Have you seen Michael?

Police are appealing for the assistance of the public to help trace 41-year-old Michael Meehan who has been reported missing from Edinburgh.

Michael was last seen around 3.30 pm on Thursday, 21 July, 2022 on Rose Street, Edinburgh.

He is described as white, of slim build, around 6ft tall, with short grey hair, few teeth and has bad sunburn and blisters to his face. He speaks with an Irish accent and was wearing a dark coloured jacket, tracksuit bottoms and trainers although it is thought he may actually be barefoot.

Sergeant Jonathan Wilson, Gayfield Police Station, said: “Since Mr Meehan was reported missing, officers have been checking CCTV and making local enquiries in Edinburgh City Centre and Portobello where he is known to frequent, however, there have been no further sightings of him.

“We are concerned for his health and well-being and would appeal to anyone who has seen him recently or who may have information as to where he is to get in touch with police.”

Information can be passed to officers via 101. Please quote reference number 2159 of Thursday, 21 July, 2022

7.2 million Cost of Living payments made to low-income families

Over 7.2 million payments of £326 have been made to help households through the UK government’s Cost of Living support.

  • 7.2 million payments of £326 – worth a total of £2.4bn – made in first week of Cost of Living support rollout
  • Payments mark the first half of the £650 Cost of Living payment for low-income families, with the second half coming in the autumn
  • Additional support for disabled people and pensioners will follow later this year

This means £2.4bn has been paid out to low-income families in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with the second instalment of £324 arriving later this year.

The first payments were made on 14 July 2022, meaning the government has paid on average over a million families every working day since then.

This is all part of the government’s £37 billion support package for households. Millions will get £1,200 this year to help them with rising costs, including this £650 payment, a £400 grant to help with energy bills, and a £150 Council Tax rebate for the 80% of households in bands A-D.

And in addition to this, nearly one in 10 people will get a £150 disability payment this autumn, while over eight million pensioner households could receive an extra £300 through their Winter Fuel Payments in November and December.

Work and Pensions Secretary, Thérèse Coffey said: “This government said that we would protect those on the lowest incomes, and we have delivered what we said with over 7 million households receiving £326 in the last week.

“There is more help to come for households, with the second half of the £650 payment arriving later this year and further payments for pensioners and disabled people also on the way.”

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Nadhim Zahawi said: “I know that people are finding things difficult with rising prices and increasing pressure on household budgets.

“That’s why we’re taking action to control inflation and providing immediate help for households. It’s so important that over 7 million vulnerable households have received £326 direct payments so far and there is also more help to come, with 8 million of the most vulnerable households receiving £1,200 of direct support to help with bills over the winter.”

In total, over eight million families will be eligible for this payment, with around one million eligible because they receive tax credits and no other eligible benefits. These families will receive their first instalment from HMRC in the autumn, and the second instalment in the winter.

DWP will administer payments for customers on all other eligible means-tested benefits, and no one needs to contact the government or apply for the payment at any stage.

Those who are eligible should look out in their bank accounts for a payment of £326 with the reference “DWP Cost of Living” in their bank accounts. This payment is made automatically, meaning no one has to apply or do anything to receive it.

Eligible claimants who have not received their payment yet should not be concerned, as the DWP expects some payments may take until 31 July 2022 to come through.

CCTV appeal following serious assault on High Street

Police have released CCTV images of a man they believe may be able to assist with enquiries into a serious assault in Edinburgh.

The incident happened on High Street near the junction with South Bridge at around 3.45am on Thursday, 19 May, 2022. As a result of the incident, a 22-year-old man was taken to hospital for treatment of serious injuries.

The man shown in the CCTV images is described as being white, of slim build, around 5ft 10in in height, aged 18 – 25 with shaved short brown hair.

At the time of the incident he was wearing a dark grey jacket, a grey Adidas hoody, grey jogging bottoms and black trainers.

Detective Constable Paul Henderson, of Edinburgh CID, said: “I would urge the man depicted in the images, or anyone who has information relating to him or to the incident, to contact police as soon as possible.

