March sees sharp fall in Scottish business confidence

Bank of Scotland’s Business Barometer for March 2020 shows:

  • Overall confidence for firms in Scotland fell 22 points in the past month to -7%
  • Firms’ confidence in their own business prospects was -4%, compared with 14% in February
  • Research undertaken between 2nd and 16th March shows a sharper fall in confidence nationally during second week of the survey at -3%, among the lowest figures seen since the financial crisis

Business confidence in Scotland fell 22 points during March to -7%, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.

The research, taken between the 2nd and 16th March, showed that companies in the region had lower confidence in their business prospects at -4%. When taken alongside their views of the economy overall, this gives an overall confidence of -7%.

Across the UK, overall business confidence fell by 17 percentage points to 6% in March, the lowest level since October 2019.

However, the report showed that nationally, for the second week of the survey, a much sharper fall in overall confidence was recorded at -3%. It matches the lowest dip seen by the barometer since December 2011 and is otherwise the lowest dip since March 2009 during the global financial crisis.

Responding specifically to the impact of the Coronavirus, 66% of Scotland businesses stated that they had already been affected or expected to be impacted, ahead of Boris Johnson’s initial call for the public to stay at home on March 16th. The data illustrates the impact that the outbreak was having on business confidence before many initiatives launched by the Government to help combat the virus were announced.

The Business Barometer questions 1,200 businesses monthly and provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.

Fraser Sime, regional director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland, said: “It’s impossible to accurately predict how COVID-19 will impact the Scottish economy, so it’s not surprising to see the confidence of Scottish businesses taking a dip as the pandemic evolves.

“The First Minister has called for a partnership to get through this period where the public sector, trade unions, businesses and third sector organisations work together to support Scotland’s workforce. We’re also working by the side of businesses and the government to help firms adapt and adjust as we navigate through this unprecedented period.

“At Bank of Scotland, we’ve committed to lend up to £18bn to businesses this year and have set aside £2bn of arrangement fee free finance to help those directly impacted by COVID-19. From tourism and hospitality to manufacturing, this support is available now. And we will continue to guide and help businesses across all sectors through any interruptions they may face.”

Businesses in the North East had the highest confidence at 23%, ahead of the South West at 16%, and London at 12%.

Those in the South East were the least confident, with an overall confidence of -10%, 16 points below the national average.

Sector overview

In March, overall business confidence fell across all four sectors surveyed. Confidence in the retail sector saw the sharpest decline, falling 21 percentage points to 9%. The manufacturing sector also saw a big decline from 31% to 11%, services was down 18 points to 1%, while the construction sector fell by 15 points to 14%.

Paul Gordon, Managing Director for SME and Mid Corporates, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “There is now little doubt that businesses across the board are feeling the impact of COVID-19. 

“Many businesses have already had to pause their work and others are trying to adapt to new ways of working.

While all sectors have displayed a real dip in confidence, it is important that businesses take the support that is available to them to help them through this unprecedented and uncertain time. We remain committed to supporting our customers in the weeks and months ahead in any way we can.”

Hann-Ju Ho, Senior Economist, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “The results in March demonstrate the impact of the shutdown of large swathes of the economy to combat the pandemic even in advance of the Government’s stringent measures announced in recent days.

“Sentiment has returned to historic low levels after improving in recent months. We will continue to monitor what businesses are telling us, and hope that they can take steps to minimise the impact of current economic downturn.”

Rock Star … or Rock Bottom?

“We have to take a win-at-all-costs attitude to ensure British businesses survive. This is no time for unworkable criteria and red tape – the Government needs to realise this now before it’s too late.”

CHANCELLOR Rishi Sunak was hailed a ‘rock star’ when he announced a range of measures to support British businesses facing a financial crisis due to the coronavirus outbreak.

But one entrepreneur says unless the Chancellor cuts the red tape and changes the criteria preventing firms from accessing vital funding – bosses will soon brand him ‘rock bottom’.

“The Chancellor has made it clear that his intention is to support the British economy and protect British business. The only way to do that in the current COVID-19 situation is to make sure the money is ready and easy to access,” said entrepreneur Eddie Black.

“The headlines about the Government’s announcement about helping businesses via the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS) are fantastic and the Chancellor looks like a rock star. The reality is very different to the headlines.”

Eddie (above), managing director of ECO, says that having read the terms of the loan, and having had in-depth conversations with a range of lenders on the panel, there’s some serious failings in the arrangements which could send businesses to the wall.

The loans are:

  • facilitated via the Enterprise Finance Guarantee (EFG) scheme and only protects the banks up to 80 per cent
  • subject to the usual credit and due diligence (this is estimated to be a four to six-week process)
  • subject to the ability to service the loan – businesses need to provide evidence of future forecasts and business performance predictions

Eddie says this has knock-on effects for the banks: “Originally the banks were going to get 100 per cent guarantees and now it’s only 80 per cent. 

“If there are defaults it will be down to the banks to pursue the debtor and take assets.

“The EFG Scheme might not be a favoured route for them because it means the British Business Bank can say that any inability to pay was down to the lender’s poor due diligence.”

In terms of eligibility criteria for the British Business Bank scheme, an SME must:

  • be UK-based in its business activity, with annual turnover of no more than £45m
  • have a borrowing proposal which, were it not for the current pandemic, would be considered viable by the lender, and for which the lender believes the provision of finance will enable the business to trade out of any short-to-medium term difficulty.

It’s this reliance on future forecasts and business performance projections which Eddie says is such a contradiction.

He went on:  “The British Business Bank criteria states that a company needs to be viable now. Businesses have had all future, or current, opportunities or contracts suspended, and/or, in worst case scenarios, cancelled, without knowing what comes next. 

“Businesses don’t know if that opportunity or contract will be there in the future. Will the client even exist?

“The serviceability and criteria elements are a complete contradiction in terms. No-one knows what the future holds. In many ways, it’s the survival of the fittest.

“There is a risk that businesses will default – that is why it has been described as a war chest.

“The best of British businesses will topple like dominoes if the Government don’t protect the banks. The banks should not be held accountable for lending money that they would not have been asked to lend if it were not for COVID-19.

“If the Chancellor really wants to back British business he needs to back the banks and put the liability on them to ensure that it gets this help into the economy.

“This is a sink or swim scenario and millions of jobs – and the livelihoods of families – are on the line.

“There may be a concern from the Government that businesses will flaunt the rules if these serviceability factors and criteria are not in place, and that might be holding them back on ensuring that this help is available immediately and is easily accessible.

“But businesses which flaunt the rules can be pursued at a later date. Most businesses are not geared up for failure and are in it for the long haul.

“The help is needed now. The money has been pledged and, even if there is a risk of some of it going down the drain, it is better than not getting it into the economy at all.

“We have to take a win-at-all-costs attitude to ensure British businesses survive. This is no time for unworkable criteria and red tape – the Government needs to realise this now before it’s too late.”

ECO has bases at Annan and Creca in Dumfries and Galloway, and in the North-West of England and works all over the UK. It employs 55 people which is due to increase to 80 when it opens its new HQ in the summer.

 

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