economic recovery – Page 2 – The NEN

North and Midlands leads UK’s jobs recovery

Nine out of 63 cities and large towns have recovered to their pre-pandemic level of job postings, with the North and Midlands outperforming the South and South East
Barnsley, Mansfield and Stoke recorded strongest job posting recovery to date; Aberdeen, Belfast and Crawley experienced the weakest
Areas with high claimant counts and slow recovery in job opportunities in greatest need of policy support, according to new research by global job site Indeed and the Centre for Cities

Britain’s resurgent jobs market is being led by cities and towns in the North and Midlands, according to new research by global job site Indeed and the Centre for Cities think tank.

Hiring gathered pace after the UK Government’s reopening roadmap was announced on 22 February but new analysis shows job growth is unevenly spread across the country.

Indeed and the Centre for Cities analysed job vacancies in 63 cities and large towns and found that in some parts of the country job postings now exceed their pre-pandemic level with those in the North and Midlands having so far witnessed the strongest recovery in job postings.

In total, nine cities or towns – led byBarnsley (+21%), Mansfield (20%) and Stoke (17%) – now have more job postings than before the pandemic started.

In contrast, Aberdeen (-53%), Belfast (-39%) and Crawley (-39%) are the three places where job postings have recovered the least, together with other cities and large towns predominantly in the South East of England.

London too is among the places with the slowest recovery: job postings in the capital are still 26% below their level before the pandemic, making it the 11th city with the slowest recovery.

Pace of job posting recovery varies

The improving jobs landscape in the North and Midlands is partly driven by the mix of available jobs.

Recoveries have been strongest in areas with a greater pre-pandemic share of postings in occupations related to the production and distribution of goods, such as manufacturing, driving and loading & stocking, as well as essential services like healthcare, social care and education.

On the other hand, places with a higher share of pre-pandemic job opportunities in food & beverage service and hospitality & tourism are lagging behind.

Production and distribution hubs lead job postings recovery

New analysis of claimant counts and job vacancies points to which jobs markets were hardest hit by Covid-19 and might take longest to return to their February 2020 level.

Places with high claimant count and low job postings include Brighton, Crawley, Slough as well as London in the south and Blackpool and Manchester in the north. These cities and large towns — which have a dependency on tourism and bustling workplaces — are the hardest hit by the pandemic as recruitment activity is lagging and more people are looking for jobs.

In contrast, places with low claimant count rates and whose job postings have mostly recovered to their pre-pandemic level – such as Mansfield, Swansea and Warrington – appeared to have been relatively sheltered from the economic impact of Covid-19.

Pawel Adrjan, head of EMEA research at the global job site Indeed, comments: “As hiring activity picks up across the country it’s clear there is a two-step jobs recovery underway in Britain.

“Cities and towns in the North and Midlands that have been buoyed by rising manufacturing, distribution, healthcare and education jobs but at the same time areas reliant on hospitality, tourism and higher paying jobs that can be performed from home have seen only sluggish growth.

“Just nine urban areas out of 63 have back above their pre-pandemic level and while the partial reopening of the economy earlier this month rode to the rescue of many businesses and workers our research shows that it alone was not enough to lift ailing area’s jobs levels significantly.

“We’ve seen how quickly the jobs market reacts to policy and public health announcements and policy makers will hope the eventual unwinding of Covid-19 restrictions will help level up the jobs recovery.”

Elena Magrini, senior analyst at the Centre for Cities, said: “Not everywhere is seeing yet the beginnings of post-pandemic recovery. Places reliant on tourism, aviation and office workers have been particularly hard hit and still have high shares of people who are unemployed or on furlough.

“Despite this, we have reasons to be optimistic, particularly given the pace of the recovery in the North and Midlands. Once we have reopened the economy, policy makers need to focus on building back better – growing the economy by creating better paid, higher skilled jobs for people right across the country.”

Big increase in online job posts as economy continues to recover

The latest jobs indicator released by Internet Association shows a large increase in the number of full time and part time job postings online as the UK economy continues its recovery from the Coronavirus pandemic.

