The Prime Minister will host a press conference this afternoon (Monday 12th July) to confirm whether England can move to step 4 of the Roadmap.
Step 4 is expected to begin next Monday – so-called ‘Freedom Day’ (19th July) – if the UK government’s “four tests” for easing Covid restrictions in England have been met.
The Health and Social Care Secretary will announce the plans to parliament.
England’s four tests are:
The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
The Prime Minister is expected to urge the public to remain vigilant and exercise caution, praising the efforts of the country for the progress made so far while warning that the pandemic is not over and that caution will be key in the coming weeks.
The latest data will be presented, with current modelling suggesting that Covid cases will continue to rise as restrictions are eased. Hospitalisations, serious illness and deaths will also continue, albeit at a much lower level than before the vaccination programme.
As of 10th July, a total of 80.3 million vaccine doses have been administered in the UK, with 45.7 million adults receiving a first dose (86.9%) and 34.5 million adults receiving both doses (65.6%).
The move to step 4 was delayed by up to four weeks so every adult could be offered a vaccine. 6.8 million first and second doses have already been administered in England during the delay so far.
The delay has also moved the probable end of restrictions to a point closer to the school summer holidays in England, when transmission is expected to be lower. Reopening at a point later in the year may increase pressure on the NHS because of winter illnesses such as flu
Analysis from Public Health England (PHE) and the University of Cambridge suggests that vaccines have so far prevented an estimated 8.5 million infections and 30,000 deaths in England alone.
Wherever you live, it is vital that people keep coming forward to get both jabs when called, with data from PHE showing COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective against hospitalisation from the Delta variant.
The analysis suggests the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective and the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 92% effective against hospitalisation after two doses.
The vaccination rollout will continue to accelerate by bringing forward second doses for under 40s to eight weeks – meaning the entire population will benefit from maximum protection more quickly.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: “We are tantalisingly close to the final milestone in our roadmap out of lockdown, but the plan to restore our freedoms must come with a warning.
“While the phenomenal vaccine rollout has offered every adult some protection against the virus, and the crucial link between cases, hospitalisations and deaths is weakened, the global pandemic is not over yet.
“Cases will rise as we unlock, so as we confirm our plans today, our message will be clear. Caution is absolutely vital, and we must all take responsibility so we don’t undo our progress, ensuring we continue to protect our NHS.”
The Scottish Cabinet will meet tomorrow to discuss the latest situation in Scotland and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will update parliament on our next steps in the afternoon.
Prime Minister sets out plan to ease restrictions at step 4
COVID restrictions are set to end in England from step 4 of the Roadmap after the Prime Minister set out how life will soon return close to normal.
Social distancing to end, facemasks no longer mandatory, and no limits on gatherings
All venues currently closed can safely reopen with no capacity limits
PM: We must find a new way of living with the virus
COVID restrictions are set to end in England from step 4 of the Roadmap after the Prime Minister set out how life will soon return close to normal.
The decision to open up will be made in a balanced and careful way, with the Prime Minister being clear that people’s personal judgement will now be key in learning to live with the virus.
Subject to a final review of the data next week, legal restrictions will end on Monday 19 July.
Limits on social contact will end, meaning there will be no restrictions on indoor or outdoor gatherings. Weddings, funerals and other life events able to take place without limits or restrictions.
All venues currently closed will be allowed to reopen, including nightclubs, and there will be no legal requirement for table service in hospitality settings.
Face coverings will no longer be legally required in shops, schools, hospitality, or on public transport although guidance will be in place to suggest where people might choose to wear one, such as where you come into contact with people you don’t usually meet in enclosed and crowded places.
The government reviews into social distancing and Covid-status certification have also now concluded. The 1m plus rule will be lifted other than in specific places such as at the border to help manage the risks of new variants coming into the country.
There will be no legal requirement on the use of Covid-status certification as a condition of entry for visitors to any domestic setting.
As a result of the delay to the final step of the roadmap, the vaccination programme has saved thousands more lives by vaccinating millions more people.
Over 79 million vaccine doses have now been administered in the UK, every adult has now been offered at least one dose, and 64% of adults have received two doses.
The government has also today confirmed the rollout will accelerate further, by reducing the vaccine dose interval for under 40s from 12 weeks to 8. This will mean every adult has the chance to have two doses by mid-September.
The Prime Minister made clear that learning to live with the virus meant cases would continue to rise significantly, even if the success of the vaccination programme meant hospitalisations and deaths will rise at a lower level than during previous peaks.
He set out how cases could rise to 50,000 per day by 19 July, with daily hospital admissions and deaths also rising although more slowly.
The guidance to work from home where possible will also end, to allow employers to start planning a safe return to workplaces.
The cap on the number of named visitors for care home residents will be removed from the current maximum of five per resident, although infection prevention and control measures will remain in place to protect the most vulnerable.
While NHS Test and Trace will continue to play an important role in managing the virus, the PM also signalled the government’s intention to move to a new regime whereby fully vaccinated people would no longer need to self-isolate if identified as a contact. Further details will be set out in due course.
The Education Secretary will also update on new measures for schools and colleges later this week, which will minimise further disruption to education but maintain protection for children.
Proof of vaccination or a negative test will still be required for international travel, with the Prime Minister confirming that the Transport Secretary will provide a further update later this week on removing the need for fully vaccinated arrivals from an amber country to isolate.
PM statement at coronavirus press conference: 5 July 2021
I want to set out what our lives would be like from the 19th of this month – which is only a few days away – if and when we move to step 4 – a decision we will finally take on the 12th – and I want to stress from the outset that this pandemic is far from over and it will certainly not be over by 19th.
As we predicted in the roadmap we’re seeing cases rise fairly rapidly – and there could be 50,000 cases detected per day by the 19th and again as we predicted, we’re seeing rising hospital admissions and we must reconcile ourselves sadly to more deaths from Covid.
In these circumstances we must take a careful and a balanced decision. And there is only one reason why we can contemplate going ahead to step 4 – in circumstances where we’d normally be locking down further – and that’s because of the continuing effectiveness of the vaccine roll-out.
When we paused step 4 a few weeks ago, we had two reasons. First, we wanted to get more jabs into people’s arms – and we have, with over 45 million adults now having received a first dose and 33 million a second.
That is a higher proportion of the adult population of any European country except Malta, and our expectation remains that by July 19 every adult will have had the chance to receive a first dose and two thirds will have received their second dose.
And second, we wanted a bit more time to see the evidence that our vaccines have helped to break the link between disease and death. And as the days have gone by it has grown ever clearer that these vaccines are indeed successful with the majority of those admitted to hospital unvaccinated, and Chris and Patrick will show the data highlighting the greatly reduced mortality that the vaccines have achieved.
So, as we come to the fourth step, we have to balance the risks. The risks of the disease which the vaccines have reduced but very far from eliminated. And the risks of continuing with legally enforced restrictions that inevitably take their toll on people’s lives and livelihoods – on people’s health and mental health.
