The Fall Guy: Kwasi Kwarteng sacked

CHANCELLOR Kwasi Kwarteng has been sacked, carrying the can for the ill-judged ‘mini-budget’ which has caused economic turmoil since it was announced three weeks ago today.

‘I’m going nowhere’ Kwarteng, Prime Minister Liz Truss’s choice as Chancellor, was recalled from an IMF meeting in Washington DC this morning to be told the news.

Prime Minister Liz Truss will desperately hope that the departure of close ally Kwarteng will appease the markets. She made the following brief statement confirming a humiliating U-turn this afternoon:

Good afternoon,

My conviction that this country needs to go for growth is rooted in my personal experience.

I know what it’s like to grow up somewhere that isn’t feeling the benefits of growth.

I saw what that meant and I am not prepared to accept that for our country.

I want a country where people can get good jobs, new businesses can set up and families can afford an even better life.

That’s why from day one I’ve been ambitious for growth.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the potential of this great country has been held back by persistently weak growth.

I want to deliver a low tax, high wage, high growth economy.

It’s what I was elected by my party to do.

That mission remains.

People across this country rightly want stability.

That is why we acted to support businesses and households with their energy costs this winter.

It’s also the case that global economic conditions are worsening due to the continuation of Putin’s appalling war in Ukraine.

And on top of this, debt was amassed helping people through the Covid pandemic.

But it is clear that parts of our mini budget went further and faster than markets were expecting. So the way we are delivering our mission right now has to change.

We need to act now to reassure the markets of our fiscal discipline.

I have therefore decided to keep the increase in corporation tax that was planned by the previous government. This will raise £18 billion per year.

It will act as a down-payment on our full Medium-Term Fiscal Plan which will be accompanied by a forecast from the independent OBR.

We will do whatever is necessary to ensure debt is falling as a share of the economy in the medium term.

We will control the size of the state to ensure that taxpayers’ money is always well spent.

Our public sector will become more efficient to deliver world-class services for the British people.

And spending will grow less rapidly than previously planned.

I met the former Chancellor earlier today. I was incredibly sorry to lose him. He is a great friend and he shares my vision to set this country on the path to growth.

Today I have asked Jeremy Hunt to become the new Chancellor.

He is one of the most experienced and widely respected government ministers and parliamentarians.

And he shares my convictions and ambitions for our country.

He will deliver the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan at the end of this month.

He will see through the support we are providing to help families and businesses including our Energy Price Guarantee that’s protecting people from higher energy bills this winter.

And he will drive our mission to go for growth, including taking forward the supply side reforms that our country needs.

We owe it to the next generation to improve our economic performance to deliver higher wages, new jobs and better public services, and to ease the burden of debt.

I have acted decisively today because my priority is ensuring our country’s economic stability.

As Prime Minister, I will always act in the national interest.

This is always my first consideration.

I want to be honest, this is difficult. But we will get through this storm.

And we will deliver the strong and sustained growth that can transform the prosperity of our country for generations to come.

Kwarteng’s replacement – and the UK’s fourth Chancellor in a tumultuous 2022 – is none other than veteran former health secretary Jeremy Hunt.

Hunt supported Rishi Sunak – who’s predictions on the economy have been proved painfully accurate – in the recent Tory leadership election.

Hunt himself was an early casualty in the recent Tory leadership election and was also once voted as the most unpopular front-line politician of all time!

Clearly another popular choice … what could possibly go wrong?

HM Treasury issued the following statement this evening:

Government update on Corporation Tax

  • The Prime Minister has set out that the way the government is delivering on its mission to achieve a low tax, high wage, high growth economy is to change.
  • The legislated increase in the Corporation Tax rate from April 2023 will go ahead, with most small businesses benefitting from the new small profits rate.
  • Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will deliver the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on 31 October, detailing action to get debt falling as a percentage of GDP over the medium term.

The government has today [Friday 14 October] announced that Corporation Tax will increase to 25% from April 2023 as already legislated for, raising around £18 billion a year and acting as a down payment on its full Medium-Term Fiscal Plan.

