On the one year anniversary of her passing, the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reflects on the life and service of Her Late Majesty Queen Elizabeth II:
The Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “Today, on the solemn anniversary of the passing of Her Late Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, our thoughts are with His Majesty King Charles III and the whole Royal Family.
With the perspective of a year, the scale of Her Late Majesty’s service only seems greater. Her devotion to the nations of the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth only seems deeper. And our gratitude for such an extraordinary life of duty and dedication, only continues to grow.
I treasure my memories of those occasions when I met Her Late Majesty, in particular the private audience I had with her at Buckingham Palace before presenting my first Budget as Chancellor. I was struck by her wisdom, by her incredible warmth and grace, but also her sharp wit.
People across the UK – whether they had the good fortune to meet Her Late Majesty or not – will be reflecting today on what she meant to them and the example she set for us all. We will cherish those memories.
The bond between country and monarch is sacred. It endures. So, while we continue to mourn Her Late Majesty’s passing, we should be proud that this remarkable legacy of service – and this remarkable bond – continues to grow today under the reign of His Majesty The King.”
The Prime Minister’s plan to stop the boats is beginning to work, with small boat arrivals to the UK down by 20% this year.
This is the first time since the small boat phenomenon began that arrivals in the first half of the year fell compared to the year before. This is not a Europe-wide trend – small boat arrivals to Europe are up 30%.
The Prime Minister set out the progress that has been made on this, one of his five priorities, on a visit to Dover this morning. He also confirmed that:
Our French deal prevented 33,000 illegal crossings last year, 40% more than the year before
Thanks to our partnership with the Government of Albania, Albanian small boat arrivals are down 90% year-on-year and we have returned more than 1,800 Albanian illegal migrants and foreign criminals on weekly flights since December
We have increased the number of illegal working raids by more than 50%, and arrests have more than doubled
The legacy asylum backlog is down almost a fifth since December – and we are on track to deliver our target to clear this by the end of the year
During his statement, the Prime Minister made clear that we still face significant obstacles, and we will see more crossings in the months ahead, but he is determined to stay the course and do what it takes to fix this problem.
The Prime Minister also announced the next steps in the Government’s relentless efforts to get illegal migrants out of expensive hotels and into alternative sites, including confirming that the Government has secured two new vessels. These plans will see thousands moved out of hotels by the Autumn.
Evil grooming gangs who target children and young women will be stamped out under new plans unveiled by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak today
Evil grooming gangs who target children and young women will be stamped out under new plans unveiled by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak today (Monday 3rd April).
A new Grooming Gangs Taskforce will see specialist officers parachuted in to assist police forces with live child sexual exploitation and grooming investigations to bring more of these despicable criminals to justice.
Led by the police and supported by the National Crime Agency, the taskforce will be made up of officers with extensive experience of undertaking grooming gang investigations. They will provide crucial support to forces across the country to root out grooming gangs and put more perpetrators behind bars.
Data analysts will work alongside the taskforce using cutting edge data and intelligence to identify the types of criminals who carry out these offences, helping police forces across the country catch offenders who might otherwise be missed. This will also include police recorded ethnicity data to make sure suspects cannot evade justice because of cultural sensitivities.
This will include better data on the make-up of grooming gangs, including ethnicity, to make sure suspects cannot hide behind cultural sensitivities as a way to evade justice.
The Prime Minister will launch the taskforce later today. To mark this, he will be in Leeds and Greater Manchester to meet survivors, local police partners and members of the new taskforce.
Speaking ahead of this, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “The safety of women and girls is paramount. For too long, political correctness has stopped us from weeding out vile criminals who prey on children and young women. We will stop at nothing to stamp out these dangerous gangs.”
Alongside the new taskforce, the Prime Minister has pledged to make sure grooming gang members and their ring leaders receive the toughest possible sentences.
Legislation will be introduced to make being the leader of or involved in a grooming gang a statutory aggravating factor during sentencing. This reflects the Government’s unwavering commitment to make sure these offenders face the toughest sentences for their crimes and the longest time behind bars.
Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Secretary, Dominic Raab, said: “Grooming gangs are a scourge on our society and I want to send a clear message to anyone who exploits vulnerable children that they will face the full weight of the law.
“This builds on the extensive action this Government has already taken to introduce tougher sentencing, and the reforms introduced last week in the Victims and Prisoners Bill to keep the most dangerous offenders behind bars, while making sure victims get the support they need at all times.”