And we must be honest with ourselves that if we can’t reopen our society in the next few weeks, when we will be helped by the arrival of summer and by the school holidays, then we must ask ourselves when will we be able to return to normal?
And to those who say we should delay again; the alternative is to open up in the winter when the virus will have an advantage or not at all this year.
And so again without pre-empting the decision on 12th July, let me set out today our five-point plan for living with Covid in the hope that it will give families and businesses time to prepare.
First, we will reinforce our vaccine wall, reducing the dose interval for under 40s from 12 weeks to 8, so that everyone over 18 should be double jabbed by mid-September, in addition to our Autumn programme of booster vaccines for the most vulnerable.
Second, we will change the basic tools that we have used to control human behaviour.
We will move away from legal restrictions and allow people to make their own informed decisions about how to manage the virus. From Step 4, we will remove all legal limits on the numbers meeting indoors and outdoors.
We will allow all businesses to re-open, including nightclubs. We will lift the limit on named visitors to care homes, and on numbers of people attending concerts, theatre, and sports events.
We will end the 1 metre plus rule on social distancing, and the legal obligation to wear a face covering, although guidance will suggest where you might choose to do so, especially when cases are rising, and where you come into contact with people you don’t normally meet in enclosed places, such as obviously crowded public transport.
It will no longer be necessary for government to instruct people to work from home, so employers will be able to start planning a safe return to the workplace.
There will be no Covid certificate required as a condition of entry to any venue or event, although businesses and events can certainly make use of certification and the NHS app gives you a Covid pass as one way to show your Covid status.
Third, we will continue from Step 4 to manage the virus with a test, trace and isolate system that is proportionate to the pandemic. You will have to self-isolate if you test positive or are told to do so by NHS Test and Trace.
But we are looking to move to a different regime for fully vaccinated contacts of those testing positive, and also for children. And tomorrow the Education Secretary will announce our plans to maintain key protections but remove bubbles and contact isolation for pupils.
Fourth, from Step 4 we will maintain our tough border controls – including the red list – and recognising the protection afforded by two doses of vaccine, we will work with the travel industry towards removing the need for fully vaccinated arrivals to isolate on return from an amber country and the Transport Secretary will provide a further update later this week.
Last, we will continue to monitor the data and retain contingency measures to help manage the virus during higher risk periods, such as the winter.
But we will place an emphasis on strengthened guidance and do everything possible to avoid re-imposing restrictions with all the costs that they bring.
As we set out this new approach, I am mindful that today is the 73rd anniversary of our National Health Service and there could not be a more fitting moment to pay tribute once again to every one of our NHS and social care workers.
And the best thing we can do to repay their courage and dedication right now is protect ourselves and others and to get those jabs whenever our turn comes.
Jonathan Ashworth MP, Labour’s Shadow Health Secretary, responding to the Health Secretary’s statement in the House on the lifting of lockdown restrictions from the 19th July, said: Can I start by paying to tribute, on its 73rd anniversary, to our National Health Service and our extraordinary health and care workforce.
The birthday present the NHS deserves is a fair pay rise not a real terms pay cut for health care workers.
We all want to see restrictions end.
But what he is announcing today isn’t a guarantee that restrictions will end – only what it will look like.
Can he confirm that ending will be based on SAGE advice and the data?
But let’s be clear only 50 per cent of people across England are fully vaccinated and another 17 per cent partially.
Infections continue to rise steeply, hospitalisations are rising.
Inherent in the strategy outlined is an acceptance that infections will surge further, that hospitalisations will increase and we will hit a peak later this summer.
Some of those hospitalised will die.
Thousands – children and younger people – will be left exposed to a virus with no vaccination protection.
Leaving them at risk of long term chronic illness, the personal impacts of which may be felt for years to come.
So as part of his learning to live with Covid strategy: How many deaths does he consider acceptable? How many cases of long Covid does he consider acceptable?
And given we know high circulations of the virus can see it evolve and possibly escape vaccines, what risk assessment has he done of the possibility of a new variant emerging and will he publish it?
The Secretary of State says that every date for unlocking carries risk and we have to learn to live with the virus.
Because we don’t just accept other diseases.
He compares it to flu but flu doesn’t leaves tens of thousands with long term illness.
And we don’t just accept flu, measles, or sexually transmitted infections.
We put in place mitigations so we live in as low a risk way as possible.
Israel has reintroduced its mask mandate because of the Delta variant so why is he planning to bin ours?
Masks don’t restrict freedoms in a pandemic but when so much virus is circulating, they ensure that everyone who goes to the shops or takes public transport can do so safely.
If nobody is masked, Covid risk increases and we’re all less safe; especially those who have been shielding and are anxious.
Why should those who are worried and shielding be shut out of public transport and shops.
That’s not a definition I recognise.
And who else suffers most when masks are removed?
It’s those working in shops, those who drive buses and taxis, it’s low paid workers without access to decent sick pay, many of whom live in overcrowded housing who’ve been savagely disproportionately impacted by this virus from day one.
We heard last week in Greater Manchester that deaths were higher than the average.
So given isolation will still be needed does he think living with the virus means the low paid should be properly supported or does he think they would just game the system as the previous Health Secretary suggested?
Masks are effective because we know the virus is airborne.
He could mitigate further Covid risks by insisting on ventilation standards in premises and crowded buildings. He could offer grants for air filtration systems. Instead all we get is more advice.
Ventilation in buildings and grants to support air filtration systems don’t restrict anyone’s freedoms.
Finally he announced we can all crowd into pubs, meanwhile infection rates in school settings continue to disrupt schooling, with nearly 400,000 children off in one week.
The root cause of this isn’t isolation but transmission.
One in twenty children were off school isolating the week before last.
There are still three weeks of term time left – will he bring back masks in schools, will they be provided with resources for smaller classes, will they get ventilation help and when will adolescents be eligible for vaccination as they are in other countries?
Yesterday he said he believes the best way to protect the nation’s health is to lift all restrictions.
I know he boasts of his student year at Harvard studying pandemics but I think he must have overslept and missed the tutorial on infectious disease control.
Because widespread transmission will not make us healthier.
We’re not out of the woods, we want to see the lockdown end but we need lifesaving mitigation in place.
We still need sick pay, local contact tracing, continued mask wearing, ventilation and support for children to prevent serious illness.
I hope when he returns next week he will have put those measures in place.
Speaking ahead of the Prime Minister’s announcement on the next stage of unlocking, TUC Deputy General Secretary Paul Nowak said: “We all want the economy to unlock as soon as possible. But it is vital that people returning to work have confidence their workplaces are as Covid-secure as possible.
“It is not acceptable for the government to outsource its health and safety responsibilities to individuals and to employers.
“Personal responsibility will have a role to play, but ministers cannot wash their hands of keeping people safe at work.
“With cases rising the government must send out a clear message to employers to play by the rules or face serious action.
