“We have to balance the risks”: Johnson’s massive gamble

Prime Minister sets out plan to ease restrictions at step 4

COVID restrictions are set to end in England from step 4 of the Roadmap after the Prime Minister set out how life will soon return close to normal.

  • Social distancing to end, facemasks no longer mandatory, and no limits on gatherings
  • All venues currently closed can safely reopen with no capacity limits
  • PM: We must find a new way of living with the virus

COVID restrictions are set to end in England from step 4 of the Roadmap after the Prime Minister set out how life will soon return close to normal.

The decision to open up will be made in a balanced and careful way, with the Prime Minister being clear that people’s personal judgement will now be key in learning to live with the virus.

Subject to a final review of the data next week, legal restrictions will end on Monday 19 July.

Limits on social contact will end, meaning there will be no restrictions on indoor or outdoor gatherings. Weddings, funerals and other life events able to take place without limits or restrictions.

All venues currently closed will be allowed to reopen, including nightclubs, and there will be no legal requirement for table service in hospitality settings.

Face coverings will no longer be legally required in shops, schools, hospitality, or on public transport although guidance will be in place to suggest where people might choose to wear one, such as where you come into contact with people you don’t usually meet in enclosed and crowded places.

The government reviews into social distancing and Covid-status certification have also now concluded. The 1m plus rule will be lifted other than in specific places such as at the border to help manage the risks of new variants coming into the country.

There will be no legal requirement on the use of Covid-status certification as a condition of entry for visitors to any domestic setting.

As a result of the delay to the final step of the roadmap, the vaccination programme has saved thousands more lives by vaccinating millions more people.

Over 79 million vaccine doses have now been administered in the UK, every adult has now been offered at least one dose, and 64% of adults have received two doses.

The government has also today confirmed the rollout will accelerate further, by reducing the vaccine dose interval for under 40s from 12 weeks to 8. This will mean every adult has the chance to have two doses by mid-September.

The Prime Minister made clear that learning to live with the virus meant cases would continue to rise significantly, even if the success of the vaccination programme meant hospitalisations and deaths will rise at a lower level than during previous peaks.

He set out how cases could rise to 50,000 per day by 19 July, with daily hospital admissions and deaths also rising although more slowly.

The guidance to work from home where possible will also end, to allow employers to start planning a safe return to workplaces.

The cap on the number of named visitors for care home residents will be removed from the current maximum of five per resident, although infection prevention and control measures will remain in place to protect the most vulnerable.

While NHS Test and Trace will continue to play an important role in managing the virus, the PM also signalled the government’s intention to move to a new regime whereby fully vaccinated people would no longer need to self-isolate if identified as a contact. Further details will be set out in due course.

The Education Secretary will also update on new measures for schools and colleges later this week, which will minimise further disruption to education but maintain protection for children.

Proof of vaccination or a negative test will still be required for international travel, with the Prime Minister confirming that the Transport Secretary will provide a further update later this week on removing the need for fully vaccinated arrivals from an amber country to isolate.

PM statement at coronavirus press conference: 5 July 2021

I want to set out what our lives would be like from the 19th of this month – which is only a few days away – if and when we move to step 4 – a decision we will finally take on the 12th – and I want to stress from the outset that this pandemic is far from over and it will certainly not be over by 19th.

As we predicted in the roadmap we’re seeing cases rise fairly rapidly – and there could be 50,000 cases detected per day by the 19th and again as we predicted, we’re seeing rising hospital admissions and we must reconcile ourselves sadly to more deaths from Covid.

In these circumstances we must take a careful and a balanced decision. And there is only one reason why we can contemplate going ahead to step 4 – in circumstances where we’d normally be locking down further – and that’s because of the continuing effectiveness of the vaccine roll-out.

When we paused step 4 a few weeks ago, we had two reasons. First, we wanted to get more jabs into people’s arms – and we have, with over 45 million adults now having received a first dose and 33 million a second.

That is a higher proportion of the adult population of any European country except Malta, and our expectation remains that by July 19 every adult will have had the chance to receive a first dose and two thirds will have received their second dose.

And second, we wanted a bit more time to see the evidence that our vaccines have helped to break the link between disease and death. And as the days have gone by it has grown ever clearer that these vaccines are indeed successful with the majority of those admitted to hospital unvaccinated, and Chris and Patrick will show the data highlighting the greatly reduced mortality that the vaccines have achieved.