“Members of the public can contact Police Scotland via the 101 quoting reference number 0551 of Thursday, 19 May, 2022, or call Crimestoppers anonymously on 0800 555 111.”

Buzzin’: Bees’ Needs Week

At the start of Bees’ Needs Week, new research today (Monday 18 July) revealed that improving pollinator populations could help stabilise the production of important crops like oilseeds and fruit.

The new research, published by the University of Reading, found that crops visited by pollinators had more stable yields, with 32% less variation than those crops grown in the absence of pollinators.

Thousands of pollinators – bumblebees, butterflies, moths, flies and honeybees – are essential for food production and biodiversity. But they are under threat, facing growing challenges from climate change, pests and diseases, invasive species and habitat loss.

This year Bees’ Needs Week (18 – 24 July) makes a call on the public to take Five Simple Actions to help pollinators.

These actions are easy to do, and it doesn’t matter how much space is available – every action, big or small, counts. To sustain bee populations, everyone can:

  1. Grow more flowers, shrubs and trees
  2. Let your garden grow wild
  3. Cut your grass less often
  4. Don’t disturb insect nest and hibernation spots
  5. Think carefully about whether to use pesticides

Monitoring for insects in your local area is also a great way to help scientists understand what pollinator populations look like.

The Pollinator Monitoring Scheme is the first scheme in the world to generate data on the abundance of bees, hoverflies and other flower-visiting insects at a national scale. It will provide information that will help us measure trends in pollinator populations and target conservation efforts.

This summer, thousands of people will be taking part in a Flower-Insect-Timed Count (FIT Count) and as part of Bees’ Needs Week, the public are being encouraged to take part. Anyone can get involved by taking ten minutes to observe flowers and insects in good weather before sharing the information on the app.

FIT Counts can be completed anywhere, wherever there is an abundance of flowers, and every observation helps improve survey records and knowledge of pollinator activity.

https://youtu.be/FHIK5x8eMXo

Biodiversity Minister Lord Benyon said: “From bumblebees to moths and butterflies, pollinators are a critical part of our natural ecosystem, playing an essential role in upholding biodiversity and food production.

“Creating wildflower meadows, insect hotels or even a humble window box will boost nature. We can all play our part to support our vital pollinators.”

Marian Spain, chief executive of Natural England, said: “Pollinators are a crucial part of a healthy environment which we all depend on.

“There are many things we can do to help them thrive, from getting involved in monitoring their numbers to leaving any outdoor space we have to flourish. Collectively, even small actions all help pollinators do the job we need them to”.

Bees’ Needs Week, coincides with the ‘Superbloom’, a thriving natural landscape planted in the iconic moat at the Tower of London.

The University of Reading’s Bee Team will be on site today (Monday 18 July), showcasing their projects which display buzzing bumblebee colonies, the world of pollinators through the microscope, and activities to help the public to understand how everyday shopping relies on pollination.

Dr Jake Bishop, from the University of Reading’s Bee Team, who led the new study, said: “This research reminds us just how much we need to look after our pollinating heroes.

“Our study shows how important bees and pollinating insects are for our food security. Every gardener, farmer and landowner in the UK can make a big difference to bees by making small changes to how they mow, grow or spray.”

This Bees’ Needs Week, Defra will also be launching the 2022 Bees’ Needs Champions Awards which celebrate the outstanding action taken by community groups, businesses and farmers to protect pollinators.

To learn more about the awards and apply visit: Bees’ Needs – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Cool off at the Tee-Aff Terrace!

FREE COCKTAILS WHEN EDINBURGH HITS 20 DEGREES

Tee-ing off Scottish summertime in style, Fore Play Crazy Golf Edinburgh has revealed a brand new cocktail garden, the Tee-Aff Terrace, set to offer complimentary cocktails to customers every time Edinburgh’s weather reaches 20 degrees.

When things heat up in the city, guests can cool down with a complimentary cocktail at the Tee-Aff Terrace, complete with garden games including giant Connect 4, live DJs and a special outdoor bar.

The Tee-Aff Terrace will offer the free cocktail to every customer, every single time it reaches 20 degrees in Edinburgh until Sunday 31st July … so let’s hope that summer sunshine makes an appearance!