“That means publishing clear guidance based on the most up-to-date science and consultations with unions and employers.”
Unite, the UK’s leading union, which represents tens of thousands of public transport workers, is calling on the government to reverse proposals to end the requirement for masks to be worn on buses and trains.
The requirement for passengers to wear masks is particularly sensitive for bus drivers due to the very high numbers who have died of Covid-19.
Unite also believes that restrictions on the maximum capacity of passengers on buses should also remain in place.
Unite national officer for passenger transport Bobby Morton said: “To end the requirement to wear masks on public transport would be an act of gross negligence by the government.
“Rates of infection are continuing to increase and not only does mask wearing reduce transmissions it helps provide reassurance to drivers and to passengers who are nervous about using public transport.
“The idea of personal responsibility and hoping that people will wear masks is absolutely ridiculous, members are already reporting there is an increase in passengers ignoring the rules on mask wearing.
“Until rates of Covid-19 are fully under control, throughout the whole of the UK, the rules on mask wearing on public transport should remain in place.”
Scotland’s SNP Government has made no comment on the Prime Minister’s plans.
Prime Minister: “We must learn to live with COVID”
Step 4 of England’s Roadmap paused for four weeks while vaccination programme is accelerated following significant rise in more transmissible variant
Second dose brought forward to 8 weeks for over 40s to provide strongest protection against Delta variant sooner
Restrictions to be lifted on weddings and wakes on 21 June
Step 4 will be delayed by up to four weeks in England and the vaccination programme accelerated to respond to the rapid spread of the Delta variant, the Prime Minister confirmed yesterday.
Scotland’s First Minister will give an update on Scotland’s plans later today. At present it’s planned that Scotland would move to Level 0 on 28 June, but concerns over rising numbers of the Delta variant make it likely that the date will be put back.
By 19 July, all adults in England will have been offered a first dose and around two thirds of all adults will have been offered two doses of the vaccine.
Data suggests that the Delta variant is between 40% and 80% more transmissible than the Alpha variant and is rapidly driving up case numbers.
There are currently around 8,000 cases a day, the highest since the end of February, and these are increasing by around 64% each week.
Hospitalisations are starting to rise, with the average number of people admitted to hospital increasing in England by 50% per week, and 61% per week in the North-West.
Our successful vaccination programme is weakening the link between cases and hospitalisations, but the latest evidence shows that two doses are needed to provide effective protection against the Delta variant.
The Roadmap has always been led by data and not dates, and the government’s four tests have not been met. In order to offer two vaccine doses to more people, prevent thousands of unnecessary deaths and protect the NHS, Step 4 will be delayed by up to four weeks to Monday 19 July. If the data rapidly improves this could be brought forward to 5 July.
The four tests are:
The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
Two vaccine doses have now been shown to be highly effective in reducing hospitalisation from the Delta variant, with the latest PHE data suggesting this could be up to 96% for Pfizer-BioNTech and 92% for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.
All adults aged 18 and over will now be offered a first dose by 19 July, 2 weeks earlier than planned. All adults aged 23 and 24 will be able to book their first dose from tomorrow (15 June).
By 19 July, all those aged over 50 and the clinically extremely vulnerable will have been offered their second dose, and those second doses will have taken effect.
Second doses for all over 40s will be accelerated by reducing the dosing interval from 12 weeks to 8 weeks. All over 40s who received a first dose by mid-May will be offered a second dose by 19 July.
The school holidays in England begin at the end of July, further reducing transmission among the younger age groups. Step 3 restrictions will continue in their current format with the following exceptions implemented from 21 June. No restrictions will be reimposed.
The 30-person limit will be lifted for weddings and wakes. There will be no set limit on the number of attendees, but venues must adhere to covid secure guidance, maintain social distancing and provide table service. All weddings in private settings, such as gardens, must have completed a covid risk assessment to ascertain how many guests they can host safely.
Event pilots will continue, including some Euro 2020 matches, Wimbledon, and some arts and music performances. Attendees will show proof of vaccination or a recent negative test.
Care home residents will no longer need to isolate if they leave their residence. Exceptions will include high risk visits including overnight stays in hospital.
Cases are expected to continue rising due to the transmissibility of the Delta variant, but with the acceleration of the vaccination programme hospitalisations are expected to stabilise.
Additional support is available for areas with high cases rates of the Delta variant, including surge testing, isolation support, and efforts to maximise vaccination uptake.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a statement at a press conference last night:
When we set out on our roadmap to freedom a few months ago, we were determined to make progress that was cautious but irreversible. And step by step – thanks to the enormous efforts of the British people and the spectacular vaccine roll-out we now have one of the most open economies and societies in this part of the world.
And as we have always known and as the February roadmap explicitly predicted – this opening up has inevitably been accompanied by more infection and more hospitalisation. Because we must be clear that we cannot simply eliminate Covid – we must learn to live with it. And with every day that goes by we are better protected by the vaccines and we are better able to live with the disease.
Vaccination greatly reduces transmission and two doses provide a very high degree of protection against serious illness and death. But there are still millions of younger adults who have not been vaccinated and sadly a proportion of the elderly and vulnerable may still succumb even if they have had two jabs.
And that is why we are so concerned by the Delta variant that is now spreading faster than the third wave predicted in the February roadmap. We’re seeing cases growing by about 64 per cent per week, and in the worst affected areas, it’s doubling every week.
And the average number of people being admitted to hospital in England has increased by 50 per cent week on week, and by 61 per cent in the North West, which may be the shape of things to come. Because we know the remorseless logic of exponential growth and even if the link between infection and hospitalisation has been weakened it has not been severed.
And even if the link between hospitalisation and death has also been weakened, I’m afraid numbers in intensive care, in ICU are also rising. And so we have faced a very difficult choice. We can simply keep going with all of step 4 on June 21st even though there is a real possibility that the virus will outrun the vaccines and that thousands more deaths would ensue that could otherwise have been avoided.
Or else we can give our NHS a few more crucial weeks to get those remaining jabs into the arms of those who need them. And since today I cannot say that we have met all four tests for proceeding with step four, I do think it is sensible to wait just a little longer.
By Monday 19th July we will aim to have double jabbed around two thirds of the adult population including everyone over 50, all the vulnerable, all the frontline health and care workers and everyone over 40 who received their first dose by mid-May. And to do this we will now accelerate the 2nd jabs for those over 40 – just as we did for the vulnerable groups – so they get maximum protection as fast as possible.
And we will bring forward our target to give every adult in this country a first dose by 19th July that is including young people over the age of 18 with 23 and 24 year olds invited to book jabs from tomorrow – so we reduce the risk of transmission among groups that mix the most.
And to give the NHS that extra time we will hold off step 4 openings until July 19th except for weddings that can still go ahead with more than 30 guests provided social distancing remains in place and the same will apply to wakes. And we will continue the pilot events – such as Euro2020 and some theatrical performances.
