Tag: credit cards

Mortgage Misery: Experts predict interest rates hike today

How the new interest rates affect house prices and rent across the UK

  • Housing market: hurry if you’re selling, halt if you’re buying, stay if you’ve borrowed, finance experts advise
  • Landlords will likely increase rent prices or sell to cope with increased mortgage repayments
  • Inflation and interest rates will keep rising, but house prices are already slowing down

TODAY, the Bank of England will decide what the new base interest rates might be, currently at 1.75%. Top market analysts expect this to further rise to 2.25%. 

The Office for National Statistics announced on August 17th that UK inflation rose to 10.1%, from 9.4% two months earlier. The Bank of England expects it to further increase, peaking at 13.3% in October. The accompanying higher interest rates and bleak two-year economic outlook generally means bad news for homebuyers, landlords and renters across the UK.

Top market analysts at CMC Markets expect interest rates to further rise to 2.25% this month. This directly impacts mortgages on variable rates – around 1 in 5 households in the UK – and another 3.1 million whose fixed-rate periods expire in 2022-2023, according to UK Finance estimates.

Borrowers whose repayments are directly linked to the base rate, as set by the Bank of England, will now face mortgage repayments at rates between 3% and 4%, up from 1.75% and 2.75% only five months earlier. This will inevitably spill into rent prices.

CMC Markets analysed the latest data for June 2022 from HM Land Registry, published on August 17th, and concluded that the likely tendency for house prices is in a temporary slowdown, which is good news for those waiting a little longer to buy a home.

Michael Hewson, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets comments: “Houses sold in June 2022 only increased in price by 1% compared to May, whereas, last year, this constituted a much more generous 5.7% surge.

“This is only the first month this year for prices to slow down at such a fast rate, so some caution before jumping to conclusions is advised. Remember, house prices may be slowing down, but they are not decreasing. Importantly, since this is transactions data processed at the time, it does not take into account the big leap in interest rates that the Bank of England announced later that month, let alone the even bigger hike in August.

“Therefore, despite the soaring inflation and rising consumer prices across the board, UK house prices appear to be trailing behind because demand for homes has generally come to a screeching halt. Most buyers are weathering the storm for a few more months at least, while some are also working out how the cost of living crisis will pan out in the medium term so that the new mortgage is not squeezing their pockets beyond their comfort zone.

“For those still keen to get on the property ladder, there are plenty of fixed-rate banking products that can insulate them from the current spiralling interest rates on mortgages. They should, however, prepare for the possibility of being faced with higher-than-expected repayments once the fixed rate period expires, as the new variable rates are at the lender’s discretion. Fixed rates are not a cure-all either, as they may now be set to a higher level to start with.

“The buy-to-let market is equally volatile. Landlords will either pass the increased mortgage repayments onto tenants by increasing their rent or simply sell fast to lock in a better price. Right now though, those already on the property ladder are generally better off staying put rather than moving or re-mortgaging. They would not get a good deal on their old house in this market and may likely end up losing more money overall.”

What did the Bank of England do earlier in August?

The Bank of England explained that the rise in interest rates was necessary due to external pressures which are expected to persist. This means that British firms and residents will continue to feel this weight reflected on rising domestic prices, wages outpaced by soaring inflation, and even higher mortgage repayments, despite the Bank’s attempt to widen the borrowing pool through less restrictive mortgage rules.

Although historic, the Bank’s decision was not a surprise for trading analysts at CMC Markets, a London-headquartered financial services company, who believe the Bank was expected to raise interest rates higher than 1.25% during the June meeting, as a means to keep import inflation in check.

This is on the backdrop of a 10% year-to-date depreciation of the British pound sterling against the US dollar and an indication from the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, of a further interest rate increase by 0.5% or 0.75% in September.

Michael Hewson comments: “The UK currently fares worse than both the EU and the US. This is due to its closer dependence on energy shocks than the States and less government intervention to soften the blow compared to its European counterparts.”

What’s next and when will things calm down?

Other than adjusting the interest rates to the accurate level to keep abreast of import inflation, the economic projections for the UK paint a bleak outlook for the next two years.