The decision has been taken in recognition of the need to ensure the UK’s economic stability and reassure markets of its commitment to fiscal discipline, after elements of September’s Growth Plan went further and faster than markets were expecting.

The Prime Minister has set out that the government is prepared to do whatever is necessary to ensure debt is falling as a share of the economy in the medium term and to ensure that taxpayers’ money is well spent, putting public finances on a sustainable footing.

The previously announced small profits rate of Corporation Tax will be maintained. Smaller or less profitable businesses will not pay the full 25% rate, and companies with less than £50,000 of profit – the large majority – will not see any increase at all, continuing to pay Corporation Tax at 19%.

The UK’s corporate tax regime will remain competitive and supportive of growth at the 25% rate, continuing to be the lowest rate in the G7. As part of the forthcoming tax review, the government will look at how the tax system can go further to promote growth and investment.

The government is committed to growing the economy and taking forward supply-side reforms that will ignite strong and sustained growth that delivers prosperity for the UK.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will set out the government’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on 31 October, alongside a full forecast from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility.

Former nurse disqualified as a company director for 10 years

Director of health and wellbeing company falsely claimed £30,000 Bounce Back Loan for personal gain during pandemic

Monica Coyle, 51, from Kilmarnock has been disqualified as a director for 10 years after fraudulently claiming a £30,000 government Bounce Back Loan (BBL).

Coyle, a former NHS nurse, was director of Positive Pulse Limited, a health and wellbeing company which provided health checks to employees of businesses. She had also been president of business and professional women’s group Ayrshire Business Women in 2019.

Coyle applied for the Bounce Back Loan in May 2020 after the Covid-19 pandemic impacted her business.

She falsely declared turnover of £130,000 in her application, rather than the actual turnover of her business, which was less than £5,000.

As a result, Coyle received a BBL of £30,000, of which she spent over £26,000 on personal use.

Bounce Back Loans were earmarked for small to medium sized companies impacted by Covid-19, and the loans were designed to support the company, rather than for the director’s own gain.

Positive Pulse Limited went into Creditors Voluntary Liquidation in February 2022, owing £30,000 to the bank, in respect of the BBL.

The Secretary of State accepted a disqualification undertaking from Monica Coyle, after she did not dispute that she caused the company to apply for, and receive, a BBL of £30,000 which the company was not entitled to, following which she received personal gain.

Her ban is effective from 16 September 2022 and will last for 10 years.

The disqualification undertaking prevents Monica Coyle from directly, or indirectly, becoming involved in the promotion, formation or management of a company, without the permission of the court.

Investigation Manager Steven McGinty said: ‘Bounce Back Loans were made for the economic benefit of the company, not for directors’ personal gain.

‘Monica Coyle exploited the scheme and took taxpayers’ money during the pandemic which she knew she was not entitled to.’

Friends of the Earth: UK Government ‘sticking two fingers up’ to climate with new oil and gas licenses

Environmental campaigners have reacted angrily to the UK Government plans to increase exploration for new oil and gas fields despite the devastating climate impacts of burning fossil fuels. 

They accused politicians of ‘sticking two fingers up’ to scientists calling for an end to fossil fuels to protect the climate. Climate science and energy experts have repeatedly warned that any new oil and gas projects will push the world well past dangerous climate limits.  

The North Sea Transition Authority confirmed today that they will invite companies to apply for over 100 licences to explore for more fossil fuels in the North Sea.

The UK Committee on Climate Change said earlier this year that the timeline from the issuing of an exploration licence to production commencing ranges from under a decade to several decades, with an average of around 28 years. 

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon opposed the controversial Cambo oil field last year, and has since recognised that oil and gas is not a solution to the current price crisis, but has so far stopped short of opposing the Jackdaw or Rosebank fields. 

Friends of the Earth Scotland’s Oil and Gas campaigner Freya Aitchison said:
“By encouraging greedy fossil fuel companies to keep looking for more fossil fuels, the UK Government is denying the reality of the climate emergency.

