much hope that we can and will take more steps forward at next week’s review, but I want to be very clear that we must continue to do that carefully and cautiously. And if we do, we will continue to suppress this virus, and it will mean that we get back to more normality than we will otherwise do.

All of you can help us in moving in the right direction by sticking with the rules.

So as we head into the weekend I want to briefly reiterate again the key public health guidance that is in place for now.

We should all still be staying at home most of the time and meeting fewer people than normal.

If your life feels like it is getting back to normal think about whether you’re complying with the guidance as you should be.

When you meet people from another household you must stay outdoors and you must stay two metres apart from them.

Don’t meet up with more than one household at a time. Don’t meet up with more than one a day. And please keep to a maximum of eight people in a group.

Wash your hands, often. Wear a face covering when you are in a shop or public transport – or in any enclosed space where it is more difficult to physically distance.

Avoid touching hard surfaces and clean those that you do touch.

And, as I have said already, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 ask for a test immediately – go to the NHS Inform website and follow the advice on self-isolation.

Above all else we all have to remember that we are still in a situation where our actions as individuals have an impact on the health and well-being of everybody.

So I want to end again today by thanking you sincerely for your patience, for your forbearance, and for making the sacrifices you are making so that collectively as a country we continue to get through this crisis.

My thanks to all of you and I will now hand over to the Economy Secretary to say a few words before handing over to Professor Leitch.

FM: Young People – you are not immune

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at a media briefing in St Andrew’s House on Friday 5 June:

Good afternoon everyone. As you can see, I’m joined today by Iain Livingstone, Chief Constable of Police Scotland and by Professor Jason Leitch, our National Clinical Director.

I’ll start today – as I always do – by updating you on some of the key statistics in relation to COVID-19.

As at 9 o’clock this morning, there have been 15,582 positive cases confirmed – which is an increase of 29 from yesterday.

A total of 995 patients are in hospital with confirmed or suspected COVID-19. That represents a decrease of 26 from yesterday, including a decrease of nine in the number of confirmed cases.

Now as I said yesterday, in relation to the number of people who had their deaths registered in the previous day, we have to be very careful at reading too much into single day figures, but nevertheless I think it is reasonable to point out, that this is the first time since the 30 March, that the number of patients in hospital has been lower than 1,000. So again, a positive indication of the progress that we are making.

A total of 23 people last night were in intensive care with confirmed or suspected COVID-19. That is a decrease of five since yesterday.

I am also able to confirm today that since 5 March, a total of 3,778 patients who had tested positive for the virus have now been able to leave hospital.

In the last 24 hours though, 14 deaths have been registered of patients confirmed through a test as having COVID-19 – that takes the total number of deaths in Scotland, under that measurement, to 2,409.

Now as I always do, I want to stress that these numbers are not just statistics. They are individuals whose loss is being deeply felt by their loved ones. So – once again – I want to send my deepest condolences to everyone who has lost a loved one to this virus.

I also want to express my thanks – as I always do – to our health and care workers.  Your efforts are enormously appreciated – and not just by me and by the Scottish Government, they are appreciated, I know, by everyone in Scotland.

There are – of course – many other frontline and key workers who are helping the country through this crisis and with the Chief Constable here today, I want to take the opportunity to say a special thank you again, to our police officers and staff. They are also working under real pressure at the moment but they are doing an exceptional job for all of us.

There are two items I want to cover today.

The first concerns the economic impact of COVID-19.  I have just come from the Cabinet sub-committee on the economy earlier this morning – where we noted the latest monthly report, from our Chief Economist. 

That document, which was published this morning, provides a summary of Scotland’s key economic statistics.

Among other things, it shows that – in the first half of May – almost 1/5 of businesses in Scotland were temporarily closed and that contributed to more than 750,000 people being furloughed or unable to work as normal.

The report also shows that turnover is down in almost every sector of our economy.

And it contains new modelling, which takes account of the different phases for easing lockdown. On that basis, the report forecasts a more gradual economic recovery – one which might not see us return to pre-crisis levels, for a number of years.

In short, today’s publication confirms the scale of the economic crisis that we now face. In doing that, it further underlines why government action is so important and why it will continue to be so important.

The Scottish Government has already allocated more than £2.3 billion to help businesses and protect jobs.  And of course that’s before we consider important UK-wide measures currently in place – such as the Job Retention scheme.

That kind of support is helping to mitigate some of the economic impact of this crisis.  And it will continue to be vital as our businesses seek to rebuild.

And I want to again today give an assurance that the Scottish Government is determined to everything we can to support that process of rebuilding and recovery.  We will continue to do everything we can to protect your livelihoods.   That’s important in the short-term, but it is also vital to help lay the groundwork, for a sustainable economic recovery.

