Voters in Ochil & South Perthshire are 33 TIMES MORE POWERFUL than the rest of the UK

People living in Ochil & South Perthshire will wield 33 times more power in this General Election than those in the rest of the country, according to new analysis published this week.

The findings will focus efforts to mobilise high turnouts and increase the role of smart tactical voting by campaigners fighting to stop Boris Johnson winning a landslide victory for his destructive Brexit.

The “Voter Power Index,” based on crunching figures from vast nationwide polling exercises, shows that people in constituencies like Ochil & South Perthshire – where the margin of victory might be little more than 340 votes  – have significantly more influence than the rest of the country.

The analysis combines data from three MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) models, including those published last week by YouGov and Best for Britain, as well as work done by strategists preparing for a new referendum campaign.

Ochil & South Perthshire is the only Scottish seat chosen as one of 25 knife-edge constituencies being targeted by the Vote for a Final Say campaign, which was formed with the soul aim of targeting seats where tactical voting can prevent a Boris Johnson landslide.

The campaign will pump thousands of pounds into each seat to fund social media adverts and other campaigning to help Labour, Liberal Democrat and SNP candidates defeat their Tory rivals.

In Ochil & South Perthshire, the data shows that a vote for SNP candidate John Nicolson could have huge influence on the final election outcome, stopping a Tory hard Brexit in its tracks.

The analysis reveals large numbers of Remain supporters are at risk of wasting their vote on third-placed candidates, ensuring that a hard-Brexit Conservative is elected.

The newly established organisation, Vote for a Final Say, is working with young activists from For our Future’s Sake to support Labour, Liberal Democrat and SNP candidates in the 25 constituencies that look set to determine the General Election across the country.

John Nicolson, SNP candidate in Ochil and South Perthshire said: “It’s clear that only the SNP can beat the Conservatives in Ochil & South Perthshire. The election is very close and the outcome could determine the future of the country for a generation.

“Every vote in every seat matters, but this analysis shows that some votes will be crucial in determining the outcome. Those are in seats across the UK where the result is hanging in the balance and could determine the result. I would ask people, including those who do not normally vote SNP to think very carefully before they vote as every single vote will count.”

VOTER POWER INDEX FOR THE CRUNCH 25 CONSTITUENCIES

Seat

Winner

2nd

Margin (Votes)

Voter Power Index

Cheadle

LD

CON

116

96.13

Winchester

LD

CON

273

40.99

Bristol North West

LAB

CON

292

38.22

Ochil and South Perthshire

CON

SNP

336

33.32

Weaver Vale

LAB

CON

363

30.81

Canterbury

LAB

CON

415

26.92

Wirral West

LAB

CON

497

22.49

Bury North

LAB

CON

759

14.74

Gower

CON

LAB

968

11.55

Enfield Southgate

LAB

CON

973

11.49

Cheltenham

LD

CON

1,311

8.53

Sedgefield

CON

LAB

1,365

8.19

Birmingham Northfield

LAB

CON

1,441

7.76

Wimbledon

CON

LD

1,489

7.51

Warrington South

CON

LAB

1,510

7.4

Cardiff North

LAB

CON

1,912

5.85

Wakefield

CON

LAB

2,116

5.28

Portsmouth South

LAB

CON

2,349

4.76

Croydon Central

LAB

CON

2,435

4.59

Eltham

LAB

CON

2,442

4.58

Reading East

LAB

CON

2,452

4.56

St Albans

LD

CON

3,033

3.69

Warwick and Leamington

CON

LAB

3,531

3.17

Cambridgeshire South

CON

LD

4,100

2.73

Finchley & Golders Green

CON

LAB

7,331

1.52

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Published by

davepickering

Edinburgh reporter and photographer