Available to walk-ins and bookings, customers playing at least one round of crazy golf can redeem their free cocktail as soon as Edinburgh heats up by visiting Fore Play’s front desk. Venue staff will verify the temperature each morning via Google forecast, and if Edinburgh is scheduled to reach 20 degrees Celsius at ANY point in the day, fans are in for a treat. Full Ts&Cs below. 

Fore Play Crazy Golf are ushering in Edinburgh’s long summer nights with their new cocktail garden, complete with deckchairs, an outdoor bar and summer decor galore, popping up at the venue until 28th August. Located in the heart of Edinburgh at Picardy Place, the Tee-Aff Terrace is sure to bring the summer vibes to the city, no matter the weather. 

The crazy golf venue is the city’s ultimate night out, offering Edinburgh-inspired crazy golf on ‘The Wee Bobby Course’,  delicious food and refreshing Pickering’s Gin cocktails at the Tee-Aff Terrace, with summer serves of the city’s best gin.

Serves will include Pickering’s Lime and Ginger Gin and Mexican Lime Soda, or a refreshing Pickering’s Raspberry and Mint Gin with Raspberry and Orange Blossom Soda. The Tee-Aff Terrace will also serve up Edinburgh Lager and Thistly Cross Cider as post-game refreshments. 

The Tee-Aff Terrace will host garden games including Corn Hole and Giant Connect 4, in case guests are still feeling competitive after a game of crazy golf or take a break and chill out on comfortable deckchairs. Amping up your weekend plans, the cocktail garden will also welcome the very best Edinburgh DJs each Saturday night to soundtrack the ultimate night out. 

Fans can tackle an Edinburgh themed crazy golf course, practising their swing at holes including Greyfriar’s Bobby or The Scott Monument. Fore Play Crazy Golf are also giving fans the chance to double the fun, with BOGOLF – two rounds of golf for the price of one each Wednesday – the perfect mid-week pick me up, with 50% off selected cocktails to match. 

Walk ins welcome, or book now at www.foreplaycrazygolf.co.uk 

Free Cocktail Ts&Cs:

Offer valid from Friday 15th July – Sunday 31st July (inclusive) at Fore Play Crazy Golf Edinburgh. Fore Play Crazy Golf venue teams will verify the Google forecast prior to opening and if it is scheduled to reach 20 degrees Celsius at any point that day it will constitute a “Free Cocktail Day”.

Customers must play a round of golf to qualify for free cocktail. Free cocktail is not exchangeable and subject to change. Standard terms apply, please drink responsibly.

HMRC: More than 33,600 tax credits customers use HMRC app to renew

More than 33,600 customers have successfully used the HMRC app to renew their tax credits claim so far this year, a 39% increase on last year, HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) has revealed.  

Tax credits help working families with targeted financial support, so it is important customers act now to renew before the quickly approaching 31 July deadline to ensure their payments don’t stop.

HMRC is encouraging more customers to use the highly-rated app as it is a quick and easy way to get this vital job done. 

It is free and simple to use and allows direct access to tax credits at the touch of a button. There are many benefits of the fully secure app, which can be used on any smartphone or tablet, at any time, eliminating the need to call HMRC and helping customers to save time and money.

Customers using the HMRC app can:

  • renew their tax credits
  • make changes to their claim
  • check their tax credits payments schedule, and
  • find out how much they have earned for the year

There are nearly 259,000 tax credits app users, who have used the app more than 10 million times in the last year to do things like check their payment dates and amount.

Myrtle Lloyd, HMRC’s Director General for Customer Services, said: “Time is running out for our tax credits customers to renew their claims. It’s quick, easy and free to complete a renewal on the HMRC app – search ‘HMRC’ in your smartphone app store.”

Customers can download the app at the App Store or Google Play. Online reviews at both indicate plenty of satisfaction with the app’s performance, as it currently holds a score of 4.5 stars on the App Store, and 4.7 on Google Play.

HMRC has released a video to explain how tax credits customers can use the HMRC app to view, manage and update their details.

Once signed into the app after initial download, there are options for users to set up and select facial recognition, a fingerprint or a 6-digit pin to get fast and fully secure access to their details.  