We will monitor the position every day and if after 2 weeks we have concluded that the risk has diminished then we reserve the possibility of proceeding to Step 4 and full opening sooner.
As things stand – and on the basis of the evidence I can see right now – I am confident we will not need any more than 4 weeks and we won’t need to go beyond July 19th. It is unmistakably clear the vaccines are working and the sheer scale of the vaccine roll-out has made our position incomparably better than in previous waves.
But now is the time to ease off the accelerator because by being cautious now we have the chance – in the next four weeks – to save many thousands of lives by vaccinating millions more people.
And once the adults of this country have been overwhelmingly vaccinated, which is what we can achieve in a short space of time, we will be in a far stronger position to keep hospitalisations down, to live with this disease, and to complete our cautious but irreversible roadmap to freedom.
Scotland’s First Minister will give an update on Scotland’s plans later today. At present it’s planned that Scotland would move to Level 0 on 28 June, but concerns over rising numbers of the Delta variant make it likely that the date will be put back.
Nicola Sturgeon expected to announce lockdown easing in Scotland later today
Planned easements at Step 3 of the Roadmap to go ahead from 17 May in England
Infection rates and hospital admissions continue to decrease
Prime Minister praises efforts of the public but continues to urge caution
The Roadmap is on track and planned Step 3 easements will go ahead in England on 17 May, the Prime Minister has confirmed. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is expected to announce further easing of lockdown restrictions in Scotland later today.
The data shows that the government’s “four tests” for easing restrictions have been met. Infection rates are at their lowest level since September, while hospital admissions and patients in hospital continue to decrease – with levels now similar to July last year.
Hospital admissions and cases of severe illness also remain in line with modelling provided by scientific experts for the Roadmap.
From the 17 May, the majority of the indoor and remaining outdoor economy can reopen, and gathering limits will increase indoors and outdoors. Guidance for close contact between friends and family will be updated, with people exercising their own personal judgement in line with the risks.
The Stay in the UK restriction will be lifted and people will be able to travel to green list countries, if they permit inbound travel.
The Prime Minister continued to urge caution. The aim of the Roadmap is to be cautious but irreversible and unlocking too fast, too soon, risks a resurgence of the virus.
The assessment to move to Step 3 was based on four tests:
The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
As set out in the Roadmap, 4 weeks is needed to fully understand the impact of each step. The Government also committed to provide a further weeks’ notice to businesses.
From Monday 17 May indoor hospitality can reopen and indoor entertainment can resume, including cinemas, museums, and children’s play areas.
Up to 6 people or 2 households will be able to meet indoors and up to 30 people outdoors.
All remaining outdoor entertainment can reopen, such as outdoor cinemas and performances. Some larger events will be able to take place, including conferences, theatre and concert performances, and sports events. Restrictions on the number of attendees will remain as set out in the Roadmap.
Guidance on meeting family and friends will be updated. The public can make informed, personal decisions on close contact, such as hugging, with their friends and family. Close contact continues to carry a risk of catching or spreading COVID-19, and people must consider the risk to themselves and to others. COVID-secure rules remain for the workplace and businesses, such as in shops and hospitality.
The Transport Secretary has already confirmed that international travel can begin to safely reopen in England from 17 May, allowing people to go on foreign holidays to ‘green’ list countries.
Strict border control measures will remain in place, including pre-departure tests and a PCR test on or before day two of their arrival back in the UK.
Face coverings will no longer be needed in classrooms or for students in communal areas in secondary schools and colleges. Twice weekly home testing will remain to control infection rates.
All remaining university students will be eligible to return to in-person teaching and learning from May 17, and should get tested twice a week upon return.
Up to 30 people will now be able to attend weddings, receptions, and commemorative events including wakes, as well as standalone life-cycle events. These can take place outdoors or at any indoor Covid secure venue that is permitted to open. The number of people able to attend a funeral will be determined by the number that can be safely accommodated in the venue with social distancing in place.
30 people will be able to attend a support group or parent and child group. The limit will not apply to children under 5.
Organised adult sport and exercise classes can resume indoors and saunas and steam rooms may reopen.
Care homes residents will be able to have up to five named visitors, with two visitors able to attend at once provided they are tested and follow infection control measures. Residents will also have greater freedoms to leave their home without having to isolate on their return.
The successful vaccination rollout continues, with over 35 million people receiving at least one dose, and nearly 18 million receiving both doses. One quarter of all adults have now received the strongest protection available.
The latest data shows that the estimated reduction in symptomatic disease is 60% and hospitalisations 80% for one dose of the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine for people aged 80 and over. Data published by PHE today estimates that for the over 80s, two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine reduces the risk of hospitalisation by 93%.
Step 4 is due to take place in England no earlier than 21 June. Further detail on Step 4 will be set out at the end of the month.
Nicola Sturgeon will make a statement later today. She is expected to confirm that Scotland’s Covid rules will be relaxed further next week.
Outdoor hospitality will be among those reopening in England next week after the Prime Minister confirmed the roadmap is on track and planned easements can go ahead.
Significant parts of the indoor economy and further outdoor settings will reopen from 12 April, after data confirmed the government’s “four tests” for easing Covid restrictions had been met.
However he continued to urge caution, with no changes to social contact rules and many restrictions still in place. Outdoor gatherings must still be limited to 6 people or 2 households, and you must not socialise indoors with anyone you do not live with or have not formed a support bubble with.
Confirmation Step 2 of the roadmap would proceed came after the measures were agreed at a “Covid O” meeting and discussed on a Cabinet call earlier today (Monday).
Before proceeding to this step, the government studied the latest data to assess the impact of the first step, which began when schools reopened on 8 March.
The assessment was based on four tests:
The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated.
Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern.
As set out in the roadmap, around four weeks is required to see the impact in the data of the previous step.
The government also committed to provide a further week’s notice to businesses, provided through the update from the Prime Minister today.
From Monday 12 April additional premises will be able to reopen – with the rules on social contact applying. Indoor settings must only be visited alone or with household groups, with outdoor settings limited to either six people or two households.
This includes non-essential retail; personal care premises such as hairdressers, beauty and nail salons; and indoor leisure facilities such as gyms and spas (but not including saunas and steam rooms, which are due to open at Step 3).
Overnight stays away from home in England will be permitted and self-contained accommodation can also reopen, though must only be used by members of the same household or support bubble.
Public buildings such as libraries and community centres will also reopen.
The majority of outdoor settings and attractions can also reopen, including outdoor hospitality, zoos, theme parks, drive-in cinemas and drive-in performances events.
Hospitality venues will be able to open for outdoor service, with no requirement for a substantial meal to be served alongside alcohol, and no curfew. The requirement to eat and drink while seated will remain.
People should continue to work from home where they can, and minimise domestic travel where they can. International holidays are still illegal.
The number of care home visitors will also increase to two per resident, and all children will be able to attend any indoor children’s activity, including sport, regardless of circumstance.