The new data shows that over 250,000 full-time jobs were posted online in March 2021 – a 112 percent increase on March 2020. That figure also represents a 21 percent increase since February 2021, following a 5.9 percent rise since January 2021 – pointing to accelerating growth in the full-time jobs market.

There is also encouraging news for part-time work revealed by the new data. While January 2021 saw a 10 percent decrease in part-time online job postings, February 2021 saw a 12.2 percent increase, and March 2021 saw a 4 percent increase.

The positive increase points to the likely preparation ahead of the recent reopening of non-essential retail, hospitality and other sectors that are reliant on part-time work.

Key findings from IA’s ‘Industry Indicators: Jobs (3i Jobs) Q1 2021 Report’:

The number of full time jobs being posted online are at their highest for over a year. And despite the sharp fall during the height of the pandemic, the number of postings online in March 2021 is 112 percent higher than March 2020.
The part-time job market is beginning to recover – albeit slower than the full-time market. March 2021 saw a 4 percent increase in online job postings, following a 12.2 percent increase in February 2021. The number of jobs posted in March 2021 also represents a 37 percent increase on March 2020.
A fifth of UK adults (21 percent) now use the internet to earn money online – with the most common amounts being around £10-20 per month, through to over £100 a month. This rate has remained stable throughout the year, suggesting that people are beginning to use the increased flexibility of home working to earn additional income online.
The top postings for full time positions in March 2021 were Sales Assistant, Retail Sales Associates and Client Advisors. The top postings for part time positions were Crew Members, Cashiers and Sales Advisors – again pointing to the big employment boost expected from the reopening of retail last week.

The new data, part of IA’s ‘3i Report’ series, presents monthly insights on the UK job market using data from national and internet-based resources.

The report tracks month to month trends in the online job market and presents unique information on hiring, openings and an online income tracker that identifies the amount of additional income being made by people online through, for example, selling products on platforms like Etsy or Ebay.

The tracker shows that over a fifth of UK adults are using the internet to earn money online, with 9 percent of those earning more than £100 a month online.

The report also highlights how the internet is a vital tool to help people find work and create income in a variety of ways – with the latest update a cause for optimism for the UK full-time and part time jobs market.

It shows rapid growth in online job postings after a difficult period during the height of the coronavirus pandemic, and a stabilising rate of people earning money online.

To read the full report, click here

Committee calls for ‘national conversation’ on tax policy

It is highly likely that Covid 19 has exacerbated existing structural inequalities in Scotland, according to the Finance and Constitution Committee’s budget report published today.

A fair and equal economic recovery should, therefore, focus support on lower income, less educated, younger workers and help their progression in the labour market, says the Committee in unanimously agreed findings..

The report also says a “fundamental examination” of the Scottish taxation system should be held in time for the 2023-24 Budget.

The committee calls for a ‘national conversation’ on what tax policy is designed to achieve – in particular its role in achieving a just, sustainable and strong economy as we recover from Covid 19.

Finance & Constitution Committee Convener Bruce Crawford MSP said: “Our Committee recognises that it is highly likely that Covid 19 has exacerbated existing structural inequalities – with people on low or precarious incomes, with fewer employment rights facing the harshest of consequences.

“The pandemic has also had a devasting impact on the economy with some sectors and businesses being hit harder than others

“Our view is that a fair economic recovery from Covid will require a particular focus on supporting lower income, less educated and younger workers into the labour market. It should also help them progress up the labour market while driving up standards of pay and workplace rights.

“If the reduction in jobs in hospitality and non-essential retail is to become a permanent feature, support for training in other sectors and industries is also likely to be important.

Calling for a ‘national conversation’ on the Scottish tax system, Mr Crawford added: “We now consider that a fundamental examination of what the Scottish tax system is designed to achieve must be undertaken. In particular, it should look at the role of tax policy in achieving a just, sustainable and strong economy as we recover from Covid 19.

“This would include the breadth and nature of the tax base, the impact of economic activity on the size of the tax base, and the relationship between local, Scottish and UK-wide taxes.