Of course that recovery will be helped by continued progress against this virus. If we have a set-back in tackling the virus, it will make the re-opening of our economy all the more difficult.

So the second item I want to cover today, is directly related to the first, and it concerns the current lockdown restrictions and particularly how I hope the people will comply with them over this weekend and beyond.

We’re now, of course, at the close of the first full week since we moved into phase 1 of our route map out of lockdown – and eased some of the restrictions.  So far, the vast majority of people have stuck by the new rules.  And I want to take the opportunity again today, to thank all of you who have continued to do the right thing.

However, it’s also clear that – over the past week – not absolutely everyone has done that.  The Chief Constable may say more later about compliance – and how the restrictions will be enforced, if necessary.

For my part, I want to set out very clearly again today, what the current rules are.  And to do that, instead of focussing on what we are now allowed to do, I want to again emphasise what we’re asking everyone not to do because it’s by not doing the things, that we know from the evidence that allows the virus to spread more easily, that we will keep it under control.

So to start, you mustn’t meet people from other households indoors. I know that might be a particular temptation on a weekend like this – when we’re expecting again poor weather. 

But let me be clear, that is extremely high risk. We know –  and we don’t know everything yet about this virus – but we do know that it transmits much more easily between people inside than it does outside.

So if you’re not willing to meet outdoors  – in all likelihood the rain  – please do not meet up with people from other households at all and I cannot emphasise that strongly enough.

I am not exaggerating when I say that if you do meet people from other households indoors, you are putting yourselves and you are putting them at risk of getting the virus of becoming ill with it and potentially dying from it and I would ask you not – please – to take that risk.

However, while the risk of meeting outdoors is lower, it is not absolutely zero  – so that means that if you do meet outdoors, you must not get within 2 metres of members of another household.

You should certainly not be shaking their hands or hugging them, difficult though I know that is and you shouldn’t share food of utensils with people from other households of touch hard surfaces that they may also have touched because again, these are ways in which we know the virus spreads relatively easily.

And were asking that – when two households do meet up – there should be no more than eight people in total in a group. In addition, you should not go more than five miles for recreation and you shouldn’t leave your face uncovered if you are in and enclosed space like a shop and public transport.

Wearing a face covering helps you protect others – and having others wear a face covering – means that they help protect you.

A more general point I want to make is that – even now – you should still be seeing far fewer people than you might normally do.  And you should still be trying to stay at home as much as you possible.

Basically, if you start to feel that your social life is returning to normal – that’s not a good sign right now.

That message applies to everyone – but it’s perhaps particularly relevant to young people. I want, today, to make a special plea to all of you, the young people of Scotland.

Many of you – I know – will be desperate to spend more time with your pals, after weeks of being apart.  You might even think that as young people, you are less likely to become seriously ill as a result of the virus and I know this from speaking to the young people in my own life.

But I want to be very clear – you are not immune from this virus, you can get it and it can be very harmful to you.

But even if you’re not seriously affected yourself, you can still pass it on to other young people.  They might then pass it on to others who are at greater risk from COVID-19 – such as their parents or grandparents.  And that could have really tragic consequences.

So I would urge you – and I know you all know how important this is  –  please don’t just think about your own risk, please think about the risk to your parents and your grandparents and to your friends’ parents and grandparents.

Don’t take risks that you could end up regretting and possibly grieving in the weeks ahead. Please stick to the rules.

Can I also say finally, just a very brief word and a very heartfelt word to those who I know want to make their voices heard this weekend in support of Black Lives Matter.

I want to urge you to make your voices heard. We all feel very strongly about this but I want to ask you, to do so safely.

In normal times, I may well have been planning to join a gathering of support this weekend. But coming together in mass gatherings right now is simply not safe. It poses a real risk to health and it poses a real risk to life.

So I would encourage you to read the statement that was issued yesterday by Kadi Johnson, Sheku Bayoh’s sister, and by Humza Yousaf, Anas Sarwar and Aamer Anwar asking people to protest in different ways.

For example you can make your voice heard online, you can lobby elected representatives, or you can make a donation to anti-racism campaigns but please, please, try to stay within the rules that are there for your own protection and above all please stay safe.

In fact, that’s a message which all of us should heed.  If you’re wondering whether or not it’s okay to do something this weekend, ask yourself if you’ve giving the virus an opportunity to spread.   And if you’re in doubt about whether your plans are within the rules or not, please err on the side of caution.

Above all else, please remember that every single decision we take right now as individuals, will affect the safety and the wellbeing of everyone.

