Campaigners respond to annual Scottish child poverty reports
Child poverty campaigners respond to latest child progress reports from Scottish Government and independent Poverty and Inequality Commission.
One in four children still living in poverty, against 2030 target of less than one in ten.
“Reports are crystal clear that progress has stalled” say campaigners.
John Dickie, Director of the Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG) in Scotland, has responded to the publication of the Scottish Government’s sixth Annual Tackling Child Poverty Progress Report and the Poverty and Inequality Commission independent scrutiny report.
The annual report is a statutory requirement under the 2017 Child Poverty (Scotland) Act and sets out the progress made towards meeting legally binding child poverty targets. The Act requires Scottish Ministers to consult the Commission in preparing its report.
Mr Dickie said; “We have seen very real action on child poverty in Scotland, not least the roll out of the Scottish child payment, but today’s reports are crystal clear that progress has stalled and that the policies in place are not enough to meet statutory targets. If child poverty really is the First Minister’s number one priority, then investment decisions need to back that up.”
Responding to the Cabinet Secretary’s statement to Parliament yesterday in which she said it had “not been possible to invest in all of the actions the government would have wished“, Mr Dickie said: “The failure of the 2024/25 Scottish budget to fully fund the childcare, employment and housing actions in the government’s own plan must never be repeated. The Scottish government’s child poverty delivery plan needs to be turbocharged, not underfunded.
“All political parties need to act at every level of government to deliver the economic, tax and spending plans that will ensure every family has the resources needed to protect their children from poverty. Here in Scotland the first step needs to be an immediate real terms increase to the Scottish child payment, and a commitment to ensure it reaches £40 per week by the end of the Parliament.
“At UK level all parties must commit to scrapping the poverty producing two-child limit and to increasing child benefit by £20 per week.
“Our children deserve nothing less.”
The Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017 requires Scottish Ministers to ensure less than less than 10% of children are living in poverty by 2030.
The latest official statistics (for 2021 to 2023) show that 24% of children (250 000 children) were living in poverty in Scotland.
The Scottish Government is estimated to have invested almost £1.4 billion to benefit children in low income households in the last financial year.
The investment is detailed in an annual progress report which highlights key actions to tackle child poverty including:
Awarding almost £430 million to families through the Scottish Child Payment, supporting more than 329,000 children as of 31 March 2024
Widening eligibility for Best Start Foods, the benefit which helps low-income families access nutritious food, so thousands more children and pregnant women can benefit
Supporting around 4,400 children through continued work to develop a system of school age childcare and continuing to provide 1140 hours of funded childcare for all eligible children
Providing free bus travel to over 2.3 million people, with 727,000 children and young people registered as of March 2024
Delivering 6,045 affordable homes across Scotland, with two thirds for social rent, between April and December 2023 – helping an estimated 2,015 households with children into affordable housing
Ms Somerville said: “Eradicating child poverty is the First Minister’s top priority and the actions we are taking are making a difference. Modelling published in February estimates that our policies will keep 100,000 children out of relative poverty this year.
“Over the last year we have continued to provide immediate support to families through investment in the likes of our ‘game-changing’ Scottish Child Payment, and by mitigating the Benefit Cap as fully as possible within the scope of devolved powers.
“We have set out, through our Building a New Scotland series, how we would deliver differently in an independent Scotland. Only with the full economic and fiscal powers of an independent nation can we use all of the levers other governments have to tackle inequalities, and we will continue to make this case. However, this will not stop us from taking all the action we can towards our goal now.”
Following a further increase in the value from 1 April 2024, together the Scottish Government’s five family payments of Scottish Child Payment, Best Start Foods and the three Best Start Grant payments could now be worth over £10,000 by the time an eligible child turns six, and around £25,000 by the time they turn 16.
£16M funding to expand access to childcare services
First Minister John Swinney has announced £16 million for childcare services to help deliver his vision of a Scotland free from child poverty.
In a statement to Parliament, the First Minister set out the four priorities that will underpin the work of his government. He said eradicating child poverty would be his government’s single most important objective.
