We are extremely disappointed that the possible opening of gyms in Scotland has been delayed until September 14th.
We know that the majority of our Scottish members (over 120,000 of them across 24 gyms!) are desperate to get back to their gyms to improve their physical and mental wellbeing and they, and the whole gym and fitness centre industry in Scotland, will be as disappointed as we are.
We have a vital role to play in the fight against obesity which is a public health challenge in Scotland and right across the UK.
More broadly, it strikes us as truly extraordinary that, in the middle of a health crisis, the First Minister and her team have not ascribed any real priority to working with us and our sector to understand our capacity to help provide for the better health and well-being of the Scottish people at this time.
Her approach seems to be in direct contrast to other countries. For example, our gyms in Switzerland are in their 12th week of opening and in Denmark we are in our 7th week after opening.
Across those countries, we have welcomed over 3 million visitors since reopening. We have been audited and visited by police and authorities in those countries on dozens of occasions and passed every test.
As far as we know, there have been no incidents of transmission or infection in our facilities – and both Denmark and Switzerland have good “track and trace” systems and tracing Apps operating.
Furthermore, we reopened gyms in Northern Ireland 3 weeks ago and in England this week and these re-openings have met with strong local support for the access to exercise and much consumer praise for the protocols, standards and safety processes that have been implemented.
In prior speeches the First Minister has alluded to “evidence” that gyms are a problem and in her speech she referenced “clinical advice” that gyms pose a “particular risk”.
We acknowledge that there are problems, challenges and risks in all areas of society at the moment – and gyms have their own specific risks of course. That is precisely why we and the entire gym and fitness industry have invested huge effort and rigour in devising safety protocols and procedures that materially reduce the risk of viral transmission.
These protocols are now allowing hundreds of thousands of people in the UK and across Europe to reap the mental and physical benefits of exercise without exposing themselves to undue risk.
We urge the Scottish authorities to share openly relevant evidence and the cited clinical advice but above all to work with our sector to understand the approaches to risk mitigation which we have successfully implemented in other countries and which stand ready to benefit the people of Scotland.
Our gyms at PureGym are, on average, the size of five or six doubles tennis courts and are exceptionally well ventilated, enabling people to work and exercise safely and securely.
Through our existing electronic entry system, we know the names and details of every single member in our facilities at any moment so can exercise tight control over attendance. As well as being staffed at all opening times we also monitor behaviour inside the gyms on CCTV so we are well prepared to oversee and enforce social distancing.
We have developed detailed, industry-agreed guidance and are confident gyms are safe places to work and safe places to workout. The protocols which have been developed with the input of recognised medical experts – cover all aspects of hygiene, disinfection, access control, physical separation, number limitations per venue, monitoring and oversight, education and training.
In summary, we urgently call on the First Minister to re-examine the current, factual evidence, engage with us and our industry bodies, and allow the Scottish people back into gyms as soon as possible so that we can support them in living happier and healthier lives.
Sir Graham Watson, former Liberal leader in the European Parliament has said that Brexit will mean that Scottish independence is “inevitable” and will see Scotland joining the EU as an independent member state.
He told a European Movement in Scotland webinar: “I see no reason to fear that provided Scotland is prepared for it.” But he warned: “I see precious little of that preparation going on, sadly” and accused the Scottish Government of “dither and drift.”
Sir Graham, who lost his MEP seat in 2014 and is now based in Edinburgh and Brussels, suggested that Scotland currently resembled more Slovakia than Denmark given its poor record on productivity and export trade and urged the Scottish Government to set up new “hubs” in Bratislava, the Slovak capital, as well as in Copenhagen and Helsinki in order to boost economic links.
Hubs already exist in Berlin, Paris and Dublin. He suggested Scotland might join the Nordic Council but rejoining the EU via the European Economic Area, he argued, was a “pipe-dream.”
Former SNP MP and Europe spokesman in the Commons, Stephen Gethins, urged business, universities and local authorities to invest in Scotland House, the Scottish Government centre in Brussels, and in wider links with the EU and Europe.