The progress we’ve made against this virus – over these past few weeks – is real and I say that every day because I mean it – and it is as a result of all of us, overwhelmingly, sticking to these rules.  And that kind of collective effort will continue to be vital – as we slow the spread of this virus, even further.

I’m confident that the vast majority of you will continue to play your part.  And I want thank all of you, in advance, for showing that solidarity with each other and for doing exactly that.

Green Recovery Summit

Scotland’s environment experts to inform economic recovery after coronavirus with online Green Recovery Summit

Environmental protection must be prioritised in economic recovery plans, Scotland’s top sustainability experts are to tell decision-makers next week. 

Around 50 of the nation’s thought-leaders on the environment and the green economy are to come together on Monday (8 June) to outline their vision for a sustainable recovery from the coronavirus. 

An online summit hosted by the Royal Scottish Geographical Society (RSGS) and sponsored by Zero Waste Scotland will bring together industry experts, transport chiefs, academics and policy advisors to shape the environmental considerations that must be at the core of Scotland’s strategy for economic recovery post-pandemic.

Delegates at the invite-only Green Recovery Summit are expected to discuss a number of considerations, from financing the green recovery to sustainable procurement, then collectively decide which options to prioritise before the half-day event concludes.

A report from the summit is expected to help shape recommendations to the Scottish Government ahead of a recovery plan for Scotland. 

The Green Recovery Summit builds on four earlier events designed to generate solutions to the climate emergency – including most recently the role of the construction industry in driving the circular economy, in which products and materials are made to last for as long as possible. 

Iain Gulland, Chief Executive of Zero Waste Scotland, said: “We are all aware that swift, decisive action is needed to avoid deepening the climate emergency we find ourselves in.

“Scotland has long been recognised as a leading nation on the circular economy, and as we emerge from the coronavirus pandemic we have an unprecedented opportunity to reaffirm our commitment to a more sustainable future. 

“The circular economy has huge potential for Scotland with economic opportunities worth up to £3billion estimated before coronavirus impacted the economy, as well as significant benefits for our environment.

“As we set out key next steps that will shape how we live and work for years to come, it’s vital that we ensure progress towards a greener, more resilient economy is right at the heart of our plans.” 

Mike Robinson, Chief Executive of the Royal Scottish Geographical Society (RSGS), said: “The coronavirus pandemic has transformed our societies both nationally and globally, and we have borrowed a huge amount of money to get us through this crisis.

“It is vital we use this coming period to build and shape our continuing emergence from this crisis in a way that ensures we best protect ourselves from any future ones.

“Climate change has to be the most profound of these, and it would be a huge missed opportunity not to use this forced change as a springboard for a transformation to a more sustainable society.

“The upcoming Green Recovery Summit is a perfect platform to propose positive changes and present solutions.”

 

Scottish Firms’ confidence rises but remains near record low

Bank of Scotland’s Business Barometer for May 2020 shows: 

  • Overall confidence for firms in Scotland rose 17 points in the past month to -33%
  • Firms’ confidence in their own business prospects was -26%, compared with -29% in April
  • Growing number of firms experienced an increase in demand for goods and services

Business confidence in Scotland rose 17 points during May to -33%, remaining near record lows, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.

Companies in Scotland reported higher confidence in their own business prospects than in April at -26%. When taken alongside their views of the economy overall, this gives a headline confidence reading of -33%.

The Business Barometer questions 1,200 businesses monthly and provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.

In an illustration of the impact COVID-19 is having on Scotland’s business, the majority of firms continued to see demand negatively affected during May, but with the picture improving slightly since April.

65% experienced a fall in demand for their products and services, down seven points on the month before. Meanwhile, 12% experienced an increase in demand, up on 5% in April.

The number of Scottish firms operating at less than 50% capacity increased 18 points to 43%. A fifth of firms (20%) weren’t operating at all, down from 32% in April.

Of the 75% of businesses reporting disruption to their supply chain during May, 19% expected the situation to improve within three months, while 14% expected it would take more than 12 months to return to normal levels.

Fraser Sime, regional director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking, said: “Scottish firms have been hit hard by this crisis, but they’re showing resilience in the face of great challenge.

“It’s encouraging to see that some businesses are beginning to reopen as demand creeps back. We’re standing shoulder-to-shoulder with companies from all sectors to help them overcome the challenges presented during this difficult time.”

National overview

Across the UK, business confidence held steady month-on-month, dipping just one point to   -33%. The North East and London both saw confidence rise month-on-month, scoring the joint-highest confidence reading at -20%. The South West recorded lowest confidence at         -51%, compared to -35% the month prior.