Today’s announcement follows on from the Home Secretary’s commitment to bring in mandatory reporting for adults working with children if they suspect or identify that child is being abused. By ensuring people speak out if they have concerns, authorities can stop the abuse, put perpetrators behind bars and get victims the support they need much sooner.
Mandatory Reporting was one the key recommendations in the important Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse, which gave a voice to thousands of courageous survivors. Today’s announcement shows how seriously the Government is taking the Inquiry’s recommendations.
Speaking in response to the Government’s announcement on mandatory reporting, Professor Alexis Jay OBE, Chair of the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse, and Author, Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Exploitation in Rotherham, said: “The Prime Minister’s statement today places a renewed focus on tackling the sexual abuse and exploitation of children by organised networks.
“I welcome these announcements, some of which reflect the recommendations of the Inquiry’s own report on child sexual exploitation in 2022. The commitment to Mandatory Reporting is very encouraging, and I look forward to working with the Government to ensure that the full package of the Inquiry’s recommendations in its Final Report is taken forward to better protect children from sexual abuse in the future.”
Home Secretary Suella Braverman said: “Child sexual abuse is one of the most horrific crimes facing our society, it devastates victims, families and whole communities.
“The protection of children is a collective effort. Every adult must be supported to call out child sexual abuse without fear.
“And the despicable abusers must be brought to justice. They should not be able to hide. And they must face the full force of the law for their crimes.
“That’s why I’m introducing a mandatory reporting duty and launching a call for evidence. We must address the failures identified by the Inquiry and take on board the views of the thousands of victims and survivors who contributed to its findings.
“I would encourage everyone to engage with the process once it starts – it is important to have a national conversation about this to shine a light on this terrible – but too often hidden – crime.”
Alongside the mandatory reporting duty, we are bolstering support for the NSPCC’s whistleblowing helpline, as well as their public helpline, giving professionals and members of the public a voice to raise concerns about children, or about child grooming in their community.
UK GOVT’sANTI-SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR ACTION PLAN LAUNCHED TODAY
Perpetrators of anti-social behaviour will face swift and visible justice, increased fines and enhanced drug testing as part of a new crackdown launched by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak today (Monday 27 March).
Delivering on the Prime Minister’s pledge earlier this year to clamp down on these crimes, the Anti-Social Behaviour Action Plan will make sure this issue is treated with the urgency it deserves, establish a zero-tolerance approach to all forms of anti-social behaviour, and give the police and local authorities the tools they need to tackle the problem.
Under the plan, 16 areas in England and Wales will be funded to support either new ‘hotspot’ police and enforcement patrols in areas with the highest rates of anti-social behaviour, or trial a new ‘Immediate Justice’ scheme to deliver swift and visible punishments. A select few areas will trial both interventions, and following these initial trailblazers, both schemes will be rolled out across England and Wales from 2024.
Hotspot trailblazer areas will see an increase in police presence alongside other uniformed authority figures, such as wardens, in problem areas for anti-social behaviour, including public transport, high streets or parks. The increased presence will help deter anti-social behaviour, step up enforcement action against offenders, make sure crimes are punished more quickly and drive deterrence efforts, helping to stop anti-social behaviour spiralling into more serious criminality.
Under the new Immediate Justice scheme, those found committing anti-social behaviour will be made to repair the damage they inflicted on victims and communities, with an ambition for them to start work as soon as 48 hours after their offence so victims know anti-social behaviour is treated seriously and with urgency.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “Anti-social behaviour undermines the basic right of people to feel safe in the place they call home.The public have rightly had enough – which is why I am determined to restore people’s confidence that those responsible will be quickly and visibly punished.
“This action plan maps out how we will tackle this issue with the urgency it deserves and stamp out these crimes once and for all – so that wherever you live, you can feel safe in, and proud of your community.”
Offenders, who will be made to wear high-vis vests or jumpsuits and work under supervision, could be made to pick up litter, remove graffiti and wash police cars as punishment for their actions, and victims of anti-social behaviour from the local community will be given a say in offenders’ punishments to ensure justice is visible and fits the crime. The trailblazers will be launched as soon as possible and follow research that shows anti-social behaviour is the main reason people do not feel safe in their local area.