Over the next two years, the Scottish Government will provide additional funding to expand access to childcare services within six Early Adopter Community (EAC) projects.
The funding will allow expansion into to new communities, including in Fife and Shetland, and inform what childcare should look like for younger children. The investment will support the development of local childcare systems that are designed to meet families’ needs, with funding targeted at those who are most at risk of living in poverty.
Earlier yesterday, the First Minister visited a breakfast club at Capshard Primary School in Kirkcaldy to see the impact of innovative school age childcare services which contribute to the eradication of child poverty and grow the economy, by helping parents and carers access the childcare they need to find and sustain good jobs.
Speaking in parliament, the First Minister said: “In modern Scotland, it should not be a struggle to find fair work or to raise a family. So for me, and for my government, eradicating child poverty and boosting economic growth, go hand in hand.
“Over the next two years, we will invest £16 million to tackle poverty and help families, by expanding access to childcare services within six Early Adopter Community projects.
“This investment will support low income families to enter and sustain employment, with funding targeted at those who are most at risk of living in poverty.”
First Minister John Swinney is to set out the priorities that will underpin the work of his government today (Wednesday, 22 May), focused on a central mission to eradicate child poverty.
In a statement to Parliament, the First Minister is expected to commit the Scottish Government to eradicate child poverty and to work with business and industry to grow the economy, invest in net zero and deliver stronger public services.
The First Minister will also make clear the need for bold and collaborative action across the Parliament, focused on the priorities of people in Scotland.
Ahead of the statement, the First Minister will meet pupils at a new breakfast club in Kirkcaldy in Fife. There he will see the impact of innovative school-age childcare services in contributing to the eradication of child poverty and growing the economy – by helping parents and carers access vital childcare to help find and sustain good jobs.
The First Minister said: “Eradicating child poverty will be the single most important objective of my government – and work in other priority areas will support and drive that mission.
“I intend to build on our record of delivery. Since 2007, economic growth, per head, and productivity have been stronger in Scotland than the rest of the UK, Scotland’s core A&E units are the best performing in the UK, and measures such as our Scottish Child Payment are estimated to keep 100,000 children in Scotland out of relative poverty this year.
“I am acutely aware of the economic and fiscal realities that we face and I want to take forward measures that will help people and their families to get on in life: to enable the people of Scotland to live happier, healthier lives.
“One of the benefits of long service in politics is having witnessed the Scottish Parliament when it is functioning at its very best. That happens when parties work constructively together.
“My government will do everything in our power – working with Members from across parties – to make child poverty a thing of the past.”
controversial two-child limit on benefits a key driver, says CPAG
YESTERDAY’Sofficial poverty statistics show child poverty has reached a record high with an estimated 100,000 more children pulled into poverty last year.
The DWP’s annual Households Below Average Income shows 4.3 million children (30%) were in poverty in the year to April 2023. It shows:
100,000 more children were pulled into relative poverty (after housing costs). That means 4.3 million children (30% of all UK children) were in poverty – up from 3.6 million in 2010-11.
69% of poor children live in working families
46% of children in families with 3 or more children are in poverty, up from 36% in 2011/12.
Poor families have fallen deeper into poverty: 2.9 million children were in deep poverty (i.e. with a household income below 50% of after-housing-costs equivalised median income) 600,000 more than in 2010/11
36% of all children in poverty were in families with a youngest child aged under five
47% of children in Asian and British Asian families are in poverty, 51% of children in Black/ African/ Caribbean and Black British families, and 24% of children in white families
44% of children in lone parent families were in poverty
34% of children living in families where someone has a disability were in poverty
Alison Garnham, Chief Executive of Child Poverty Action Group and Vice-Chair of the End Child Poverty Coalition, said: “In a general election year, nothing should be more important to our political leaders than making things better for the country’s poorest kids.
“But child poverty has reached a record high, with 4.3million kids now facing cold homes and empty tummies.
“We know that change is possible but we need to see a commitment from all parties to scrap the two child limit and increase child benefits. Anything less would be a betrayal of Britain’s children.”
