Parts of eastern Scotland remain under sustained water scarcity pressure, and a small number of catchments are approaching trigger levels where regulatory restrictions on abstractions may be required early next week.
The latest water scarcity report from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) shows the situation across the country.
SEPA’s four-tier water scarcity scale goes from Early Warning through Alert and Moderate Scarcity up to Significant Scarcity. The most impacted catchments are currently those at Moderate Scarcity.
Moderate Scarcity – Escalated this week: Spey, Almond and Tweed catchments. They join the Deveron, Ythan, Don (Aberdeenshire), Esk (Angus), Firth of Tay and Tyne (Lothian), which have been at Moderate Scarcity for several months.
Alert – Escalated this week: Earn and Orkney catchments. The Findhorn, Dee (Aberdeenshire) and Firth of Forth catchments remain at this level.
Early Warning – Escalated this week: Forth, Esk (Dumfriesshire), Annan, Nith, Dee (Galloway), Cree and Leven (Dunbartonshire) catchments have been moved from Normal to Early Warning. Wick, Helmsdale, Tay, Clyde, Naver and Thurso catchments remain at this level.
Not enough rain
Localised thunderstorms at the end of last week, including reports of large hail in Dundee and parts of Aberdeenshire, did not change the overall water scarcity picture. Showers were short lived and patchy, often missing the catchments that needed rain most, and on very dry ground intense rain tends to run off rather than soak in – limiting recharge of rivers and groundwater.
Rainfall data underlines how long this situation has been building. On the east coast of Scotland every month since the start of 2025 has been drier than average. In some eastern areas the deficit extends back to June 2024, with 40% less rainfall than the long-term average over that period.
That prolonged shortfall, coupled with the warm, sunny spring and summer has left rivers, soils and groundwater under pressure.
Areas at risk of restrictions
Early Warning, Alert and Moderate Scarcity indicate the situation on a river catchment scale – based on river levels, groundwater and soil moisture.
Significant scarcity is different. It reflects severe, sustained low flows assessed over a period of time, and is the point at which restrictions are likely.
If very low flows persist in the Deveron, Ythan, Upper and Lower Don in Aberdeenshire, North Fife and the Lower Tweed, SEPA expect those areas could move into significant scarcity as early as next week. The agency has been in direct contact with abstractors in the areas most at risk.
SEPA assess water scarcity each week using long term data and on the ground evidence. Where sustained low flows risk long-term environmental harm, the agency can reduce or temporarily stop licenced abstractions. Any measures would be targeted and time limited, reviewed regularly and lifted as soon as flows recover. If restrictions are required, affected licence holders will be notified directly.
Kenny Boag, SEPA’s Head of Environmental Performance (National), said: “Some rivers in the east of Scotland are days away from the point where restrictions may be needed to protect the environment.
“We are speaking directly to licence holders, so no one should be caught off guard. If you abstract water from the environment, you should already have plans in place. Reduce volumes where you can, stagger abstractions and make sure you are following the conditions of your licence.”
When will the rain come?
There remains uncertainty about the weather next week, as the remnants of ex hurricane Erin could influence Scotland’s weather. It’s too early to say what that will mean for individual catchments, and SEPA will continue to monitor conditions closely.