“It is sticking two fingers up to climate scientists and energy experts who have made it clear that there should be no new oil and gas if we are to remain within agreed climate limits. 

“The devastating climate impacts people are enduring with floods in Pakistan, Hurricane Ian in the US and the scorching heatwave in the UK are being driven by burning fossil fuels. The UK Government clearly doesn’t care about the impact its decisions will have on vulnerable people and communities around the world. 

“Instead of new fossil fuels, we urgently need a transition to an energy system powered by renewables, and a mass rollout of energy efficiency measures to reduce energy demand. With the cost of living skyrocketing due to the volatile prices of oil and gas, it’s obvious that our current energy system is completely unfit for purpose, serving only to make oil company bosses and shareholders richer while everyone else loses out. ”


On the Scottish Government’s role:

“The Scottish Government must be willing to stand up to these reckless plans to expand fossil fuels in the North Sea. These announcements risk locking us into a climate-destroying energy system for decades to come, entrenching reliance on this volatile industry in places like Aberdeen, and leaving people all across Scotland exposed to rocketing energy bills.”       

On the ‘Climate Compatibility Checkpoint’:

“The UK government’s supposed checkpoint is a worthless charade as there can be no climate compatible new oil and gas. It is a deeply cynical attempt to provide cover for reckless plans to expand the very industry that is fuelling both the climate and the cost of living crises.

Prime Minister welcomes ‘powerful show of solidarity’ at European leaders’ meeting

Prime Minister Liz Truss met European leaders at Prague summit in show of unity against Russian aggression

  • Prime Minister pays tribute to “collective resolve” to oppose Russian aggression
  • UK agrees new regional energy cooperation and progress on Sizewell C nuclear development at Prague summit
  • Ministers to take forward enhanced operational cooperation to address migrant crisis

Prime Minister Liz Truss has welcomed the strong show of unity against Russian tyranny at the summit of European leaders yesterday, as the UK secures new commitments on energy and migration.

Convening 44 leaders from across the continent, the meeting in Prague reaffirmed the steadfast resistance to Russia’s aggression.

In a meeting with French President Macron, both leaders confirmed their full support for the new nuclear power station at Sizewell C and committed to take all necessary steps to finalise investment decisions within the next month, progressing the next generation of the UK’s nuclear power. 

The UK and France will ramp up wider cooperation on civil-nuclear development ahead of a planned UK-France Summit in 2023, working together on issues including new innovation, infrastructure and workforce training.

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala also confirmed plans to renew the UK’s participation in the North Seas Energy Cooperation group, which supports the construction of wind farms and interconnectors in the region. The Prime Minister used the summit to push for the development of new, next-generation hybrid interconnectors in the North Sea to accelerate renewable energy capacity. 

Prime Minister Liz Truss said: “Leaders leave this summit with greater collective resolve to stand up to Russian aggression. What we have seen in Prague is a forceful show of solidarity with Ukraine, and for the principles of freedom and democracy.

“The UK will continue to work with our allies to deliver on the British people’s priorities, including ending our reliance on authoritarian regimes for energy and reducing costs for families, tackling people smuggling gangs, and standing up to tyrants.”

The Prime Minister also discussed the benefits of energy partnerships with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre, highlighting today’s announcement from London-based firm Neptune Energy that it will increase gas production at the Duva field as a successful example. Gas from Norway’s Duva subsea field serves households in the UK.

On migration, the UK Prime Minister agreed with President Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Rutte to intensify cooperation on tackling illegal migration. The UK and France confirmed that their interior ministers would conclude an ambitious package of measures to address pernicious people smuggling gangs in the Channel this autumn.

The Prime Minister also attended the closing plenary session and dinner at the European leaders’ summit last night.

Over eight million households to receive second Cost of Living Payment from 8 November

Over 8 million households are set to receive an additional £324 as part of the government’s Cost of Living support package

  • The £324 Cost of Living Payment, which follows on from a £326 payment made from July, is part of £1,200 support package for millions this year
  • The £150 Disability Cost of Living Payment was provided in September, with a £300 additional pensioner payment to come in the Winter

Millions of households across the UK will receive a £324 cost of living cash boost by the 23 of November.