Liv Eren 20, who grew up in poverty, says: “As an 8-year-old I couldn’t go on the school trip, as a 12-year- old I was wearing last year’s school blazer and that feeling – that knock to your self-esteem – never really leaves you.
“People say growing up in hardship can motivate you, but what could I do aged 8 or 12?. It’s awful.”
Schools are seeing the effects of rising child poverty every day.
Tom Prestwich, Headteacher at Jubilee Primary School in Lambeth said: The levels of poverty we are seeing in school now and the numbers of children affected by it, are the worst I have seen.
“This can have a significant impact on our pupils’ ability to learn and on their overall wellbeing. Pupils who are coming to school hungry, pupils who are overtired because they are struggling to sleep in difficult home conditions, pupils who are cold or uncomfortable because of the clothes they have to wear are all at a disadvantage right from the start of their day.
“We do as much as we can to counteract this. We have breakfast clubs, give out fruit and bagels every day, give out old uniforms and support as much as we can with parents battling for improved housing but it does feel like the gap between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged families is widening.
“This is happening at a time when school budgets are ever more stretched and our capacity to help and support families is reduced as a result.”
Simon Kidwell, head teacher at Hartford Manor Primary School in Cheshire, and president of school leaders’ union NAHT, said: “At my school even working families are accessing local food banks and seeking support with uniform and school trip expenses.
“We hear from our members how schools are increasingly finding themselves having to step in and support pupils and families, with local authority budgets stretched to breaking point.”
In addition to the rise in relative child poverty (measured as living on less than 60% of today’s median income) the DWP’s figures show an increase in the number of children in absolute poverty (measured as living on less than 60% of what the median income was in 2010).
Since absolute poverty should always reduce over time as living standards generally rise, the increase is a clear warning that not only are more children being dragged below the relative poverty line, but living standards for children are falling over time, their hardship deepening.
Commenting on the publication of the latest official figures on UK poverty, which show that the number of people living below the poverty line in working households is 1.6 million higher than in 2010, TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said:“Hard work should pay for everyone. But millions of working families in this country are struggling to cover even the basics.
“In-work poverty has rocketed over the last 14 years.
“The Tories have presided over epidemic levels of insecure work, brutal cuts to social security and years of feeble wage growth.
“Working people deserve far better.”
Households Below Average Income statistics can be found here:
Latest Accredited Official Statistics and Official Statistics published
Covering the period until March 2023, the latest statistics show little recent change in poverty levels for children and pensioners. Poverty for working-age adults is slightly higher than in recent years, which could be driven by people becoming economically inactive as a result of the pandemic.
The four child poverty measures in the Child Poverty (Scotland) Act (relative and absolute poverty, combined low income and material deprivation, and persistent poverty) are broadly stable over the recent period. These measures are based on single-year figures which tend to fluctuate year on year, and the three-year averages provide a robust indication of trends.
While the poverty risk is much lower for children where someone in the household is in paid work compared to those in workless households, not all work pays enough to lift the household above the poverty line. Over two thirds of children in poverty live in a household with someone in paid work. This proportion has increased markedly over the past decade or so as more people move into employment.
Other key points are:
Working-age adults (21%) and pensioners (15%) are less likely to be in relative poverty after housing costs compared to children (24%).
Relative poverty has been broadly stable for all age groups. Adults under 25 are more likely to be in poverty than older adults.
Minority ethnic households are more likely to be in poverty compared to white British households. Muslim adults have higher rates of poverty compared to adults of Christian and those with no religion. Some of this difference may be explained by these households being younger.
The two full statistical publications are available here:
Poverty and Income Inequality in Scotland contains statistics on poverty, child poverty, poverty risks for various equality characteristics, household income and income inequality for Scotland. This report also includes statistics on household food security.
The data comes from the Department for Work and Pensions’ (DWP) Family Resources Survey, Households Below Average Income dataset. Comparable UK income and poverty figures are published on the same day by DWP.
Figures are presented as three-year averages of each estimate. Three-year estimates best identify trends over time. Data collected during the year between April 2020 and March 2021 are excluded from the most recent estimates as response rates were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, estimates covering this period are for two years rather than three.