Customers can also renew their tax credits and manage their claims online on GOV.UK. Customers can log into GOV.UK to check on the progress of their renewal, be reassured it’s being processed and know when they’ll hear back from HMRC.

The UK Government has recently announced a Cost of Living Payment of £650, payable in two separate lump sums of £326 and £324, for households receiving certain benefits or tax credits, to help with the cost of living. If receiving tax credits only, they are eligible for each payment. HMRC will contact them and issue payments automatically, with the first being made by the autumn. Customers do not need to contact HMRC or apply for the payment.

More information on the Cost of Living Payment, including eligibility, is available on GOV.UK.

Tax credits are ending and will be replaced by Universal Credit by the end of 2024. Many customers who move from tax credits to Universal Credit could be financially better off and can use an independent benefits calculator to check. If customers choose to apply sooner, it is important to get independent advice beforehand as they will not be able to go back to tax credits or any other benefits that Universal Credit replaces.

As the deadline for renewals approaches, customers hurrying to sort out their accounts could be more vulnerable to scammers.

HMRC is warning people that if someone contacts them saying that they are from HMRC and wants the customer to transfer money urgently or give personal information, they should never let themselves be rushed. HMRC is also urging customers never to share their HMRC login details. Someone using them could steal from the customer or make a fraudulent claim in their name. 

The department urges people to take their time and check HMRC’s advice about scams on GOV.UK.


Find out more about renewing tax credits claims.

Proxy purchasing: It will cost you

Underage drinking plays a huge part in antisocial behaviour, crime and violence in local communities. One of the ways young people get their hands on alcohol is to ask an adult to buy it for them. This is called proxy purchasing – and it’s a criminal offence.

Buy alcohol for someone under 18 and you could face a fine of up to £5,000 or up to 3 months in prison. Or both.

For more information visit ⬇️

www.itwillcostyou.com/about

#ItWillCostYou

HMRC phishing scams – how to spot and avoid bogus communications

Fake emails, calls and messages suggesting they are from Her Majesty’s Revenue & Customs (HMRC) have grown exponentially in the last five years with many people falling foul to fraudsters.

Here, Perrys Chartered Accountants discusses the latest HMRC cyber scams doing the rounds and how to spot bogus communications:

In 2021, HMRC received more than 670,000 calls from individuals reporting tax scams. Despite a significant drop in reports to HMRC in recent months, statistics show that tax-related scams doubled during the pandemic and HMRC is still advising caution of any correspondence – particularly via text or email – implying it is from the tax authority.

Scams can come in many forms. However, the most common tactic used by fraudsters is contacting potential victims via automated messages. So, what should you look out for?

HMRC email scams

Phishing attacks aren’t new, but the tactics employed by fraudsters have become increasingly sophisticated over the years with many able to replicate email addresses from authorities, such as HMRC, that on first glance look bona fide.

These attacks aim to extract personal information and data from an individual that enables fraudsters to steal identities, bank details and more.

One such campaign doing the rounds is an email telling customers that they are eligible to receive an employment income support scheme credit during the COVID-19 pandemic. If you receive such an email, you should not reply to it, click on any links in the email or open any attachments. You should also avoid disclosing any personal or payment information. Instead, report it immediately to HMRC by emailing it to phishing@hmrc.gov.uk.

Fake tax rebates

Another common scam is the offer of a tax rebate either via text or email. HMRC will never contact anyone by text or email about tax rebates, so any messages received offering a refund will certainly be fake. If you receive any such message, do not reply but report it to HMRC and then delete it.

Be wary of website links and malicious web pages

HMRC will never ask you to click on a link to complete your details online to receive a rebate.

Web pages can also be dangerous with many fake sites cloning or copying official pages from HMRC’s website or claiming to be officially affiliated with the tax authority. To avoid being fooled by a fake website, always visit HMRC directly by typing the government’s official URL https://www.gov.uk/ into your browser.

HMRC text scams

HMRC will never ask for any personal or financial information when sending out texts. If you receive such a text, do not reply to it or open any links contained in the message. Instead, you can send any phishing text messages to HMRC using the text number 60599 or by emailing it to phishing@hmrc.gov.uk.