So, as we come to the fourth step, we have to balance the risks. The risks of the disease which the vaccines have reduced but very far from eliminated. And the risks of continuing with legally enforced restrictions that inevitably take their toll on people’s lives and livelihoods – on people’s health and mental health.

And we must be honest with ourselves that if we can’t reopen our society in the next few weeks, when we will be helped by the arrival of summer and by the school holidays, then we must ask ourselves when will we be able to return to normal?

And to those who say we should delay again; the alternative is to open up in the winter when the virus will have an advantage or not at all this year.

And so again without pre-empting the decision on 12th July, let me set out today our five-point plan for living with Covid in the hope that it will give families and businesses time to prepare.

First, we will reinforce our vaccine wall, reducing the dose interval for under 40s from 12 weeks to 8, so that everyone over 18 should be double jabbed by mid-September, in addition to our Autumn programme of booster vaccines for the most vulnerable.

Second, we will change the basic tools that we have used to control human behaviour.

We will move away from legal restrictions and allow people to make their own informed decisions about how to manage the virus. From Step 4, we will remove all legal limits on the numbers meeting indoors and outdoors.

We will allow all businesses to re-open, including nightclubs. We will lift the limit on named visitors to care homes, and on numbers of people attending concerts, theatre, and sports events.

We will end the 1 metre plus rule on social distancing, and the legal obligation to wear a face covering, although guidance will suggest where you might choose to do so, especially when cases are rising, and where you come into contact with people you don’t normally meet in enclosed places, such as obviously crowded public transport.

It will no longer be necessary for government to instruct people to work from home, so employers will be able to start planning a safe return to the workplace.

There will be no Covid certificate required as a condition of entry to any venue or event, although businesses and events can certainly make use of certification and the NHS app gives you a Covid pass as one way to show your Covid status.

Third, we will continue from Step 4 to manage the virus with a test, trace and isolate system that is proportionate to the pandemic. You will have to self-isolate if you test positive or are told to do so by NHS Test and Trace.

But we are looking to move to a different regime for fully vaccinated contacts of those testing positive, and also for children. And tomorrow the Education Secretary will announce our plans to maintain key protections but remove bubbles and contact isolation for pupils.

Fourth, from Step 4 we will maintain our tough border controls – including the red list – and recognising the protection afforded by two doses of vaccine, we will work with the travel industry towards removing the need for fully vaccinated arrivals to isolate on return from an amber country and the Transport Secretary will provide a further update later this week.

Last, we will continue to monitor the data and retain contingency measures to help manage the virus during higher risk periods, such as the winter.

But we will place an emphasis on strengthened guidance and do everything possible to avoid re-imposing restrictions with all the costs that they bring.

As we set out this new approach, I am mindful that today is the 73rd anniversary of our National Health Service and there could not be a more fitting moment to pay tribute once again to every one of our NHS and social care workers.

And the best thing we can do to repay their courage and dedication right now is protect ourselves and others and to get those jabs whenever our turn comes.

Jonathan Ashworth MP, Labour’s Shadow Health Secretary, responding to the Health Secretary’s statement in the House on the lifting of lockdown restrictions from the 19th July, said: Can I start by paying to tribute, on its 73rd anniversary, to our National Health Service and our extraordinary health and care workforce.

The birthday present the NHS deserves is a fair pay rise not a real terms pay cut for health care workers.

We all want to see restrictions end.

But what he is announcing today isn’t a guarantee that restrictions will end – only what it will look like.

Can he confirm that ending will be based on SAGE advice and the data?

But let’s be clear only 50 per cent of people across England are fully vaccinated and another 17 per cent partially.

Infections continue to rise steeply, hospitalisations are rising.

Inherent in the strategy outlined is an acceptance that infections will surge further, that hospitalisations will increase and we will hit a peak later this summer.

Some of those hospitalised will die.

Thousands – children and younger people – will be left exposed to a virus with no vaccination protection.

Leaving them at risk of long term chronic illness, the personal impacts of which may be felt for years to come.

So as part of his learning to live with Covid strategy: How many deaths does he consider acceptable? How many cases of long Covid does he consider acceptable?