Demand for food packs highlights impact of the pandemic.
Homeless people and others affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak are to receive further support through the Scottish Government’s emergency funding for communities.
In March, Communities Secretary Aileen Campbell announced a £350 million package of funding to help tackle harms caused by the pandemic, including a £70 million Food Fund. More than £40 million extra funding has since been committed for food initiatives, increasing the total to £110 million.
Social enterprise Social Bite has been awarded an additional £48,500 for its COVID-19 response, with its funding since April now totalling £700,000. Its team have delivered 500,000 food packs and meals to people in need in Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow since April.
Speaking following a visit to Social Bite’s central kitchen in Livingston, Ms Campbell said: “Like many community groups and charities, Social Bite’s team have worked hard making and delivering meals as well as offering a free takeaway service for those most at risk. I want to thank everyone who has supported people through this time.
“Sadly, the demand for such services highlights the terrible impact of the pandemic on people from all walks of life.
“We have provided flexibility through our £110 million funding to tackle food insecurity so people can access both cash and food-based support. This includes funding for free school meals over the summer holidays, food boxes for those who were shielding and support for people facing financial hardship. We have also more than doubled the Scottish Welfare Fund.
“Anyone worried about being able to access food should contact the National Helpline on 0800 111 4000.”
Josh Littlejohn, co-founder and CEO of Social Bite, said: “As soon as the pandemic hit, we saw that food poverty was going to be a major issue for our most vulnerable communities, so we re-purposed Social Bite’s entire infrastructure to provide free food for those who needed it.
“Thanks to support from the Scottish Government, the business community and the public, we were able to mobilise extremely quickly. Since the pandemic began, we have distributed more than 500,000 food packs. This funding will help us provide further support for homeless people and other vulnerable groups in our communities amid the acute challenges of COVID-19.”
Almost200,000 people have signed a Electoral Reform Society petition calling for the unelected House of Lords to be overhauled.
The Prime Minister is set to pack the House of Lords with yet more unelected peers. And discontent is growing.
As the Mirror reported this week, anger is rising at Boris Johnson’s plan to stuff the chamber with appointees.
There is concern across the spectrum. The Conservative-leaning Spectator points out: “It is no credit to British democracy that we have the second largest legislative chamber in the world. The only one larger than the 792-strong House of Lords is the 2,980-member Chinese National People’s Congress.
“In the coming days the House of Lords will grow even bigger as the Prime Minister announces another batch of peerages. We can expect a bad-tempered reaction if, as expected, a slew of Brexit campaigners such as Ian Botham are included while former speaker John Bercow is left out.”
The magazine cites ERS research showing that: “It is genuine participation that matters, and in this some have a lamentable record. The Electoral Reform Society found that in the 2016/17 session, 115 peers failed to speak in a single debate — and yet they claimed £1.3 million in expenses between them.”
Even the Lords themselves are getting restless. The PM’s peers list will reverse years of attempts to check numbers, according to the Lord Speaker, as we revealed this week.
Voters are not happy about the bloated and unelected state of the House of Lords.
Nearly 200,000 have signed a petition calling for an overhaul – for it to be scrapped and replaced with a proportionally-elected second chamber that is fit for purpose: rather than a private member’s club for the PM’s pals.
Sign it here – and let’s get this to 200,000 signatures.
Commenting on the 36 new appointments to the House of Lords, Darren Hughes, Chief Executive of the UK’s leading democracy campaign group the ERS said:
“Based on the average claim of a peer, the 36 new peers are likely to cost around £1.1m a year in expenses from the taxpayer [2].
“By appointing a host of ex-MPs, party loyalists and his own brother, the PM is inviting total derision. That he can get away with it shows what a private member’s club this house is.
“The Lords was already the largest second chamber in the world. There are now over 800 unelected peers, voting on our laws for life.
“Is packing the Lords with party loyalists really a priority, as a pandemic rages across the world? This move is an absolute insult to voters. This is making a mockery of democracy.
“Today marks a nail in the coffin for the idea that the Lords is some kind of independent chamber of experts. It is a house of cronies and party loyalists – we need to see it scrapped and replaced with a fair-elected chamber that’s fit for a democracy.”
