SNP hopes of an absolute majority are hanging in the balance this morning as counting continues in the Scottish Parliament elections.
The SNP have gained three seats so far with no other party making any gains. Overnight the SNP sits on 39 seats (+3), the Liberal Democrats four (-), the Tories on three (-2) and Labour on two (-1). The ‘magic number’ for an overall majority is 65.
The final three Edinburgh Constituencies will declare this morning. All three are currently held by the SNP, and while pro-Union tactical voting has undoubtedly been a feature of this year’s election Gordon MacDonald (Pentlands, majority 2456), Ash Denham (Eastern, 5057) and Ben MacPherson (Northern and Leith, 6081) look likely to return to Holyrood.
Gordon MacDonald faces the toughest challenge – from the Tories – and if tactical voting is to feature here, Pentlands could be vulnerable. If there are to be any changes in Edinburgh this afternoon this would be the most likely upset.
Pentlands is due to declare between 5 – 6pm.
But despite being roundly defeated in the vast majority of constituency votes – with a handful of notable exceptions – opposition parties will see their seat numbers increase significantly today when the regional list results, calculated using a proportional representation system, are announced.
Ironically Holyrood’s ‘fair’ hybrid voting system punishes success. Any SNP constituency gains could be wiped out by resultant losses on the regional lists, and it’s not inconceivable that the new Scottish Parliament could look exactly the same as the 2016 one, with the SNP falling just short of an overall majority.
With 31 constituencies still to declare there’s no doubt the SNP will again be the biggest party – quite an achievement in itself – but if the SNP don’t quite win an overall majority, they will need the support of pro-referendum Green MSPs, voted in through the regional lists, to get them over the line.
2016 all over again? We’ll find out this afternoon.