The four child poverty measures in the Child Poverty (Scotland) Act are based on single-year figures. These are available in the reference tables and in the child poverty summary.
Persistent Poverty in Scotland presents estimates of the proportion of people in Scotland who live in persistent poverty. The data comes from the Understanding Society Survey, and the latest statistics cover the period from 2018 to 2022.
These poverty statistics are used by the Scottish Government and other organisations to monitor progress in tackling poverty and child poverty, and to analyse what drives poverty and what works for tackling poverty and income inequality.
Relative poverty: A person is in relative poverty if their current household income is less than 60% of the current UK median. Increases in the proportion of people living in relative poverty indicate that the gap between the poorest and middle income households is widening.
Absolute poverty: A person is in absolute poverty if their current household income is less than 60% of the UK median in 2010/11, adjusted for inflation. Increases in the proportion of people living in absolute poverty indicate that prices are rising faster than the incomes of the poorest households.
Combined low income and material deprivation identifies the number of children in families that cannot afford basic essential goods and services because of a low income (below 70 percent of the middle household income).
Persistent poverty identifies the number of people in relative poverty for three or more out of four years. People who live in poverty for several years may be affected by it through their lifetime.
Household income is adjusted for household size.
The poverty publications present poverty figures before and after housing costs. Before housing costs figures are a basic measure of household income from earnings and benefits. After housing costs figures subtract spending on rents, mortgage interest payments and other unavoidable housing costs from this basic income.
In Scotland, poverty statistics focus mainly on poverty after housing costs. The poverty estimates in the child poverty summary refer to relative poverty after housing costs.
Modelling shows vital impact of Scottish Government policies
First Minister Humzah Yousaf has welcomed analysis which estimates 100,000 children will be kept out of relative poverty in 2024-25 as a result of Scottish Government policies.
Updated modelling of the cumulative impact of policies such as the Scottish Child Payment indicates the relative child poverty rate will be 10 percentage points lower than it would otherwise have been.
Speaking after joining a Book Bug session at Drum Brae Library Hub in Edinburgh with the Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, Mr Yousaf highlighted estimates in the report of the impact the UK Government could have on child poverty, if it were to bring in selected welfare changes alongside the Scottish Government’s actions.
These show that removing the two-child limit and reinstating the family element in Universal Credit – worth £545 per family in 2017 – could lead to an estimated further 10,000 fewer children in Scotland living in poverty in 2024-25.
Meanwhile, introducing an Essentials Guarantee to ensure Universal Credit is always enough to meet people’s basic needs could lead to 30,000 fewer children experiencing poverty.
The First Minister said: “It is utterly unacceptable that, in 2024, children continue to live in poverty in Scotland. That is why we have very deliberately chosen to invest in our public services, and the social contract which binds the Scottish Government to the people we serve.
“From the introduction of the innovative and transformative Scottish Child Payment – described as ‘game-changing’ by frontline organisations and already improving the lives of so many children and families across Scotland in real and immediate ways – to investing £1 billion to tackle the poverty-related attainment gap, continuing delivery of the Whole Family Wellbeing programme, providing £50 million to develop and scale up holistic family support and investing around £1 billion every year in high quality early learning and childcare, ensuring Scotland delivers the most generous funded childcare offer in the UK.
“The economic modelling published today estimates that the actions we’re taking will mean the relative and absolute child poverty rates will be 10 and 7 percentage points lower than they would have otherwise been.
That’s 100,000 children kept out of relative poverty and 70,000 kept out of absolute poverty next year. These are the lives of children across Scotland, in every single community, being improved by the action we are taking.
“While we all know the challenging financial situation Scotland faces, the Scottish Budget continues to prioritise tackling and reducing child poverty. Against a backdrop of the UK Government’s two-child limit and continued austerity, we are taking real action to lift children out of poverty and improve their chances in life.
“We know that the UK Government could lift a further 40,000 children out of poverty in Scotland this year if they made key changes to Universal Credit. That includes introducing an Essential’s Guarantee and scrapping the two child limit.
