Centre for Social Justice – The NEN

Scotland has lost 350 pubs and bars since 2016 and 650 since 2010
“Unwanted shops” filling the void with nearly 1,900 more barbers, nail salons and other beauty outlets appearing since 2010
New inquiry launched into “repairing Britain’s broken high streets”

For every extra local tobacco and vape shop since 2016, ten pubs have disappeared, new research shows.

The last decade saw Scotland lose 350 pubs and bars, while the number of vape and tobacco shop rose by 35 to 210 in total, according to analysis of official figures by cross-party think tank the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ).

Analysis of business counts of registered businesses in Scotland showed a 10 per cent rise in the number of barbers, nail salons and other beauty outlets appearing since 2016 – rising to 85 per cent when compared to 2010.

Launching a new Broken High Streets inquiry, the CSJ warns that valued community assets like pubs are being replaced by a wave of “dodgy shops” that do not reflect real consumer demand.

Polling conducted by Ipsos found that almost seven in ten people (68 per cent) say there are too many vape shops on the high street, while 58 per cent say there are too many barber shops, and 50 per cent say there are too many nail bars.

Given the existence of three million estimated unregistered businesses, the true rise of “dodgy shops” is likely to be even higher than the official count. The Local Data Company, which carries out detailed surveys of all retail areas, found 3,573 specialist vape shops in the UK in 2023, 1,393 more than official estimates across the UK as a whole.

Publicans and shopkeepers are under renewed pressure from rate increases, years of high inflation, duty, and VAT. At the same time, legitimate businesses risk being pushed off the high street by businesses operating as fronts for money laundering, illegal working and organised crime.

One recent investigation found that 3,624 shops had illegal goods seized from them in 2024-25, with HMRC and Border Force seizing 1.2 billion illegal cigarettes in the same period.

In October last year, the National Crime Agency destroyed over £2.7 million of criminal tobacco, vapes and drugs being sold off the high street.

The illicit tobacco trade is estimated to cost taxpayers £1.8 billion, nine times the amount the UK government has invested in neighbourhood policing, worth the equivalent of recruiting over 26,000 new police officers to make our high streets safer.

Connor Naismith MP, Labour MP for Crewe and Nantwich, said: “Dodgy vape shops, mini-marts and fake barbers are a front for exploitation and organised crime, pushing people out of our high streets and making a mockery of the law.

“Stronger powers for trading standards to shut down these criminal enterprises are urgently needed and are vital for any successful policy aimed at renewing our high streets and town centres.”

Naismith made his remarks as the CSJ launches a call for evidence to “repair Britain’s broken high streets”, warning that social breakdown across town and city centres is undermining the pillars of community life.

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The think tank has also created an interactive tool called Oi! Mind Your Buainess! which lets people see which shops and businesses are thriving or declining in their community.

The CSJ warn that a toxic cocktail of organised crime, illegal trading, shoplifting and anti-social behaviour are compounding long-term economic challenges facing high-streets, and that local authorities are woefully underequipped to tackle the breakdown in law and order.

Tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/NGJ8zweDRq
— The Centre for Social Justice (@csjthinktank) March 15, 2026

Josh Nicholson, Head of Housing and Communities at the Centre for Social Justice, said: “Scotland’s high streets are changing and not for the better.

“The explosion of ‘dodgy shops’, shoplifting, and anti-social behaviour across town and city centres points to a breakdown in community life that must urgently be addressed.

“With national elections later this year, it is critical that political parties have a plan to clean up the social breakdown wrecking Scottish communities.”

Please respond to the CSJ’s call for evidence here.

Scotland spent almost a sixth – £1 billion – more on welfare than the funding provided by the UK government in 2024/25
Scotland has the highest proportion of children in long-term workless households in Great Britain with child poverty targets missed
Jobless couple with three children can receive combined benefits worth £45,500 a year in Glasgow, equivalent to a salary of £69,000
New plan ahead of Holyrood elections sets out reforms to save almost £1 billion a year and refocus support on work and mental health treatment

The Scottish Government has poured billions of pounds of taxpayer cash into the country’s welfare state “with abandon”, according to a new report.

The research, entitled Benefitting Scotland?, finds that nearly a decade after major welfare powers were devolved, Scotland is spending significantly more than the rest of the UK on a “smorgasbord” of conflicting benefits and entitlements.

There is “minimal” evidence that the system is succeeding even on its own terms, warns the Centre for Social Justice. Persistent child poverty is running at 23 per cent, more than double the Scottish government’s eight per cent target.

At the same time, Scotland has the highest proportion of children living in long-term workless households in Great Britain at 11.3 per cent, and its rate of economic inactivity has gone from below England’s before 2016 to persistently above it.

The £28 billion annual welfare budget – almost a quarter of which is administered by the Scottish government – has ballooned out of control.

Last year Scottish ministers spent above and beyond the “block grant adjustment” – a grant allocated by the UK government to match non-devolved benefit spending – by almost £1 billion.

The cross-party think tank argues that Scotland could save hundreds of millions of pounds while achieving better outcomes.

Restricting eligibility to disability benefits for those with less severe mental health conditions and frontloading the Scottish Child Payment would save at least £800 million for the Scottish government to re-invest in treating the root causes of mental illness and supporting families directly through Whole Family Wellbeing Funding.

The report also highlights the scale of work disincentives in the system.

A couple with three children living in Glasgow can receive almost £45,500 per year by combining benefits. To match that income from work alone would require a salary of roughly £69,000 before tax from a single earner.

Even when parents move into employment, they can lose up to 79p of every additional pound earned once benefit tapers, income tax, national insurance and pension contributions are combined.

They also risk losing access to the myriad supplements layered on by the Scottish government, including the Scottish Child Payment, several Best Start Grants, a Carer’s Allowance Supplement, new Winter Heating Payments, and a plethora of one-off grants.

Ben Gregg, Head of Welfare at the Centre for Social Justice, said: The Scottish government has missed its own child poverty targets, while pushing economic inactivity in Scotland from below to above England.

“The welfare system is over budget, overly complex, and failing on its own terms. With Holyrood elections this year, there is a real opportunity to create a much leaner, far more effective system, focused on changing lives and tackling the root causes of poverty.”

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