“The Committee’s view is that this requires a national conversation jointly led by the Government and Parliament and which includes a wide range of voices across Scotland.”

The committee’s report says if the work was completed by September 2022 it would allow its successor Committee to consider the findings as part of its pre-budget scrutiny ahead of the Government preparing its 2023-24 Budget.

Find the full budget report of the Finance & Constitution Committee here..

Recover and Reset: TUC General Secretary’s New Year message

In her New Year message, TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady thanks key workers for keeping the country running through the pandemic. And she calls on the government to invest in levelling up all parts of the UK and achieving full employment:

Amid the grief and hardship of the pandemic, 2020 will be remembered for everyone together out on the doorstep to celebrate our key workers.

We all knew who kept this country running through the pandemic. Not hedge fund chiefs, corporate outsourcing giants or government ministers.

But supermarket staff, delivery drivers, telecoms workers, bus drivers, social care workers, health professionals and all our key workers.

Ordinary working people stepping up to do their jobs in extraordinary times.

And yet, even as we applauded them, this government let them down.

Leaving them to struggle in services threadbare after ten years of austerity cuts, too often short staffed and with inadequate PPE. And then, adding insult to injury, freezing their pay.

So our wish for 2021 can be expressed in two short words: recover and reset.

New Year hope comes in the form of a vaccine, created by brilliant scientists and delivered by our precious NHS.

And this is the time to genuinely level up across the UK

But to do that, government must come up with a realistic plan.

The chaos has to stop.

This festive season, across much of the country, pubs and restaurants are silent, high streets deserted, theatres closed and whole sectors in limbo. We face another national lockdown.

With the new strain of the virus spreading so fast, the roll-out of the vaccine must be more comprehensive and faster too – before a real recovery is possible.

And all at a time when trade with our nearest neighbours in the EU is set to become more expensive and more bureaucratic.

Working people, and the businesses that employ them, urgently need transparency and security.

We need to know that government will do what it takes to support working families – protect the NHS, save jobs and get the economy back on its feet.

Throughout 2020’s national crisis, the UK’s trade union movement worked hard to protect livelihoods, and to support public health. We can be proud of the jobs we saved and the workplaces we made safe.

Now we must make Britain’s economic goal for 2021 full and decent employment. We cannot afford the cost of mass unemployment. It is never a price worth paying.

The chancellor must guarantee full furlough until we are through the crisis.

He must invest in good new jobs – in the green tech we need to tackle climate change and in the public services we all rely on.

And to smooth the disruption of the government’s third-rate Brexit deal, he needs to boost UK manufacturing with a £10bn recovery fund to create good new jobs.

Real recovery must mean higher living standards for working families – not just those the top. So we need to reset our country too.

Reset our labour market – banning the zero hours contracts that keep workers poor and powerless. Delivering the enhanced rights at work that ministers have long promised.

Reset raging inequality so that those with most pay their fair share, everyone earns enough to live on, no child need go hungry and public services are properly funded.

Reset regional divides – levelling up our country and bringing good jobs and investment to the parts of the country that need them most.

And government must act to end the systemic racism that harms Black and ethnic minority workers and families. Whatever our race, religion or background, all working people deserve dignity and fairness at work.

Recover and reset. That’s how we build a society that works for everyone.

In 2021, trade unions will be out there fighting for that vision, for our members, and for all working people.

I wish you, your family and workmates happiness, good health and security in 2021 and always.

TUC: Chancellor has a chance to prevent ‘devastation of mass employment’

As the Chancellor stands up to make his ‘summer statement’ today, families across the country will be facing up to the possibility of unemployment (writes the TUC’s KATE BELL):

Yesterday, Pret-a-Manger announced it would be closing 30 shops, with the loss of 1,000 jobs. Last week, to take just one example, Airbus announced the loss of up to 1,700 jobs in the UK. British Airways are ploughing ahead with cuts which could lead to 12,000 job cuts. And the list is getting longer by the day.

The Chancellor has a chance to prevent the devastation of mass unemployment leading to the situation this country saw in the 1980s – young people left on the scrap heap, lives ruined, and communities decimated. But he needs to act fast and decisively.

