economic recovery – The NEN – North Edinburgh News

Education: Going further and higher

How collaboration between colleges and universities can transform lives and places

A new report calling for greater collaboration between colleges and universities has set out recommendations for governments and sector leaders to support regional priorities and deliver UK-wide economic recovery.

The Civic University Network, the Independent Commission on the College of the Future and Sheffield Hallam University have published Going Further and Higher: How collaboration between colleges and universities can transform lives and places. With case studies and analysis from across the four nations of the UK, the joint report is a call to arms for the two sectors to work together.

The report argues that further and higher education must no longer be pitted against each other – both nationally and locally – if post-16 education and skills systems across the UK are to deliver on pressing societal challenges such as closing skills gaps, supporting economic recovery, and delivering on net-zero goals.

The report identifies how unequal investment and a lack of clarity on the role that universities and colleges play has led to years of unnecessary tension.

It warns that post-16 education and skills systems can suffer from being too confusing and difficult to navigate for both students and employers and that competition between institutions exacerbates this.

It calls on colleges, universities and governments to commit to creating joined-up education and skills systems with a focus on shared responsibility for the sectors to deliver for people, employers and their places.

Amongst a number of key recommendations, the report calls on governments across the UK to commit to a more balanced investment and to define the distinct but complementary roles of colleges and universities through a new 10-year strategy.

Following extensive consultation and input from education leaders and policymakers from the four nations, the report provides a blueprint for more collaboration between institutions to support people, employers and communities. The recommendations apply to varying degrees across the four nations, with many of them inspired by existing practice and policy.

Recommendations for sector leaders, which focus on creating strong local networks:

Agree the institutions who are involved in the network and embrace the local geography and specialisms that already exist.
Develop a cohesive education and skills offer for local people, employers and communities built around lifelong learning, ensuring inefficient duplication and competition is reduced.
Move beyond personal relationships and agree how the whole institution is involved in collaboration, with clear roles and shared responsibility for partnership.

Recommendations to governments across the four nations to build better education and skills systems:

Set an ambitious 10-year strategy to ensure lifelong learning for all and to deliver on national ambitions.
Balance investment in FE and HE to ensure the whole education and skills system is sustainably funded so that colleges and universities can work in the interests of their local people, employers and communities.
Equal maintenance support across loans and grants for HE and FE students, regardless of age, personal circumstances, or route into education.
Tackle the ‘messy middle’ by defining distinct but complementary roles for colleges and universities to avoid a turf war over who delivers various types of education and training.
Create a single funding and regulatory body for the entire post-16 education and skills system in each nation to deliver more aligned and complementary regulatory approaches that will ensure smoother learner journeys.

The report also provides a number of UK-wide case studies of best practice for policymakers, institutions and sector leaders to learn from.

Sir Ian Diamond, Chair of the Independent Commission on the College of the Future, said: “This report rightly highlights that universities and colleges are vital institutions offering transformational education and skills. If we are to face the long-term impacts of the pandemic and to drive a sustainable, inclusive economy, then it is clear they have to increasingly do this together.

“The report marks a moment when the two sectors can commit to delivering on a bold joint mission for supporting people, productivity and places. I know from my time in both sectors that many leaders are driving the change needed to bring this to life. Through the work of the Commission we have drawn great learnings from practice and policy across the four nations. This report champions the best of what exists.”

Richard Calvert, Chair of the Civic University Network Partnership Group and Deputy Vice-Chancellor of Sheffield Hallam University, said: “This report provides an opportunity for both sectors to come together and recognise our potential to make an even greater impact if we work in partnership.

“As we have found through this report, there are excellent examples of collaboration across FE and HE – but too often those examples are the exception rather than the rule. We must do better in learning from each other, and taking action to deliver better outcomes for learners, employers and our local communities.

“It is also important for governments to recognise that there are policy levers which can support collaboration, rather than encourage competition. A joined-up further and higher education sector across the UK could be transformative in redressing regional inequalities, delivering lifelong learning and underpinning the levelling up agenda.”

