Communities across Scotland will be able to prepare and take action sooner to protect themselves from flooding as a new three-day Scottish Flood Forecast launches.
Developed by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and the Met Office, the Scottish Flood Forecast provides the earliest indication possible of when and where flooding is expected over the next three days, and whether the source is from rivers, surface water or the sea.
In addition, the colour coded map on SEPA’s website describes the potential impacts on communities and links to advice and information on what protective action people can take if required. It also offers reassurance when significant flooding is not expected.
The Scottish Flood Forecast was developed following extensive research involving the public, community flood groups, emergency responders, partner organisations and both SEPA and Met Office employees. Feedback from more than 200 users was also gathered during a trial phase from May last year.
Gail Walker is from the Tillicoultry, Devonside and Coalsnaughton Flood Group (Tideco): “The Scottish Flood Forecast is an important information source for Tideco. Advance warning of flooding supports us to work out how we can best respond to weather events with the resources we have.
“Tillicoultry has a number of flooding issues and is a known flooding ‘hot spot’. This can include surface water and sewage flooding within residential streets, as well as flooding from the Tillicoultry Burn and the River Devon, which both have a history of having flooded out homes in the past. Whilst we have some flood defence measures in place, we still have areas that are vulnerable.
“The Scottish Flood Forecast is a useful trigger for the group to plan, prepare and to make sure volunteers are in areas where we know there is the potential for flooding. The key role of Tideco is to warn, inform and offer support to those at risk of flooding or who may have been impacted.”
The forecast is produced every morning, 365 days a year, and published on SEPA’s website. It is an additional tool for the public to use alongside the current Floodline service, which issues shorter notice Regional Flood Alerts and Local Flood Warnings to those signed up, 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
Environment Minister Mairi McAllan said: “Flooding can cause utter devastation to people and communities, as we saw again in several parts of the country in November and December last year.
“The impact of the climate emergency, across the world and here in Scotland, means that flooding will be more frequent. That is why it’s so important that we increase community resilience and take action to manage flood risk.
“The Scottish Flood Forecast will give people a three day look ahead to help make plans for travel and ensure safety and is a product of the excellent partnership working between SEPA and the Met Office.
“This new three-day forecast is a helpful addition to the other important services, such as Floodline, that the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service provides.”
Nicole Paterson, SEPA Chief Executive, added: “The Scottish Flood Forecast has been the biggest change to SEPA’s flood warning service in the last decade and is a major step forward in helping communities become more resilient to flooding.
“This winter we were reminded why that is so important, as parts of Scotland experienced damaging impacts from flooding – notably Aberdeenshire and Angus in November and Dumfries and Galloway in December.
“While the Scottish Flood Forecast currently displays information at a national level, work will continue on the forecast to gradually introduce localised information.”
Ian Cameron, Met Office Markets Director, said: “Every day the Met Office and SEPA teams work in close partnership to publish the Scottish Flood Forecast, providing guidance to the flood forecasting team at the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service (SFFS) with the latest weather information.
“Working together in the SFFS Partnership enables the Met Office and SEPA to achieve more together and create a more resilient environment.”
High winds, heavy rain and snow melt on Thursday, 5 January, into Friday, 6 January, are likely to cause localised disruption due to coastal wave overtopping, surface water and river flooding.
The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), Scotland’s flood forecasting and warning authority, is urging people to keep updated, be mindful of potential disruption, and plan ahead for any travel.
In coastal areas, windy conditions particularly around high tides could also lead to spray and overtopping. Localised Flood Warnings have been issued for parts of Orkney and Comhairle nan Eilean Siar, where large waves and strong winds could create impacts such as flooding of causeways, promenades, and roads.
Rainfall, combined with melting snow, is likely to see minor river and surface water flooding, across much of Scotland. Regional Flood Alerts are in place and, whilst peak river levels are expected to be well below those experienced last week, given the saturated nature of the ground, minor disruption is likely on some transport routes with isolated property flooding in places.
SEPA continues to monitor the situation and will issue further flood messages as required. People are encouraged to sign up to the Floodline service to receive updates for where they live, or where they’re travelling through, directly to their phone. People can also check Flood Updates – SEPA Floodline for all the latest updates.
Staying informed
Check the latest information on SEPA’s regional Flood Alerts and local Flood Warnings at sepa.org.uk/floodupdates.
Don’t walk through flood water – 15cm of fast flowing water could be enough to knock you off your feet and hazards can be hidden under the water.
