Political engagement is highest in Scotland – but few people believe they can make a difference
Most people in the UK now believe Scotland will become an independent country and eventually leave the UK, according to new research from the University of Edinburgh.
The findings are taken from a survey of more than 7000 voters across Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland which asked people about a range of constitutional issues.
The majority of people surveyed across the four nations believe that Scotland will eventually leave the UK – 69 per cent in Scotland; 59 per cent in England; 54 per cent in Wales; and 59 per cent in Northern Ireland.
The survey found that 15 per cent of Scots think the country will become independent within five years and 32 per cent believe it will happen within ten. Overall, more than two-thirds of Scots believe the country will eventually vote for independence.
Deputy First Minister John Swinney said: “The Scottish Government continues to believe independence is the best option for Scotland, and the survey finds most Scots think this is where the constitutional journey will take us.
“We also believe strongly that Scotland being taken out of the EU in a referendum in circumstances, where a majority of Scots had voted to stay in, would be massively damaging economically and have major constitutional implications.
“The referendum on independence was a wonderful experience of democratic engagement, bringing people into politics who in some cases had not been involved in decades, if at all.
“I therefore welcome the findings that political engagement in Scotland is higher than in the rest of the UK, particularly among young people and that there remains a strong appetite for debate over the constitution. Scots are significantly more likely to say that they will vote in the 2015 Westminster election.”
Despite the views on constitutional issues, those surveyed do not believe ‘ordinary people’ have a big influence on how the UK is run – politicians, political parties, businesses, trade unions and local councils are seen to hold greater influence on the running of the country.
Dr Jan Eichhorn, of the University of Edinburgh’s School of Social and Political Science, said: “People across the UK show an appetite for discussions about how the country should be governed. However, it is worrying to see how little people think they can actually make a difference.”
Dr Daniel Kenealy said: “Despite Nicola Sturgeon’s call for an EU referendum veto by the four nations of the UK, and First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones’s support for the idea, it remains unpopular with people across the UK.”
A Labour spokesman said: “This poll shows that people are frustrated with the way that politics works, and they want to have a bigger say in how our country is run. Making our country work for working people is the best way to bring all parts of it together again.
“That is why Labour has committed to a constitutional convention, made up of people from all parts of the country and all walks of life, to change the way our country works.”
A spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives said fears about the end of the Union were being heightened by the prospect of a pact at Westminster between Labour and the SNP in the event of a hung parliament.
The spokesman said: “With Labour flirting with the SNP in the hope it gets them into government, and the Lib Dems dead in the water it’s no surprise people fear the constitutional question isn’t yet over.”
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If that is what is going to happen would it perhaps be best to get on with it rather than waiting until Scotland’s natural resources have been exhausted?