The government has today announced that households receiving DWP benefits will receive the second part of the £650 Cost of Living Payment from 8 November and continuing through to the 23 November.

Over 8 million families have already received the first Cost of Living Payment, worth £326, which was sent out from 14 July this year.

The second payment will automatically be paid into the bank accounts of those eligible in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland who receive a qualifying benefit, meaning they will not need to do anything to receive the money.

Work and Pensions Secretary, Chloe Smith said: “Millions of families will soon see a £324 cash boost as part of our extensive £1,200 support package, helping to raise incomes and manage the rising cost of living.

“We understand that people are struggling which is why and we’re committed to supporting the most vulnerable households. That’s also why we are focused on driving growth and delivering quality public services so we can continue to support those in need through these challenging times while boosting opportunity for all.”

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng added: “We know that people have been worried about their bills ahead of this winter, which is why we’ve taken decisive action to hold down energy bills, saving the average household around £1,000 a year, and provided £1,200 of targeted support to the most vulnerable.

“Without our intervention, analysts were predicting that the average annual energy bill could have reached £6,500 next year. We were never going to let this happen.

“Our Growth Plan will also leave more money in people’s pockets and, over the longer term, help drive economic growth – the only way to permanently boost everyone’s living standards.”

The DWP will pay a small number of payments on the 8 November, with numbers increasing significantly from the 9 November. Even if you are not on a qualifying DWP benefit you may still be eligible for the £324 payment as HMRC are also making payments to those who receive tax credits and no other eligible benefits. These will be paid shortly after DWP payments and customers do not need to contact the government or apply for the payment at any stage.

This payment comes on top of extensive government support with the cost of living this winter, including around 6 million disabled people having been paid a separate £150 Disability Cost of Living Payment, whilst over 8 million pensioner households will receive an extra one-off £300 Winter Fuel Payment this year.

 This is in addition to an extension to the Household Support Fund, which is providing an extra £421 million for use between October and March to help vulnerable people with the essentials.

UK Government cuts ‘red tape’ for thousands of growing businesses

  • More businesses to be categorised as small businesses, meaning less red tape
  • Move will potentially exempt tens of thousands of the UK’s growing businesses from relevant future regulations, saving them thousands of pounds
  • Start of a sweeping package of reforms to cut red tape for business and stimulate growth

Thousands of the UK’s fastest-growing businesses will be released from reporting requirements and other regulations in the future, as part of plans aimed at boosting productivity and supercharging growth, Prime Minister Liz Truss announced yesterday.

Currently, small businesses are presumed to be exempt from certain regulations. However, many medium sized businesses – those with between 50 and 249 employees – still report that they are spending over 22 staff days per month on average dealing with regulation, and over half of all businesses consider regulation to be a burden to their operation [source].

The Prime Minister has announced plans to widen these exemptions to businesses with fewer than 500 employees for future and reviewed regulations, meaning an additional 40,000 businesses will be freed from future bureaucracy and the accompanying paperwork that is expensive and burdensome for all but the largest firms.

The exemption will be applied in a proportionate way to ensure workers’ rights and other standards will be protected, while at the same time reducing the burden for growing businesses.

Regulatory exemptions are often granted for SMEs, which the EU defines at below 250 employees. However, we are free to take our own approach and exempt more businesses to those with under 500 employees. We will also be able to apply this to retained EU law currently under review, which we would not have been able to do without our exit from the EU.

The changed threshold will apply from today (Monday 3 October) to all new regulations under development as well as those under current and future review, including retained EU laws. The Government will also look at plans to consult in the future on potentially extending the threshold to businesses with 1000 employees, once the impact on the current extension is known.

This is the first step in a package of reforms to ensure UK business regulation works for the UK economy. The reforms will harness the freedoms the UK has since leaving the EU to remove bureaucratic and burdensome regulations on businesses, while streamlining and making it easier for them to comply with existing rules, ultimately saving them valuable time and money.