The UK is projected to enter a recession in the final quarter of this year, the Bank of England announced. The country’s economy will contract by 1.25% in 2023 and 0.25% in 2024, however, inflation is becoming a much bigger long-term threat, with unrealistic chances of falling back to the desired 2% much before 2024.

The current political race for the Conservative Party leadership and the consequent fiscal policies promoted by the new British government is a major factor to take into account for any inflation, GDP, and unemployment projections and investment decisions.

As it stands with the current measures, inflation is expected to peak at 13.3% in October – a sharper increase than the Bank anticipated in June, originally estimated at 11%. It will continue to rise throughout 2023 only to decline in 2024.

Meanwhile, forecasts for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are less optimistic now, expected to decrease only to 9.5% in the third quarter of 2023, although the Bank anticipates a sharp fall in prices immediately thereafter.

Selling prices are set to increase to reflect rising costs while real household post-tax income is expected to plunge in 2022 and 2023. The Bank predicted that core prices will peak at 6.5% this year, meaning that, in the following six months, food and energy will constitute more than half of the headline CPI.

The next meeting for the Monetary Policy Committee, where the Bank of England will decide what the new base interest rates might be, is today – September 22nd.

Huge jump in number of people missing card and loan payments as financial support cut back

The number of people missing a credit card or loan payment in the UK is estimated to have almost doubled in just a month, new Which? research has revealed.

The consumer champion warns scaled back financial support measures may not be sufficient to protect consumers in financial difficulty.

The latest findings from Which?’s consumer insight tracker reveal that approximately 370,000 more people defaulted on a credit card or loan in October than in September, with the estimated number rising from 410,000 to 780,000. This is the sharpest rise in missed payments of this type since the start of the pandemic.

Overall, 5.8 per cent of respondents to the Which? survey reported that their household had defaulted on at least one housing, credit card, loan or bill payment in October. This was a significant increase from September’s figure of 3.8 per cent, and was driven by the increase in defaults on credit cards and loan repayments.

A missed payment is an indicator of significant financial difficulty, and the large spike is highly concerning as it comes as the financial regulator reduces the level of support given to people who are in financial difficulty on 31 October – the same date that the government’s Job Retention Scheme also finishes.

With the Bank of England predicting that unemployment is expected to rise to around 7.5 per cent by the end of the year, and debt advice charity StepChange seeing 13,000 people seeking debt advice for the first time in August alone, Which? is concerned that the Financial Conduct Authority’s scaled back measures will not be enough to tackle the looming challenge to the financial wellbeing of huge numbers of people.

The FCA initially responded rapidly to the coronavirus outbreak, working with the banking industry to introduce a range of financial assistance measures – including payment holidays for mortgages and other forms of credit for those who are struggling financially as a result of the pandemic.

Which? has been warning since August about the need to prepare robust plans to help people through the winter months, after its research indicated that furloughed workers are three times more likely to have defaulted on at least one payment in the previous month. The consumer champion subsequently called for an extension of existing support measures until the start of next year.

However, the FCA has since announced that, from 1 November, lenders will be required to carry out assessments of individual circumstances in order to provide support, rather than consumers being able to self-report their financial difficulty.

Which? has serious concerns about the industry’s capacity to handle a potential deluge of requests for urgent assistance.

Recent research from the consumer champion found that 22 per cent of mortgage holders had contacted, or attempted to contact, their lender since the start of the pandemic and 61 per cent of those requested a payment holiday.

Worryingly, more than half (56%) reported having a problem doing this – with issues including long call wait times, and no responses to email or phone messages.

While it will always be better for a customer who can afford to continue to make payments towards their credit card or loan payments to do so, these figures suggest many people are struggling financially and will need support from their lender.

The consumer champion fears that the additional requirement to assess people’s personal circumstances could create a significant backlog with firms who are having to deal with consumers needing financial support as their payment holidays come to an end, and an additional influx of people seeking help after the government’s job retention scheme finishes on 31 October.

Which? does not want to see consumers denied support altogether, or facing delays that mean they are unable to access help before missing a payment. It believes the regulator should be prepared to move quickly to reintroduce measures similar to the original support if the industry struggles to cope with demand.

Which? is also opposed to a return of normal reporting of financial support on consumer credit files, as this risks pushing large numbers of people facing temporary financial hardship into long-term difficulties.