“Every child in Scotland deserves a life free of poverty and I will continue to do everything in my power to make that a reality.”
Retail trade union Usdaw has a delegation of members, reps and officials attending the annual Scottish Labour Conference in Glasgow, Friday 16 to Sunday 18 February. The union is part of a composite on child poverty.
Tracy Gilbert, Usdaw Regional Secretary for Scotland says:“One in four children in Scotland are living in poverty, which is inextricably linked to in-work poverty. It is appalling that Scotland’s Children’s Commissioner has deemed the SNP Government to have ‘absolutely failed’ to deliver for young people.
“While we welcome the Scottish Child Payment, the rising cost of living means the payment is falling in value and more direct support is needed to meet child poverty targets. The lack of appropriate childcare, and the childcare costs families continue to face, lock children in poverty despite improvements in funded childcare in recent years.
“Research shows that families with children make up around half of the families experiencing in-work poverty across Scotland. So, tackling the issue of in-work poverty is critical to ensuring that every child has the best possible start in life and the opportunity to thrive.”
The composite motion to conference calls on Scottish Labour to:
· Prioritise the eradication of child poverty.
· Urgently work with trade unions and the Child Poverty Commission to bring forward a comprehensive plan to eradicate child poverty.
· Increase cash payments to families through mechanisms such as raising the minimum wage.
· Provide safe and affordable housing.
· Address the lack of appropriate, affordable and accessible childcare that families face to help break the cycle of child poverty.
· Introduce meaningful support to address the most urgent priorities facing working people as a result of the cost of living crisis.
A new report from Holyrood’s Social Justice and Social Security Committee calls on the Scottish Government to take steps to “supercharge” its efforts to tackle child poverty.
The Committee has been undertaking an inquiry into the issue, focusing on parental employment, which the Government sees as key to reducing the number of children living in poverty.
During the inquiry the Committee travelled to several places in Scotland to hear the views of parents. Not being able to access childcare from a child’s first birthday to when they start school, both during the school term and holidays, was the most common barrier to employment that they talked about with affordability and flexibility seen as critical.
Parents spoke of needing to find work that fitted in with school hours, while one contributor reflected that women could not develop in their careers until their children had reached high school age. In response, the Committee calls on the Government to accelerate its work on expanding the availability of childcare.
Public transport is a major theme in the report. Witnesses in urban and rural areas spoke about a range of issues including access and cost. The report asks the Government to consider how public transport services can be designed and better supported to provide affordable, frequent and direct services that support the type of trips more regularly made by parents.
The Committee’s report also encourages the Government to investigate how an integrated system of discounted travel offers for low-income working-age people could be provided. The Committee believes this would enable some families to access a wider range of employment opportunities by being able to travel further, more cost effectively.
Witnesses also identified an issue faced by parents who embark upon study to improve their career prospects. Student funding means that low-income parents at college or university would be ineligible for benefits such as Universal Credit. To help, the Committee calls for Scottish Child Payment eligibility to be extended.
Bob Doris MSP, speaking on behalf of the Social Justice and Social Security Committee, said: “In Best Start, Bright Futures, the Scottish Government said that parental employment is a key driver to meet the statutory targets to address child poverty. Our report looks at how the aims of that plan could come closer to being realised.
“The Scottish Government believes that without its actions to date, 28% of children would be living in poverty. Even so, the Government expects to narrowly miss its interim child poverty targets, with modelling predicting that 19% of children will be living in poverty this year. Therefore, we are calling for the Government to take decisive action now by clarifying its priorities and commitments and producing explicit delivery and spending plans to make sure progress is on track.
“We recognise the good progress the Scottish Government has made in reducing child poverty. We now want to see the Government supercharge its efforts so that the ambitions it has set can become reality.”
The team at Amazon in Dunfermline has delivered bundles of baby and toddler essentials to child poverty charity, Save the Children to distribute to vulnerable families across Scotland.
Save the Children Scotland works to give every child an equal chance; believing that all children have a right to a decent standard of living, to play and to learn. In partnership with Amazon, the charity was able to provide ‘Play Well’ packs to families which contain hints and tips to assist children’s play and learning at home.