Audrey Cumberford, Principal & CEO at Edinburgh College and member of the Independent Commission on the College of the Future, said: “As the Principal of Scotland’s capital college, I know the impact that is possible when education and skills leaders collaborate for the good for their region. This report sets out the untapped potential of what colleges and universities can do together.

“In Scotland we are increasingly operating in a coherent strategic policy environment, with strong recognition for the concept of a national tertiary ecosystem. Working more and more symbiotically has meant that we have established good practice in learner-focused articulation from college to university, which is rightly highlighted in this report.”

Mark Huddleston, Director at jheSOLUTIONS Limited and formerly NI Commissioner for Employment and Skills, said: “Colleges and universities in Northern Ireland are integral partners for many businesses and their partnership only makes this more powerful.

“A vital feature of the future for both FE and HE systems is playing their part in supporting people and businesses with lifelong learning. This report brings to life how collaboration in delivering this must continue to come to the fore.”

Professor Ellen Hazelkorn, author of the review of the oversight of post-compulsory education in Wales and Commissioner and member of the Independent Commission on the College of the Future, said: “Building a more seamless post-secondary education system has to be the direction of travel, mirroring the shifts other countries are taking to address long-standing societal and economic challenges.

“Six years on from the review of the Welsh post-compulsory system, which I led, the Welsh government is moving ahead with mechanisms for a coordinated system of further and higher education.

“Today’s report recognises the progress being made in Wales, and across the UK, and identifies where the policy needs go further to ensure that the education and skills system keeps up what the world needs.”

David Hughes, Chief Executive of Association of Colleges, said: “The report rightly calls for us to do away with the historically narrow view of education pathways that have ingrained rigid ideas of what and who a college or a university is for. It’s led to unhelpful arguments about who gets a bigger slice of the pie when it comes to funding and finite resources.

The shifts in the world of work and the economy require a rethink about how people access learning at different stages throughout lives and at different levels. Collaboration, not competition between colleges and universities is key to this, to every citizen being able to be a lifelong learner.

“For too long the system has focused on one group of adults – those who have progressed into higher education – at the expense of another group – those who have not . That is not fair and does not deliver strong communities. The recommendations for government and for colleges and universities, if implemented, would be a giant step towards more people being able to improve their work and life chances.

“The UK Government’s Levelling Up White Paper, published last week, sets out the need for fundamental ‘systems change’ to level up left behind places, through a cross-government, cross-society effort. This report sets out the role colleges and universities can and must play at the heart of that effort, and ways in which local leaders can step up to work together in new ways, and policy change that will enable this too.”

Iestyn Davies, Chief Executive of ColegauCymru, said: “This publication sets out a clear challenge and expectation to all institutions and individuals that work in further and higher education and echoes the call in our manifesto, Further Success: Policy Recommendations for the next Welsh Government.

“While there are some great examples of collaboration between colleges and universities, there is still much that can be done to improve joint working and cooperation.

“In Wales, the proposed Commission for Tertiary Education and Research offers an opportunity to address this which is why it is vital to establish that body in in the right way.

“It is time that further and higher education moved forward together as equal partners. It is now for institutions to step up and outline how they will respond to the opportunities set out by the Welsh Government and contained within this report.”

Report highlights extensive economic benefits of tackling climate crisis across the UK

A new report has highlighted the extensive benefits to the UK economy if immediate action is taken by local authorities to address the climate crisis.

The research was led by the Centre for Sustainability, Equality and Climate Action at Queen’s University Belfast and the Place-Based Climate Action Network for UK100.

A key finding from the report is that investment in climate action at the local level would see over 800,000 green jobs created across the UK by 2030, rising to 1.38 million total jobs by 2050.

It also found that for every £1 invested in climate mitigation and protecting communities from the impacts of extreme weather events, a further £9 is saved.