Currently, payment holidays are not marked on credit files as it has been acknowledged that these are exceptional circumstances. However after 31 October, if a lender offers a payment holiday or agrees an arrangement with a consumer to make reduced payments, these will be reported as missed payments.

Which? believes it is not fair to penalise customers who fall into financial difficulty at this stage of the pandemic through no fault of their own, when people who needed help at the start were able to take payment holidays without facing the same consequences.

Gareth Shaw, Head of Money at Which?, said: “This significant increase in missed payments is a warning sign that large numbers of people could be on the brink of really struggling financially, and it reinforces our concerns about the impact of the government, regulators and industry rolling back vital support.

“There is a real risk that the additional hurdles customers face could mean help is delayed, or impossible to access at all – which could leave many facing serious debt problems.

“Firms need to be proactive and flexible with people who need urgent help, and if there is evidence that customers can’t get the support they need quickly enough, the regulator must be prepared to introduce stronger measures.”

FCA confirms temporary financial relief for customers impacted by coronavirus

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has today confirmed a package of targeted temporary measures to help people with some of the most commonly used consumer credit products. 

Following a short consultation the FCA will be going ahead with the proposals outlined last week, which will give firms the flexibility under our rules to provide temporary financial relief to those facing payment difficulties during the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.

Christopher Woolard, interim Chief Executive at the FCA, said: ‘We know many people are suffering financial pressures brought on as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

“The measures we’ve announced are designed to provide people affected with short-term financial support through what could be a very difficult time. The changes will provide support for consumers with credit cards, loans and overdrafts, facing temporary financial difficulties because of the pandemic.

‘Customers should think carefully before making use of these measures and only do so if they need immediate help. Where they can still afford to make payments, they should continue to do so.

‘We know there is still more work to be done, and we will be announcing further measures to support consumers in other parts of the credit market in the future, including in the motor finance sector next week.’

The measures include firms being expected to:

  • offer a temporary payment freeze on loans and credit cards for up to three months, for consumers negatively impacted by coronavirus
  • allow customers who are negatively impacted by coronavirus and who already have an arranged overdraft on their main personal current account, up to £500 charged at zero interest for three months
  • make sure that all overdraft customers are no worse off on price when compared to the prices they were charged before the recent overdraft pricing changes came into force
  • ensure consumers using any of these temporary payment freeze measures will not have their credit file affected

The rule changes will be in force from today and the full range of measures will apply by Tuesday 14 April 2020.

This is to allow firms time to ensure they have the appropriate level of resources available to handle customer requests. All firms will be ready to receive customer requests by 14 April, although some firms including the major banks and building societies, will be adopting the changes today.

Consumers should check firm websites or social media posts for more information, and where possible use online services to request assistance.

This will reduce the pressure on firm call centres who are experiencing a high demand in calls due to the current pandemic situation. If consumers need to get in touch by telephone please be patient and, if you can, wait until after the Easter weekend, even if your lender is offering help sooner than the 14 April 2020.

In response to the consultation, the guidance now includes clarification on which products are in scope. In particular, the FCA are confirming that the following products are covered: guarantor loans, logbook loans, home collected credit, a loan issued by Community Development Finance Institution and some loans issued by credit unions, but only where these are regulated. The guidance also applies to firms which have acquired such loans.

These measures won’t replace normal forbearance rules where these would be more suitable for a consumer in serious and immediate financial difficulty. Consumers in financial difficulty should contact the Money Advice Service (MAS) for further guidance.

The FCA will keep this guidance under review.

Credit Card firms told to review their approach to persistent debt customers

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has written to credit card firms telling them to review their approach to borrowers who are stuck in persistent debt, where they are paying more in interest, fees and charges than they are paying of their balance.

The FCA require firms to help people who have been caught in a cycle of persistent debt for three years, by proposing and agreeing plans with customers to resolve the situation.

Ahead of firms issuing letters setting out proposals to customers who have been in persistent debt for three years, and to make sure the firms’ approaches to the rules are working in the best interest of consumers, the FCA is outlining a number of areas firms need to review and ensure their approach is in line with expectations.