Among the new Peers are Theresa May’s husband Philip – for political service (!), Boris Johnson’s brother Joseph and former Tory party leader in Scotland Ruth Davidson.
THE HOUSE of LORDS SPEAKER IS REVOLTING!
Lord Fowler (above, second left) comments following the government’s announcement of 36 new members of the House of Lords on Friday 31 July:
Lord Fowler, the Lord Speaker, said: “This list of new Peers marks a lost opportunity to reduce numbers in the House of Lords. The result will be that the House will soon be nearly 830 strong – almost 200 greater than the House of Commons.
“That is a massive policy u-turn.
It was only two years ago that the then Prime Minister, Mrs May, pledged herself to a policy of “restraint” in the number of new appointments. It was the first time that any Prime Minister had made such a pledge.
“This followed a report by a special Lord Speaker’s committee chaired by Lord (Terry) Burns proposing that numbers should be reduced to 600. This was debated by the Lords itself with over 90 speakers, commanding overwhelming support.
“The big opportunity was for the present Government to take forward this movement for reform. I emphasise that this is not a matter of personalities. It is a question of numbers and the abandonment of an established policy to reduce the size of the House.
“It is also a vast pity that the list has been announced within the first few days of the summer recess when neither House is sitting, and the Government cannot be challenged in Parliament.”
Our noble Lords and Ladies receive ‘allowances’ of £323 PER DAY just for turning up – nice ‘work’ if you can get it!
Even during the pandemic, when the House of Lords isn’t sitting, our hard-working peers are trousering £162 per day when they participate in debates or vote from the comfort of home – no matter how minimal their contribution may be.
By way of comparison, a single person under 25 on Universal Credit will receive a standard payment of £342.72p PER MONTH.
But Which? says the CAA is failing the consumers it is supposed to protect
Review considered actions by airlines during the coronavirus pandemic
Civil Aviation Authority action has led to airlines making commitments to improve performance without requiring formal enforcement action
Quality of service and performance from most airlines has improved in response to bilateral engagement and the review, leading to refunds now being paid out faster
Civil Aviation Authority warns other European and international airlines that the consumers right to a refund must be protected
The UK Civil Aviation Authority has been reviewing the refund policies and performance of UK airlines and three of the largest international operators to the UK. A further five international airlines were included due to the level of consumer feedback and concerns that refunds were not being paid during the coronavirus pandemic.
The Civil Aviation Authority review is based on its own investigations, as well as information provided to us by consumers across email and social media, as well as through consumer bodies including the Competition and Markets Authority, the Northern Ireland Consumer Council and Which?.
At the start of the review, some airlines were not paying refunds, with others facing potential backlogs of numerous months.
We investigated airlines’ policies and practices to establish whether they were placing barriers in the way of consumers requesting refunds, through unclear messaging, difficult to navigate customer services and under-resourced call centres.
While we recognise that the coronavirus pandemic was an unprecedented situation for the aviation industry, our consumer team has worked to protect consumer rights and to influence airlines to change their processes and practices in order to improve performance in providing refunds.
The Civil Aviation Authority now has evidence that shows that since it launched its review, and its wide-ranging engagement programme with airlines, all UK airlines are now paying refunds. Call centre wait times have reduced, in some cases significantly, and customer service messaging has provided greater clarity on consumers’ rights to a refund for cancelled flights.
Our review found that a number of airlines were not performing adequately. We have gained immediate commitments from these airlines to improve their performance and the time taken to provide refunds to consumers, without requiring enforcement action.
This is the most immediate way of providing benefits to consumers as enforcement processes can take a considerable amount of time to complete given the potential for legal proceedings. We have previously called for stronger, more immediate, powers to act to protect consumer rights.
Other European airlines were not initially within the scope of our review due to discussions taking place between National Enforcement Bodies, European governments and the EU Commission. Engaging with these other EU airlines at that point would have potentially cut across these other discussions.