It offers cross-sector insight into how investment in local climate action can lead to tangible emission reduction, but can also create good quality green jobs, economic opportunities, important social co-benefits and level up areas across the UK as we seek to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. It presents a clear evidence base that highlight not only is Net Zero transformation possible, but also that the costs of inaction are immense.

Importantly, it considers these benefits in the context of rebuilding after the COVID-19 pandemic and the impacts the public health emergency has had on local authorities, their finances, and local economies across the UK.

John Barry, Professor of Green Political Economy at Queen’s University and lead researcher on the report, said: “It is in the very difficult context of COVID-19 that local authorities must consider the meaningful, lasting and interrelated benefits of decarbonising across all sectors, confronting the climate crisis, and harnessing the economic opportunities of local climate action.

“Fortunately, this economic shift can unlock correspondingly significant social and economic benefits for our society.

“If done correctly, and in the time frame suggested by climate science, we can not only avoid the worst consequences of climate change but capitalise on the huge economic and other co-benefits of urgent transformative climate action at scale.

“Our report clearly shows that ‘building back better’ from the pandemic is to green and climate proof our societies and local economies.”

Among the strongest economic cases within the report for UK local authorities to invest in climate mitigation and adaptation is avoiding the rising costs of climate impacts.

The report highlights the estimated annual cost of floods in the UK has reached £340 million, and is expected to rise to £428 million if global temperatures rise by 2°C, reaching £619 million if post-industrial warming reaches 4°C.

Seán Fearon, co-author of the report and researcher at Queen’s, added: “A primary aim of this report was an attempt to change the perception of climate action among local authorities as a ‘cost’ or as an unaffordable ‘burden’.

“In fact, tackling the climate crisis through our councils can be the main vehicle for meaningful and positive change in our communities, creating a healthier and more inclusive society, and more democratic local economies which prioritise decent jobs and environmental wellbeing.”

Professor Ian Greer, President and Vice-Chancellor of Queen’s, concluded: “Queen’s is a world leader in research, and we know that by enabling our talent to develop solutions we can have a very real impact in creating a sustainable future for all.

“That’s why we’ve recently made a multi-million-pound investment in a new sustainability action plan to help play our part in tackling the global climate emergency.”

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New Centre for Cities high streets recovery data published

Centre for Cities has published the latest update to its High Streets Recovery Tracker, covering September 2021. We have data for the 63 largest cities and towns in the UK.

The tracker can be found here.

Here are some embargoed topline trends from this month’s update:

Changes in footfall in September

Overall footfall continued to rise in the centres of the 63 largest cities and towns in the UK in September, the average rise was 8 percentage points.
The biggest increases in footfall were seen in Sheffield, Nottingham and Chatham.
However, ten large city and town centres recorded falls in footfall. The three places recording the largest drops in footfall were seaside resorts: Blackpool, Bournemouth and Southend.
Overall weekday footfall – an indicator of workers back in the office – rose from 60% of pre-pandemic levels at the end of August to 67% by the end of September – a 7 percentage point increase.

Cities with the largest increase in footfall in September
Rank	City	Change in footfall (percentage point)	Overall footfall level as of the last week of September (percentage of pre-pandemic average)
1	Sheffield	33	89
2	Nottingham	32	88
3	Chatham	26	101
4	Huddersfield	20	86
5	Bristol	20	81

Cities with the decrease in footfall in September
Rank	City	Change in footfall (percentage point)	Overall footfall level as of the last week of September (percentage of pre-pandemic average)
1	Blackpool	-37	123
2	Bournemouth	-29	94
3	Southend	-26	97
4	Reading	-23	72
5	Edinburgh	-14	80

Footfall as of the end of September

Overall, footfall had returned to pre-pandemic levels in six of the 63 large cities and town centres studied by the end of September: Blackpool, Swansea, Burnley, Chatham, Sunderland and Dundee.
Overall footfall remains lowest in London, at 49% of pre-pandemic levels it is now the only large city or town in the country where city centre footfall is not yet at half of pre-Covid levels. It’s weekday footfall – an indicator of workers back in the office – also remains the lowest in the UK, at 44% of pre-pandemic levels.
On average, weekday footfall at the end of September was 67% of pre-pandemic levels, with two places – Burnley and Chatham – back to pre-pandemic weekday footfall levels.