Drive with care, and do not travel through deep fast flowing water. It only takes 30cm of fast flowing water to move an average family sized car.
If you’re walking beside rivers be extra careful of wet footpaths and small watercourses.
Consider deploying flooding protection products if required.
What’s the difference between a Flood Alert and a Flood Warning?
We use forecast weather information provided by the Met Office combined with our own observation of rainfall and river levels and advanced hydrological modelling to provide advance warning of flooding.
Regional Flood Alerts are early advice that flooding is possible across a wider geographical area. The purpose of the Alerts is to make people aware of the risk of flooding and be prepared. We normally issue them 12 to 24 hours in advance of the possibility of flooding.
Flood Warnings are more locally specific and are issued for areas where we have gauges on rivers to measure the exact river height. They are issued at shorter notice when we are more certain that a specific area will be affected.
The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) is demonstrating its commitment to tackling climate change by shifting focus from ambition and targets to action and innovation.
Climate change won’t wait, and it is widely accepted that it now affects every country on the planet. Extreme weather events and rising sea levels are having a detrimental impact on communities, and Scotland is no exception. Flooding in particular remains a growing threat in cities, towns and villages here. The risk to homes and businesses can be severe and the damage devastating.
In announcing her Resource Spending Review last month, Scottish Government Finance Secretary Kate Forbes revealed tackling climate change as a top priority, as well as the need for digital reform – both of which SEPA is focused firmly on.
SEPA is Scotland’s national flood forecasting, warning and strategic flood risk management authority. In 2011, the organisation began operating the Floodline direct warning service to warn the public when flooding is likely to occur.
Those signed up can receive regional flood alerts and local flood warnings 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. However, as the frequency of flooding increases with climate change, so too does the demand for more information sooner.
Project Manager at SEPA, Laura Paterson, was part of the team faced with addressing this around three years ago. She said: “I began speaking to people across the country who were victims of flooding and heard from them why it was important to receive earlier notice where possible.
“One woman told me about the fear and panic she felt when she could see the water rising outside her home. A man described a time where he was frantically knocking on neighbours’ doors to help them escape during flooding, and another revealed how he would stay awake all night just in case water came into his house. It was clear to me from the start that flood forecasting was not just about convenience, it was about people’s lives.”
More user research was carried out, which revealed a need for clearer geographical information and reassurance when flooding is not expected. Workshops were hosted with the general public and community groups to involve them in the design of a new forecasting product in partnership with the Met Office, which would be available alongside the current Floodline service.
After developing customer journeys and prototypes, a test version of the new Scottish Flood Forecast was launched on SEPA’s website in May this year to give communities warning of flooding three days in advance.
The colour coded map is reviewed and published every morning and describes what the impacts of any flooding are expected to be. Information and advice is also offered on what steps people can take to protect their homes and their businesses.
Laura added, “This project has been the biggest change of SEPA’s flood warning service since we started issuing direct messaging in 2011, giving people the earliest indication possible of when flooding is likely and a better chance to take action.
“I am delighted it has reached this milestone, especially as the pandemic and cyber-attack on SEPA slowed a lot of work down. Despite these challenges, the people this service is designed to help remained at the forefront of all our minds and kept momentum up within the project team.
“This is the first step on a journey to helping communities become more resilient to flooding and climate change. The Scottish Flood Forecast is currently being tested at a national level, but the aim is for the final version to display more localised information, which we know will make the biggest difference to people’s lives.”
While the new Scottish Flood Forecast is piloted this year, work continues on other innovative projects within SEPA’s flooding team including a new Future Flood and Incident Messaging Service (FFIMS). This extension of the current Floodline system will incorporate other hazard notifications for communities and businesses across Scotland and make use of more digital technology to issue alerts such as social media and Google.
New pluvial flood maps, which show surface water flooding, are also in development for 2023-24. They have been publicly available on the SEPA website since 2013, however a 2018 National Flood Risk Assessment identified surface water as the biggest flood risk affecting Scotland. The new maps will provide a complete refresh using the most up-to-date data on current and future rainfall projections, ensuring maximum confidence of where surface water flooding is likely.
Laura concluded: “All of these changes are driven by the need to respond to climate change and support Scottish communities to do the same. I joined SEPA more than ten years ago to work on projects just like this, which are meaningful, worthwhile and provide a valuable service to people.
“Our climate is changing for the worst. I have a ten-year-old daughter, and I know that our children are worried about the way it is going. I’m thinking of her and the future.