Under the zero-tolerance approach, Nitrous oxide or “laughing gas” will also be banned to send a clear message to intimidating gangs, that hang around high streets and children’s parks and litter them with empty canisters, they will not get away with this behaviour. The drug is now the third most used among 16 to 24-year-olds in England and both the police and public have repeatedly reported links between use of the drug and nuisance or anti-social behaviour.
Home Secretary Suella Braverman said: “The British public are fed up with crime and nuisance behaviour in their neighbourhoods inflicting misery on people.
“There is no such thing as petty crime – not only does anti-social behaviour leave people feeling unsafe, it can also be a gateway into serious criminality.
“It has always been my priority to give police the powers they need to deliver a common-sense approach to cutting crime, which puts the law-abiding majority first, and that’s what this action plan delivers.”
Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities Michael Gove said: “Anti-social behaviour erodes local pride, blights our high streets and parks and is a stain on too many communities across the country.
“We know that it is more likely to flourish in areas that have, for too long, been overlooked and undervalued.
“This government was elected on a mandate to deliver change for those communities, and that is why the Anti-Social Behaviour Action Plan is critical. So we will intervene directly to prevent high street dereliction. We will deliver tougher, quicker and more visible justice to prevent thuggish behaviour in town centres and we will ensure young people have the opportunities and activities available to them to succeed – all backed by new investment.
“This is about acting on the people’s priorities, delivering safer streets so we can level up across the country.”
Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer said: “I want every young person to have the opportunity to access the kinds of life-changing activities which expand their horizons and allow them to develop vital life skills.
“The National Youth Guarantee will provide these opportunities and support young people with access to regular club activities, adventures away from home and volunteering opportunities.
“We are supporting this today with an investment to create or renovate spaces for youth clubs and activities to support opportunities for thousands of young people across the country who would otherwise miss out.”
Police will also be given new powers to crack down on illegal drug use, often a catalyst for other crimes, including expanding powers for drug testing on arrest so more suspected criminals can be tested, and more drugs tested for, including ecstasy and methamphetamine.
Currently, only suspected criminals who have committed certain offences can be tested in police detention without additional requirements, but we will expand the range of trigger offences to include crimes linked to violence against women and girls, serious violence and anti-social behaviour.
A new reporting tool will also be developed over the next twelve months to act as a digital one-stop shop where people can quickly and easily report incidents of anti-social behaviour when these occur. The tool will help address problems people have faced when trying to report these sorts of crimes because of a lack of clarity around how to raise an issue or who to speak to, or a lack of confidence that these crimes will be dealt with seriously.
As well as being able to report any type of anti-social behaviour, people will have access through the tool to advice and guidance on what to do next in their cases and receive updates on what action is being taken by local police and councils following a report being logged. As well as giving the public confidence that action is being taken, the tool will help support local agencies to share information on perpetrators within their local area more effectively, so they can more quickly identify repeat offenders and take the necessary action to prevent future crimes from happening in the first place
Other measures announced today include:
Increasing the punishment for those who graffiti, litter or fly tip with fines of up to £500 and £1,000– council league tables will be published for fly tipping, and we will work with the Office for Local Government to increase transparency and improve accountability on anti-social behaviour outcomes
Giving landlords and housing associations more powers to evict unruly tenants who ruin their neighbours’ lives through persistent noise or by being drunk and disorderly
Reopening empty shops by giving councils new powers to quickly take control and sell off empty buildings
An anti-social behaviour Taskforce jointly led by the Home Secretary and the Secretary of State for Levelling Up will bring together national and local partners, with a sole focus of addressing anti-social behaviour and restoring pride in place in communities. This will bring together Police and Crime Commissioners, police and local partners and agencies
An extra one million hours of youth services in areas with the highest rates of anti-social behaviour to put people on the right track and prevent them from offending in the first place
Tackling the awful practice of ‘cuckooing’ or home invasion by engaging with stakeholders on the scope of a potential new criminal offence
Parks and green spaces will also be restored with up to £5 million to make them safer with new CCTV and repairing equipment and playgrounds, and to plant more trees and flowers
Nobody should be criminalised simply for having nowhere to live which is why government committed to repealing the antiquated Vagrancy Act, passed in 1824. This comes alongside last year’s unprecedented £2 billion commitment over three years to accelerate efforts to end rough sleeping for good.
It will be made an offence for criminal gangs to organise begging networks for extra cash, which is often used to facilitate illegal activities. To ensure police and local councils can address activity which is intimidating or causes the public distress, they will have the tools to direct people causing nuisance on the street, including obstructing shop doorways and begging by cash points, towards the support they need, such as accommodation, mental health or substance misuse services. The debris and paraphernalia which causes blight will then be cleared.