From a regional perspective, despite all being in negative sentiment, six of the 12 regions reported a higher confidence in May. The North East was the least negative region at -20%. The South West was the most negative region at -51% followed by the South East at -45%.

In May, the construction sector saw the sharpest decline, falling 24 percentage points to -44%. However, all the three other major sectors saw a modest increase. The retail sector increased eight points to -25%, while manufacturing rose to -27% and services saw a small increase of four points to -18%.

Paul Gordon, Managing Director for SME and Mid Corporates, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “While May continued to show the unprecedented impact of the shutdown for businesses across the UK, it is important to see that now half of all regions are climbing back from the lowest levels seen last month.

“As Britain sees further easing of measures in the coming weeks, with more businesses re-opening, it is hoped that this will further improve businesses’ confidence. Government schemes and finance options continue to be made readily available to businesses so that they can be best placed and prepared to open once again in the months ahead.”

Hann-Ju Ho, Senior Economist, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “Despite the results partly capturing the period since the Government’s announcement of an initial easing of restrictions, trading conditions remain difficult for most firms.

“Nevertheless, a further relaxation of constraints will enable more businesses to resume their activities.”

‘A Better Recovery’: TUC plan to get Britain back on road to a healthy economy

The TUC has set out how the UK can recover from the coronavirus economic crisis, stop the despair of mass unemployment and set working families on a path to prosperity.   

Alongside the report, the TUC publishes analysis showing that the fastest recoveries from economic crises in UK history were based on investment for growth, not cuts to services, deregulation and tax breaks for millionaires and bosses.

75 years on from VE Day, the UK should emulate the post-war recovery  

TUC analysis shows that the decade of investment for growth (1947-57) that followed World WarTwo achieved an average growth rate of 3.3% But the decade of cuts (2009-19) that followed the bankers’ crisis achieved average growth of just 1.9%.

These examples are part of a wider pattern for the UK’s responses to economic crises over the last century. The UK recovers better and faster when the approach is investment for growth, prioritising workers’ wages, strong public services, a decent safety net and building the capacity of both private and public sectors.

Approaches based on cuts to spending only serve to hold back the whole economy. This can be seen not only during 2009-2019, but also during 1921-31, when severe cuts meant growth averaged just1.9%.

In both 1921-1931 and 2009-2019, slow growth led to higher national debt. By contrast, periods of recovery based on investment for growth have reduced national debt, because they are successful at generating broad growth and making the country wealthier.

A plan to get Britain growing out of the crisis – and stop mass unemployment  

The pandemic alone did not cause this economic crisis. It was made worse by a decade of austerity and failure to strengthen the UK’s economy. Choosing the wrong approach to recovery now risks embedding low growth, long-term unemployment and all the social ills that go alongside.

An investment for growth approach means taking action on six key areas: 

  1. Decent work and a new way of doing business: New business models based on fairer employment relationships. A fairer share for workers of the wealth they create, with a higher minimum wage and new collective bargaining rights.
  1. Sustainable industry: Economic stimulus for a just transition to net zero carbon. Rebuilding the UK’s industrial capacity with modern tech and training in new skills.
  1. A real safety net: Reforms to social security to provide help faster and prevent poverty. A job guarantee scheme so everyone can work and long-term unemployment does not take hold.
  1. Rebuilding public services: Bringing our public services back to full strength, with decent pay for those who looked after us in the crisis, and a new focus on good jobs and direct employment in social care.
  1. Equality at work: Specific actions to make sure women, disabled people and BME groups do not suffer disproportionately from the impact of the coronavirus recession.
  1. International solidarity: New international rules must prioritise decent jobs and public services for all.

The evidence from the post-war recovery is that this investment for growth recovery plan can pay for itself. Millions of working families with higher disposable income create the economic demand needed for strong growth and healthy public finances. Stronger public services and an effective safety net will support people to start and grow businesses, and will better protect against a future pandemic.

TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “The UK’s weak economy and ten years of cuts left our country unprepared for coronavirus. Only the dedication of millions of individual workers kept our country going.  

“Let’s learn the lesson. Together, we can work our way safely out of this recession. Let’s make sure everyone has a decent job, with fair pay and security for their family. Let’s thank our key workers with the pay rise they have earned. And let’s not consign millions of our fellow citizens to the despair of unemployment.

“Today the TUC publishes our plan for recovery. At its heart is good jobs. Jobs in a reborn UK manufacturing sector. Jobs in a social care sector finally getting some respect. Jobs in the green tech of the future. Let’s rebuild our country through hard work, determination and investment in all our futures – not cuts to spending, deregulation and tax breaks for millionaires and bosses.”