In total, the team from Amazon in Dunfermline packed 200 boxes full of items including baby mats, bath bundles and sensory toys which they delivered to the charity for distribution to those who would benefit the most.
Speaking about the donation, Jamie Strain, General Manager at Amazon in Dunfermline, said: “The team at Save the Children has changed the lives of so many families across Scotland and I could not be prouder of the team’s efforts to support the charity and show our gratitude.
“We hope the toys deliver smiles to the children that receive them and that the baby products help out parents in need.”
Alasdair Brown, an employee from Amazon in Dunfermline who took part in the packing, added: “I am pleased that we can support Save the Children with our donation of packages.
“We had a great day assembling the packs and I’m delighted that parents across Scotland will be supported with baby and toddler essentials.”
Claire Telfer, Head of Scotland at Save the Children, added: “We want to extend a big thank you to the team at Amazon in Dunfermline for helping us provide families with necessary items to assist learning and play.
“At Save the Children, we work to lessen the impact of poverty on children’s learning and development in the early years, and support from organisations like Amazon is essential in helping us achieve our mission of giving every child in Scotland an equal chance.”
The donation to Save the Children was made as part of Amazon’s programme to support the communities around its operating locations across the UK.
Tackling child poverty is a stated priority of the Scottish Government (writes Fraser of Allander Institute’s EMMA CONGREVE). Yet recent data has displayed little progress towards eradicating poverty and Scottish Government modelling now shows, with its current set of policies, the interim 2023/24 statutory targets are likely to be missed following a ‘deterioration in the macroeconomic situation’. [i]
The Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017 set out Scotland’s ambition through a set of child poverty targets,. This article looks at the data to understand why the progress hoped for has not been realised.
Why has there been little progress to date in tackling child poverty?
The most recent data shows that child poverty trend looks fairly flat (chart 1). The most recent period covers 2019-20 to 2021-22, and showed the number of children in poverty actually rising slightly compared to the previous period, matched by an increase in the total number of children in Scotland. This left the headline 2019-22[1] rate at 24%, the same as 2018-19 to 2020-21.
Chart 1: Relative child poverty in Scotland
Despite the fact that Scotland is the only part of the UK to have child poverty targets, Scotland does not particularly appear to be outperforming rUK when it comes to reducing child poverty.
As chart 2 shows, whilst Scotland is towards the bottom of the pack when it comes to child poverty rates, other parts of the UK (the South East of England, Northern Ireland and the East of England) have had similar rates of progress over recent years. The data is quite volatile, but at the moment there does not appear to be evidence of Scotland forging a unique path.
Chart 2 – Child poverty rates across UK countries and regions
But what about the counter argument: in the absence of government policy, child poverty could have risen. Scottish Government analysis shows that they believe this would have indeed been the case?
However, the point still stands that there is nothing in the data so far that shows Scotland setting itself apart from elsewhere in the UK, perhaps reflecting the point that many of the policies that Scotland have in place exist in a not too dissimilar form in rUK – for example Free School Meals and an equivalent to Scotland’s Best Start Grant. And whilst these may be less generous, it is seems that they are not different enough to show up in the aggregate poverty data.
However, this should be about to change. The Scottish Child Payment started to be rolled out in 2021. The 2021-22 data collection was the first year that Scottish Child Payment claimants were picked up in the data but over the next few years we would expect it to make more of an impact as the number of claimants and the generosity of the benefit has ramped up.
Looking at our own modelled estimate, we can see this emerging trend if we look out to 2023-24 with Scotland starting to diverge from those countries/regions of the UK that it was has recently been tracking alongside (Chart 3).
Chart 3 – Modelled estimate of the effect of the Scottish Child Payment on relative poverty rates in Scotland vs the rest of the UK
One potential issue is that the levels of Scottish Child Payment picked up in the most recent data look like an underestimate compared to the figures on admin data.
There is always some disparity; it is widely known that the official surveys of income understate benefit receipt. However, the Scottish Child Payment figures look low, even once that known discrepancy has been taken into account.