HMRC phone scams

Phone scams are performed using a variety of methods and are often used to target elderly and vulnerable people.

A popular way for fraudsters to target potential victims is by using an automated message. HMRC is aware of a scam which tells the receiver that they are the subject of a lawsuit and to press 1 to speak to a caseworker to make a payment. This is false. If you receive such a call, you should end it immediately.

Other similar scams might refer to National Insurance number fraud or tax refunds and will ask you to supply bank or credit card information. If you are at all unsure, or you cannot verify the caller, hang up and report it to Action Fraud.

When reporting phone scams, you should include the date of the call, the phone number used to contact you and what the call was about. You can also contact HMRC directly on its phone number 0300 200 3310 to verify the legitimacy of any calls you receive alleging to be from the authority.

HMRC WhatsApp scams

HMRC will never use WhatsApp to contact customers about a tax refund. If you receive any such communication via WhatsApp saying it is from HMRC, you should report it immediately by emailing HMRC and then delete it.

HMRC social media scams

One of the most recent social media scams being used to con people is the distribution of direct messages via Twitter offering a tax refund. These messages are not genuine and HMRC will never use social media platforms, such as Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and LinkedIn, to offer tax rebates or request personal information. Ignore all such messages and report them to HMRC straight away.

HMRC refund companies

Refund companies that send emails or texts advertising their services and offering to apply for a tax rebate on your behalf in return for a fee are not connected with HMRC in any way. Before using any such service, you should read the company’s terms and conditions or disclaimers and think carefully before instructing them to assist you. If in doubt, contact a professional accountant for advice.

HMRC customs duty scams

Changes officially introduced by HMRC on 1 January 2021 mean that some UK consumers buying goods from EU businesses might need to pay customs charges when their goods are delivered. This change in regulations has resulted in a surge of associated email and text scams asking for customs duty payments.

Customers are contacted via false emails or texts and told they must pay customs duty to receive a valuable parcel which doesn’t exist. If you are not expecting any parcel or if you are in any doubt as to the authenticity of such messages, then do not reply. Instead, you should report any suspicious activity to HMRC immediately by emailing phishing@hmrc.gov.uk.

University students taking part-time jobs

According to HMRC, undergraduates taking part-time jobs are at increased risk of falling victim to scams – particularly if they are new to interacting with the tax authority and unfamiliar with its processes.

Between April and May 2021, more than 5,000 phone scams were reported to HMRC by 18 to 24 year olds. The advice is to be wary if you are contacted out of the blue by someone asking for money or personal information.

Mike Fell, Head of Cyber Security Operations of HMRC, said: “We see high numbers of fraudsters contacting people claiming to be from HMRC. If in doubt, our advice is – do not reply directly to anything suspicious, but contact HMRC through GOV.UK straight away and search GOV.UK for ‘HMRC scams’.

For further information and guidance about HMRC phishing scams, visit HMRC’s official web page https://www.gov.uk/topic/dealing-with-hmrc/phishing-scams.

New poll finds 7 in 10 adults want social media firms to do more to tackle harmful content

Ipsos study finds over 4 in 5 adults are concerned about harmful content online

  • 68 per cent want more action from social media firms on racism, homophobia and misogyny on their platforms
  • Comes as the Online Safety Bill moves to Report Stage in the House of Commons this week

A clear majority of the public want social media companies to do more to protect their users from harmful content, according to new research published today.

Polling by Ipsos shows over four in five (84 per cent) adults in the UK are concerned about seeing harmful content – such as racism, misogyny, homophobia and content that encourages self-harm – with two in five (38 per cent) reporting having seen it in the last month. This comes as the Online Safety Bill moves to Report Stage in Parliament this week.

The government commissioned study found strong public support for the measures contained in the Bill. For instance, seven in ten adults (68 per cent) believe social media companies should do more to protect people online.

Four in five adults (78 per cent) want social media companies to be clear about what sort of content is and isn’t allowed on their platform.

In a stark warning to social media companies, 45 per cent of respondents also said they will leave or reduce the amount of time they spend on their platforms if they see no action.

