October House Price Index from Walker Fraser Steele
- Prices rising in 29 Local Authorities over the year
- East Ayrshire has largest annual growth on the mainland at 14.9%
- Record prices in 10 high-value areas
- 2022 likely to see greatest number of sales in excess of £750k
Table 1. Average House Prices in Scotland for the period October 2021 – October 202
Scott Jack, Regional Development Director at Walker Fraser Steele, comments: “The housing market across the UK has endured a tumultuous time over the past couple of months and yet – notwithstanding the stresses it has been under – our data reveals that average house prices in Scotland in October rose by some £700, or by 0.3%.
“We think two things have influenced this figure. Firstly, the lack of supply of the right kind of properties, those with more space for working and living from home, persists which supports the average price in general. This continued demand has to a degree provided some protection from the more challenging economic turmoil in September.
“But there is another factor to consider. Current buyers who secured finance before the financial markets’ turbulence in September stayed the course to see through their purchases.
“Our sales data from the property purchases recorded by the Office for National Statistics uses the date that a purchaser takes ownership – so decisions to buy made in August and early September, for example, may be coming through in October.
“We can be confident that many buyers were keen to continue with a purchase agreed before September’s financial chaos, as they almost certainly had been offered favourable mortgage rates by lenders.
“These two elements in concert have supported demand for properties with the average house price in Scotland rising to £224,593, establishing a new record level. Over the twelve months to the end of October, prices have risen by some £14,100, or 6.7%.”
Commentary: John Tindale, Acadata Senior Housing Analyst
The October housing market
September and October 2022 proved to be a somewhat tumultuous period in UK politics. There was the arrival of Liz Truss as Prime Minister on 6th September 2022, followed shortly thereafter by the death of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth on 8th September at Balmoral.
Politics were then put on hold for the period of national mourning, culminating in the Queen’s funeral on 19th September at Westminster and Windsor Castle. This was then followed by the mini-budget, put together by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, and delivered on 23rd September – this resulted in Sterling crashing to a new low, with inflation rates rising to levels not seen for forty years.
Kwasi Kwarteng was sacked as chancellor on 6th October, to be replaced by Jeremy Hunt – with Liz Truss departing her post as Prime Minister on 20th October, to be replaced by Rishi Sunak.
It is therefore somewhat surprising to discover that, amid all these unsettling events, average house prices in Scotland in October rose by some £700, or by 0.3%. There are perhaps some clarifying factors that might explain this increase in prices.
Firstly, the matter of timing. The purchase of a property will typically take a few months to complete, from the initial decision to buy, to the official date of entry into one’s chosen home. (When recording property purchases the ONS and Acadata use the “date of entry” as the point of sale.)
It is therefore quite possible that “October sales” are reflecting August market sentiment. Indeed, there are instances where buyers have been keen to continue with a purchase agreed before September, as the favourable mortgage rates offered by the lenders were fixed for a period of five years, providing that the property in question remained the subject of the loan.
In addition, some of the factors that resulted in the decision to purchase a home in the first instance continued, even in the changed environment – such as the desire for space, and the problem of few suitable properties being placed on the market. Demand for properties therefore remained significant, with the average house price in Scotland rising to £224,593, establishing a new record level. Over the twelve months to the end of October, prices have risen by some £14,100, or 6.7%.
Figure 1. The annual rate of house price growth in Scotland over the period October 2020 to October 2022
The RICS Residential Market Survey for October suggests that the home sales market continued to lose momentum amid deteriorating macro conditions, with indicators on new instructions and agreed sales remaining negative.
The report did however advise that respondents based in Scotland continued to report a reasonably firm upward trend in house prices continuing, even if the pace of growth was softer than earlier in the year. This is in line with our own findings, derived from the price data supplied by RoS, which includes all domestic transactions based on both cash and mortgage sales.
Sales of high-value properties in the first ten months of 2022 are at a record high, with few indications that the pace of such sales is diminishing. The three highest-value local authorities in Scotland, of Edinburgh, East Lothian and East Renfrewshire, each set a new record average house price in October.
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