This may improve as years progress, and people become more familiar with the Scottish Child Payment. However, it is a concern and will need to be monitored closely.
Beyond the Scottish Child Payment
Since its initial introduction, the Scottish Child Payment has increased in value to £25 per week, and it is now available for every child who meets the eligibility criteria. Many charities and stakeholder groups have recommended that the Scottish Government increases the Scottish Child Payment to £40, but this has so far been rejected.
The Scottish Child Payment is forecast by the Scottish Fiscal Commission to cost £405m in 2023/24. An increase to £40 would cost in the region of £250m more for an additional 2.5 percentage point reduction in poverty. The modelling suggests this would have been enough to meet the 2023/24 interim target, but still leave poverty levels some way distant from the 2030/31 target.
Clearly, some new ‘game-changing’ policies are required. Along with social security, the most obvious place to focus attention is on earnings from paid employment. Both the 2018 and the 2022 tackling child poverty delivery plans had actions relating to employability, but the Scottish Governments most optimistic assumptions were only able to predict a 2 percentage point reduction in poverty[iii].
The decisions people make around work depend on many factors, and the jobs available to them can limit options. Childcare, transport, and skills are just some of the potential intervention areas, and for them to start adding up to significant impact, investment at scale will be required. It is likely that some additional social security interventions will need to be on the cards as well if there is any chance the 2030-31 targets will be met.
The unfortunate fiscal reality and the need to prioritise better
The recent Medium Term Financial Statement reminded us that, even with the current set of policies, Scottish Government is facing a budget shortfall in the coming years. Yet, child tackling child poverty remains a clear stated objective and it is difficult to see how the targets can be met without more money being invested.
The statement set out the Scottish Government’s intention to “prioritise the programmes which have the greatest impact on delivery”. Our experience from years of scrutinising government policy development is that cost-effectiveness analysis is often absent, often due to lack of internal capacity, skills and oversight of appraisal processes[iv].
In the 2022-23 progress report[v] , the Scottish Government estimated that they had invested £3 billion on programmes targeting low income households, with £1.25 billion estimated to benefit children over the year. Prioritising this list in terms of its cost effectiveness would be a first step in working out what needs to stay, and what could justify being dropped and reinvested elsewhere.
Remember that a cost-effectiveness analysis is not just about the number of children directly lifted out of poverty as a result (although that is a good place to start). It is also about other objectives, such as reaching those in the deepest poverty and moving them close to the poverty line, or investing in policies that help contribute to other government priorities, such as tackling climate change.
Evaluation evidence is also lacking. Six years on from the first tackling child poverty delivery plan, we should be seeing the results of which policies have been in place over that time.
Robust evaluation which is able to isolate the impact of particular policies on child poverty is difficult to do, but without some evidence in this direction, objective prioritisation is a lot harder to do, if not impossible.
A child poverty policy evaluation framework[i] was launched in 2023 and the 2022-23 annual report stated that there will be a review of progress after 18 months. Whether or not this framework will deliver enough, and come soon enough to make a difference in time to meet the targets, remains in doubt in our minds.
[1] Analysis of Scottish poverty in Scotland is based on multiple years of aggregated data, with three years of data the norm. Due to issues with collecting data during the height of the pandemic, data for 2020-21 is not usable and for the three year periods that contain the 2020-21 year, only two years worth of data is included. This is not ideal, but is a sensible approach to deal with this exceptional circumstance.
[i]Scottish Government (2023) Child Poverty – monitoring and evaluation: policy evaluation framework available here
[ii]Scottish Government (2023) Tackling Child Poverty Progress Report 2022-23, available here
[iii]See p18 of JRF & Save the Children’s response to the 2022 to the Scottish Government’s second Tackling Child Poverty Delivery plan for further explanation, available here
[iv]Fraser of Allander Institute (2022) Improving Emissions Assessment of Scottish Government Spending Decisions and the Scottish Budget, available here. Although the report was ultimately about emissions appraisal, many of the findings relate to appraisal across all policy areas.
[v] Scottish Government (2023) Tackling Child Poverty Progress Report 2022-23, Annex B accessed here
