Tag: opinion poll

Arab citizens still want democracy, according to largest Arab opinion poll

The results of the largest opinion poll of its kind in the Arab world have been released by The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS) with almost 33 thousand respondents across 14 Arab countries and more than 900 researchers taking part.

The poll touched upon the issues facing Arabs living within the region as well as their opinions on global events. Given the contentious nature of the region’s democratization efforts and political culture, Israeli-Arab relations, Russia’s war on Ukraine and more, the findings of this year’s poll highlight significant trends in Arab public opinion. The following are some of the report’s key findings.

The full report is attached.

DEMOCRACY AND STATE INSTITUTIONS

There is overwhelming support for democracy in the Arab World, with 72% of respondents supporting a democratic system. This support for democracy has been a constant in every Arab Index survey since its launch in 2011, demonstrating an established belief in democracy.

Citizens’ confidence in state institutions varies. Parliaments and legislative councils received the least amount of confidence among Arab citizens, at a rate of 47%.

Arab public opinion is almost unanimous that financial and administrative corruption is widespread in their countries to varying degrees, at a rate of 87%.

Just over a third of respondents (34%) said that their countries apply the law equally among citizens, while 39% think that they do not enjoy full equality, with their countries favoring some groups over others. Almost a quarter of respondents (24%) think that their countries do not apply the law equally at all.

ARAB-ISRAELI RELATIONS

84% of citizens oppose their home countries’ recognition of Israel, citing political reasons as opposed to religious or cultural ones. This opposition remains overwhelmingly high despite recent normalization agreements with Israel by UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.

The majority of Saudi respondents who answered this question rejected recognition of Israel (38%), despite a high rate of nonresponse to this question (57%).

A vast majority of respondents consider the policies of Israel (84%) and the United States (78%) a threat to the security and stability of the Arab region, while 57% of respondents consider Iranian and Russian policies a threat to the region.

RUSSIA’S WAR ON UKRAINE

More than a third of respondents (44%) agreed that Russia’s declaration of war on Ukraine was unjustified, compared to 19% who said it was justified, and over a third (37%) said they do not know or declined to answer. Those who said it is unjustified deemed Russia’s declaration of war as an act of aggression, interference with the sovereignty of another state, and occupation of land.

SOCIAL MEDIA

Almost all (98%) internet users in the Arab World have accounts on social media platforms. More respondents had Facebook accounts than any other social media platform, except in the Gulf, where more (77%), had Twitter accounts.

A majority of Arab Citizens (75%) use social media to obtain news and political information. More than half of the users (51%) express their views on political events.

57% of social media users said that they do not trust information and news circulated on social media, a notable increase from the last AOI survey.

Interaction and participation with political issues among Arab social media users is divided: while 48% interact with or participate in political issues, 48% do not.

The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS) is an independent research institute for the study of the social sciences and humanities, with particular emphasis on the applied social sciences. It seeks to examine the key issues afflicting the Arab world, governments, and communities; to analyze social, economic, and cultural policies; and to provide rational political analysis on the region.

Report-results-in-briefDownload

Ipsos MORI poll: SNP absolute majority is on a knife edge

“all the parties still have something to play for tomorrow”

Ipsos MORI’s final 2021 Scottish Parliament election poll for STV News indicates that the SNP is on course to win significantly more of the vote than any other party at the election on 6th May.

Our headline estimate of voting intention on the constituency vote is:

  • SNP: 50% (-3 compared with our last poll of 29 March – 4 April)
  • Scottish Labour: 22% (+4)
  • Scottish Conservatives: 20% (unchanged)
  • Scottish Liberal Democrats: 6% (unchanged)
  • Scottish Green Party: 2% (unchanged)
  • Other: 1% (unchanged)

Our headline estimate of voting intention on the regional list vote is:

  • SNP: 39% (+1)
  • Scottish Conservatives: 23% (+2)
  • Scottish Labour: 18% (unchanged)
  • Scottish Green Party: 12% (unchanged)
  • Scottish Liberal Democrats: 4% (-2)
  • The Alba Party: 2% (-1)
  • Other: 2% (unchanged)

These findings confirm that the SNP is going into Thursday’s election in a very strong position. However, it is not possible to predict with confidence on the basis of these results whether the SNP will definitely win an outright majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament.

This is both because specific local circumstances will play a role and because all polls are subject to a margin of error, which could easily be the difference between the SNP gaining an outright majority and falling short of this.

When it comes to the contest for second place, Labour and the Conservatives look to be going into the constituency vote contest neck and neck. The Conservatives look slightly more comfortably ahead on regional list voting intention (23%, compared with 18% for Labour).

The Greens, on 12%, look set to increase their share of the regional vote on the 6% they achieved in 2016. As in 2016, they look likely to finish ahead of the Liberal Democrats in share of regional list votes. 

The Alba Party, on just 2%, may struggle to gain enough votes to return any MSPs (although this is, of course, dependent on whether they secure a higher level than this in specific regions).

Among likely voters, 12% say they may still change their mind before they cast their constituency vote. 

This rises to 21% of Labour supporters who may change their mind, while SNP and Conservative supporters are more likely to say that they have definitely decided to vote for their party (91% and 90%).

Similarly, 14% say they may still change their mind before they cast their regional list vote. 

15% of Labour supporters, 11% of Conservative supporters and 9% of SNP supporters say they may change their mind on the list vote

Three quarters (74%) of SNP constituency voters say they will vote ‘both votes SNP’ by casting their regional list vote for the party as well. 

The remaining 26% are most likely to say they will cast their list vote for the Scottish Green Party (18% of SNP constituency voters say this), with a small minority saying they will vote for The Alba Party (4%) or Scottish Labour (3%) on the regional list.

The Scottish public are evenly split on independence. Among those likely to vote in an independence referendum, 50% say they would vote Yes while 50% would vote No.

Chart: Support for Scottish independence: Change over time - Ipsos MORI

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, commented: “Whether there will be a SNP majority or not hangs in the balance.

“The election result may come down to how the parties perform in a small number of key marginal seats, as well as in the regional vote, which is likely to prove particularly important in determining which party is in second place.

“With a relatively high percentage of voters still saying they’ve not definitely decided, all the parties still have something to play for tomorrow.”