However, we have today written to a further 30 major European and international airlines that operate services to and from the UK to highlight the results of our review, and to warn them not to deny consumers their right to a refund. We will not hesitate to take further action against any airlines where necessary.
Commenting on the review, Richard Moriarty, Chief Executive of the UK Civil Aviation Authority, said: “The airlines we have reviewed have responded by significantly enhancing their performance, reducing their backlogs, and improving their processing speeds in the interests of consumers.
“Although we have taken into account the serious operational challenges many airlines have faced, we have been clear that customers cannot be let down, and that airlines must pay refunds as soon as possible.
“There is still work to do. We have required commitments from airlines as they continue the job of paying customer refunds. Should any airline fall short of the commitments they have made, we will not hesitate to take any further action where required.”
Summary statements for each airline are available on CAA website at the link below:
Rory Boland, Editor of Which? Travel, said:“The regulator is failing the consumers it is supposed to protect. The reality is that people are still owed millions of pounds in refunds, are facing financial and emotional turmoil, and continue to be fobbed off by a number of airlines who have been brazenly breaking the law for months.
“These airlines will now feel they can continue to behave terribly having faced no penalty or sanction.
“It is obvious that the CAA does not have the right tools to take effective action against airlines that show disregard towards passengers and the law, but more worryingly, it’s not clear the regulator has the appetite to use them.
“The government must use this opportunity to bring in much-needed reforms, including giving regulators greater powers to take swift and meaningful action, but consumers need assurances that these will actually be used against lawbreaking companies.”
We are pleased to announce the second half of Edinburgh Culture Conversations, a series of live, online events staged in conjunction with the Edinburgh Futures Institute debating the future role of arts and culture, and examining how the arts and creative sectors can help society recover from the effects of Covid-19.
The events bring together members of the public, artists, academics and cultural leaders to discuss how culture contributes to our lives and what it could do in the future.
Join us at 6pm over the next five Mondays, 03 August to 14 September, for weekly conversations to debate the value of creativity, not only to the arts, but also to society and the wider economy.
Hosted by Janet Archer, the University of Edinburgh’s Director of Festivals, Cultural and City Events, each panel features distinguished guests with a truly diverse range of professional, expert and practitioner experience and knowledge.
They include:
Lesley McAra, Director of the University of Edinburgh’s Futures Institute Dorothy Miell, Vice-Principal and Head of the College of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Edinburgh Simon Brault, Director and CEO Canada Council for the Arts and Chair IFACCA: International Federation of Arts Councils and Culture Agencies Jackie Wylie, Artistic Director and Chief Executive of the National Theatre of Scotland Tamara Rojo, Artistic Director and Lead Principal Dancer of the English National Ballet David Greig, Artistic Director and Joint Chief Executive, Royal Lyceum Theatre Leonie Bell, Strategic Lead for Future Paisley and Director Designate, V&A Dundee Professor Siddharthan Chandran, Macdonald Chair of Neurology, Centre for Brain Sciences, University of Edinburgh Imam Razawi, Director General and Chief Imam, Scottish Ahlul Bayt Society Amanda Parker, Director Inc Arts and Editor Arts Professional.
We are recording and uploading each event to our website so you can watch at any time. Ask us questions at the Live Events, comment on our Facebook page or write to us at festivals@ed.ac.uk with your responses, we’d love to hear from you on any of the topics we’re discussing.
The conversations have been organised by the University of Edinburgh Festivals Office and are being staged in conjunction with the University of Edinburgh’s new centre for interdisciplinary learning and research, the Edinburgh Futures Institute.
Greta Auld (73), from Pencaitland near Edinburgh, was diagnosed with MND in March 2019. Now she’s sharing her experience of MND and life in lockdown to help raise awareness of the terminal illness.
The retired police secretary, and grandmother of five, has always been a constant pillar of the community. A widow with two children at the age of just 29 years-old, Greta was forced to be fiercely independent her whole life.
While wanting to keep her independence for as long as possible, family members and local village friends have stepped up to support her when needed. Since her diagnosis of MND, Greta has kept a positive outlook and cannot wait for ‘shielding’ restrictions to lift so she can get back out in the community and live life to the fullest.