“If Scotland is to be a successful country where our communities and businesses flourish, it is vital that we continue to understand the potential implications of climate change for flood risk and create tools which will ensure the resilience and wellbeing of everyone affected.”
13 Regional Flood Alerts and 22 Local Flood Warnings Now in Force.
From late Sunday across to Tuesday, West, Central, Tayside and Northern Scotland will see persistent, often heavy rain and winds, with significant flooding impacts possible, particularly around the Spey, Forth and Tay and minor impacts possible across the broader areas.
Take care when walking or travelling near coastal areas, including the Western Isles and Orkney, due to surge, strong winds and wave overtopping.
Ruth Ellis, Duty Flood Manager for the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, said: “From late Sunday across to Tuesday, West, Central, Tayside and Northern Scotland will see persistent, often heavy rain and winds, with significant flooding impacts possible, particularly around the Spey, Forth and Tay and minor impacts possible across the broader areas.
“Take care when walking or travelling near coastal areas, including the Western Isles and Orkney, due to surge, strong winds and wave overtopping.
“13 Regional Flood Alerts and 22 local Flood Warnings are now in place, and people living and working in affected areas are advised to plan their essential journeys and consider the steps they need to take now to be prepared.
“Stay up to date with SEPA’s regional flood alerts and local flood warnings at sepa.org.uk/floodupdates and sign-up for our free Floodline service by calling 0345 988 1188 or by clicking floodlinescotland.org.uk.”
Staying informed
Check the latest information on SEPA’s Regional Flood Alerts and Local Floor Warnings at sepa.org.uk/floodupdates
Don’t walk through flood water – 15cm of fast flowing water could be enough to knock you off your feet and hazards can be hidden under the water.
Drive with care, and do not travel through deep fast flowing water. It only takes 30cm of fast flowing water to move an average family sized car.
If you’re walking beside rivers be extra careful of wet footpaths and possibly small watercourses in spate.
Consider deploying flooding protection products if required.
What’s the difference between a Flood Alert and a Flood Warning?
We use forecast weather information provided by the Met Office combined with our own observation of rainfall and river levels and advanced hydrological modelling to provide advance warning of flooding.
Regional Flood Alerts are early advice that flooding is possible across a wider geographical area. The purpose of the Alerts is to make people aware of the risk of flooding and be prepared. We normally issue them 12 to 24 hours in advance of the possibility of flooding.
Flood Warnings are more locally specific and are issued for areas where we have gauges on rivers to measure the exact river height. They are issued at shorter notice when we are more certain that a specific area will be affected.
The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service (SFFS) is today marking a decade of supporting the nation’s preparedness and response to flooding.
Staffed around the clock 365 days a year, the service has been combining hydrological and meteorological data to provide strengthened flood forecasting for Scotland over the last 10 years, and is a close partnership between The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and the Met Office.
Its team of experts across Scotland has delivered more than 3800 national flood guidance statements. These five day forecasts are issued daily to a range of 230 organisations including emergency services and local authorities, helping emergency responders prepare in advance for the impacts of flooding.
Climate change is likely to bring increased risk of coastal, river and surface water flooding. With sea level rise and more extreme weather, including wetter winters, more intense rainfall and thundery weather in summer, the increasing importance of the service to help Scotland prepare and adapt is clear.
The service has played a critical role in forecasting impacts from some of the most significant weather events of the decade, including storms Desmond and Frank in 2015. These saw SEPA issue its first severe Flood Warning since the formation of the SFFS, and its highest number of Flood Warnings in one day (101 warnings) respectively.
Terry A’Hearn, SEPA CEO, said: “Over the last ten years, the SFFS has proved a vital service to help Scotland prepare in advance for the worst impacts of flooding. Preparation is crucial, as we saw in the last fortnight when towns from Aberdeenshire to the Scottish Borders flooded.
“The threat from flooding is real and growing. As well as posing a risk to properties, infrastructure and our environment, it can pose a serious threat to life. We and our partners at the Met Office, together with flood management authorities, community responders and communities themselves all have key roles to play as Scotland learns to live safely with flooding.”
Over the last 10 years, the Met Office has made continual improvements to the radar network and other weather technology. This enables the SFFS to issue more detailed daily flood guidance, with ever increasing lead-time and confidence.
Met Office Chief Executive Professor Penny Endersby said: “Climate change is not only resulting in a warming climate but also more intense rainfall which has a crucial bearing on the SFFS’s operations. The risk and impacts of flooding are likely to increase over the coming years, meaning we will need to continue to adapt our services.