Cities with the highest overall footfall as of the end of September
Rank	City	Overall footfall level as of the last week of September (percentage of pre-pandemic average)
1	Blackpool	123
2	Swansea	104
3	Burnley	104
4	Chatham	101
5	Sunderland	100

Cities with the lowest overall footfall as of the end of September
Rank	City	Overall footfall level as of the last week of September (percentage of pre-pandemic average)
1	London	49
2	Milton Keynes	66
3	Oxford	67
4	Luton	68
5	Slough	69

A Fairer Future?

Recovery strategy to help those hardest hit by Covid

People who have suffered the most as a result of the pandemic will be at the heart of Scotland’s Covid recovery strategy, the Scottish Government says.

For a fairer future sets out the next steps in Scotland’s recovery from the pandemic, recognising that while the pandemic has affected every area of life in Scotland, those who were already struggling have been hardest hit by its effects.

The strategy aims to address systemic inequalities made worse by Covid, improve people’s wellbeing, and remobilise public services to be more focused on people’s needs, building on lessons learned during the pandemic.

Actions to achieve this will include upskilling and retraining opportunities for workers impacted by the pandemic and the transition to net zero, help for low income families most at risk of poverty, and locally-based mental health and wellbeing support for children and young people.

While the strategy is focused over the next 18 months, it includes a series of actions over the course of this Parliament to deliver substantial improvements in child poverty, make significant progress towards net zero, and secure an economic recovery that is fair and green.

Deputy First Minister and Covid Recovery Secretary John Swinney said: “The impacts of this pandemic have not been felt evenly with the most disadvantaged suffering disproportionately from the virus, and the social and economic effects of lockdown restrictions.

“For that reason, our recovery must go further than how life was before Covid. This strategy sets out how we will do that, working with local government, the third sector, and businesses large and small.

“It is the product of months of engagement with a variety of individuals and organisations representing sectors across the country, including the Citizen’s Assembly and the Social Renewal Advisory Board.

“The experience of the past 18 months has shown us what can be achieved when we look past traditional barriers to get the right service or support to people when they need it.

“By working together with the same energy, imagination, and urgency as we approached the pandemic, we can drive a recovery that delivers more for all of Scotland.”

COSLA President Councillor Alison Evison said: “I welcome the publication of this strategy and its vision, which has many parallels with the COSLA Blueprint.

“Covid-19 has had an immeasurable impact on communities across Scotland and although we continue to respond to the many challenges it presents, we must also take the necessary action to address inequalities in our society that have only worsened as a result of the pandemic.

“Local Government will be at the heart of recovery, just as we were in response to the pandemic. Recovery is a shared endeavour that requires us all to work together to address the areas of greatest harm resulting from the pandemic, and deliver an inclusive and green recovery for all of Scotland.

“We look forward to working with the Scottish Government to deliver on a collaborative approach to recovery that is at all times rooted in the needs of the people that we serve.”

Peter Kelly, Director of the Poverty Alliance, said: “The levels of poverty and inequality in Scotland made the impact of the pandemic so much worse than it might otherwise have been. Insecure and undervalued employment, social security benefits that were inadequate and ingrained inequality all meant that some communities bore the brunt of Covid.

“As we look towards the end of the pandemic, it is right that the Scottish Government prioritises a recovery that addresses these underlying inequalities. Focusing on the creation of a wellbeing economy, tackling poverty and investment in social security, housing and decent public services is to be welcomed. Delivering on these priorities and retaining this focus on addressing inequalities must drive our recovery to Covid.”

Louise Macdonald OBE, National Director of the Institute of Directors Scotland said: “A strong, sustainable wellbeing economy and a fair, equal society are interdependent. We welcome the clarity in this strategy that a thriving economy underpins a successful recovery, especially in making the difference for those greatest affected by poverty and inequality.