U-TURN: Chancellor scraps plan to cut top rate of tax

KWARTENG: ‘WE GET IT – WE HAVE LISTENED’

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has annnounced a humiliating U-Turn on plans to slash the 45p top rate of tax for highest earners.

He tweeted this morning:

UK mini-budget a “huge gamble on health of economy”

SWINNEY SEEKS URGENT MEETING WITH CHANCELLOR

Deputy First Minister John Swinney and his counterparts from other devolved governments are seeking an urgent meeting with Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng to discuss immediate actions needed to reverse the damaging effects of the UK Government’s tax proposals.

Mr Swinney and the Finance Ministers from Wales and Northern Ireland are highlighting the profound impact of “the largest set of unfunded tax cuts for the rich in over 50 years” warning that it is “a huge gamble on public finances and the health of our economy”.  

In a joint letter to Mr Kwarteng, they warn against being condemned to another decade of austerity and express deep concern over reports that UK Government departments will be asked to make spending cuts to balance the budget, which may have profound consequences for devolved budget settlements already eroded by inflation.

The Ministers also renew calls for the UK Government to provide targeted support for households and businesses, funded through a windfall tax on the energy sector. In addition, they call for Social Security benefits to be increased, and request additional resources for the devolved governments to protect public services and to fund public sector pay settlements.

Read the letter in full here.

Fraser of Allander Institute: The aftermath of the mini-budget

For some in Westminster, a week in politics will never have seemed longer. Financial markets are still reeling from the announcement of the £40bn of deficit-financed income tax cuts announced last week.

The ramifications through the financial system are myriad but stem from the decisions of UKG heaping more uncertainty onto markets that were already bracing themselves for a difficult few months.

Our budget response last week referred to the decisions made by UKG as being a gamble. Tax cuts do not necessarily lead to growth, and the additional tax revenues and lower debt/deficit:GDP ratios that would come with that growth. The absence of an OBR forecast, which may have helped reassure the markets that the plans were credible, did not help (and of course, the OBR could have been less supportive of the plans than the Chancellor would have hoped for).

The upshot is that the risk that the UKG will have permanently higher borrowing has increased, leading to a fall in the value of government bonds. Inflation has become even harder to predict and with that the future path for interest rates. All this has real implications for markets that we all come into contact with, including most notably pensions and mortgages.

The tax cuts announced last week were part of a plan for growth that the Chancellor and the PM are holding firm on. The hope is that it will boost the labour supply by incentivising people to work more.

By abolishing the additional rate, it is hoped more high earners people will want to work in the UK. Whether or not it works depends on whether people change their behaviour in light of the tax cuts, or whether other factors override the increased financial incentive.

For example, for basic rate tax payers, there may be structural barriers that constrain their ability to work – the availability of childcare being an obvious example. Additional rate tax payers may not see the tax cut as being substantial enough to make them relocate, or they may not be able to due to visa restrictions.

There are promises of further supply side reforms in the coming months, including on childcare and visas, that may increase confidence that the plan is credible, but at the moment, only a notable few appear to believe it is guaranteed to succeed.

Some of the trailed reforms will apply UK wide, and changes to rules around immigration will be keenly anticipated by many businesses in Scotland.

Others, such as reform in childcare, may not apply in Scotland as provision of publicly funded childcare falls under devolved competence. Increased spending on childcare by Westminster could lead to additional consequentials to Scotland.

However, in terms of the Scottish budget, there is always the risk that additional consequentials from one area are offset by decisions to cut spending in other departments.

That appears increasingly likely. This week, UKG departments have been asked to look for savings in departmental spending, which looks like an attempt to sure up fiscal credibility from the other side of the ledger.

This leaves the Scottish Government, along with everyone else, dealing with more uncertainty than they expected just over a week ago. The Emergency Budget Response from John Swinney has been pushed back to late October, but it will be difficult for the Scottish Government to act decisively until more is known about what the UKG will do next. For that we may have to wait until late November, when we also expect to see OBR’s assessment of the UKG’s plans.

