Covid cases continue to rise

LATEST UPDATE PUBLISHED 31st AUGUST

This fortnightly flu and COVID-19 report brings together the latest surveillance data along with the latest public health advice.

COVID-19 surveillance up until end of week 34

COVID-19 case rates continued to increase this week compared to our previous report. A total 9.7% of 4,288 respiratory specimens reported through the Respiratory DataMart System were identified as COVID-19. This is compared to 7.1% of 4,303 from the previous report.

The overall COVID-19 hospital admission rate for week 34 was 3.37 per 100,000 population, an increase from 3.00 per 100,000 in the previous report.

Intensive care units (ICU) admission rates have increased to 0.11 per 100,000 compared to 0.08 per 100,000 in the previous report.

Hospital admission rates have increased in most age groups.

Those aged 85 years and over continue to have the highest hospital admission rates; these have increased to 34.15 per 100,000 from 32.63 per 100,000 in the previous report. Admission rates among those aged 75 to 84 years have increased to 17.66 per 100,000 from 15.71 per 100,000 in the previous report.

Dr Mary Ramsay, Head of Immunisation at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), said: “Over the last 2 weeks, we have seen an increase in some COVID-19 indicators. This includes hospital admissions and ICU admissions, but these have all stabilised over the last week. While case rates have continued to rise, rates remain low overall, and we will continue to monitor them closely.

“If you are experiencing any symptoms of respiratory illness, you should avoid mixing with other people, especially those who are vulnerable. This will help combat the spread of COVID-19.

“This week, the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) announced that the winter vaccination programme has been brought forward as a precautionary measure to deliver greater protection against the potential impact of BA.2.86 variant. We urge everyone eligible to take up the vaccine when offered.”

New BA.2.86 variant found in Scotland

Scotland has detected its first case of a new Covid variant that is being closely monitored by the World Health Organization.

The BA.2.86 variant is not yet considered a variant of concern but it has a high number of mutations.

Scotland’s winter vaccination programme starts on 4 September, but in response to the new cases PHS and Scottish government are now working to bring winter vaccinations forward for those at the highest risk of becoming seriously ill from flu and Covid-19.

Covid: New variant discovered in UK

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has published an initial risk assessment of the SARS-CoV-2 variant BA.2.86.

This variant was detected in the UK yesterday (Friday 18 August), and has also been identified in Israel, Denmark and the US. It has been designated as V-23AUG-01 for the purpose of UKHSA monitoring.

The newly identified variant has a high number of mutations and is genomically distant from both its likely ancestor, BA.2, and from currently circulating XBB-derived variants.

There is currently one confirmed case in the UK in an individual with no recent travel history, which suggests a degree of community transmission within the UK. Identifying the extent of this transmission will require further investigation.

There is currently insufficient data to assess the relative severity or degree of immune escape compared to other currently-circulating variants.

Dr Meera Chand, Deputy Director, UKHSA said: “V-23AUG-01 was designated as a variant on 18 August 2023 on the basis of international transmission and significant mutation of the viral genome. This designation allows us to monitor it through our routine surveillance processes.

“We are aware of one confirmed case in the UK. UKHSA is currently undertaking detailed assessment and will provide further information in due course.”

UKHSA will continue to monitor the situation closely and will publish the results of our analysis when they are available.

Covid: ‘Deep concern’ over new variant sparks Africa travel curbs

SIX COUNTRIES ADDED TO RED LIST

All travellers returning to Scotland from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Zimbabwe and Botswana will be required to self-isolate and take two PCR tests from 12:00 on Friday (26 November), regardless of their vaccination status.

Managed Quarantine accommodation will be stood up to cater for any arrivals from these countries. This will apply to all arrivals from 04:00 on Saturday (27 November).

The decision follows concerns about cases of the emerging B.1.1.529 variant cases in the south of Africa, given concerns over a high number of mutations and the effectiveness of vaccines against it.

Anyone who has arrived in Scotland from any of the six countries in the previous 10 days will need to enter Managed Quarantine hotel on arrival to Scotland and will need a day two and day eight coronavirus (COVID-19) PCR test regardless of their vaccination status.

Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero, Energy and Transport Michael Matheson said: “International travel restrictions are necessary to protect the greater public health. While many restrictions have been significantly relaxed – largely thanks to the success of the Scottish Government’s COVID-19 vaccine roll out – we have always said it may be necessary to quickly impose fresh measures to protect public health in Scotland.”

UK Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Sajid Javid said: “As part of our close surveillance of variants across the world, we have become aware of the spread of a new potentially concerning variant, which UKHSA has designated a Variant under Investigation.

“We are taking precautionary action to protect public health and the progress of our vaccine rollout at a critical moment as we enter winter, and we are monitoring the situation closely.

“I want to pay tribute to our world-leading scientists who are working constantly to keep our country safe, and I urge everyone to keep doing their bit by the getting the jab and following public health guidance.”

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said: “We’ve always maintained public safety is our number one priority, which is why we’ve kept in place measures which allow us to protect the UK from new variants.

“We’re taking this early precautionary action now to protect the progress made across the country, and will continue to keep a close eye on the situation as we continue into the winter.”

Dr Jenny Harries, UKHSA Chief Executive, said: “Scientists at UKHSA are in constant close collaboration with colleagues around the world to identify and assess variants as soon as they emerge.

“This is the most significant variant we have encountered to date and urgent research is underway to learn more about its transmissibility, severity and vaccine-susceptibility. The results of these investigations will determine what public health actions may limit the impact of B.1.1.529. “

“This is a clear reminder to everyone that this pandemic is not over, and we all have a responsibility to do what we can to limit transmission and reduce the infection rate and prevent the emergence of new variants.

“This means coming forward for vaccination as soon as possible and following public health advice. Wear a face covering in crowded places where it’s difficult to avoid coming into close contact with others, try to meet people in well-ventilated areas and seek a test immediately if you have symptoms.”

The first genomes of this variant were uploaded to the international GISAID database on 22 November. Genomes have now been uploaded from South Africa, Botswana and Hong Kong but the extent of spread is not yet determined.

The UKHSA produces risk assessments of the spread of Variants of Concern or Variants under Investigation internationally.

These risk assessments cover a range of factors for each country including assessment of surveillance and sequencing capability, available surveillance and genome sequencing data, evidence of in-country community transmission of COVID-19 variants, evidence of exportation of new variants to the UK or other countries and travel connectivity with the UK.

More information on international travel and quarantine

Coronavirus: ‘We MUST stay home’

Chief Medical Officer, Professor Chris Whitty writes about the UK’s battle with Covid-19

We have faced several grave moments during our battle against coronavirus. But right now, the country is perhaps facing the most serious yet.

The new, more transmissible variant of this disease is spreading rapidly across the country and having tragic consequences.

On Monday the 4 UK Chief Medical Officers and the NHS Medical Director recommended raising the national alert level to the maximum of level 5 for the first time.

This means that without further action there is a material risk of our healthcare services being overwhelmed within 21 days.

Since then the situation has deteriorated further.

Hospitals are always busy in the winter but the NHS in some parts of the country is currently facing the most dangerous situation anyone can remember. If the virus continues on its current trajectory many hospitals will be in real difficulties, and very soon.

This means that the time people wait for care will continue to increase to potentially unsafe levels, hospitals won’t have room to take redirected emergency cases in regional networks, staff to patient ratios which are already stretched will become unacceptable even in places likes intensive care.

There will be avoidable deaths. NHS staff are doing their absolute best, and working remarkably; we all owe them a huge debt of gratitude, but even they have limits.

The public have made an extraordinary effort so far. Of course we are all tired of restrictions, but we need to find the collective strength to get through this critical stage and save as many lives as we can.

The advice right now is unambiguous: to drive the numbers down, we must stay home except for work, exercise and essential activities. Every unnecessary interaction you have could be the link in a chain of transmission which has a vulnerable person at the end.

These restrictions will not last forever. Science has delivered new vaccines, drugs and tests, with more on the way, in record time. People will be reunited. Vaccines and new treatments offer us hope and a clear way out. But we are not there yet, and should not act as if we are.

We still have weeks to go before vaccines will start reducing COVID deaths and, some weeks later, the number of people being hospitalised. We cannot afford to let our justified optimism for the future come at the expense of difficult action today.

That means for now staying home and avoiding all unnecessary contacts. By following the rules, we will save lives and help normal life return more swiftly.