Here’s the TUC’s plan for decent jobs:

1. Introduce a real jobs guarantee – offering paid jobs for young people who face unemployment

We’ve heard that the Chancellor may invest in apprenticeships, or traineeships – unpaid work placements with some training attached. It’s not clear yet whether these will be voluntary, or how the Chancellor expects people to live while they’re undertaking these. The TUC has always opposed mandatory unpaid work placements. And unpaid work experience is no substitute for a real jobs guarantee.

We want the government to invest in supporting real jobs, paid at least the Real Living Wage, for young people facing the prospect of long-term unemployment. Government funding should support additional jobs in the public and private sector that support regional growth strategies, and provide real benefit, including helping to decarbonise the economy.

That jobs guarantee must go alongside a rapid redundancy response service and investment in jobcentres. And we desperately need an increase in social security payments to stop those who lose their jobs spiralling into debt.

2. Invest across the economy to create jobs

We know the country needs an infrastructure upgrade to help drive productivity, and urgent action to tackle the climate crisis. And after a decade of austerity, our public services are desperately overstretched.

Fixing these problems now can help create the jobs we need. Research for the TUC shows that an £85bn investment in green infrastructure could help create 1.24 million jobs in the next two years, including 500,000 jobs through building and retrofitting social housing, and almost 60,000 jobs in electrifying transport.

And we should support our public services by investing in jobs. There are over 100,000 vacancies in social care, and 100,000 more in the NHS – even before we deliver a better system. Local government saw 100,000 redundancies in the past decade, jobs that are needed now to deliver vital services and help tackle the pandemic.

3. Work with unions and business on new rescue plans for hard hit sectors

We’ve seen how the pandemic, and the social distancing measures it requires, has hit some types of business harder than others. Aviation and hospitality have been particularly badly affected. Government needs to come together with unions and businesses to design rescue packages for these sectors – including setting out how those plans can be used to deliver better and greener jobs.

The Job Retention Scheme has done valuable work throughout the crisis in protecting people’s jobs, and is now supporting many people to work part-time. Government should extend it beyond October for businesses that can show they have a viable future but need more time to get back on their feet.

4. Prioritise progress towards equality

We know unemployment is bad for everyone. But those who already face discrimination in the labour market often see their prospects held back even further. BME groups faced higher unemployment in the 2008-09 recession, and still have high unemployment rates.

Research shows that during upturns disabled people are the last to gain employment, and during downturns they are first to be made unemployed. With the childcare sector on the brink of collapse, women’s employment prospects face being put back a generation.

The Chancellor needs to prioritise progress towards equality when he sets out his plans. That means tackling the insecure work that leaves BME workers disproportionately having their hours cut or being let go. It means monitoring the impact of employment programmes on different groups.

And it means the Chancellor needs to protect those who can’t work due to the fact they are shielding or have caring responsibilities from being forced out of work by extending the job retention scheme.

Mass unemployment and a new wave of inequality aren’t inevitable. We can build back better. But the Chancellor needs to be bold and act fast.

Finance Ministers from the devolved administrations are urging the UK Government to ease the financial restrictions imposed on devolved governments so they can better respond to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.

Ahead of the Chancellor’s Summer Statement, Kate Forbes, Rebecca Evans and Conor Murphy are calling for assurances that will give them the freedom to switch capital funding to day-to-day revenue and put an end to the arbitrary limits on borrowing. They are also looking for more clarity on details around the forthcoming Spending Review.

Kate Forbes, Scotland’s Cabinet Secretary for Finance (above), said: “The powers we are seeking will enable the Scottish Government to respond to COVID-19 more effectively and reboot our economy. They are relatively limited powers, but would ease some of the immense pressures on our budget and give us more tools to kick-start our recovery.

“At the moment, any extra money spent bolstering services and supporting the economic recovery must be taken from other areas. That creates risks for our essential public services, jobs and businesses. I am therefore calling on the Chancellor to ease these rigid fiscal rules and give us the flexibility we need to properly address the monumental challenges our economy is facing.