Parent and child groups of up to 15 people (not counting children aged under five years old) can restart indoors.
Funerals can continue with up to 30 attendees. Weddings, outdoor receptions, and commemorative events including wakes will be able to take place with up to 15 attendees (in premises that are permitted to open).
The government is also publishing today an update on the 4 reviews established in the roadmap to determine what measures may be necessary from summer onwards.
A Covid-status certification system will be developed over the coming months which could allow higher-risk settings to be opened up more safely and with more participants. Over the coming months, a system will be developed which will take into account three factors: vaccination, a recent negative test, or natural immunity (determined on the basis of a positive test taken in the previous six months).
Events pilots will take place from mid-April to trial the system. All pilots are checking Covid status, initially this will be through testing alone but in later pilots vaccination and acquired immunity are expected to be alternative ways to demonstrate status.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson told an afternoon media conference:
“Good afternoon, I hope you’re all continuing to enjoy the Easter break, and I know that over this weekend millions of people have been able to see loved ones for the first time in months.
“And I want to thank you all again for your patience, because it is really clear now that this is paying off.
“And it your collective efforts, our collective efforts, that has given us that crucial time and space to vaccinate more than 31 million people.
“And I’m pleased that we’ve also been able to support our overseas territories so that Gibraltar has become one of the first places in the world to offer a vaccination to its entire adult population.
“And the net result of your efforts and the vaccine roll-out is that I can today confirm that from Monday 12th April, we will move to Step Two of our roadmap – re-opening shops, gyms, zoos, holiday campsites, personal care services like hairdressers and, of course, beer gardens and outdoor hospitality of all kinds.
“And on Monday the 12th I will be going to the pub myself – and cautiously but irreversibly raising a pint of beer to my lips.
“We’re also increasing the number of visitors to care homes from one to two – to allow residents to see more of their loved ones.
“We think that these changes are fully justified by the data, which show we are meeting our four tests for easing the lockdown as Chris will shortly explain.
“But – and you know I’m going to say this – we can’t be complacent.
“We can see the waves of sickness afflicting other countries and we’ve seen how this story goes.
“We still don’t know how strong the vaccine shield will be when cases begin to rise, as I’m afraid that they will – and that’s why we’re saying:
Please get your vaccine or your second dose when your turn comes.
And please use the free NHS tests – even if you don’t feel ill, because remember 1 in 3 people with this virus doesn’t have any symptoms – and you can get these tests from pharmacies or your local test site, you can even order them on gov.uk and get home deliveries.
“As part of our roadmap we’re also publishing today on gov.uk the early thinking on our four reviews, on the safe return of major events, on social distancing, the potential role of Covid status certification, and on the resumption of international travel.
“We set out our roadmap and we’re sticking to it. And I want to stress, that we see nothing in the present data that makes us think that we will have to deviate from that roadmap.
“But it is by being cautious, by monitoring the data at every stage and by following the rules: remembering hands, face, space and fresh air – that we hope together to make this roadmap to freedom irreversible.”
It seems that almost every week we learn of some new scientific breakthrough to help us beat Covid. Last week it was good news about the vaccine from Pfizer BioNTech and then Moderna.
This morning we heard the fantastic news that the Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccine has been highly effective in clinical trials – there are more tests to be done, but the signs are that this vaccine – financed partly by British taxpayers, working in partnership with a great British company – this vaccine could be both affordable and easy to use and highly effective.
We have ordered 100m doses, and thanks to the work of the Vaccines Task Force we have secured more than 350m doses of potential vaccines of all kinds – but we are not out of the woods yet
We can hear the drumming hooves of the cavalry coming over the brow of the hill but they are not here yet.
Even if all three vaccines are approved, even if the production timetables are met and vaccines notoriously fall behind in their production timetables it will be months before we can be sure that we have inoculated everyone that needs a vaccine and those months will be hard.
They will be cold – they include January and February when the NHS is under its greatest pressure and that is why when we come out of lockdown next week we must not just throw away the gains we have all made. So today we have published out Covid Winter Plan which sets out a clear strategy to take the country through to the end of March.
We will continue to bear down hard on this virus. We will use tough tiering – in some ways tougher than the pre-lockdown measures and details of those tiers are on the gov.uk website later this week when we have the most up to data and we will be sharing details of which tier your area is going to be in.
I should warn you now that many more places will be in higher tiers than alas was previously the case, and we will simultaneously be using the new and exciting possibilities of community testing – as they have done in Liverpool – and there will be a clear incentive for everyone in areas where the virus prevalence is high to get a test, to get one of these rapid turnaround lateral flow tests and do your best for the community.
Get a test to help to squeeze the disease and reduce the restrictions that your town or city or area has endured and that way – through tough tiering and mass community testing we hope to let people see a little more of their family and friends over Christmas.
Now I know that many of us want and need Christmas with our families; we feel after this year we deserve it but this is not the moment to let the virus rip for the sake of Christmas parties.
‘Tis the season to be jolly but’ tis also the season to be jolly careful, especially with elderly relatives.
And working with the Devolved Administrations we will set out shortly how we want to get the balance right for Christmas and we will be setting this out later this week.
Christmas this year will be different and we want to remain prudent through Christmas and beyond into the new year, but we will use the three tools that I have described to squeeze the virus in the weeks and months ahead: tiering, testing and the roll-out of vaccines, employing all three techniques together so as to drive down R and drive down the infection rate.
And I really am now assured things really will look and feel very different indeed after Easter and that idea of and end goal or date is important because at last – if the promise of the vaccines is fulfilled – we do have something to work for a timescale, a goal around which businesses can begin tentatively to plan and with luck and with hard work we will be seeing improvements before then.
But for now the problem is not a shortage of hope or a lack of optimism, not with the amazing news that we are getting from the laboratories in this country: the challenge now as we face this difficult winter ahead is to fight down any over-optimism to master any tendency to premature celebration of success.
That success will come all the faster if we work together to follow the guidance maintain the basic disciplines as people have done so heroically over the last few months: hands, face, space and get a test if you have symptoms because that is the way we will beat it together.
With the NHS weeks from being overwhelmed, and a higher death toll than the first wave predicted without new restrictions, the Prime Minister, Chief Medical Officer, Chief Scientific Advisor, and Cabinet agreed there was no alternative to tougher national measures.
The Prime Minister will update Parliament on Monday, and MPs are set to vote on the measures on Wednesday. This follows a Cabinet chaired by the Prime Minister earlier today.
He said that no one wants to impose these kinds of measures, but no responsible Prime Minister could ignore the evidence presented.
He also said that, whilst Christmas will inevitably be different this year, tough action now could mean families may be able to be together.
Belgium, France, Germany and other countries have already put in place national restrictions, following earlier local measures.