The UK Government has also today announced that an additional 43 youth centres are to benefit from the next £90 million investment from the Youth Investment Fund, distributed by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport.
As a result, 45,000 more young people a year will have access to state-of-the-art facilities and regular, out-of-school activities, as part of an overall £300 million to be distributed through 2025.
From Lincolnshire to Liverpool, Peterborough to Portsmouth, the Government’s National Youth Guarantee will support the wellbeing of young people in some of the country’s most underserved areas, giving them opportunities to develop vital skills for life, and empowering them to be active members of their community.
The new cross-government action plan builds on the Government’s focus to deliver common sense policing, backed by an unprecedented recruitment drive of 20,000 additional officers by the end of March, which we are on track to achieve. It works in tandem with our priorities to drive down murder rates, tackle serious violence – including against women and girls – and solve and prevent more burglaries.
Neighbourhood crimes like burglary, robbery and theft have dropped by 24% since December 2019 but government wants this driven down further and to see more burglaries solved, which is why the Home Secretary called for police forces in England and Wales to send an officer to attend every domestic burglary.
The Government has also funded 216 projects via rounds one and two of the Levelling Up Fund, totally £3.8 billion, which is driving the regeneration of town centres and high streets, upgrading local transport and investing cultural and heritage assets.
The 16 pilot Police and Crime Commissioner areas are:
Northumbria (Immediate Justice and Hotspot policing)
Cleveland (Immediate Justice and Hotspot policing)
Derbyshire (Immediate Justice and Hotspot policing)
Durham (Immediate Justice and Hotspot policing)
Nottinghamshire (Immediate Justice)
Merseyside (Immediate Justice)
Sussex (Immediate Justice)
Dorset (Immediate Justice)
Northamptonshire (Immediate Justice)
West Yorkshire (Immediate Justice)
West Midlands (Hotspot policing)
South Yorkshire (Hotspot policing)
Essex (Hotspot policing)
Lancashire (Hotspot policing)
South Wales (Hotspot policing)
Staffordshire (Hotspot policing)
Michael Kill, CEO Night Time Industry Association, said: “We welcome the announcement by the Government today that Nitrous oxide is set to be banned under new government plans to clamp down on anti-social behaviour.
“The industry has faced a long standing battle with the sale and use of this drug, exposing staff and customers to anti social behaviour and petty crime, with the current legislation leaving licensees and authorities powerless to tackle the problem.
“Businesses have been put under immense pressure by Police, local authorities and residents as a result of streets being littered with silver canisters, increased petty crime, anti social behaviour and links to organized crime gangs.
“This intervention by the Government has come at a critical time, as businesses across the UK have seen the challenges around nitrous oxide escalate dramatically in the last 6-12 months.”
John Hayward-Cripps, CEO of Neighbourhood Watch Network, said: “Neighbourhood Watch welcomes the clear, strong focus on tackling antisocial behaviour. We believe everyone should be and feel safe in their communities and not worry about being a victim of harassment or antisocial behaviour.
“Reducing antisocial behaviour requires organisations and community members to work together, and the wide-ranging plan being launched champions that. It enables the public who take pride in their community to be included.
“Neighbourhood Watch volunteers are local residents who work with neighbours and others to make their area a better place to live, and this plan supports them in achieving this.”
Ellen Daniels, CEO of the British Compressed Gases Association, said: “We welcome the government’s new measures around the misuse of Nitrous Oxide. As a trade body, and experts in the sector, we have been campaigning for almost three years for a change in the law that would drive down Nitrous Oxide abuse and protect the public from the dangers of its misuse.
“It’s now the third most commonly used substance among 16 to 24-year-olds and misusing Nitrous Oxide can cause permanent damage to the central nervous system including loss of peripheral feeling, loss of motor control and paralysis. In some cases, it can be fatal.”
We can expect a response from Scotland’s new First Minister – whoever that may be – later this week.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said it is “deeply humbling” to be in Kyiv and pledged that the UK will continue to stand by Ukrainians in their fight, on his first visit to the country yesterday [Saturday 19th November].
Meeting President Zelenskyy, he confirmed that the UK will provide a major new package of air defence to help protect Ukrainian civilians and critical national infrastructure from an intense barrage of Russian strikes.