Digital Secretary Nadine Dorries said: “Online abuse has a devastating impact on people’s lives, and these findings definitively show the public back our plans which will force social media companies to step up in keeping their users safe.

“It is clear people across the UK are worried about this issue, and as our landmark Online Safety Bill reaches the next crucial stage in Parliament we’re a big step closer to holding tech giants to account and making the internet safer for everyone in our country.”

The survey also found that women have high levels of concern about legal but harmful content, with 45 per cent feeling unsafe when talking to people on dating or messaging apps.

Most women (65 per cent) agree there should be limits to the types of content people can post online. Nearly half (47 per cent) of those living in households with at least one child report having seen abusive content in the last month.

The safety of women and girls across the country is a top priority. The measures we’re introducing through the Online Safety Bill will mean tech companies have to tackle illegal content and activity on their services, women will have more control over who can communicate with them and what kind of content they see on major platforms, and they will be better able to report abuse.

In addition, we are continuing to implement our Tackling Violence Against Women and Girls (VAWG) strategy to bring about real and lasting change offline as well as online.

The Online Safety Bill was introduced to Parliament in March and is a major milestone in the government’s mission to make the UK the safest place in the world to be online. The new laws will protect children, tackle illegal content and protect free speech, as well as requiring social media platforms to uphold their stated terms and conditions.

If they don’t, the regulator Ofcom will work with platforms to ensure they comply and will have the power to fine companies up to ten per cent of their annual global turnover – which could reach billions of pounds – to force them to fulfil their responsibilities or even block non-compliant sites.

When the Bill comes into force, firms will be required to identify and implement solutions to protect their users. Firms hosting content that is harmful to children such as pornography, will have to prevent them from accessing it, for example by using age verification.

Social media platforms will also be required to safeguard people’s free speech, and their access to journalism and content that is democratically important. The poll follows the announcement of a series of amendments to the Bill last week to strengthen protections for freedom of speech, including tougher protections to guard against the arbitrary removal of articles from recognised news outlets shared on social media.

Last week the government published the list of legal but harmful content social media companies will need to address under the Online Safety Bill.

The categories consist of types of online abuse and harassment which can fall below the threshold of a criminal offence, but which still cause significant harm to adults online such as misogyny, homophobia and content that encourages self-harm.

This threshold is important to ensure that the online safety framework focuses on content and activity which poses the most significant risk of harm to UK users online. 

Free speech within the law can involve the expression of views that some may find offensive, but a line is crossed when disagreement mutates into abuse or harassment, which refuses to tolerate other opinions and seeks to deprive others from exercising their free speech and freedom of association.

Glenigan forecasts Construction Sector return to growth by 2023

Glenigan, one of the construction industry’s leading insight and intelligence experts, has released its UK Construction Industry Forecast 2022-2024.

The key takeaway from this Forecast, which focuses on the next three years (2022-2024) indicates the construction industry will face challenging economic conditions.

However, whilst growth will be stifled in 2022 (-2%), 2023 is predicted to see a modest 8% increase and a smaller 2% lift in 2024, representing an average rise of 2.6% over the Forecast period.

Glenigan Forecast 2022_Value of Underlying Project Starts.png

This report is predominantly focused on underlying starts (< £100m in value), unless otherwise stated, and contains a comprehensive overview of the current state of the construction industry. Crucially, it provides overall sector and vertical-specific insight into performance over the next few years.

Significant disruption stifles short-term growth

The next few years will be challenging for the construction industry as a whole. The war in the Ukraine is creating considerable economic uncertainty which is having a direct, current effect on output, derailing post-COVID recovery. As a result, overall project starts are forecast to slip back 2%.

Aside from this ongoing conflict, current inflation spikes, higher taxes and rising mortgage costs are expected to constrain activity in consumer-related areas, such as private housing, retail and hotel & leisure.

In contrast, a firm development pipeline is predicted to lift industrial and office starts in 2022, as well as Government-funded areas such as education, health and community & amenity.

More positively, the value of project starts is expected to rise in 2023, as the UK economy stabilises and short-term supply chain pressure ease. However the lingering impact of higher construction, material and energy costs means this growth will be significantly lower than predicted in previous forecasts.