From Thursday 5 November, everyone in England must stay at home, and may leave only for a limited set of reasons. These include:
For education;
For work, if you cannot work from home;
For exercise and recreation outdoors, with your household, support bubble or on your own with one person from another household;
For all medical reasons, appointments and to escape injury or harm;
To shop for food and essentials;
And to provide care for vulnerable people, or as a volunteer.
A full set of exemptions will be set out in law.
Single-adult households will still be able to form an exclusive support bubble with one other household, and children can move between homes if their parents are separated.
Non-essential shops, leisure and entertainment venues will be closed. Click and collect services can continue and essential shops, including supermarkets, will remain open, so there is no need for anyone to stockpile.
Pubs, bars, restaurants must close, except for takeaway and delivery services.
People should work from home wherever possible. Workplaces should stay open where people cannot work from home – for example, in the construction or manufacturing sectors.
Shielding as practised in the spring will not currently be reintroduced. The clinically vulnerable, or those over the age of 60, should be especially careful to follow the rules and minimise contacts with others. Those who are clinically extremely vulnerable should not only minimise their contacts with others, but also not go to work if they are unable to work from home.
There is no exemption for staying away from home on holiday. This means people cannot travel internationally or within the UK, unless for work, education or other legally permitted exemptions. Overnight stays away from primary residences will not be allowed, except for specific exceptions including for work.
Inbound international travel will continue to be governed by the travel corridor approach, and those currently on a domestic holiday will be allowed to finish their holidays, but are still subject to the requirements in England not to go out without a reasonable excuse.
Public services, such as job centres, courts, and civil registration offices will remain open.
There is no exemption for communal worship in places of worship (except funerals and individual prayer), organised team sports, or children’s activities.
Elite sport will be allowed to continue behind closed doors as currently.
The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, known as the furlough scheme, will remain open until December, with employees receiving 80% of their current salary for hours not worked, up to a maximum of £2,500. The cost for employers of retaining workers will be reduced compared to the current scheme, which ended on Saturday.
As the Prime Minister and Education Secretary have said, keeping young people in education is a national priority so early years settings, schools, colleges and universities will all remain open. Parents and carers should make sure their children keep attending school. However, universities and adult learning providers should consider increasing online provision where possible.
Parents will still be able to access registered childcare and other childcare activities where reasonably necessary to enable parents to work. Parents are also able to form a childcare bubble with another household for the purposes of informal childcare, where the child is 13 or under.
Ministers are also clear that it is vital to keep the provision for non-Covid healthcare needs going. Unless clinicians tell patients otherwise, they should continue to use the NHS, get scans and other tests, turn up for all appointments and collect medicines and treatments.
Ministers have done everything in their power to avoid another national lockdown.
The natural rate of R is around 3, meaning local restrictions have helped slow the spread of the virus, whilst NHS Test and Trace is testing more than any other country in Europe.
But the R rate is still above 1, meaning infections, hospitalisations and deaths continue to double, and the virus is now a national problem.
On present trends, in the South West, where incidence is low for example, it is clear they would run out of hospital capacity in a matter of weeks unless we act.
Whilst work is underway to boost capacity, including preparing the Nightingales, it is impossible to create extra bed space, and recruit extra doctors and nurses, at the rate necessary to outpace the virus.
Prime Minister’s statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 31 October 2020
Prime Minister Boris Johnson gave a statement at the coronavirus press conference
Good evening and apologies for disturbing your Saturday evening with more news of Covid and I can assure you I wouldn’t do it unless it was absolutely necessary.
First I will hand over to Chris and then Patrick who will present the latest data.
Thank you very much Patrick, and Chris. I am afraid that no responsible PM can ignore the message of those figures.
When I told you two weeks ago that we were pursuing a local and a regional approach to tackling this virus, I believed then and I still believe passionately that it was the right thing to do.
Because we know the cost of these restrictions, the damage they do, the impact on jobs, and on livelihoods, and on people’s mental health.
No one wants to be imposing these kinds of measures anywhere.
We didn’t want to be shutting businesses, pubs and restaurants in one part of the country, where incidence was very low, when the vast bulk of infections were taking place elsewhere.
Our hope was that by strong local action, strong local leadership, we could get the rates of infection down where the disease was surging, and address the problem thereby across the whole country.
And I want to thank the millions of people who have been putting up with these restrictions in their areas for so long. I want to thank local leaders who have stepped up and local communities.
Because as you can see from some of those charts, the R has been kept lower than it would otherwise have been, and there are signs that your work has been paying off
And we will continue as far as we possibly can to adopt a pragmatic and local approach in the months ahead
But as we’ve also seen from those charts, we’ve got to be humble in the face of nature
And in this country alas as across much of Europe the virus is spreading even faster than the reasonable worst case scenario of our scientific advisers
Whose models as you’ve just seen now suggest that unless we act we could see deaths in this country running at several thousand a day
A peak of mortality alas far bigger than the one we saw in April
Even in the South West, where incidence was so low, and still is so low, it is now clear that current projections mean they will run out of hospital capacity in a matter of weeks unless we act.
And let me explain why the overrunning of the NHS would be a medical and moral disaster beyond the raw loss of life
Because the huge exponential growth in the number of patients – by no means all of them elderly, by the way – would mean that doctors and nurses would be forced to choose which patients to treat
Who would get oxygen and who wouldn’t
Who would live and who would die,
And doctors and nurses would be forced to choose between saving covid patients and non-covid patients
And the sheer weight of covid demand would mean depriving tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of non-covid patients of the care they need
It is crucial to grasp this that the general threat to public health comes not from focusing too much on covid, but from not focusing enough, from failing to get it under control
And if we let the lines on those graphs grow in the way they could and in the way they’re projected to grow, then the risk is that for the first time in our lives, the NHS will not be there for us and for our families
And even if I could now double capacity overnight – and obviously I am proud that we have massively increased capacity, we do have the Nightingales, we’ve got 13,000 more nurses now than last year, we have many more doctors – but it still would not be enough, because the virus is doubling faster than we could conceivably add capacity
And so now is the time to take action because there is no alternative. From Thursday until the start of December, you must stay at home.
You may only leave home for specific reasons, including:
For education; For work, say if you cannot work from home; For exercise and recreation outdoors, with your household or on your own with one person from another household; For medical reasons, appointments and to escape injury or harm; To shop for food and essentials; And to provide care for vulnerable people, or as a volunteer.
I’m afraid non-essential shops, leisure and entertainment venues will all be closed – though click and collect services can continue and essential shops will remain open, so there is no need to stock up.
Pubs, bars, restaurants must close except for takeaway and delivery services.
Workplaces should stay open where people can’t work from home – for example in the construction or manufacturing sectors.
Single adult households can still form exclusive support bubbles with one other household, and children will still be able to move between homes if their parents are separated.
If you are clinically vulnerable, or over the age of 60, you should be especially careful to follow the rules and minimise your contacts with others.
I know how tough shielding was, and we will not ask people to shield again in the same way again. However we are asking those who are clinically extremely vulnerable to minimise their contact with others, and not to go to work if they are unable to work from home.