“Leaders from business and cross-sector organisations in communities in every part of Scotland have played a vital part in the response to the pandemic in a myriad of ways and it is that spirit of collaboration, innovation and purpose – through collective effort and shared vision – which will deliver this ambitions of this strategy.”

Andrew McRae, Policy Chair of the Federation of Small Businesses Scotland said: “Scotland’s recovery from the Covid crisis won’t be possible without economic recovery.

“Smaller businesses have an impressive track record of creating jobs and healing communities after economic shocks – so they must be at the heart of implementing this welcome recovery plan.

“We’re looking forward to working with the Scottish Government to ensure delivery of these plans is designed with small and new start businesses, as well as the self-employed, front and centre.”

Covid Recovery Strategy: For a fairer future – gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

Centre for Cities: Recovery gathers pace as UK emerges from Covid-19 pandemic restrictions

Centre for Cities has published the latest data on its High Streets Recovery Tracker, up to the end of August.

The data suggests that footfall in all of the UK’s largest cities and towns is now recovering as the UK emerges from pandemic restrictions.

Some key findings from the latest data:

By the end of August, average footfall in the centre of the UK’s largest cities and towns reached 64% of pre-Covid levels – up from 53% at the end of July.
Footfall was highest in seaside resorts and other tourist destinations. It exceeded pre-Covid levels in Blackpool, Bournemouth and Southend and came close in Brighton, York and Edinburgh.
Reading saw a 41 percentage point increase in footfall between the end of July and the end of August – the biggest increase in the country. This is likely to do be due to Reading Festival.
The increase in footfall that places saw in August was driven by evening and weekend leisure visitors rather than workers. Worker footfall remained low throughout the summer
Overall footfall in central London and the centres of other large cities also remained low throughout the summer – both compared to other cities and compared to pre-pandemic. In central London overall footfall at the end of August was just 43% of pre-pandemic levels. On the weekend it was higher, at 67%, but still trailing smaller cities.

Where did city centre footfall increase the most in August?
Increased the most	Increased the least
Rank	City	August footfall increase (percentage point)	Last week of August footfall level (% of pre-Covid)	Rank	City	August footfall increase	Last week of August footfall level (% of pre-Covid)
1	Reading	41	95	1	Mansfield	1	77
2	Blackpool	40	160	2	Portsmouth	2	68
3	Southend	30	123	3	Sheffield	3	57
4	Edinburgh	27	94	4	Northampton	3	64
5	Bournemouth	24	123	5	Slough	3	62

You can explore the all the data for the 63 largest cities and towns on our interactive tracker.

Centre for Cities publishes footfall and spending data on a monthly basis. The next release will be published in mid-October and cover the full month of September.

New fair work criteria announced

Prioritising secure and flexible employment

Workers are to benefit from more secure, flexible and family friendly employment through extended Fair Work conditions.

The Fair Work First approach is focused on driving high quality and fair work across the labour market by applying relevant criteria to public sector grants and procurements.

New criteria will come into effect from October 2021 which will encourage employers to explicitly promote flexible and family friendly practices, alongside their opposition to fire and rehire processes and their support for other fair work priorities.

This offers workers job security as well as flexible work that can benefit both workers and their employer. This approach is central to Scotland’s economic recovery from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Fair Work Minister Richard Lochhead said: “Everyone should have the opportunity to access secure and stable employment that pays a proper wage while affording staff the flexibility to balance their work and personal life.

“Despite employment law being reserved to the UK Government, we are doing all we can to work in partnership with unions, workers and employers across all sectors of the economy to build fairer and more inclusive workplaces.

“Fair work is at the heart of our economic recovery. That is why we are extending the fair work criteria to explicitly promote flexible and family friendly working alongside a clear opposition to fire and rehire practice, and doing so within 100 days of this Government.”