The £50 million package of defence aid comprises 125 anti-aircraft guns and technology to counter deadly Iranian-supplied drones, including dozens of radars and anti-drone electronic warfare capability. It follows more than 1,000 new anti-air missiles announced by the Defence Secretary earlier this month.
In the last week, Ukrainian forces say Russia has rained down more than 148 missile strikes on critical infrastructure, leaving approximately 10 million people without power. The UK is also bolstering our training offer to Ukrainian’s armed forces, sending expert army medics and engineers to the region to offer specialised support.
In Kyiv, the Prime Minister laid flowers at a memorial for the war dead and lit a candle at a memorial for victims of the Holodomor famine, before meeting first responders at a fire station.
The team of emergency responders described their harrowing work rescuing survivors from the rubble and fighting fires in the aftermath of Russian airstrikes and mortar attacks.
He also saw captured Iranian-made drones which have been used to target and bomb civilians in recent months.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “I am proud of how the UK stood with Ukraine from the very beginning. And I am here today to say the UK and our allies will continue to stand with Ukraine, as it fights to end this barbarous war and deliver a just peace.
“While Ukraine’s armed forces succeed in pushing back Russian forces on the ground, civilians are being brutally bombarded from the air. We are today providing new air defence, including anti-aircraft guns, radar and anti-drone equipment, and stepping up humanitarian support for the cold, hard winter ahead.
“It is deeply humbling to be in Kyiv today and to have the opportunity to meet those who are doing so much, and paying so high a price, to defend the principles of sovereignty and democracy.”
Recognising that Ukrainians face a very difficult winter, with widespread blackouts of destruction of homes, schools and hospitals, the Prime Minister has also confirmed £12 million for the World Food Programme’s response, as well as £4 million for the International Organisation for Migration.
The funding will help provide generators, shelter, water repairs and mobile health clinics. The UK is also sending tens of thousands of extreme cold winter kits for Ukrainian troops.
Working with the Government of Ukraine, the UK has identified an initial eight construction projects to be supported by UK Export Finance, helping to repair Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and lay the foundations for economic recovery. The projects include six bridges and two housing projects, including a development in Bucha for some 2,250 residents.
National two-minute silence takes place to remember those who died in conflict
Members of the Royal Family and senior politicians will lay wreaths at the Cenotaph
Around 10,000 Royal British Legion veterans will march past the Cenotaph to pay tribute to their fallen comrades
A national two-minute silence led by His Majesty The King will take place across the UK today as the National Service of Remembrance at the Cenotaph takes place to remember all those who have died in conflict since the First World War.
As well as the two-minute silence taking place at 11am, wreaths will be laid by Members of the Royal Family, senior politicians and faith representatives at the Cenotaph.
Approximately 10,000 Royal British Legion veterans, representing 300 different Armed Forces and civilian organisations, will take part in the March Past; they will be joined by an estimated 10,000 members of the public who will line Whitehall to watch the service.
Among those marching will be 100-year-old Second World War veterans and those who served in recent conflicts including in Afghanistan. 400 members of the South Atlantic Medal Association will march past the Cenotaph to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Falklands War. They will also be joined by bereaved family members with the youngest marcher aged eight years old.
For those unable to travel to London for the National Service of Remembrance at the Cenotaph or to attend their local Remembrance Sunday service, the national event will be broadcast live on BBC One, Sky and ITV as well as on YouTube.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “This year more than ever, we are reminded of the huge debt of gratitude we owe those who lay down their lives to protect their country.
“As we fall silent together on Remembrance Sunday, we will honour the memories of the men and women we have lost and pay tribute to the brave soldiers of Ukraine as they continue their fight for freedom.
Culture Secretary Michelle Donelan said: “Remembrance Sunday gives us the chance to come together to remember all those who have fought for the freedoms we enjoy today. This year’s service is particularly poignant as we think of our friends and allies in Ukraine.
“I would encourage everyone, no matter where they are, to come together in silence at 11am to remember and give thanks for the sacrifices made by so many.”
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: “Remembrance Sunday is a time to reflect upon the sacrifices made by our veterans and service personnel on operations around the world. We must never forget those who gave their lives in defence of our values and our great nation.
“All of us will also be thinking of those brave Ukrainians who are fighting for their very own survival to defend freedom and democracy for all, just as the UK and Commonwealth soldiers did in both world wars.