“Forecasting skills are constantly evolving and developing thanks to world leading, cutting-edge science and technology and as we look to the future it is clear that we will need to continue to work together if we are to ensure that Scotland will continue to stay safe and thrive.”
The service was also recognised by the Royal Meteorological Society for its pioneering work to provide the UK’s first operational 24-hour surface water flood risk forecast during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow.
Showing street-level surface water predictions for the first time, the project was the result of joint research with Scotland’s Centre of Expertise for Waters, CREW, and has helped improve understand of flooding that doesn’t arise from rivers or the sea.
The launch of the SFFS in March 2011 was supported by the Scottish Government.
Kenny Wratten, Chair of the Local Authorities Resilience Group Scotland, said: “Getting that five day forecast of flooding every morning from SFFS helps councils plan and deliver flood mitigation and response.
“The earlier we get an indication of what’s expected and where, the better we and other responders can gear up to make best use of available resource in areas we know are most likely to be affected.
“For councils this might include extra maintenance in trouble spots, considering road closures, the deployment of flood protection measures, and making arrangements to assist people. More than anything it’s about working together using best knowledge to support our communities.”
Paul Laidlaw, Resilience Manager for the Scottish Flood Forum said: “Services from the SFFS are invaluable to the Scottish Flood Forum (SFF), as they help us to work with communities to build actions that help them prepare for flooding.
“The Flood Guidance Statement in particular helps us and other recognised community responders get enough of a heads-up to prepare where flood recovery resources may need to be deployed, to help those impacted.
“It also provides an excellent learning tool for us to help communities develop flood plans and response exercises, which alongside SEPA Flood Warning messages helps them better avoid, reduce or prevent damages that all too often can leave physical and psychological scars.”
In addition to the five-day flood forecast shared with emergency responders and those with flood-risk management duties, plans are also in progress for a public-facing three-day flood forecasting product, being developed in consultation with the public.
SEPA is Scotland’s national flood forecasting, flood warning and strategic flood risk management authority. As well as working in partnership with the Met Office to forecast for flooding, it operates Floodline in Scotland to warn the public and emergency responders when flooding is likely.
It issues regional Flood Alerts – early advice that flooding is possible – across wide geographical areas covering the length and breadth of Scotland. It also issues local Flood Warnings in areas where it has developed river system monitoring and flood risk impact knowledge. These warnings are issued at shorter notice when it is more certain that a specific area will be affected.
Vincent Fitzsimons, SEPA’s Head of Flooding, added: “There are some simple steps you can take to help prepare for flooding, including signing up to Floodline, preparing a flood plan, familiarising yourself with how to shut off energy and water supplies, having key contact numbers to hand and considering the use of flood protection products.
“And when flooding does strike, remember these five important tips;
Do not walk, drive or swim through flood water.
Do avoid any form of direct contact with flood water as it could be contaminated.
Do not use any electrical appliances.
Do move to higher ground and wait for the emergency services to find you.
Do co-operate with emergency services and your local authority who are responsible for co-ordinating relief measures.”
Members of the public can access river level data from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) for the first time since the cyber-attack on 24 December.
The data has remained available to SEPA staff ensuring delivery of nationally important flood forecasting, including Flood Alerts and Warnings, continued throughout. What was not possible was displaying the same information on public web pages.
SEPA’s river gauging network consists of over 350 sites. While between 10 and 15 percent of stations are not displaying data at present, work to bring these back online is progressing and new sites are being added every day. The page is available at sepa.org.uk/waterlevels.
Vincent Fitzsimons, SEPA’s Head of Hydrology, said: “We appreciate how valuable our river level data is, from those planning leisure activities to people looking for additional information during flooding.
“Flood Alerts and Warnings are always the most up-to-date information, but when river levels are very high and warnings are out we know residents use the site to see whether levels upstream are continuing to rise or have started to fall.
“Since the cyber-attack on Christmas Eve our staff have worked as quickly as possible to restore public access, and this is an important step in the restoration of information that we know people use.”
The river level service will still be subject to intermittent interruptions as additional work continues in the background but these will be kept to a minimum as much as possible.
The data download facility, rainfall web pages and historical river and rainfall data are not yet available.
SEPA is working to restore these services as quickly as possible and will continue to provide updates through its weekly service status updates published every Friday at at sepa.org.uk/servicestatus.
