
The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) are warning that despite rain in most of the country, current river flow monitoring shows sustained local pressure in northern catchments – with one area now at Significant Water Scarcity.
SEPA’s Drought Risk Assessment Tool (DRAT) uses current river flow data from hundreds of sites across Scotland. This science-led approach is used to track environmental conditions and help prevent lasting harm to rivers, lochs and the ecosystems that depend on them.
The latest data, as advised in this week’s Water Scarcity Report, shows that the River Helmsdale in Sutherland has now reached Significant Water Scarcity, meaning river flows have stayed below the Q95 threshold for 30 consecutive days.
Q95 is a recognised benchmark in hydrology, which is used as a low flow threshold. It’s calculated by looking at a catchment’s 30-year dataset from 1991 to 2020 and looking at the lowest 5% of flows in that time frame.
No regulatory action is required by SEPA in Helmsdale, as all licensed abstractions in the catchment already return water to the river.
The River Wick catchment in Caithness is expected to reach significant scarcity early next week, and SEPA are contacting any abstractors who may be affected by regulatory action to restrict their water use.

Eilidh Johnston, SEPA’s Senior Manager in Water Industry and Rural Economy, said: “This is why our science matters. Even with the rain we’ve had over the last few weeks, the science shows real pressure on some rivers.
“SEPA gather current flow data from across Scotland and compares it against a 30-year baseline, that helps us assess risk, guide action, and work with others before serious harm happens.
“When a river stays below that low-flow threshold of Q95 for 30 days, the risk to aquatic life and the surrounding ecosystem becomes significant. Beyond this point any further reduction in flow is likely to increase the risk of harm.
“We’ll act as necessary if this threshold is passed, but we’ve also been engaging with water users for months.
“From farmers and distilleries to golf courses and fisheries, we’ve spoken to individuals, companies and representative bodies including the Scotch Whisky Association, Scottish Golf, NFUS, and Fisheries Management Scotland. And we’ve seen and heard first-hand how seriously abstractors are taking their responsibilities, and the practices they’re putting in place to protect our environment.”
This week’s update
Recent heavy rain has improved conditions in some areas:
- Firth of Forth and Tweed have recovered from Moderate Scarcity to Alert
- Earn and Esk (Dumfriesshire) have recovered from Alert to Early Warning.
- Beauly, Forth, Annan, Firth of Clyde and Loch Maree catchments have all recovered from Early Warning to Normal conditions.
The longer-term picture remains uncertain. The east of Scotland has just experienced its second driest spring in 100 years, with some parts seeing below-average rainfall for the past 12 months. Above-average rainfall will be needed in many catchments to support a full recovery.
SEPA continue to work closely with abstraction licence holders in areas nearing the Q95 threshold, and with representatives from trade and membership organisations to support early action and resilience planning.
Weekly water scarcity reports are published every Thursday at water scarcity situation report.