I am under no illusions about how difficult this will be for businesses which have already had to endure hardship this year. I am truly, truly sorry for that.
This is why we are also going to extend the furlough system through November. The furlough scheme was a success in the spring. It supported people and businesses in a critical time. We will not end it. We will extend it until December.
There will be some differences compared to March.
These measures above all will be time-limited, starting next Thursday 5 November. They will end on Wednesday 2 December, when we will seek to ease restrictions, going back into the tiered system on a local and regional basis according to the latest data and trends.
Christmas is going to be different this year, very different, but it is my sincere hope and belief that by taking tough action now, we can allow families across the country to be together.
My priority, our priority, remains keeping people in education – so childcare, early years settings, schools, colleges and universities will all remain open. Our senior clinicians still advise that school is the best place for children to be.
We cannot let this virus damage our children’s futures even more than it has already. I urge parents to continue taking their children to school and I am extremely grateful to teachers across the country for their dedication in enabling schools to remain open.
And it is vital that we will keep provision for non-Covid healthcare groups going.
So please – this is really important – unless your clinicians tell you otherwise, you should continue to use the NHS, get your scans, turn up for your appointments and pick up your treatments. If at all possible, we want you to continue to access these services, now and through the winter. Indeed it’s only by taking this action that we can protect the NHS for you.
On Monday I will set out our plans to parliament. On Wednesday, parliament will debate and vote on these measures which, if passed, will as I say come into force on Thursday.
We have updated the devolved administrations on the action we are taking in England and stand ready to work with them on plans for Christmas and beyond.
We should remember we are not alone in what we’re going through. Our friends in Belgium, France and Germany have had to take very similar action.
So as we come together now to fight this second wave, I want to say something about the way ahead
Because people will reasonably ask when will this all end
And as I have said before I am optimistic that this will feel very different and better by the spring
It is not just that we have ever better medicine and therapies, and the realistic hope of a vaccine in the first quarter of next year
We now have the immediate prospect of using many millions of cheap, reliable and above all rapid turnaround tests
Tests that you can use yourself to tell whether or not you are infectious and get the result within ten to 15 minutes
And we know from trial across the country in schools and hospitals that we can use these tests not just to locate infectious people but to drive down the disease
And so over the next few days and weeks, we plan a steady but massive expansion in the deployment of these quick turnaround tests
Applying them in an ever-growing number of situations
From helping women to have their partners with them in labour wards when they’re giving birth to testing whole towns and even whole cities
The army has been brought in to work on the logistics and the programme will begin in a matter of days
Working with local communities, local government, public health directors and organisations of all kinds to help people discover whether or not they are infectious, and then immediately to get them to self-isolate and to stop the spread
And I can tell you tonight that the scientists may be unanimously gloomy about the immediate options
But they are unanimously optimistic about the medium and the long term future
We will get through this – but we must act now to contain this autumn surge
We are not going back to the full-scale lockdown of March and April
It is less prohibitive and less restrictive
But from Thursday the basic message is the same: Stay at home. Protect the NHS. And save lives.
HOW WILL THIS AFFECT SCOTLAND?
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon tweeted last night:
She added:
2. @scotgov will take considered decisions based on what is right for Scotland. A key point for us – which we hope to clarify ASAP – is whether extended furlough support is available only in November or flexibly for devolved admins. That could have an impact on our decisions.
New package announced to support and enforce self-isolation
People in England will be required by law to self-isolate from 28 September, supported by payment of £500 for those on lower incomes who cannot work from home and have lost income as a result.
New fines for those breaching self-isolation rules will start at £1,000 – bringing this in line with the penalty for breaking quarantine after international travel – but could increase to up to £10,000 for repeat offences and for the most egregious breaches, including for those preventing others from self-isolating.
For example, this could include business owners who threaten self-isolating staff with redundancy if they do not come to work, sending a clear message that this will not be tolerated.
A number of steps will be taken to make sure that people are complying with the rules, these include:
NHS Test and Trace call handlers making regular contact with those self-isolating, with the ability to escalate any suspicion of non-compliance to Local Authorities and local police;
Using police resources to check compliance in highest incidence areas and in high-risk groups, based on local intelligence;
Investigating and prosecuting high-profile and egregious cases of non-compliance; and
Acting on instances where third parties have identified others who have tested positive, but are not self-isolating.
Recognising that self-isolation is one of the most powerful tools for controlling the transmission of Covid-19, this new Test and Trace Support payment of £500 will ensure that those on low incomes are able to self-isolate without worry about their finances.
Just under 4 million people who are in receipt of benefits in England will be eligible for this payment, which will be available to those who are required to self-isolate from 28 September.
Local Authorities will be working quickly to set up these self-isolation support schemes and we expect them to be in place by 12 October. Those who start to self-isolate from 28 September will receive backdated payments once the scheme is set up in their Local Authority.
This financial support comes as the government places a legal requirement on people to self-isolate when instructed to by NHS Test and Trace and introduces tougher fines for breaking the rules.
Many people are following the rules around self-isolation, but these steps will make sure more do and help ensure the public do not unknowingly spread the virus.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: “The best way we can fight this virus is by everyone following the rules and self-isolating if they’re at risk of passing on coronavirus. And so nobody underestimates just how important this is, new regulations will mean you are legally obliged to do so if you have the virus or have been asked to do so by NHS Test and Trace.
“People who choose to ignore the rules will face significant fines. We need to do all we can to control the spread of this virus, to prevent the most vulnerable people from becoming infected, and to protect the NHS and save lives.
“And while most people are doing their absolute level best to comply with the rules, I don’t want to see a situation where people don’t feel they are financially able to self-isolate.
“That’s why we’re also introducing a new £500 Test and Trace Support payment for those on low incomes who are required by NHS Test and Trace to remain at home to help stop the spread of the virus.”
Research highlights England’s local councils with the lowest social mobility opportunities
The effect of deprivation in dozens of English local authorities is now so persistent that some families face being locked into disadvantage for generations unless the right action is taken, a new report shows today.
In the most detailed study of regional social mobility ever conducted in the UK, the report from the Social Mobility Commission identifies local councils with the worst and the best social mobility in England.
In the “coldest spots” those from disadvantaged backgrounds, entitled to free school meals, have little chance of making a better life for themselves or their children. They also earn much less than their more affluent peers.
These areas, which range across England, include:
Chiltern
Bradford
Thanet
Bolton
Wolverhampton
Kingston-upon-Hull
Fenland
Mansfield
Walsall
Gateshead
Kirklees
St Helens
Dudley
Bolton
Wigan
Individuals aged 28 from disadvantaged families in these councils earn on average just over half the amount of those from similar backgrounds in the most mobile areas. They also earn much less than those of the same age from more affluent families living nearby.