Greta said, “Before lockdown I was going out about four times a week. I have a wee electric scooter, but I haven’t been out on it for months! I was still driving my grandkids to their swimming and doing wheelchair bowling at the local women’s club, where I am also the secretary.
“I helped run the Scouts for over 20 years and was involved in a local lunch club for older people – although now the 85-year-olds help me off the bus,” she joked.
“I’ve always been heavily involved in the community and have loads of friends through this. So not being able to get out of the house these past few months has been hard. It’s difficult not getting to see the grandkids as much but they are getting down to visit me now. I just can’t wait to get around the village again and see what’s been going on the past three months.”
Greta added, “Thank goodness for my wee westie Maisie, she has been such great company during the last few years. As I became more disabled and not able to take her on walks, a really good friend now takes her every morning during the week, and a neighbour’s daughters take her at weekends.
“I am so lucky to live in a village and be well supported by everyone. She is such a friendly wee dog; she loves everyone and all my carers spoil her.”
Greta has also found MND Scotland’s Video Support Group particularly helpful, enabling her to stay connected to others affected by MND during the pandemic.
“When they were running, I went to the MND Scotland Support Group in Edinburgh. I loved it. That’s just the kind of person I am. I want to get involved and meet people – that helps me. I know other people don’t want to go to things like that, but I’ve found it very helpful going to meetings. It affects us all differently and yet the same.
“We’ve moved online to a video call every week. They are so good and very informative. Everyone is really upbeat which makes a difference. We’re a happy crowd – we’re not sitting in doom and gloom. All you can do is keep a good attitude and try to stay as positive as you can.”
Diagnosed with MND in 2019, Greta was initially thought to have had a silent stroke, first realising something was wrong in early 2017.
“I noticed the left-hand side of my body was getting really weak. I remember visiting my friend in Canada and was in her swimming pool, but I ended up just swimming in circles because my left leg wouldn’t work! I looked awful silly, but you have to laugh at these things as well.
“I then had a number of trips and falls so decided to go and get checked out. My family were very shocked when we were told it had been a stroke. However, as time went on, my symptoms were getting worse instead of better, so I went back and was referred to a neurologist.
“I wasn’t all that surprised to be honest. My hands had been shaking for a long time so I thought it might be Parkinson’s or something similar, but my family were absolutely gutted when I told them. They had just gotten their heads around it being a stroke and were now being told it was MND, which was an even bigger shock to them.
“I was quite upbeat when I told my children, George and his wife Susan, and Lynda and her husband Derek. It took a while for it all to sink in. I think my daughter in particular found it really tough. She was just devastated. I think it must be difficult for them to see their parent going through this.
“It’s only now that it’s really sinking in for me, as things start becoming more and more difficult. I’m getting slower and weaker but the way I see it you just have to battle on and keep going. I try to be as positive as I can and see the fun in life wherever I can.”
Since the beginning of lockdown Greta has noticed a change in her symptoms, but is continuing to get the support she needs: “Staying indoors definitely hasn’t helped my mobility. I have noticed my symptoms progressing. I used to get massage therapy and physiotherapy until they stopped because of coronavirus.
“I think that’s slowed me up too. I’m just not getting the same amount of exercise. Even going down the steps at my front door was good movement which I can’t myself anymore, so we are trying to get something sorted to help me get down more easily, like a ramp.
“I currently need help to get out of the house, so it would make a big difference to be able to get down the steps by myself. My world would open up again. I’ve been in this house for 50 years and I don’t want to have to move – this is where my family memories are.
“As I’m on the government’s shielding list I’ve been getting good support and am using the online shopping delivery slots which has been a huge help. I’m very lucky. I’m used to being independent so even though friends and family help a lot I don’t want to bother too many people.
“I now have a cleaner and a gardener, and I have carers coming in in the morning, at teatime and in the evening – I can always have a good laugh with my carers as they are from the local village too. The most important thing for me is trying to keep my independence for as long as possible.”