“I also want to see greater ambition in the level of investment in our economy. Last week the Scottish Government set out a proposal for an £80 billion UK-wide stimulus package. What is needed at this time of crisis is bold and practical policies that will boost consumption, promote investment and protect jobs.”

Northern Ireland Finance Minister Conor Murphy said: “It is crucial that the devolved administrations are equipped to respond swiftly and effectively to the challenges arising from COVID-19.

“More financial flexibility can help us deal with these challenges and use our budgets to support public services, protect the vulnerable, and deliver an economic recovery.”

Welsh Finance Minister Rebecca Evans said: “Our response to the COVID-19 crisis has been hampered by UK imposed rules that limit our ability to get more resources to the frontline.

“There is no clear rationale for these rules, which undermine good budget management in Wales.

“The Welsh Local Government Association, Wales TUC, FSB Cymru and Institute for Fiscal Studies and, more recently, the Senedd’s Finance Committee, have all made the same calls for change.

“The crisis has made the issue urgent. It’s time for the UK Government to act and provide the flexibility we need to respond and invest in Wales’ recovery.”

First Minister urged to put wellbeing at the heart of economic recovery

Poverty Alliance and Wellbeing Economy Alliance have written to the First Minister to urge her to task the recently appointed Advisory Group on Economic Recovery with putting social justice at the heart of their work.

Their letter says:

Dear First Minister,

Economic Recovery and Covid-19

Since the start of the Covid-19 crisis, we have witnessed in action the values that we all share. We have seen the compassion, kindness and solidarity that will be required to make it through this crisis.

But we have also seen that our economy is failing to live up to these values. Our social security system and labour market have failed to protect too many of us: particularly women, disabled people and people from black and minority ethnic communities.

It is clear that as we move through and beyond the current phase of the crisis, we must commit to redesigning our economy and systems to better reflect our shared values of compassion and justice. Instead of returning to the economy we had going into the Covid-19 crisis, we must build back better by creating a wellbeing economy that puts our collective wellbeing first.

We therefore welcome that the Scottish Government’s Covid-19: framework for decision making recognises the need to look at the “social and economic reforms necessary to achieve the best future for Scotland” and commits not to repeat the mistakes of austerity.

This commitment is most welcome but must be made real.

In the months ahead we urge you to maintain your ambitious climate agenda to ensure the post-Covid-19 economy is a sustainable one, and to ensure it is socially just we urge you to prioritise:

Building a labour market that works for everyone: Too many people, particularly women and younger people, are trapped in poverty by low-paid and insecure work. Fair Work has been central to the Scottish Government’s approach to labour market policy, but more must be done to make it a reality for workers in Scotland.
Designing a more just taxation system: While this crisis is impacting every person across the country, the disproportionate impact on people on low incomes has highlighted the very real consequences of our deeply unequal society. It cannot be right that the wealthiest 1% of households in Scotland own more wealth than the poorest 50% at a time when almost 1 in 4 children are living in poverty. We must inject justice and fairness into our taxation system.
Securing adequate incomes for all: We have seen positive steps taken by the Scottish Government as it has started to deliver social security assistance. However, Covid-19 has highlighted that this support must not only be dignified, but should help deliver an adequate income too. The Scottish Government must use its powers creatively and to their fullest extent to ensure that our social security system can keep any one of us afloat during difficult times.

Even at this moment of crisis we must begin the task of investing in a better future, to ‘build back better’, with every policy decision we make helping us move towards a just society that’s in step with our values.

We must not return to the pre-Covid 19 economy that locked so many people into poverty.

The Advisory Group on Economic Recovery must not, therefore, simply seek to replicate the unsustainable and unjust economy that went before.

Instead, it must focus on the steps we can take to create an environmentally sustainable economy that ensures a just distribution of income and wealth.

We urge you to task the recently appointed Advisory Group on Economic Recovery with putting social justice at the heart of their work. In doing so the Advisory Group should liaise with the Poverty and Inequality Commission and the Just Transition Commission and collaborate with existing Wellbeing Economy Governments (WEGo) partners to show leadership in creating a wellbeing economy.

