EVE OF POLL REFLECTIONS
IT’S been the dullest election I can remember. Yes, you can blame COVID, but pandemic aside, it’s hardly been riveting, has it?
Even the return of Alex Salmond – mair comebacks than Frank Sinatrawifie said – did little to raise excitement levels to anything above ‘mildly interesting’. The one memorable moment of the campaign for me was not Anas Sarwar’s dad dancing, it was ‘Gorgeous George’ Galloway’s party election broadcast. I haven’t a clue what it was all about, but it was unforgettable nonetheless.
The Leader Debates were dominated by middle class blokes in ties (occasionally during they were slightly risqué and removed the neckwear to show that they are ordinary blokes just like us). The ties – like the rosettes – are a different colour, but they are still ties. The uniform. All in this together? You bet they are, mired in identikit neo-liberal politics that will change little for the most disadvantaged.
The debates looked like the sort of middle-management meeting that might take place in any big bank or insurance company.
And the women must also play the game. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, serious, statesmanlike (should that be statespersonlike?), looking to be given the opportunity to ‘get on with the job’. No tie, but the smart business suits are a model of conservatism. More of the same, we’re promised. There’s more to do, we’re told. Trust me, she appeals.
There’s every indication that the public do indeed trust Nicola Sturgeon. The unpleasant uncertainties of the Salmond affair have barely left a mark, and confident daily press briefings throughout the pandemic – much as she would say it is the last thing she would have wanted – has given Ms Sturgeon a platform other politicians would dream of.
She has undoubtedly come out of the worst of the pandemic with her reputation enhanced; seen as a safe and steady pair of hands throughout the crisis while Prime Minister Boris Johnson bumbled and blundered from one self-inflicted crisis to another.
Scots voters will deliver their verdict tomorrow but it seems inevitable that a grateful nation will reward Ms Sturgeon’s apparent competence with a further five year term. True, the government’s rhetoric was seldom matched by concrete achievements over the last five years, but many voters will see this as a time for continuity as we plan our way back to some semblance of normality. Conservative with a small ‘c’. And anyway, what’s the alternative?
New Labour (in both senses) leader Anas Sarwar unilaterally declared a new kind of politics. A break from the past, just as Sarwar is a break from the recent socialist past of Jeremy Corbyn and Ricard Leonard. Let’s put the politics of division behind us, he appealed. We must focus on Scotland’s National Recovery, he said. Trouble is, so did everyone else, including Nicola Sturgeon. Indeed, is there anyone in the land who would argue with that?
Certainly not Lib Dem leader, he of the famous photoshoot stunts but not a lot else, Willie Rennie. Or Patrick Harvie. Or Douglas Ross. All agree – the national recovery must be paramount, they sing from the same hymn-sheet.
And maybe that’s the problem: there’s nothing new here. Nothing radical. Nothing different. Nothing to fire up passion and nothing that will shake voters from their apathy.
Opposition parties should have started the election campaign on the front foot, but right from the start of the election campaign, just days after a weakened Nicola Sturgeon survived accusations of misleading parliament during the Salmond Affair, it was back to business as usual – and the opposition parties retreated into their deferential, subservient roles.
Quickly out of the starting blocks, Labour proclaimed: ‘We want to be the official opposition!’ Hardly the sparkiest motivator for the troops out on the streets delivering leaflets, is it? ‘Vote for us – we’re nearly second best!’ Honestly, who wants to be Number Two? Well, Labour does. That is the limit of their ambitions – to defeat the Tories and finish second. Even a distant second would do.
For present-day Labour – a party that dominated Scottish politics for generations – second place would be seen, and spun, as progress. Opinion polls suggest that even that target has proved beyond them this time round, however. And they can’t even blame Corbyn.
The Tories know that their best hope of progress – finishing second again, that is (even the most loyal true-blue zealots dismiss the idea that they could do any better than that!) – lies in the top-up lists whereby MSPs gain seats, almost through the back door, in Holyrood’s hybrid proportional representation voting system.