Craig Stockton, MND Scotland’s Chief Executive, “I’d like to thank Greta for bravely sharing her story, especially during these uncertain times.
“For people living with MND, time with loved ones is precious. Social-isolation measures, while essential, have placed huge restrictions on the care and support many rely on every single day. Even basic companionship, like having a friend or loved one pop round to say hello.
“That’s why we launched our new services hub, to help us stay connected to families in Scotland, so no one has to go through MND alone. ‘MND Scotland Connected’ at its core provides one-to-one phone support, video support groups and emergency financial grants.
A new report has been produced by the Just Transition Commission for the Scottish Government, providing recommendations for Scotland’s green economic recovery.
This report follows the Edinburgh Climate Commission’s inaugural report, Forward Faster Together, which was published and presented to Councillors earlier this month, with the Council agreeing a green recovery is the only way forward for our City.
Adam McVey, City of Edinburgh Council Leader, said: “Having committed to working for a green recovery we very much welcome the report and recommendations from the Just Transition Commission. These are very well aligned to those of the Edinburgh Climate Commission and to Edinburgh’s 2050 City Vision of a thriving and fair city.
“We need to ensure that we build our city and our country back in the right way, focusing on action that contributes to our net zero carbon by 2030 ambition and prioritising initiatives that make a positive impact on climate change.”
Cammy Day, City of Edinburgh Council Depute Leader, said: “With the dual crises of COVID-19 and climate change it’s clear that we must deliver a green recovery that is just, fair and sustainable in the long-term by enhancing job creation, empowering Edinburgh’s residents, improving public health and driving innovation while tackling climate change.
The Just Transition Commission’s report recommends a green recovery that looks out for both people and planet. This will require action at both national and local government levels, and we look forward to working with the Scottish Government to making this central to the economic recovery of Edinburgh.”
Read the Just Transition Commission report at the Scottish Government website and find the Edinburgh Climate Commission report, Forward Faster Together, here.
Two further cases have tested positive for COVID-19 as part of an existing cluster of cases in the Greater Glasgow and Clyde area. Both of these individuals are linked to known contacts of the earlier cases.
This now takes the total to 13 and an Incident Management Team (IMT) are contacting anyone who may be affected.
The cases are linked to the M&D Green pharmacy in John Wood Street, Port Glasgow and Amazon in Gourock. Some of the cases visited the following locations during the period in which they may have been infectious to others: The Botany on Maryhill Road in Glasgow City, and The Queen of the Loch by Marston’s Inn, Lomond Woods Holiday Park and Sweeney’s Cruises in West Dunbartonshire.
We can also confirm that a case has a link to the Sitel call centre in Lanarkshire.
Health and local environmental health staff are working closely with all the businesses to trace any close contacts of the cases, and appropriate advice is being given to these individuals including on self-isolation.
All the businesses continue to operate including the pharmacy where precautions have been taken to keep customers and staff safe.
None of the cases or their contacts who are linked to the pharmacy are currently working there, and infection control measures in the pharmacy have been carefully reviewed. Anyone using the pharmacy or getting their medication from the pharmacy can be reassured that it is safe.
Dr Daniel Carter, Consultant in Public Health Medicine and Chair of the IMT, said: “All those who have tested positive for COVID-19 have been given appropriate advice and are self-isolating.
“We are working with a number of businesses including a local pharmacy to trace any close contacts.”
“We would like to take this opportunity to remind local residents of the importance of continuing with the general measures to minimise the risk of COVID-19 to themselves and to others. These include social distancing, regular handwashing, and being vigilant for symptoms. Anyone with symptoms should immediately self-isolate and seek a test.
“Anyone who needs to do anything over and above these general measures will be contacted by the Test and Protect service and given specific advice.
“We would also ask that anyone who has been in any of these businesses should stay vigilant and alert to any symptoms suggestive of Covid-19. If symptoms arise people should immediately self-isolate and seek a test otherwise they do not need to do anything additional to these general measures unless they are contacted by the Test and Protect service.”