“Today, members of the UK Armed Forces at Cenotaph and around the world will come together to honour all those who came before them.”
The Royal British Legion’s Director of Remembrance, Philippa Rawlinson said: “As we come together on Remembrance Sunday, we pay tribute to Her Late Majesty The Queen, The Royal British Legion’s Patron of 70 years and longest serving Commander-in-Chief of the British military.
“Her Late Majesty was dedicated to duty and epitomised the service and commitment shown by our Armed Forces community, thousands of who will march past the Cenotaph where she laid her wreath each year.
“Her Late Majesty’s deep bond with the military lives on with His Majesty The King and The Royal Family. Similar Royal British Legion ceremonies will be uniting communities across the nation in Remembrance and today is an opportunity for us all to take a moment to reflect on the sacrifices of all those who serve, past and present.”
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will join the Rt Hon Lord Provost of the City of Edinburgh Robert Aldridge, as well as veterans, and military personnel to remember the fallen in Edinburgh this morning.
The RAF Central Scotland Pipes and Drums led a parade from Edinburgh Castle to the City Chambers at 10:30am, followed by veterans, the Band of the Royal Regiment of Scotland, and representatives from the three Armed Services.
The One O’Clock Gun will fire at 11am from Edinburgh Castle, as the country falls silent for two minutes in memory of those who have fallen in conflicts over the years.
Legion Scotland National Padre Revd Dr Karen Campbell will then lead a short service. Wreaths will then be laid at the Stone of Remembrance by the First Minister, the Lord Provost, Baroness Goldie, Minister of State for Defence, Chiefs of all three Armed Services, veterans associations and others.
Commemorations will also be taking place across Scotland on Sunday morning.
This week has seen the appointment of a new Prime Minister, but in terms of economic news it has been a far less tumultuous week than recent ones (writes EMMA CONGREVE, Deputy Director and Senior Knowledge Exchange Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute).
Both the UK and Scottish governments announced the postponement of planned budget events. The Scottish Government’s decision not to go ahead with its ‘Emergency Budget Review’ at this time was not surprising. However, there are questions around what budgetary changes will be made this financial year in response to inflation’s impact on public spending.
As highlighted in an article last week, that includes understanding the detail of employability cuts (announced back in September), and indeed the detail of where else the Scottish Government is eking out savings. We need better transparency over how these decisions have been made and the impact on people providing services and the people they support.
If/when the Emergency Budget Review goes ahead is unclear. It may well end up being rolled into the draft Scottish budget announcement for 2023/24, due on the 15th December.
The UK government’s decision to postpone its planned fiscal statement (now rebranded as the Autumn Statement) from the 31st October to the 17th November is justifiable given the prime ministerial change (and in light of the decisions of the incoming Chancellor Jeremy Hunt the previous week).
Delaying the fiscal statement should also mean that the outlook for borrowing costs should be slightly better than it would have been had the statement been published next week since it shifts the reference period for bond yields that the OBR will use in its forecasts.
The publication of the UK Autumn Statement on 17th November means there will be a window of four weeks between the UK Autumn Statement and the Scottish budget on 15th December.
Assuming the UK Autumn Statement is definitive about spending plans in 2023/24, this should provide adequate time for the Scottish government to prepare its 2023/24 by the 15th. There is little scope to push back the draft budget statement into January due to the timescales required to get the Budget Bill through the Scottish Parliament in time for the 2023/24 financial year.
With an expectation of further fiscal tightening by the UK government, the Scottish Government will be braced for more difficult decisions.
Until we see the UK Autumn Statement however, it remains very uncertain how the UK government will prioritise different tax and spending measures, and over what timescales, and hence the implications for the Scottish budget in 2023/24 and beyond.
As always, we will be looking for evidence-based rationales and transparency in how spend has been prioritised from both governments; a subject we will no doubt return to in the coming weeks.
More detail on the impact of the cost of living crisis
As we discussed last week, CPI inflation for September was estimated at 10.1%. This week, the ONS have published supplementary analysis on how rising prices are affecting adults across Great Britain.
9 in 10 people surveyed reported that their cost of living had increased compared to a year ago and the survey asked questions on the extent to which this had impacted their lives.
Around 45% of adults in both GB and Scotland reported finding energy bills somewhat or very difficult to pay and around 30% of GB and 25% of Scottish adults reported finding rent and mortgage payments difficult to afford.
