Local lockdowns and remote working stifling potential high street jobs recovery

Deserted high streets and city centres are hampering Britain’s jobs recovery with urban areas in Scotland and south England bearing the steepest declines in vacancies.  

New research by the Centre for Cities think tank and global job site Indeed found that seven months after the nationwide lockdown was imposed, job vacancies have failed to return to pre-Covid levels in all 63 towns and cities they analysed. 

Aberdeen recorded the steepest fall with a -75% year-on-year decline followed by Edinburgh (-57%), Belfast and the West Sussex town, Crawley (both -55%). London has seen the sixth biggest fall in job postings (-52%).

Chatham (-7%), Stoke (-17%) and Burnley (-18%) saw the shallowest declines while overall UK vacancies are -46% behind last year’s level.

Where has seen the biggest falls in job vacancies?
Cities and large towns with the LARGEST drop in job vacanciesCities and large towns with the SMALLEST drop in job vacancies
RankPlaceFall in job postings since 2019 (%)RankPlaceFall in job postings since 2019 (%)
1Aberdeen-75%1Chatham-7%
2Edinburgh-57%2Stoke-17%
3Belfast-55%3Burnley-18%
4Crawley-55%4Birkenhead-20%
5Aldershot-54%5Mansfield-21%
6London-52%6Ipswich-22%
7Reading-52%7Peterborough-23%
8Worthing-51%8Middlesbrough-26%
9Luton-50%9Plymouth-26%
10York-49%10Derby-27%

The stuttering jobs recovery is closely linked to the collapse in local service jobs. These are roles that involve selling directly to local consumers, including sectors like food, retail, arts and leisure, which are exposed to Covid-related restrictions.

The rise in people working from home has dried up demand for local services in big cities, with London, Manchester and Edinburgh – cities where remote work has been most feasible during the pandemic – among the places with the slowest recovery in job postings in local services businesses compared with last year.

In London 10.7% of job postings mention ‘remote work’ and in large cities with a population of over 600,000 the rate is 9.7%.

While no place or sector has escaped the labour market crisis, those where high street footfall returned to normal more quickly – Birkenhead, Chatham and Hull – have seen a faster recovery in posted job vacancies. Public sector jobs have also been relatively sheltered from the crisis compared to private sector ones.

Andrew Carter, Centre for Cities’ Chief Executive, said: “While unemployment continues to rise, the number of jobs available to people who find themselves out of work is far below its level last year in every single large city and town in the UK. This could have potentially catastrophic long-term consequences for people and the economy.

“The Government has told us to expect a tough winter and, while local lockdowns are necessary to protect lives, it is vital that ministers continue to listen and reassess the level of support given to help people and places to cope with the months ahead.

“The Chancellor made welcome amendments to the JSS which should help save jobs, but many places across the country didn’t have enough jobs before the pandemic hit so creating more will be vital to prevent long-term economic damage to their local economies.”

Pawel Adrjan, EMEA head of research at the global job site Indeed, said: “The timid recovery in job vacancies is a portent of the distress towns and cities could face if restrictions continue to spring up in parts of the country already reeling from imposed lockdowns and reduced footfall.

“With the remote work trend showing no sign of abating – and entire regions being placed under stricter control – service jobs in large towns and cities could become scarcer still and pull the UK into a jobs spiral. That could mean a very long winter ahead for the millions of people currently unemployed.”

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davepickering

Edinburgh reporter and photographer