While the SNP government’s shortcomings have been increasingly documented – education, drug deaths, starving local government of adequate funding, to name but three – the Tories decided instead to concentrate their fire on another independence referendum!
It’s their tried and tested strategy: only by voting for us can you stop a ‘damaging referendum’, they claim. They can’t – it’s uncertain now that their London bosses would even try – but the argument seems to be a compelling one for unionists in Scotland: no matter how bad the SNP government is in Holyrood, they have the comforting certainty of remaining part of the UK.
Turning the election into a straight Independence vs Union choice suits the Tories down to the ground: the Conservative and Unionist Party is surely the party anxious voters will turn to again in the fight to preserve the union? The clue’s in the name!
And you don’t even have the inconvenience of having to come up with policies to address the nitty-gritty of domestic politics. So ‘Stop The Referendum’ is the simple Tory message – and this despite some frustrated nationalists arguing that there seems to be little appetite among the SNP leadership for an early referendum anyway!
So while we know that the SNP will almost certainly be the biggest party following tomorrow’s elections, there are some things we do not know. Most importantly, will the SNP gain an overall majority?
Scotland will elect 129 MSPs tomorrow. 73 of these are constituency MSPs who are elected using the traditional ‘First Past the Post’ method.
The other 56 are ‘List’ MSPs who are elected through the Additional Member system of proportional representation. Scotland is split into eight regions, each of which will elect seven list MSPs.
To form a majority government a party must win at least 65 seats. The SNP won 63 seats in the 2016 elections and formed a minority administration with the support of the independence-supporting Scottish Greens. So near but yet so far – can the SNP reach that magic number this time round?
Other issues of interest: Will Alex Salmond’s Alba party win any seats? And, if so, will the SNP hold their noses and do a deal with them to advance the case for another referendum should they need to do so?
Alba has argued, with some justification, that a vote for the SNP on the peach ballot paper is effectively a wasted vote as the SNP is expected to hoover up the vast majority of constituencies so will gain few list seats. Will nationalist voters take heed to ensure a ‘supermajority’ or take their chances with an SNP1, 2?
One thing is certain. There will be a lot of new faces in the new Holyrood Parliament. No fewer than 33 MSPs have stood down and will not contest tomorrow’s election. That’s a lot of experience to lose as the new parliament attempts to formulate a strategy for post-pandemic recovery.
Among the best known are Jeane Freeman, Aileen Campbell and Mike Russell of the SNP, Tories Ruth Davidson and Margaret Mitchell, Labour’s Neil Findlay and Iain Gray, Green John Finnie and Lib Dem Mike Rumbles. Presiding Officer Ken Mackintosh also steps down.
Also leaving at last are ‘Independent’ MSPs Derek Mackay and Mark McDonald, former SNP Ministers who left office in disgrace but doggedly held on to their Holyrood seats – and £64,470 annual salaries – until the bitter end.
Here’s hoping the new parliament can agree cross-party legislation to ensure that democratic disgraces like these will not be allowed to happen again.
So good luck to all the candidates as they deliver their final leaflets this evening. None will sleep too well tonight, whether you have the biggest majority in Scotland or you are standing for the very first time in an ‘unwinnable’ seat. It’s the adrenaline!
They will all be up at the crack of dawn to get their A-boards out at the polling stations, hoping for decent weather – we had some snow and hail flurries in Edinburgh today – to encourage a good voter turnout. It will be a long day – and then there’s the long wait until Friday’s count, so a second night of troubled sleep ahead!
Locally, it’s hard to see any shock results, but Edinburgh Central – Ruth Davidson’s seat before she left for that lucrative, unelected retirement home, the House of Lords – will be interesting. Can the Tories hold on to this SNP target seat?
Other seats to keep an eye on are East Lothian (Labour seat; SNP target), Airdrie & Shotts (SNP held; Labour target), Moray (SNP seat; Tory target), Dumbarton (Labour; SNP target) and Perthshire North (SNP; Tory target).
Whoever you support, do use your votes.
Polling stations are open from 7am – 10pm.
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