Dr Linda de Caestecker, Director of Public Health, NHSGGC added: “None of the cases are experiencing anything but mild symptoms and to maintain patient confidentiality we are unable to give any further information on the cases.
“Everyone who may have been exposed to these cases is being followed up and given appropriate advice.
“We want to reassure community pharmacies and general practices in the area that no additional precautions are required beyond those already in place to protect patients and staff.
“The pharmacy named continues to provide a valuable service to the community and is following all the correct infection control protocols to ensure customers are safe.”
Think tank Resolution Foundation economist Daniel Tomlinson says the UK Government is NOT paying nine million people’s wages. He says the number of workers currently furloughed is half this amount …
From today, employers will start contributing towards the wage costs of furloughed employees (writes RESULTION FOUNDATION’s DANIEL TOMLINSON).
This significant first step in the phasing-out of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) carries real risks of increased redundancies – particularly for those in the hardest-hit sectors – and so attention should also focus on the important question of just how many people are furloughed today.
Despite significant easing of the lockdown and attention rightly focused on the large number of redundancies announced of late, it’s still common to hear the claim that nine million employees are being paid right now through the scheme. However, this is simply not true. Although it is true to say that in total nine million people have been furloughed for at least one three-week period since March, this cumulative figure does not reflect what’s happening right now. Rather, all the evidence suggests that the number of people furloughed today – as employer contributions towards furlough pay kick in – is likely to be at most half, and maybe even as low as one-third, of this nine million total.
For the millions of workers who have returned to active employment over the past three months, the JRS has served its purpose well. But it may be the case that more than one million employees in the hardest-hit hospitality and leisure industries are still furloughed.
It’s in this context that the impact of the across-the-board increases to employer contributions in August, September and October are a concern. Delaying future increases in JRS contributions for the hardest-hit sectors would help reduce the rise in unemployment forecast in the autumn.
There are not nine million people on the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme today
The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) has been a very successful and well-implemented policy intervention. It has supported household incomes in the face of an unprecedented shock, and maintained the crucial attachment between employees and their employer.
However, for many firms and employees it will have only ever been used on a temporary basis at the height of the economic shutdown. Many furloughed employees have since returned to work (some on ‘flexible furlough’ for part of their working hours), and a smaller group will have been made redundant already, even before today’s introduction of employer contributions.
But you wouldn’t know this from listening to our politicians and broadcasters. The Prime Minister, claimed on 24 July 2020 that his Government was “supporting the livelihoods of 9 million people now through furlough”. Similarly, the BBC reported on 28 July 2020 that “9.5 million people are using the scheme, the same as a week ago”.
This is wrong. Although the cumulative take-up of the scheme since its launch is in excess of nine million, the actual number of people using the scheme right now – on the day that employers are now required to start contributing to the payroll costs of furloughed employees – is undoubtedly much lower.
Figure 1 shows the increase in cumulative JRS take-up over time, as published by HM Revenue and Customs. These cumulative figures are now entirely meaningless when it comes to understanding the path of the economic recovery or the numbers of people who have been furloughed for a prolonged period of time.
Figure 1: Nine million people have been on the JRS at some point since its launch
All the evidence suggests that the number of people currently furloughed is at most half the nine million total, and could even be one-third of this level
In the absence of official statistics on furlough numbers over time, we can turn to other estimates of furloughing and coronavirus labour market effects from various Office for National Statistics (ONS) surveys, in order to get a sense of when take-up peaked and just how fast it has fallen.
Across the three available data sets stretching back to the announcement of lockdown on 23 March 2020, the consistent finding is that the number of people furloughed or away from work is likely to have peaked in late April at somewhere between seven and eight million employees (Figure 2). The upper end of this range is based on the ONS’s Business Impacts of Coronavirus Survey (BICS), which reported that 31 per cent of the private-sector workforce was furloughed in late April.
Figure 2: The number of people now furloughed is much lower than in late April
Since late April, the number of people furloughed or away from work looks to have fallen considerably. This is unsurprising given restrictions on non-essential retail were lifted on 15 June, and on many parts of hospitality and leisure on 4 July (in England).