She added:  “Seventy-five years ago, Britain was bloodied, battered – and broke. Yet after the war Britain’s economy grew faster than ever before. We did it not by pay freezes and cuts, but making the priority decent jobs for everyone, new homes, infrastructure and a new national health service.   

“So let’s channel the spirit of 1945. Coronavirus doesn’t have to equal mass unemployment and a poorer, meaner country. We can do what the post-war generation did: grow our way out of this crisis and build a better life for everyone.”

TUC Report ‘A Better Recovery’

First Minister: further action to tackle ’employment challenge created by Covid’

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at a media briefing in St Andrew’s House on Tuesday 19 May:

Good afternoon everybody. Thank you for joining us. I want to start – as I always do – by updating you on some of the key statistics in relation to Covid-19 in Scotland.

As at 9 o’clock this morning, there have been 14,655 positive cases confirmed – an increase of 61 from yesterday.

A total of 1,447 patients are in hospital with Covid-19 – 969 who have been confirmed as having the virus, and 478 who are suspected of having Covid. That represents a total increase of 20 from yesterday, but within that a decrease of 36 in the number of confirmed cases.

A total of 59 people last night were in intensive care with either confirmed or suspected Covid 19. That is a decrease of 4 since yesterday.

I am also able to confirm today that since 5 March, a total of 3,408 patients who had tested positive for the virus have been able to leave hospital.

Unfortunately though I also have to report that in the last 24 hours, 29 deaths have been registered of patients who had been confirmed through a test as having Covid-19 – that takes the total number of deaths in Scotland, under that measurement, to 2,134.

Tomorrow we will have the latest publication from National Records of Scotland, which include not only people that have died having tested positive but all those deaths where Covid-19 has been mentioned on a death certificate.

As always, I want to send my deepest condolences to everyone who has lost and is grieving for a loved one as a result of this virus.

I also want to thank – as I always do – our health and care workers. The whole of the country continues to be very grateful to you for the extraordinary work that you are doing in these very challenging circumstances.

I have two items I want to briefly update on today. The first relates to the publication this morning of the latest employment figures in Scotland. These are for the period from January to March of this year. These are the first figures that include any of the period of the Covid-19 crisis.

They show that 113,000 people in Scotland are now unemployed – that is up from just under 100,000 in the previous three months.

That is an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Now, by historical standards, that actually is still a relatively low rate but of course it is important to stress that these figures, since they only extend up to the end of March, do not reflect the full economic impact of the pandemic.

They undoubtedly further demonstrate the need to carefully get our economy moving again as quickly as we are able to do that safely. And they underline the continuing need for government action to support the economy, and to help people keep their jobs or to enter or re-enter the workforce.

We know that the essential public health measures that we have had to take to deal with what is a public health emergency, are in themselves creating an economic emergency and that will have impact on people’s jobs, living standards and inequalities in our society.

And although the Job Retention Scheme has offered some relief to many employers and employees, I am very aware that many people will be deeply concerned about the future of their livelihoods.

That is why we have already allocated more than £2.3 billion to support businesses and protect livelihoods, and it is why we have welcomed so warmly many of the measures taken by the UK Government –including the Job Retention scheme.

In addition, Skills Development Scotland – as I discussed last week – has expanded its support for people seeking training or employment by establishing a phoneline and online service. The new online service – which highlights links to free courses which are available – has received 120,000 visits since it launched just over three weeks ago.

Today we are taking further action to tackle the employment challenge created by Covid.

Our Enterprise and Skills Strategic Board – which was first established 2 ½ years ago – will co-ordinate rapid action across our enterprise and skills agencies.

In doing so, it will ensure that our actions, now, are helping to equip people with the skills they need for the future. It will report back to us in June on what additional measures we need to take.

However I can confirm today that we will be investing a further £33 million to support people back to work as we gradually get the economy opened up again.

This initial  funding – most of which will be allocated to Fair Start Scotland, our devolved employability service –  will have a particular focus on helping those most adversely affected in times of economic downturn –  which are young people, disabled people and lone parents.

Today’s announcement is one further action amongst many in our efforts to tackle the economic impacts of this crisis, but it is, I think, an important one.

We know all too well from previous recessions that the longer people stay jobless, the greater the chance of further impacts – their skills can deteriorate, their confidence can fall, and that in turn can have an impact on future prospects.

We also know that these effects are of course bad for individuals – especially young people – and that they are also damaging for the economy as a whole. And that means that when an upturn comes, when the economy starts to recover, employers can find it more difficult to hire the people they need.