This includes:

  • a concern that customers may not respond to letters from their credit card provider, advising that they have been in persistent debt for three years. Firms must encourage customers to speak with them to discuss potential repayment arrangements. If customers can’t afford the options proposed by the firm, they must be treated with forbearance and due consideration, for example, by reducing, waiving or cancelling any interest or charges.
  • a concern that firms may cancel or suspend credit cards for everyone in persistent debt, including those willing to engage and come to an agreement. In these circumstances, firms are not allowed to suspend a credit card without having an objectively justifiable reason.

Jonathan Davidson, Executive Director of Supervision for Retail and Authorisations at the FCA, said: ‘Under our rules, firms must help customers to reduce the level of debt they have on their credit card more quickly.

“If a customer cannot afford the firm’s proposals for how to do this, the firm must offer forbearance, potentially including reducing, waiving or cancelling any interest, fees or charges.

‘My advice to consumers is don’t bury your head in the sand. If you can’t afford to meet the repayment schedule that the credit card firm is suggesting, don’t be afraid to tell them. If we find firms are not offering their customers the appropriate level of help, we will not hesitate to take action.

‘If the firms do this right, we estimate that this could save customers up to £1.3bn a year in lower interest charges.’

Gareth Shaw, Head of Money, Which?, said: “Millions of people across the UK are trapped in persistent debt, so it’s right that the regulator is taking steps to encourage banks to help their customers break this cycle.

“It’s crucial that the industry properly engages with all those identified as needing help and offers manageable plans that include reductions, waivers and even the cancellation of charges and interest.

“The effects of living in persistent debt can be devastating, so it’s important that those who are likely to be impacted by the new rules take notice of how these new measures could affect their finances.”

Consumers concerned about persistent credit card debt and/or multiple credit cards they are dealing with, can get free debt advice from a range of support organisations including Granton Information Centre and Money Advice Service.

Personal debt continues to rise

Is household debt out of control?

According to the latest YouGov debt research commissioned by Equifax[1], 15% of UK adults have missed a payment on a credit card or short term loan at some point. Almost a third (32%) of UK adults with a credit card admit that, in a typical month, they don’t pay off their credit cards debts in full, with over half (52%) of these saying it’s because they can’t afford the full monthly balance. Continue reading Personal debt continues to rise

Putting a CAP on credit at Christmas

Charity offers top five frugal festive tips!

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Christians Against Poverty’s (CAP’s) three Edinburgh debt centres in Tollcross, Edinburgh North and Wester Hailes have joined forces to release their top five ways to have a perfect Christmas without resorting to credit.

The team have compiled the advice so families can avoid seasonal slip-ups that can result in a miserable New Year where debts can spiral.

Edinburgh North CAP Centre Manager Claire Baggaley said: “We’ve put out this advice because we know what huge pressure there is to buy lots at this time of year and we want to be a voice saying that it’s OK not to spend loads – especially if money is already tight.

“None of your family and none of your friends want you to struggle through January and February with essentials like paying your household bills because you spent lots on them.

“If you are thinking of a Christmas loan or maxing out the credit cards or overdraft, please re-consider and take action to avoid worry in 2016.”

Wester Hailes CAP Centre Manager, Margaret Farquhar added that if anyone is already struggling with debt to seek help from one of the free debt agencies.  CAP is one of these and can be contacted on 0800 328 0006.

  1. Talk to friends and family as soon as you can. Set a limit on what you spend, agree to do a family secret Santa where you all only buy one thing or agree to buy just for the children. If a child has their heart set on one big present, see if relatives will club together with you.
  2. Be bold if you’re doing the cooking this year and ask family if they would contribute something. Ask, “Can I leave you in charge of bringing the Christmas crackers/cake/pudding/drinks?”
  3. If there are people you really want to thank with a gift, consider making them something: Christmas biscuits, tablet, mince pies or home-made decorations for the tree. A home made gift and a thank you card will go a long way.
  4. Gift your time or talents in the form of a home-made voucher promising to bake their favourite cake on demand, do an hour’s ironing, babysitting, car wash or winter car check.
  5. Grasp every free activity going in your local community. Be there for the local Christmas lights switch on; attend the nativity at your kids’ school; see what your local church has on offer. See what you can do to help others and share the Christmas spirit.