Latest Centre for Cities’ data shows the high street’s recovery may be stuttering

Visitor footfall to city and town centres across the UK drops in June after initial surge– with tourist hubs worse hit
Weekend visitors to Blackpool and Bournemouth almost halve in June
Big city centres continue to struggle with London seeing the weakest recovery of all centres

New data from Centre for Cities’ High Streets Recovery Tracker shows that the recovery of high streets stuttered in June as footfall fell back across the UK – raising concerns about the UK economy’s bounce-back from Covid restrictions.

Seaside and tourist destinations saw the sharpest drops in visitor numbers between the end of May and end of June, with visitors to central Blackpool and Bournemouth falling by by almost half.

Meanwhile, weekend visitors to other tourist destinations such as Brighton, York and Edinburgh also fell steeply.

Overall weekly footfall numbers fell by the end of June in 62 of the 63 city and town centres studied. On average, overall footfall in large city and town centres fell by seven percentage points.

City or large town(selected seaside and tourist destinations)	Weekend footfall Fall in footfall from last weekend of May to last weekend of June (percentage point)	Weekly footfallOverall fall in footfall from end of May to end of June (percentage point)
Blackpool	-45	-18
Bournemouth	-45	-15
Brighton	-39	-16
Southend	-36	-12
York	-28	-14
Portsmouth	-25	-12
Oxford	-23	-10

Pubs, bars and restaurants are also likely to have taken an economic hit as night-time visitors to city and town centres fell by six percentage points between the last weekend of May and last weekend of June.

Despite the fall, small and medium city and town centres continue to have seen the strongest recovery overall since restrictions were lifted, while bigger cities continue to struggle.

Southend, Blackpool and Basildon have come back strongest, with footfall being more than 70 per cent of February 2020 levels but London and other large city centres lag a long way behind – footfall in the centre of the capital was at just under a third of February 2020 levels.

Rank	City or large town	Overall footfall recovery in last week of June (February 2020 = 100)
Top 10
1	Southend	81
2	Blackpool	77
3	Basildon	72
4	Chatham	72
5	Burnley	72
6	Aldershot	71
7	Mansfield	69
8	Gloucester	68
9	Wigan	68
10	Barnsley	67
Bottom 10
54	Milton Keynes	50
55	Liverpool	50
56	Nottingham	49
57	Aberdeen	48
58	Cardiff	46
59	Leeds	46
60	Glasgow	43
61	Manchester	41
62	Birmingham	41
63	London	33

Centre for Cities’ Chief Executive Andrew Carter said: “Much discussion in the lead up to restrictions being lifted was about the amount of pent up demand that lockdowns had created, and the likely splurge in spending as a result. But while there was an initial jump, the data suggests this may have faltered.

“The weather and growing Covid-19 cases may be reasons for this, but with the end of the furlough scheme is in sight, high street businesses and workers will be hoping that the removal of restrictions on 19^th July will help to sustain the high street’s recovery and bring more people back to the centre of our cities.”

Scottish businesses report first shoots of economic recovery

For the first time in over a year, businesses in Scotland can see the first shoots of recovery as COVID-19 restrictions begin to lift, according to a leading quarterly survey led by the Scottish Chambers of Commerce (SCC).

The SCC’s Quarterly Economic Indicator (QEI) for the second quarter of 2021 indicates more positive growth across all sectors surveyed, albeit, caution is still the watchword for many businesses.

Key Findings:

• Pent up demand unleashed: All sectors have reported substantial rises in confidence and domestic sales, owing to the easing of general and domestic travel lockdown restrictions. Most results are positive for the first time in over a year, albeit from historically low bases.
• Caution looking ahead: All sectors have projected positive expectations for Q3, on balance, likely boosted by the expected further easing of lockdown restrictions. While firms are optimistic about sales revenue, they are more cautious around investment and staff levels with most firms envisaging no change to these in Q2.
• Faltering export sales: Covid-19 disruption and Brexit fallout has resulted in trading difficulties for businesses in services, manufacturing and retail as evidenced by falls in export sales and orders across these sectors.
• Inflation pressures: All sectors have recorded increases in concern over inflation, which may escalate as more consumers spend savings accumulated over the last 16 months and create uncertainty for business in terms of their costs and prices.
• Flat labour market: Most sectors saw a slight increase in employment, apart from retail, which saw no change over the quarter. Most firms, across all sectors, expect little change in Q3 which could result in sluggish jobs growth, with further challenges expected as the furlough scheme is withdrawn.