This time calls on us to reflect on the kind of country we want to live in. We believe in a Scotland in which wealth is justly distributed, our life chances are not determined by how much we earn, where our labour market guarantees Fair Work for every worker, and where everyone has enough money to get by.

We hope you share this vision and will take the decisions in the weeks and months ahead to make it a reality.

We would welcome an early discussion with you regarding the role of the Advisory Group, as well as the broader concerns of our members regarding the long-term social and economic reforms we require.

Yours sincerely,

Peter Kelly, The Poverty Alliance
Dr Katherine Trebeck, Wellbeing Economy Alliance

Business confidence on the rise, says Bank of Scotland

Bank of Scotland’s Business Barometer for April 2018 shows:

Overall confidence for firms in Scotland rose 18 points last month to 30 per cent
Economic optimism in the region stood at 18 per cent, 13 points above last month
Firms’ confidence in their own business prospects was 41 per cent, compared with 18 per cent in March

Business confidence in Scotland rose 18 points during April to reach 30 per cent, according to the latest Business Barometer from the Bank of Scotland. Continue reading Business confidence on the rise, says Bank of Scotland

Green shoots? Scotland’s economy ‘gaining momentum’

What with welfare cuts, payday loans, food banks, escalating prices and zero-hour employment contracts it’s maybe hard to believe that things really are getting better, but an increasing number of indicators suggest that the economy is starting to pick up and that a recovery – however fragile – is under way at last.

House sales are on the rise, retail sales are picking up, there is growing consumer confidence and employers and business leaders are cautiously optimistic that the worst is now behind us.

Scotland’s economy is “gaining momentum”, according to a new report published yesterday. The latest State of the Economy report provides an analysis of recent economic developments in Scotland and the wider global economy. The report also looks at recent labour productivity trends in Scotland.

The report highlights improvements in both output growth and employment in Scotland’s economy over the last year. Chief Economist Dr Gary Gillespie describes a more positive environment for Scotland and its key trading partners, which can support a more sustained pick-up in investment, exports and growth.

Key points in the report include:

Growing signs of a global recovery starting to take root in 2013, especially when compared to a disappointing 2012.
Over the year, Scotland has seen growth in output and a general improvement in all headline labour market indicators.
In contrast to the UK where productivity measures have fallen during the recession, output per hour worked (the key measure of labour productivity) in Scotland has risen and is now approximately 3.5% above pre-recession levels.
A permanent improvement in productivity in Scotland would allow for potentially stronger growth in Scotland once demand returns to previous levels. This growth in output will be required to see a sustained recovery in the labour market, particularly in full-time employment, and to support improvement in real wages.
Recent output growth and analysis of the underlying nature of the recession in Scotland suggest the potential for Scotland’s recovery to take hold throughout 2013, with a return to pre-recession levels in 2014 across the economy as a whole.

Commenting on the report Finance Secretary John Swinney said:

“Though headwinds still remain, the general outlook for Scotland is of an improving picture through 2013 with the recovery strengthening in 2014.

“Recent economic indicators have seen Scotland outperforming the UK both in terms of output and with higher rates of employment and lower rates of unemployment and inactivity. The most recent GDP data shows that the Scottish economy grew by 1.2 per cent over the year to Q1 2013 compared to 0.3 per cent in the UK.

“Today’s report confirms these positive trends. This analysis suggests that the global economic outlook will continue to improve this year and Scotland can make the most of the opportunities that will come our way as a result.

“Particularly encouraging is the recovery in productivity which is now above pre-recession levels, which if sustained should lead to a further improvement in both output and the labour market.”

Unsurprisingly Mr Swinney believes that independence would ensure a stronger Scottish economy. He went on:

“While the State of the Economy report highlights the opportunities for Scotland, it also underlines the fragility of the recovery across the UK. We will continue to press the UK Government to take action to help our businesses move forward and, in turn, drive growth in the economy.

“With the full economic levers of independence we could do more to put Scotland more securely on the road to recovery.”

Is the future looking brighter? Do you feel more optimistic?

Let us know!