Steven Cooper, interim co-chair of the commission said: “These findings are very challenging. They tell a story of deep unfairness, determined by where you grow up. It is not a story of north versus south or urban versus rural; this is a story of local areas side by side with vastly different outcomes for the disadvantaged sons growing up there.“
Areas with high social mobility, where those from poorer backgrounds earn more and the pay gap with those from affluent families is smaller include:
The results, covering around 320 local councils in England and 800,000 young adults, show a postcode lottery for disadvantaged people. In areas with high social mobility, disadvantaged young adults earn twice as much as those with similar backgrounds in areas with low social mobility – on average, over £20,000 compared with under £10,000. Annual earnings from this group range from £6,900 (Chiltern) to £24,600 (Uttlesford).
Councils with the lowest earnings for disadvantaged individuals include:
Bradford
Hyndburn
Gateshead
Thanet
But they also include:
West Devon
Sheffield
Malvern Hills
Kensington and Chelsea.
Those with the highest earnings include:
Broxbourne
East Hertfordshire
Forest Heath
Havering
Uttlesford
Wokingham
But those from poor backgrounds also face unfairness on their doorstep. Pay gaps between the most and least deprived individuals in local authorities with the poorest social mobility are 2.5 times higher than in areas of high social mobility.
Education, often blamed for social mobility differences, is only part of the answer. In areas with high social mobility, gaps in educational achievement account for almost the entire pay difference between the most and least advantaged sons. On average it accounts for 80% of the difference.
However, in local authorities where social mobility is low it is much harder to escape deprivation. In such areas, up to 33% of the pay gap between the highest and lowest earners is down to non-education factors, like local labour markets and family background.
Disadvantaged workers are restricted by factors including limited social networks (fewer internships); inability to move to more prosperous areas; limited or no financial support from family; less resilience to economic turbulence due to previous crisis such as 2008 financial crash and less developed soft skills.
The commission is now urging regional and community leaders to use the findings to help draw up tailored, sustained, local programmes to boost social mobility, building on the approach in some Opportunity Areas.
The commission will also ask the government to extend its current Opportunity Areas programme – which gives support to 12 councils – to include several more authorities identified as the areas with the most entrenched disadvantage.
Professor Lindsey Macmillan, Director of CEPEO at UCL and Research Fellow at IFS said: “This new evidence highlights the need for a joined up-approach across government, third sector organisations, and employers.
“The education system alone cannot tackle this postcode lottery – a strategy that considers the entire life experience, from birth through to adulthood, is crucial to ensuring fairer life chances for all.”
Laura van der Erve, Research Economist at IFS and co-author of the report, said: “Not only do children from disadvantaged backgrounds have considerably lower school attainment and lower adult earnings than their peers from more affluent backgrounds, we also find large differences in the outcomes of children from disadvantaged backgrounds across the country.
“This highlights that children’s opportunities in England are still defined by both the family they were born into and the area they grew up in.”
Key findings
Social mobility in England is a postcode lottery, with large differences across areas in both the adult pay of disadvantaged adults, and the size of the pay gap for those from deprived families, relative to those from affluent families.
Disadvantaged young adults in areas with high social mobility can earn twice as much as their counterparts in areas where it is low – over £20,000 compared with under £10,000
Pay gaps between deprived and affluent young adults in areas with low social mobility are 2.5 times larger than those in areas with high social mobility.
In areas of low social mobility, up to 33% of the pay gap is driven by family background and local market factors, over and beyond educational achievement.
Characteristics of the coldest spots: fewer professional and managerial occupations; fewer outstanding schools; higher levels of deprivation and moderate population density.
The Social Mobility Commission is an independent advisory non-departmental public body established under the Life Chances Act 2010 as modified by the Welfare Reform and Work Act 2016. It has a duty to assess progress in improving social mobility in the UK and to promote social mobility in England.
The UK Government has published detailed guidance for England’s schools on contingency planning for areas with local lockdowns in place.
The guidance sets out that all possible measures should be taken before any restrictions are imposed on schools to maintain consistent education for children and young people.
Education Secretary Gavin Williamson said: “Our primary focus remains supporting all schools to welcome back all pupils for the start of term and we thank teachers and staff for their hard work in preparations.
“We hope that we won’t have to implement the guidance set out today because the local lockdown measures we have introduced so far are working. Changes to school attendance will only ever be an absolute last resort.
“However, it is important that both government and schools prepare for a worst case scenario, so this framework represents the sensible contingency planning any responsible government would put in place.”
The updated CONTAIN guidance sets out four tiers of restrictions for education settings, for use as an absolute last resort in areas subject to local restrictions.
All schools, colleges and other education settings are opening for the start of term, with all those in areas subject to local restrictions currently at Tier 1 – fully open to all pupils full time, with face coverings required in corridors and communal areas for pupils in Year 7 and above.
Local authority leaders and directors of public health, alongside national government, would be at the centre of any decision making to move out of Tier 1 for education settings.
They would take all other possible measures, including implementing restrictions on other sectors, before considering restricting attendance in education.
If all other measures have been exhausted, Tier 2 would advise secondary schools and colleges in a restricted area to use rotas to help break chains of transmission of coronavirus, while primary schools remain open to all pupils.
Tiers 3 and 4 introduce remote learning full time for wider groups of pupils, with vulnerable children and children of critical workers continuing to attend.
The government asked schools in July to ensure they were able to provide high quality remote education that mirrors in-school education, in case any pupils were required to self-isolate or local restrictions were needed. These plans should extend to rotas if ever required.
All children are due to return to school for the autumn term and schools have been putting in place protective measures to reduce the risk of transmission.
School staff have been working to implement increased hygiene and handwashing with children remaining in consistent groups, using measures such as staggered break times to keep groups apart.
To further reassure parents and teachers that all proportionate measures are being taken to make schools as safe as possible, the government has announced that in areas of the country currently subject to enhanced restrictions, staff and pupils in secondary schools should wear face coverings in communal areas where social distancing cannot be maintained.
From this week, schools and colleges have begun receiving home testing kits, each receiving a pack of 10 tests, with more available to be ordered if needed. The home testing kits are to be used in exceptional circumstances such an individual with symptoms who may have barriers to accessing a test elsewhere and the home kit would significantly increase their chance of getting tested. This will enable schools and colleges to take swift action to protect others if the test result is positive.
Schools are also receiving packs of PPE to use in the very limited circumstances it may be required, such as when it is not possible for a staff member to maintain 2m distance from a pupil with a suspected case of coronavirus.
This week the Chief Medical Officers from all four nations in the United Kingdom made it clear that the risks to children contracting Covid-19 in school or college is extremely low and that the risks associated with not being in school or college outweighs that of not being there.
The Department for Education has also published further guidance to help schools plan for potential Tier 2 restrictions, which will involve secondary year groups operating a rota system in order to reduce pupil numbers on-site.
Education leaders have expressed frustration that the latest guidance was published on Friday evening at the start of a Bank Holiday weekend, giving them little time to prepare and organise for schools returning next week.