Tim Allan, President of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce said: “The success of the vaccine rollout has enabled the easing of restrictions and the gradual reopening of the economy, unleashing pent-up demand in the economy. This has allowed some sectors to rebound more quickly than others, however, the route to economic recovery will be a marathon, not a sprint.

“It’s clear that concerns remain around the ongoing impact of Covid-19 as businesses grapple with huge uncertainties over what the economy will look like post-pandemic. Towns and city centres face new challenges as more people work from home and more flexibly, impacting on footfall and changes to consumer behaviour.

“The needs of employers and employees alike need to be finely balanced as we shape the recovery of our city centres which will impact on a wide range of sectors and supply chains.

“Equally, sectors such as tourism and international travel, which continue to operate with severe restrictions, are having to adjust to increased domestic demand, a simultaneous fall in international travel and a tightening supply of skilled labour. The sector needs continued financial support and greater clarity on when confusing and burdensome travel regulations will end, allowing greater numbers of international visitors to return.

“As we approach the end of restrictions businesses are increasingly turning their attention towards how to achieve long term growth and renew Scotland’s economy.

“We have recorded the first shoots of growth returning to our economy, and it is essential now that both the Scottish and UK Government’s do all that they can to stimulate demand and boost confidence in the coming months.

“Priority must be given to continuing the provision of targeted financial support where it is needed most and looking ahead, both Governments must create the right environment for businesses to get back on their feet, create jobs and trade successfully again.”

Commenting on the results, Mairi Spowage, Director at the University of Strathclyde’s Fraser of Allander Institute, said: “In April, we saw growth in the Scottish economy of 2.0%.

“This takes us above the previous post-pandemic peak in October. However, the economy still remains 3.7% below the pre-pandemic peak.

“Despite the optimism in the economy, there are risks to recovery which could provide headwinds to growth. The dislocation in global trade was significant due to the pandemic.

“However, we also know that the end of the EU Transition Period has caused significant issues for manufacturers and others trying to rebuild these supply chains since the start of this year. This chimes with today’s survey results, which show significant negative impacts on exports.

“Recent announcements of the delay to the restrictions roadmap will lead to calls from some sectors that there should much more extensive business support to get them through to a position where they can properly operate. As well-meaning as initiatives like a new Council for Economic Transformation may be, practical policy measures to help these businesses survive through the winter are likely to be needed.”

Don’t pull the plug on economic recovery by cutting support too soon, warns TUC

New TUC analysis shows employment in hard-hit sectors is struggling to recover from the pandemic
Government should delay hiking up business contributions while Covid restrictions are in place – and extend furlough for as long as necessary
Many employers are using furlough flexibly to support a gradual return to business as usual, says TUC

The TUC has warned ministers not to “pull the plug” on the UK’s economic recovery by cutting off support for businesses and workers too soon.

The warning comes as new TUC analysis reveals that employment in hard-hit sectors is struggling to recover from the pandemic.

The analysis shows that just 1 in 8 (110,000) of the 790,000 jobs lost across manufacturing, retail, hospitality and the arts during Covid have been recovered.

By contrast, nearly all the jobs lost in business services and administration – which saw a 220,000 fall in employment – have been recovered.

The union body says ministers must provide ongoing, targeted support for at-risk industries and halt plans to increase furlough contributions for employers while Covid restrictions remain in place.

The analysis also reveals that 6 in 10 workers currently on furlough are working in manufacturing, retail, hospitality and the arts – sectors hit hard by the continuing restrictions.

