Risk of death from cancer falls by 12%

People in Scotland are less likely to die from cancer, with the risk falling by 12% over the past decade, according to new figures published today by Public Health Scotland (PHS). 

The new report, which provides the latest insights in cancer mortality in Scotland, highlights that there was a small increase in the number of deaths due to cancer, from 16,011 in 2015 to 16,352 in 2024. This is caused by Scotland’s by Scotland’s ageing population, and older people are at higher risk of cancer.  

It also shows that those who die from cancer are now older than in the past.  In 2024, 70% of all cancer deaths occurred in people aged 70 and over, up from 66% in 2015. The average age at death also increased between 2000 and 2024, rising from 71 to 74 years for males, and from 72 to 74 years for females.  

Lung, colorectal (bowel), prostate, and breast cancers together accounted for 46% of all cancer deaths. Lung cancer remained the leading cause, with 3,651 deaths in 2024, making up 22% of all cancer deaths. Most lung cancer deaths could be avoided by eliminating smoking. 

Professor David Morrison, Consultant in Public Health, Public Health Scotland, Scotland, said: “Cancer remains the most common cause of death in Scotland, but the risk has been falling over time.  

“Deaths from lung cancer have fallen by a quarter over the past 10 years, and oesophageal and bladder cancer deaths have also gone down.  We can see the huge benefits of fewer people smoking and more successful treatment of cancer in these latest figures.   

“Among women, the chances of dying from breast cancer have fallen by 11% over the last decade.  Breast screening picks up cancers at an earlier, more treatable stage and new treatment options have become available.   

“I would encourage anyone invited for cancer screening or offered HPV vaccination to take up the offers.”  

Reducing harm from tobacco by creating a smoke-free generation remains a priority for PHS, particularly given lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death in Scotland.  This, together with reducing harm from alcohol, drugs and unhealthy foods, is one of the key actions outlined in our ten-year strategy, also published today, which sets out how we will work to improve Scotland’s health outcomes.  

A second cancer-focussed report published by PHS today, the Place of Death from Cancer in Scotland report, examines the place of death for people who died from cancer between 2015 and 2024. 

Of the 49,474 cancer deaths in Scotland during 2015–2024, 39% occurred in NHS hospitals, 37% occurred at home or a private address and 15% occurred in hospices. 

The Cancer Mortality in Scotland Annual Update 2024 report can be read here:

Cancer mortality in Scotland – Annual update to 2024 – Cancer mortality – Publications – Public Health Scotland

The Place of Death From Cancer in Scotland 2015 – 2024 report can be read here:  

Place of Death from Cancer in Scotland – 2015-2024 – Place of death from cancer in Scotland – Publications – Public Health Scotland

Information on cancer screening available for free through the NHS in Scotland can be found at:  Introduction to screening in Scotland | NHS inform 

More information on identifying, treating and managing cancers can be found on NHS Inform: Cancer | NHS inform 

Last year, we published a joint blog by Consultants in Public Health Medicine, Professor David Morrison, Director of the Scottish Cancer Registry and Dr Fatim Lakha, exploring the seemingly paradoxical good news within Scotland’s rising cancer statistics – and what it means for our future health and care system. 

Find out more about PHS’s ten-year strategy: Strategic vision – Together we can: our 10-year strategy to 2035 – What we do and how we work – About us – Public Health Scotland

Risk of dying from cancer at lowest on record

11.1% reduction in mortality rates since 2013

New figures show the risk of dying from cancer for people living in Scotland is at the lowest on record.

Public health Scotland (PHS) statistics show from 2013 to 2022 the risk of dying from cancer in Scotland decreased by 11.1%, from 333.7 per 100,000 in 2013 to 296.8 per 100,000 in 2022. This is the lowest rate in the data published by PHS today that goes back to 1998. In 2022, there were 16,265 deaths from cancer  – 8,453 in males, 7,812 in females.

Due to an ageing population and the fact that more people are living with cancer, there has been an overall increase in the total number of cancer deaths since 2013, but a slight decrease from 2021 to 2022. In 2022, more than two-thirds (69%) of all cancer deaths were in people aged seventy and over.

Health Secretary Neil Gray said: “It is encouraging to see the risk of dying from cancer in Scotland is at a record low.

“This is down to the hard work of NHS staff, improved treatment options, and people reporting their symptoms at an earlier stage. We are determined to further improve cancer survival, reduce waiting times and provide excellent, equitably accessible care right across Scotland.

“We are taking action to improve the awareness and earlier diagnosis of cancers, including expanding our Rapid Cancer Diagnostic Services and our investment of more than £14 million towards cancer waiting times this year.

“Reducing health inequalities is a clear ambition for this government. Cutting smoking rates is key to tackling lung cancer incidence in areas of deprivation – our world-leading tobacco control measures are helping us in our goal of a Tobacco-Free Scotland by 2034.”

Cancer mortality in Scotland – Annual update to 2022