And given we know high circulations of the virus can see it evolve and possibly escape vaccines, what risk assessment has he done of the possibility of a new variant emerging and will he publish it?

The Secretary of State says that every date for unlocking carries risk and we have to learn to live with the virus.

Because we don’t just accept other diseases.

He compares it to flu but flu doesn’t leaves tens of thousands with long term illness.

And we don’t just accept flu, measles, or sexually transmitted infections.

We put in place mitigations so we live in as low a risk way as possible.

Israel has reintroduced its mask mandate because of the Delta variant so why is he planning to bin ours?

Masks don’t restrict freedoms in a pandemic but when so much virus is circulating, they ensure that everyone who goes to the shops or takes public transport can do so safely.

If nobody is masked, Covid risk increases and we’re all less safe; especially those who have been shielding and are anxious.

Why should those who are worried and shielding be shut out of public transport and shops.

That’s not a definition I recognise.

And who else suffers most when masks are removed?

It’s those working in shops, those who drive buses and taxis, it’s low paid workers without access to decent sick pay, many of whom live in overcrowded housing who’ve been savagely disproportionately impacted by this virus from day one.

We heard last week in Greater Manchester that deaths were higher than the average.

So given isolation will still be needed does he think living with the virus means the low paid should be properly supported or does he think they would just game the system as the previous Health Secretary suggested?

Masks are effective because we know the virus is airborne.

He could mitigate further Covid risks by insisting on ventilation standards in premises and crowded buildings. He could offer grants for air filtration systems. Instead all we get is more advice.

Ventilation in buildings and grants to support air filtration systems don’t restrict anyone’s freedoms.

Finally he announced we can all crowd into pubs, meanwhile infection rates in school settings continue to disrupt schooling, with nearly 400,000 children off in one week.

The root cause of this isn’t isolation but transmission.

One in twenty children were off school isolating the week before last.

There are still three weeks of term time left – will he bring back masks in schools, will they be provided with resources for smaller classes, will they get ventilation help and when will adolescents be eligible for vaccination as they are in other countries?

Yesterday he said he believes the best way to protect the nation’s health is to lift all restrictions.

I know he boasts of his student year at Harvard studying pandemics but I think he must have overslept and missed the tutorial on infectious disease control.

Because widespread transmission will not make us healthier.

We’re not out of the woods, we want to see the lockdown end but we need lifesaving mitigation in place.

We still need sick pay, local contact tracing, continued mask wearing, ventilation and support for children to prevent serious illness.

I hope when he returns next week he will have put those measures in place.

Speaking ahead of the Prime Minister’s announcement on the next stage of unlocking, TUC Deputy General Secretary Paul Nowak said: “We all want the economy to unlock as soon as possible. But it is vital that people returning to work have confidence their workplaces are as Covid-secure as possible.

“It is not acceptable for the government to outsource its health and safety responsibilities to individuals and to employers.

“Personal responsibility will have a role to play, but ministers cannot wash their hands of keeping people safe at work.

“With cases rising the government must send out a clear message to employers to play by the rules or face serious action.

“That means publishing clear guidance based on the most up-to-date science and consultations with unions and employers.”

Unite, the UK’s leading union, which represents tens of thousands of public transport workers, is calling on the government to reverse proposals to end the requirement for masks to be worn on buses and trains. 

Unite issued its warning as ministers have indicated that from Monday 19 July the wearing of face masks will no longer be compulsory but a matter of ‘personal responsibility’.

The requirement for passengers to wear masks is particularly sensitive for bus drivers due to the very high numbers who have died of Covid-19.

Unite also believes that restrictions on the maximum capacity of passengers on buses should also remain in place.

Unite national officer for passenger transport Bobby Morton said: “To end the requirement to wear masks on public transport would be an act of gross negligence by the government.

“Rates of infection are continuing to increase and not only does mask wearing reduce transmissions it helps provide reassurance to drivers and to passengers who are nervous about using public transport.

“The idea of personal responsibility and hoping that people will wear masks is absolutely ridiculous, members are already reporting there is an increase in passengers ignoring the rules on mask wearing.

“Until rates of Covid-19 are fully under control, throughout the whole of the UK, the rules on mask wearing on public transport should remain in place.”

Scotland’s SNP Government has made no comment on the Prime Minister’s plans.

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davepickering

Edinburgh reporter and photographer