The opening up of these parts of the economy, and the general increase in economic activity since the depths of lockdown, will have led to millions of employees returning to work.
For example, the number of people temporarily away from work above and beyond the usual level of temporary work absences (the red line in Figure 2) fell by 40 per cent between late April and late May. This will have been driven primarily by people coming off furlough, but also by reductions in the number of people away from work for other reasons such as shielding, self-isolating or for childcare.
Some of this decline will also be driven by moves off the JRS and into unemployment, although this is likely to be a relatively small part of the story to date as in May, June and July employers had not yet been asked to contribute anything towards the costs of furloughing their employees.
More up-to-date estimates come from the BICS for early July, which suggests that 16 per cent of the private-sector workforce was furloughed at this time. We estimate this equates to around five million people still on furlough at the start of the month.
At the other end of the range, the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OLS) shows that the proportion of those who report that they are employed but furloughed fell from 13 per cent of all workers in the period 18-21 June, to 8 per cent of all workers in the period 8-12 July.
This figure, which equates to three million employees, is at the lower end of the range we’d expect, and will have been affected by the introduction of flexible furloughing from 1 July. Many employees who returned to work part-time in July will not have been counted as furloughed in these OLS estimates, but may well have still have the majority of their pay provided through the JRS (and will appear in some of the other series shown in Figure 2).
It would be unwise to lean too heavily on this or any other estimate from one particular survey in drawing conclusions as to the number of people furloughed today. The use of flexible furlough in July could mean that the pace of decline in take-up slowed last month as employees moved from full to flexible furlough, rather than off the scheme altogether. To date there is little evidence on the impact of flexible furlough on business behaviour, but it’s likely that usage of this component of the scheme will be high.
Overall, it is reasonable to draw the conclusion that the number of people furloughed right now, as employers begin making contributions to furloughed employees’ wage costs, is certainly below 4.5 million (half of the commonly cited nine million total) – and may be as low as one-third of this level.
Employer contributions will disproportionately affect workers in hospitality and leisure, so a sectorally differentiated wind-down of the scheme is desirable
Although the number of people furloughed right now is lower than many claim, it is still a large proportion of the workforce – particularly in some sectors. For this reason, the impact of the introduction of employer contributions towards furloughed employees’ wage costs from 1 August should not be taken lightly.
This big change to the scheme will mean that employers will now start paying employer National Insurance contributions and minimum auto-enrolment pension costs for furloughed employees, at an average of £70 a month (equivalent to 5 per cent of the average employee’s wages pre-coronavirus).
This shift will be followed by increases in contributions in September and October and then the ending of the scheme in November, changes which will have large effects on employer costs in sectors where furloughing rates are higher, such as hospitality and retail. We estimate that in these two sectors as many as one million employees (38 per cent) may still have been furloughed in late July (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Four-in-ten hospitality and leisure workers could still be furloughed
The fact that furloughing rates, and therefore the cost of employer contributions, are concentrated in particularly hard-hit sectors strengthens the case for treating these parts of the economy differently from the rest in the months ahead. Employees in these sectors are now at heightened risk of entering unemployment this autumn as employer contributions are introduced today and then increased throughout September and October.
We have previously called for the phasing in of employer contributions to take place on a slower timetable in the hardest-hit sectors for just this reason. The Government could still take this approach with the planned September and October employer contribution increases (to an estimated 15 and 25 per cent of pre-coronavirus wage costs), in order to limit redundancies in sectors like hospitality and leisure.
Further, the imposition of local lockdowns and the very real risk of a broader second wave means that Government must also be clear about what policy will do in these circumstances. In time, flipping the JRS so it subsidises work being done in these hardest-hit sectors, rather than provides payments when work isn’t done, would be more effective way of maximising the amount of work carried out and would be a more sustainable way of providing support to parts of the economy heavily affected by ongoing social distancing.
To date, the JRS has been a clear policy success. However, the challenges of phasing it out, calibrating it to the path of the virus and the return of economic activity mean that the hard work of designing and implementing policy that protects jobs and incomes in this crisis is far from over.