Next week, we will be publishing our quarterly Economic Commentary which will provide insight and analysis on the pressures that were already facing the Scottish Economy.

The events of the last week are having ramifications on the real economy, but there were of course multiple issues that businesses and households were already trying to deal with. Look out for our report on Tuesday 4th October.

Government support for energy bills begins for households and businesses

From today, the UK Government’s Energy Price Guarantee will limit the price households pay per unit of gas and electricity they use

  • The Energy Price Guarantee reduces household energy bills over the next two years, with a typical family paying around £2,500, saving £1,000 per year
  • Businesses, charities and public sector organisations will pay less than half the expected prices this winter under the Energy Bill Relief Scheme from October
  • Government energy support makes up the largest single component of the Growth Plan, protecting jobs and livelihoods and curbing inflation by 5 percentage points

Households, businesses and public sector organisations across the country will be protected from significant rises in energy bills, thanks to new government support taking effect from today (Saturday 1 October).

Without Government action, average household energy bills under the energy price cap had been due to rise to around £3,500 a year in October – a rise of 80% on current bills. Next year, they were estimated to increase even further to as high as £6,500.

From today, the Government’s Energy Price Guarantee will limit the price households pay per unit of gas and electricity they use.

It means a typical household in Great Britain will pay around £2,500 per year, starting this month for the next two years – saving an average £1,000 a year on their energy bills.

Households will also see the first instalment of the £400 Energy Bill Support Scheme in their October electricity bill. The discount will be automatically applied monthly in six instalments between October 2022 and March 2023.

Thanks to the government’s support, energy bills will now be close to where they’ve been for the past six months – and it will curb inflation by 5 percentage points, boosting economic growth, controlling the rising cost of goods, and reducing the cost of servicing the national debt.

This necessary intervention makes up the biggest proportion the Government’s fiscal package set out in the Growth Plan.

Prime Minister Liz Truss said: “I know people across the country are anxious about their energy bills, which is why we have acted quickly to help them.

“Livelihoods and businesses were at stake. The government’s energy support limits the price they pay for gas and electricity, shields them from massive bill increases, and is expected to curb inflation too.

“The cost of not acting would have been enormous. To make sure the British public is not left in this position again, we are also fixing the problem at its source by scaling up home-grown energy and reducing reliance on foreign supplies to boost our energy security and independence.”

The UK Government is also urging people today to stay alert to scams and fraudulent messages. There is no need to apply for the schemes, with most customers receiving today’s support automatically through their electricity bill.

Households in Northern Ireland will also receive the same support through the Energy Price Guarantee from November, with support for October bills backdated so they see the same benefit overall.

Those who might live in an area of the UK that is not served by the gas grid or use alternative fuels such as heating oil to heat their home will receive a £100 payment to support them with their energy bills.

Business and Energy Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg said: “While Putin’s weaponisation of energy has driven energy prices to record highs, we will not let his regime harm this country’s businesses and households.

“Unprecedented government support is beginning this weekend, protecting families and businesses across the country from what was going to be an 80% increase in energy bills this winter.

“I also urge people today to stay alert to scams. This support will reach people automatically and there is no need to apply.”

British businesses have also been experiencing significant increases in energy costs, with some reports of more than 500%. Businesses, charities and public sector organisations will also be protected through the Government’s Energy Bill Relief Scheme from October over the next six months.

This support is equivalent to the Energy Price Guarantee put in place for households and similarly discounts price per unit of gas and electricity, meaning businesses and others will pay wholesale energy costs well below half of expected prices for this winter.

In parallel, the Government is also taking decisive steps to tackle the root cause of the issues in the UK energy market through boosting British energy supply and increasing independence to ensure this doesn’t happen again.

This includes the work of our Energy Supply Taskforce, a new oil and gas licensing round, lifting the moratorium on UK shale gas production, and driving forward progress on nuclear and renewables.