For all of these reasons, we are determined to do everything we can to protect Scotland’s workforce; to minimise – as far as we can  – the increase in unemployment; and to ensure that we are ready for a sustainable recovery. Today’s actions represent a further step in helping us to do that.

The second issue I want to talk about relates to the fact that this week is Mental Health Awareness Week. This year’s theme is kindness.

In many ways that’s especially appropriate right now. Kindness should, I think, be one of the core values of any good society.  And, as I suspect most of us have experienced in recent weeks, even small acts of kindness can make a huge difference to the way someone is feeling.

We have been aware throughout this crisis of the impact that Covid-19, and our lockdown measures, are likely to have on people’s mental health.

That is why we have expanded NHS 24’s telephone and online services to support mental health; it’s why we established a National Wellbeing Hub to support the mental health of NHS and social care staff; and it’s also why we launched the “Clear Your Head” campaign, which you may have seen in the media.

Clear Your Head provides practical advice on how to stay active, keep connected with friends and family, and create healthy routines to help get through this crisis.

Today we are making a further investment to support the mental health and wellbeing of parents and carers in particular.

Solihull Online is a programme that helps parents and carers to learn about what their  child may be going through, and developing nurturing and supportive relationships. From today, all parents and carers in Scotland will have access to the programme and if you are interested in this you can find more information by going to ParentClub.scot.

The final point I want to make, is that one of the most important things to remember during Mental Health Awareness Week, is that it’s okay not to feel okay – and that help is available.

You can speak to someone if you need to, and I would encourage you to do so. The Clear Your Head website – clearyourhead.scot – brings together our information about support that is available for mental health.

So please have a look at the website during the Awareness Week. And please, continue, as far as all of us can, to show kindness to each other as we try get through this crisis together.

Before I hand over to the CMO, I want to emphasise once again our key public health measures.

As is said yesterday, on Thursday this week we will publish a routemap, setting how on a phased basis, we will ease the lockdown while continuing to suppress the virus.

My hope and intention is that we will take the first concrete steps on that journey next week.

But, we will increase both the likelihood and the extent of that by sticking to the rules now.

Please stay at home except for essential purposes- such as daily exercise, going to essential work that you can’t do from home, or buying essential items.

You can now exercise more than once a day – but when you do leave home, stay more than 2 metres away from others. And do not meet up with people from other households.

Please think about wearing a face covering if you are in a shop or on public transport. And remember to wash your hands thoroughly and regularly.

Finally, if you or someone else in your household has symptoms of Covid-19, then you should stay at home completely. Those symptoms are a high temperature, a persistent cough, or now a change or loss of smell or taste.

For now, these restrictions do remain essential.

They are helping us to slow down the spread of the virus, to protect the NHS, and to save lives.

So thank you once again, to everyone, for your cooperation.

Report reveals impact of coronavirus on poverty in Edinburgh

City council leader Adam McVey has outlined the measures the Council will take following a report from the Edinburgh Poverty Commission into the impact the Covid-19 pandemic is having on residents in the city.

The interim Poverty and Coronavirus in Edinburgh report has taken testimonies from people directly affected by the pandemic focussing on areas such as jobs, people’s incomes, housing, homelessness, the cost of living, health and social isolation.

Leader Adam McVey pledged the Council will do everything it can to support those most in need and welcomed the report which will inform the future direction the Council takes in tackling poverty in the city.

He said: “I welcome that this report recognises the work done by the Council, partners, third sector and volunteers across the city to respond positively and quickly to deliver lifeline services including vital food and medical supplies for citizens affected by the coronavirus measure that have been put in place.

“Today’s report contains important findings with vital and timely testimonies on the real impact that lockdown is having on people’s lives. While we have all been affected by the ongoing situation, it is clear from this report that this pandemic has been particularly challenging for those who were already in or at risk of poverty in the city.

“We’re absolutely committed to making sure this evidence shapes our continuing response to this emergency over the coming months, as well as the planning for how we will rebuild the city when this crisis has passed.

“It’s so important that while we look to address the additional hardship and pressures this crisis has brought, we also build on the renewed sense of community and collaboration we have witnessed across the city.

“As we plan for Edinburgh’s recovery, we will continue to be ambitious and make sure our responses are guided by our long-term commitment to boosting sustainability, tackling poverty and improving residents’ wellbeing.

“We will continue working with the Scottish and UK Governments to secure the right level of ongoing financial support to allow us to rebuild and create a fairer city for all going forward.”

