Headlines:
- Average house price in Scotland up by 11.4% over last 12 months
- Monthly growth rates starting to soften
- 31 of 32 Local Authorities have rising average prices over year to end October
- Scotland again outperforming England, Wales & NI
- £750k+ house sales double that of Jan – Oct 2020
Alan Penman, Business Development Manager at Walker Fraser Steele, comments: “The continued story of Scotland’s successful year for higher priced properties continues.
“The average house price in Scotland has increased by some £21,800 over the last 12 months but our data shows there have been 872 sales over £750k (the point at which the highest rate of Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) is applied) during the first ten months of 2021.
“We expect up to 30 additional sales in October 2021, not yet recorded by the Registers of Scotland and so not included in the above total. This would mean sales of these higher-value properties to the end of October 2021 would likely be double in number to those of the first ten months of 2020.
“What we are seeing is the impact of the cut in LBTT earlier in the year, the continuation of low interest rates and cheaper mortgage finance, and the desire of many purchasers during the pandemic to buy bigger properties in the race for space. These factors have meant higher-end properties have played a significant part in the overall growth figure.
“Sales volumes from May to October 2021 are only slightly ahead of previous years, and suggest that the market has now returned to pre-pandemic transaction levels. Nevertheless, the continuing strong performance in October means Scotland had the highest annual rate of house price growth of the four home nations with annual growth at 11.4%, followed by Northern Ireland at 10% (Ulster University Index), Wales at 9.6% and England, without Wales, at 3.9%.”
Commentary: John Tindale, Acadata Senior Housing Analyst
The October housing market:
Scotland’s October housing market is starting to show some signs of slowing in terms of price growth, but it’s necessary to look quite hard for the evidence. We provide four possible indicators:-
Firstly, we can point to an actual reduction in the average house price in October, with the value now standing at £212,551 – but this is only £70 lower than the previous month. However, it does bring to an end a three-month run from July to September 2021, in which average prices rose by an overall £11,000.
Secondly, we can show that in October only some 90 homes in Scotland were sold at a price in excess of £750k, compared to 120 in September. Nevertheless, we could point out that – if we looked at the monthly totals prior to October 2020, ie one year earlier – then 90 sales in a single month having a value over £750k would have set a new record at that time.
Thirdly, the average house price in both Edinburgh and Glasgow fell in October, with the two cities collectively accounting for approximately 25% of all property sales in Scotland. But we could also point out that the same happened in both October 2017 and October 2019, with Scotland’s average house price for those two years showing continued positive growth.
Lastly, and perhaps the most compelling argument is that England and Wales have seen their house price growth start to fall. Figure 1 below compares Scotland’s annual rate of growth, which was at 11.4% in October, with that of England and Wales combined, where rates have fallen to 4.1%. In fact, eight of the nine regions in England saw their annual rates of growth fall in October. (For a comparative Table go to Figure 4 and follow the link.)
In October, Scotland had the highest annual rate of house price growth of the four United Kingdom countries, at 11.4%, with Northern Ireland in second place at 10% (Ulster University Index), followed by Wales at 9.6% and England, without Wales, at 3.9%. England has started to see a reduction in the number of high-value detached properties being sold – perhaps due to a shortage in the level of available stock – resulting in average prices beginning to fall.