Glenigan Forecast 2022_Value of Underlying Project Starts By Sector.png

Housing Starts Depressed

Although a buoyant housing marked helped to lift new housebuilding activity in 2021, with starts rising 26%, this recent surge is fading.

Predicted to drop 5% in 2022, following the removal of temporary Stamp Duty relief and dwindling homebuyer confidence, higher taxes and mortgage costs, housebuilders are expected to moderate project starts and focus on building out developments already on-site.

However, this slowdown appears temporary, with a renewed build-for-sale starts recovery anticipated in the second half of the Forecast period, rising 14% in 2023 and 1% in 2024, as household financial positions and UK economic prospects improve. Furthermore, a strong development pipeline has also be registered for Build-to-Rent starts, following a productive 12 months in 2021.

Glenigan Forecast 2022_Growth in Value of Underlying Project Starts By Sector.png

Bright spots for non-residential work

Industrial starts, particularly warehouse and logistics, are set to remain a growth area, building on the ever-increasing appetite for online retail, which accelerated during the pandemic. With e-commerce expected to be a significant growth market in the coming years, 2022 will see start value increase by 11%.

However, the online shopping boost has hit physical retail hard, with high street and outlet footfall remaining far lower than pre-pandemic levels. Unsurprisingly, lower consumer spending power, an overhang of empty retail premises and a greater share of the market moving online, means growth will be tempered over the Forecast period. Here, increased investment by the deep discount supermarkets, Aldi and Lidl, will be the primary drivers of the predicted 6% average uplift between 2022 and 2024.

The leisure and hospitality sector, hit hard by the pandemic, is also only set to expect modest recovery over the Forecast period due to reduced consumer discretionary spending during a tighter economic climate.

Moving from play to work, office starts bounced back sharply last year (+27%) and are predicted to benefit over the forecast period (av. +11%). This potential growth can be attributed to a rise in refurbishment projects as tenants and landlords adapt premises to accommodate changing working practices. However, new build office projects will likely be slower to recover as tenants and developers assess the effects of the shift towards remote and hybrid working on the long-term demand for office accommodation.

Public Sector Pick-Up

Public sector investment is set to be an important driver for construction activity over the Forecast period. However, the latest Spending Review revealed only modest growth in capital funding for a handful of central Government departments over the next three years.

Whilst the value of social housing starts is set to dip almost 10% this year, following a 15% surge in 2021, the vertical is predicted to rally for the remainder of the Forecast period, helped by a strong pipeline of already approved projects commencing on site.

Education construction is a vertical predicted to grow significantly over the next few years (av. +8%), partly driven by the Government’s commitment to building 500 new schools over the next decade. This is supported by a modest rise in universities capital spending during the second half of the Forecast period

The outlook for the health sector is also brightening. Starts remained high in 2021 post-Pandemic and the increase in capital funding and a growing development pipeline means the value of starts are expected to remain steady over the Forecast period, will slight declines this year (-5%) and next (-6%) .

Focusing on civils and infrastructure, a significant funding increase in areas such as roads, especially to address the maintenance backlog on the nation’s local roads, is helping to lift the value of project starts.

Investment in rail projects and utilities development, as well as ongoing work on major infrastructural projects such as Thames Tideway, HS2 and Hinkley Point are also set to support vertical activity over the Forecast period.

Commenting on the Forecast, Glenigan’s economic director Allan Wilen says, “Circumstances have changed significantly since the November 2021 Forecast and, whilst the short-term picture appears challenging, we should adopt a sanguine approach for the next few years.

“Markets sent into turmoil by the Russia-Ukraine War are starting to stabilise as new supply chain solutions are developed and established.

“Of course, in the near future construction and building product costs will remain high. However this situation will no doubt encourage a burst of imagination and innovation which will see the sector weather the current storm and progress to, if not sunny uplands, then at least towards a trajectory of upward growth.”

To download Glenigan’s UK Construction Industry Forecast 2022-2024 click here.

To find out more about Glenigan, its expert insight and leading market analysis, click here.