In specific response to the actions the Commission has put forward, the Council will:

  • continue to deliver compassionate support directly to people in the most need during this period of emergency – this includes support for essential food supplies and medicine deliveries to people self-isolating and offering critical support to people in vulnerable situations through our Resilience Centres
  • make sure the support mechanisms set up by UK and Scottish Governments reach everyone in Edinburgh who needs them – we’ve already processed over 4,600 applications for Scottish Welfare Fund support, distributed nearly £600,000 in crisis payments to citizens and directed £61m in government grants to organisations in Edinburgh to help employers and the self-employed
  • make sure safe and secure housing options continue to be available for those people in temporary accommodation and rough sleeping who have been housed through emergency measures during this crisis, and
  • make sure that the city takes a co-ordinated and joined up approach to responding to and recovering from this crisis.

In the coming weeks the Council will publish its first plans for how the city will adapt and rebuild from this crisis throughout the rest of this year and beyond. A key element of this recovery programme will be ensuring that the twin targets of being fair and green for all lie at its heart.

The council will continue to encourage partners who are invested in the prosperity of the city work with them to achieve a ‘fair and green economic recovery’ which will include the work of both the Edinburgh Poverty Commission and the Edinburgh Climate Commission.

The final report by the Edinburgh Poverty Commission and their findings will be published in the autumn.

20200518_EPC_Interim_Coronavirus_Report

 

Shapps: ‘We want to keep this momentum going’

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps gave the UK Government’s daily media briefing yesterday.

He described how the time during lockdown has been used to fix and upgrade road and rail infrastructure, including plans to help the economy bounce back.

Good afternoon and welcome to today’s Downing Street press conference. I’m pleased to be joined by Professor Jonathan Van-Tam.

Latest data

Let me start by updating you on the latest information from the Government’s COBR data file.

Through our monitoring and testing programme, as of today:

  • 2,219,281 tests for coronavirus have now been carried out in the UK, including a new record of 126,064 tests carried out yesterday
  • 233,151 people have tested positive, that’s an increase of 3,446 cases since yesterday
  • 11,041 people are in hospital with COVID-19, down 14% from a week ago, when 12,802 patients were hospitalised
  • and sadly, of those tested positive for coronavirus, 33,614 have now died – that’s an increase of 428 fatalities since yesterday.

This new figure includes deaths in all settings not just in hospitals.

Our deepest sympathies go out to the families and friends as the nation battles to defeat the disease.

Main content

Today I’m going to set out how – whilst the country has been at a virtual standstill – this downtime has been used to fix and upgrade the nation’s road and rail infrastructure, along with plans to help our economy bounce back.

But before I set out today’s transport announcements, let me briefly remind you of the government’s roadmap out of this crisis.

As you know, we have established a new COVID Alert System, with five levels – based primarily on the R value and the number of cases.

Throughout the lockdown, we have been at Level 4.

Thanks to the British people, we have brought the R down and we can now begin moving carefully to Level 3.

From this week we’re at Step 1, meaning that:

  • those who cannot work from home should now speak to their employer about going back to work
  • you can now spend time outdoors and exercise as much as you like
  • you can meet one person who’s not part of your household outside, provided you stay 2 metres apart

Step 2 – from June 1, at the earliest, as long as it’s safe, we aim to allow:

  • primary schools to reopen for some pupils, in smaller class sizes
  • non-essential retail to start to reopen
  • cultural and sporting events to take place behind closed doors, without crowds

And then Step 3 – no earlier than July 4, and again, only if the data says it’s safe, we aim to allow:

  • more businesses to open, including those offering personal care, those in the leisure sector, together with places of worship

We can control this virus if we stay alert.

But what does staying alert actually mean?

Staying alert, for the vast majority of people still means staying at home as much as possible, and working from home if you can.

But it also means:

  • limiting contact with other people
  • keeping your distance if you go out
  • washing your hands regularly
  • wearing a face covering in enclosed spaces where it’s difficult to be socially distant – for example on public transport
  • and if you or anyone in your household has symptoms, you all need to self-isolate

If everyone stays alert and follows the rules, we can control coronavirus by keeping the R down and reducing the number of infections.

This is how we can continue to save lives, and livelihoods, as we begin as a nation to recover from coronavirus.

Transport context

Today I want to update you on the measures we’re taking to speed up our economic recovery while keeping people safe.

For 2 months, we’ve remained in lockdown, travelling as little as possible, and in doing so, the whole country has protected the NHS and helped reduce the number of COVID infections.

But as we begin making tentative steps towards restarting our economy and people in some sectors who can’t work from home begin to return to their workplaces, it is clear that transport has a critical role to play.

Last Saturday, I explained why it’s our civic duty to avoid public transport, if at all possible.

Because, even when we have 100% of services up and running, there may only be socially-distanced space available for 1 in 10 passengers.