Other breakdowns by protected characteristics showed different experiences. For example, 55% of disabled people, 69% of Black or Black British adults, 59% of Asian or Asian British adults and 60% of renters were finding it somewhat or very difficult to pay energy bills (compared to the population average of around 45%).
These differences are likely to be linked to socioeconomic status: around half of those with a personal income of less than £20,000 per year said they found it difficult to afford their energy bills which reduced to 23% for those with a personal income of more than £50,000.
This week, the ONS also published a ‘highly experimental’ (their words!) analysis of low-cost groceries. For half of the sampled items, the average lowest price goods increased at a faster rate than the official CPI inflation measure for food and non-alcoholic beverages over the past year.
The highest rising prices were for vegetable oil (65%); pasta (60%) and tea (46%). Bread and milk were among other items that rose by more than the CPI average.
The pressures are also of course affecting businesses. The latest Scottish Government analysis of the BICS survey found that 49.8% of businesses reported that the prices of materials, goods and services bought in September 2022 were higher than in August 2022. Around 60% of businesses reported absorbing these costs, and around 35% reported that at least some of the price increases were passed on to customers.
Going back to the previous survey of GB adults, the most significant behavioural changes reported were ‘spending less on non-essentials’ (62% of adults in GB and in Scotland) and ‘using less fuel such as gas and electricity in my home’ (52% of GB adults, 57% in Scotland). If the latter prevails into the colder season, there is of course a concern that this will have serious adverse impacts on health.
Upcoming webinar for your diary
On the subject of health impacts, the Fraser of Allander Institute, in collaboration with MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit at the University of Glasgow and the Health Foundation are holding a webinar on the 15th November (3 – 4.30pm) to discuss trends in health and the socioeconomic drivers of health in Scotland.
Our report on the trends in socioeconomic determinants of health over the past twenty years will be out in the coming weeks.
Click here to sign up to the webinar to hear all about it.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s statement on the steps of Downing Street
Good morning, I have just been to Buckingham Palace and accepted His Majesty The King’s invitation to form a government in his name.
It is only right to explain why I am standing here as your new Prime Minister.
Right now our country is facing a profound economic crisis.
The aftermath of Covid still lingers.
Putin’s war in Ukraine has destabilised energy markets and supply chains the world over.
I want to pay tribute to my predecessor Liz Truss, she was not wrong to want to improve growth in this country, it is a noble aim.
And I admired her restlessness to create change.
But some mistakes were made.
Not borne of ill will or bad intentions. Quite the opposite, in fact. But mistakes nonetheless.
And I have been elected as leader of my party, and your Prime Minister, in part, to fix them.
And that work begins immediately.
I will place economic stability and confidence at the heart of this government’s agenda.
This will mean difficult decisions to come.
But you saw me during Covid, doing everything I could, to protect people and businesses, with schemes like furlough.
There are always limits, more so now than ever, but I promise you this
I will bring that same compassion to the challenges we face today.
The government I lead will not leave the next generation, your children and grandchildren, with a debt to settle that we were too weak to pay ourselves.
I will unite our country, not with words, but with action.
I will work day in and day out to deliver for you.
This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level.
Trust is earned. And I will earn yours.
I will always be grateful to Boris Johnson for his incredible achievements as Prime Minister, and I treasure his warmth and generosity of spirit.
And I know he would agree that the mandate my party earned in 2019 is not the sole property of any one individual, it is a mandate that belongs to and unites all of us.
And the heart of that mandate is our manifesto.
I will deliver on its promise.
A stronger NHS.
Better schools.
Safer streets.
Control of our borders.
Protecting our environment.
Supporting our armed forces.
Levelling up and building an economy that embraces the opportunities of Brexit, where businesses invest, innovate, and create jobs.
I understand how difficult this moment is.
After the billions of pounds it cost us to combat Covid, after all the dislocation that caused in the midst of a terrible war that must be seen successfully to its conclusions I fully appreciate how hard things are.
And I understand too that I have work to do to restore trust after all that has happened.
All I can say is that I am not daunted. I know the high office I have accepted and I hope to live up to its demands.
But when the opportunity to serve comes along, you cannot question the moment, only your willingness.
So I stand here before you ready to lead our country into the future.
To put your needs above politics.
To reach out and build a government that represents the very best traditions of my party.
Together we can achieve incredible things.
We will create a future worthy of the sacrifices so many have made and fill tomorrow, and everyday thereafter with hope.
