“There must be a point where we go beyond analysis and accept that this is a serious problem that needs urgent political action”

RCEM responds to new ONS research into deaths linked to long A&E stays

Comprehensive new statistical analysis of the link between long stays in A&E and the associated risk of dying, confirms the huge threat to life the issue creates – and must be a catalyst for political action.  

That’s the call from the Royal College of Emergency Medicine following the release of a defining new study by the Office for National Statistics – the UK’s official statistical authority – which was published yesterday (17 January 2025).  

The research examined the cohort of people who required non-immediate care and were treated, admitted or discharged alive from an A&E in England between 21 March 2021 and 30 April 2022.  

It concludes that patients who wait in A&E for more than two hours are exposed to an increasing risk of death.  

And by the time a patient reaches a stay of more than 12 hours in an Emergency Department, they are twice as likely to die within 30 days as those treated, admitted or discharged within two hours.  

This is even after accounting for differences in case mix and other important factors such as age.  

Although using different methodology, and looking at different patient groups, the ONS data supports the conclusion of the Jones and Moulton Study from 2023.  

Using that research, it can be calculated that in 2023 there were almost 14,000 deaths associated with long ED stays before admission.  

Dr Adrian Boyle, President of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, said: “This is a seminal piece of work by the ONS, the authoritative national voice of data, which validates and reinforces what we know; long waits in the ED are extremely dangerous and a significant threat to patient safety. We thank the ONS team for their hard work and diligence.  

“Hundreds of deaths each week are associated with long waits in A&E – each one someone’s loved one – mums, dads, sisters, brothers, grandparents. 

“We focus on the four-hour target for admission, treatment or discharge – but we have to acknowledge that this standard was put in place before 12, 24 and even 48 hour stays became common. Things have deteriorated significantly, and the system must accept that and respond to it.   

“There must be a point where we go beyond analysis and accept that this is a serious problem that needs urgent political action. 

“This data is too compelling to ignore and must be the catalyst for change.”   

The ONS study comes just a day after the Royal College of Nursing published its own harrowing findings detailing the reality of corridor care in our health care, including the horrifying testimonies of more than 5,000 frontline nurses.