Therefore, in order to help reduce crowding, we set out a £2 billion programme to put cycling and walking at the heart of transport, with £250 million emergency spending already underway.

Over the past week, we have followed this up by publishing 3 pieces of detailed guidance.

First, for local authorities in England, explaining how they should prepare for significantly-increased numbers of cyclists and pedestrians.

Next, for the transport sector, to ensure they provide safer services for those travelling, and safer workplaces for their staff.

And third, and most importantly, for passengers.

We’re asking the public to help ensure that the transport system does not become significantly overwhelmed by returning commuters.

The guidance makes clear, that if you can’t walk or cycle but you do have access to a car, please use it, rather than travelling by bus, train or tram…..

Especially where that public transport is liable to be overcrowded.

And, for those people who absolutely need to use public transport…

It also explains how you can best protect yourself and those around you.

Transport upgrades during lockdown

In the coming weeks, as we carefully and cautiously restart sectors of our economy, and people begin to travel once again…

They should notice that, whilst the country has been in down-time …

…with the roads and railways quiet…

We’ve been busy…

Getting on with essential work….

Fixing the nation’s infrastructure…

So we can recover faster when the time comes.

This upgrade programme…

…the kind of work that – at any other time – would cause inevitable disruption and service delays, whilst costing the taxpayer more…

…has instead been carried out in previously unimaginable circumstances of a largely unused transport network.

For example, we completed 419 separate Network Rail projects over Easter, with a further 1,000 upgrades being carried out throughout the May bank holidays.

Meanwhile, Highways England has been busy accelerating maintenance projects on the nation’s roads.

Last week, for example, we opened the vital A14 upgrade 7 months ahead of schedule.

This is a route normally used by 85,000 drivers daily, which will dramatically improve access to the UK’s largest container port at Felixstowe and permanently boost the distribution of goods around the UK.

As Northern Powerhouse minister – I can report that – in the North, we’ve delivered £96 million of rail infrastructure improvements during April.

And throughout the country, we’ve accelerated maintenance projects on road and rail…

Whilst always sticking to PHE safety guidelines…..

So that altogether, Highways England has delivered over £200 million of upgrades, and Network Rail £550 million worth, during April alone.

I’d like to thank the army of transport and construction workers who have been grafting very hard throughout the lockdown.

Building future infrastructure

But to make sure that Britain is ready to bounce-back from coronavirus…

Today I can announce nearly £2 billion to upgrade our roads and railways, to put our transport infrastructure in the best possible shape and to get our economy growing once again.

This package includes £1.7 billion for local roads – making journeys smoother and safer for drivers, hauliers, cyclists, motorcyclists, pedestrians and others…

By filling millions of dangerous potholes, we will make our roads safer – and encourage more people to cycle, or even take part in the upcoming e-scooter trials…

Helping more people play a part in relieving pressure on public transport.

This investment will also help fix damage caused by winter flooding, repair roads and bridges, and fund numerous road improvement schemes.

As more people become mobile again, we’ll be building a network of rapid charging stations for electric cars…

Including a big expansion of rapid-charging facilities at motorway service stations…

Helping the country to lock-in the dramatic air-quality improvements we’ve experienced during the coronavirus lockdown.

A better future

Amid all the sad news and tragedy of loved ones we’ve lost, we’ve somehow managed to do things in weeks that would normally take years…

Building new hospitals…

Moving public services online…

Making instant reforms and fast-tracking new laws…

Extraordinary changes in the way that employers and employees work…

Effectively taking large swathes of the economy online almost overnight…

Now we want to keep this momentum going.

If building a new hospital takes 2 weeks, why should building a new road still take as long as 20 years?

If GP surgeries can quickly move online, why are most rail passengers still travelling on cardboard tickets?

We must exploit our newfound capacity to respond at pace and apply it to rapidly improving our infrastructure.

And we must examine why it is that bureaucratic bindweed makes British infrastructure some of the costliest and slowest in Europe to build.

Because whilst many will continue to work from home even after this immediate crisis…

…both the long-term transport trend and the pressing need to level-up communities across the country, dictate that infrastructure will be even more important in stimulating our recovery and supporting new jobs.

So by combining fast home-internet access, with vastly upgraded transport connections, we can help revive many of our small and medium-sized towns which over decades have been left behind.

Closing remarks

This has been a devastating start to the year, not just for Britain, but for the world.

And we are only at Phase 1 of the recovery plan.

But we all know that it is our reaction to adversity that will ultimately define how we recover.

We must harness our approach to tackling the pandemic….

And apply it to rebuilding our own infrastructure.

With the same swift action, innovation, and collective determination that has characterised the past few months…..

And in doing so, we can emerge stronger.