The TUC fears that if the job retention scheme is ended too abruptly tens of thousands of additional jobs could be lost from these industries.

TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “Furlough has played a vital role in protecting jobs and keeping businesses running during this pandemic.

“Ministers must not pull the plug on our recovery by cutting off support too soon.

“The government should hold off hiking up employer contributions until all restrictions have been lifted.

“And we need a cast-iron commitment from the chancellor that he will extend furlough for as long as is needed, rather than ending it abruptly in three months’ time.

“Working families need this certainty now – not a rollercoaster approach to protecting livelihoods.”

The TUC highlighted that workers can only be furloughed if their employers decides to use the scheme, meaning that the scheme is well-targeted only to those businesses that need it.

They also note that around two-fifths of furloughed staff (41.6%) are now only furloughed for part of the working week and are working for the rest of it, enabling businesses to use furlough to manage their gradual return to full operations.

A copy of the analysis can be found here:

https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/2021-06/Jobs%20and%20recover…

Vaccine boost for the high street as consumer spending increases – but many big cities lag behind

Vaccine boost for the high street as consumer spending increases across the country – but many big cities continue to lag behind

Consumer spending highest in North and Midlands after restrictions eased last month
But shops, restaurants and pubs in London and other big cities continue to struggle
Government and newly elected metro mayors need a plan to bring visitors back to city centres

April’s lifting of lockdown restrictions provided a much-needed boost to many high streets as spending surged to pre-pandemic levels in more than half of Britain’s cities and large towns – but cities are continuing to struggle.

New data from Centre for Cities’ High Street Recovery Tracker suggests that spending in Britain’s large towns and smaller cities are recovering faster than in its largest urban centres. Northern England and the Midlands is also so far recovering faster than elsewhere – of the 35 places studied where spending has returned to pre-pandemic levels, 20 are in the North and Midlands.

So far, high street spending has recovered the most in Huddersfield, Basildon and Blackburn, while London, Aldershot, Oxford and Birmongham have seen the weakest recoveries in England so far.

Although spending in Scottish cities is the lowest in the UK in April, retail and hospitality opened on a later date than in England.

Cities where spending levels are highest
Rank	City	April 2021 spending (% of pre-lockdown)	Difference to week before reopening (percentage points)	Difference to summer 2020 reopening (percentage points)
1	Huddersfield	119%	48	19
2	Basildon	117%	65	32
3	Blackburn	117%	54	17
4	Birkenhead	117%	80	12
5	Mansfield	117%	77	29

Cities where spending levels are lowest
Rank	City	April 2021 spending (% of pre-lockdown levels)	Difference to week before reopening (percentage points)	Difference to summer 2020 reopening (percentage points)
54	Newcastle	72%	61	32
55	Birmingham	65%	56	28
56	Oxford	62%	45	29
57	Aldershot	56%	15	2
58	London	53%	34	26
59	Dundee	34%	-1	-4
60	Aberdeen	24%	-1	0
61	Glasgow	18%	2	-12
62	Edinburgh	12%	2	4

While high street spending in many larger cities remains below pre-lockdown levels, it is now significantly higher than it was this time last year – suggesting that consumer confidence is returning as more and more people are vaccinated and the pandemic ends.

Despite these positive signs, the Government and England’s newly elected metro mayors must set out plans to encourage people to return to the centres of our largest cities. Without the return of visitors, tourists and office workers thousands of jobs in shops, restaurants, pubs and other city centre services remain under threat.

Centre for Cities’ Chief Executive Andrew Carter said: “We can already see that the vaccination programme and lifting of lockdown is helping businesses get back on their feet. Many cities and towns, particularly those in Northern England and the Midlands, have seen a boom in consumer spending in the past month.

“It’s not all good news, the centres of our biggest cities such as London, Birmingham and Manchester remain quiet as people there continue to work from home. If this doesn’t change in the next few months I’d expect to see more people working in retail and hospitality in our biggest city centres lose their jobs. The Government must work with the newly-elected metro mayors to stop this happening.”