The Chancellor will make a statement at 11am, bringing forward measures from the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan that will support fiscal sustainability.
He will also make a statement in the House of Commons this afternoon.
This follows the Prime Minister’s statement on Friday, and further conversations between the Prime Minister and the Chancellor over the weekend, to ensure sustainable public finances underpin economic growth.
The Chancellor will then deliver the full Medium-Term Fiscal Plan to be published alongside a forecast from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility on 31 October.
The Chancellor met with the Governor of the Bank of England and the Head of the Debt Management Office last night to brief them on these plans.
That racket you hear is those infamous Mini-Budget economic plans being put through the shredder – Ed. …
UPDATE: The Chancellor of The Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has today, Monday 17 October, brought forward a number of measures from 31 October’s Medium-Term Fiscal Plan:
Changes designed to ensure the UK’s economic stability and provide confidence in the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline
Basic rate of income tax to remain at 20% until economic conditions allow for it to be cut, IR35 and dividend tax rate reforms no longer going ahead
Treasury-led review of energy support after April 2023 launched
Following conversations with the Prime Minister, the Chancellor has taken these decisions to ensure the UK’s economic stability and to provide confidence in the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline.
The Chancellor made clear in his statement that the UK’s public finances must be on a sustainable path into the medium term.
Today’s announcement represents another down payment following the reversal of the corporation tax cut announced on Friday 14 October by the Prime Minister. The Chancellor will publish the government’s fiscal rules alongside an OBR forecast, and further measures, on 31 October.
In his statement the Chancellor announced a reversal of almost all of the tax measures set out in the Growth Plan that have not been legislated for in parliament.
The following tax policies will no longer be taken forward:
Cutting the basic rate of income tax to 19% from April 2023. While the government aims to proceed with the cut in due course, this will only take place when economic conditions allow for it and a change is affordable. The basic rate of income tax will therefore remain at 20% indefinitely. This is worth around £6 billion a year.
Cutting dividends tax by 1.25 percentage points from April 2023. The 1.25 percentage points increase, which took effect in April 2022, will now remain in place. This is valued at around £1 billion a year.
Repealing the 2017 and 2021 reforms to the off-payroll working rules (also known as IR35) from April 2023. The reforms will now remain in place. This will cut the cost of the government’s Growth Plan by around £2 billion a year.
Introducing a new VAT-free shopping scheme for non-UK visitors to Great Britain. Not proceeding with this scheme is worth around £2 billion a year.
Freezing alcohol duty rates from 1 February 2023 for a year. Not proceeding with the freeze is worth approximately £600 million a year. The next steps of the Alcohol Duty Review announced in Growth Plan 2022 will continue as planned. The alcohol duty uprating decision and interactions with the wider reforms to alcohol duties under the Alcohol Duty Review will be considered in due course.
This follows on from the previously announced decisions not to proceed with the Growth Plan proposals to remove the additional rate of income tax and to cancel the planned increase in the corporation tax rate.
Taken together, these changes are estimated to be worth around £32 billion a year.
The government’s reversal of the National Insurance increase and the Health and Social Care Levy, and the cuts to Stamp Duty Land Tax, will remain benefitting millions of people and businesses. The £1 million Annual Investment Allowance, the Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme and the Company Share Options Plan will also continue to further support business investment.
Energy bills support review
The government has announced unprecedented support within its Growth Plan to protect households and businesses from high energy prices. The Energy Price Guarantee and the Energy Bill Relief Scheme are supporting millions of households and businesses with rising energy costs, and the Chancellor made clear they will continue to do so from now until April next year.
However, looking beyond April, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor have agreed that it would be irresponsible for the government to continue exposing the public finances to unlimited volatility in international gas prices.
A Treasury-led review will therefore be launched to consider how to support households and businesses with energy bills after April 2023. The objective of the review is to design a new approach that will cost the taxpayer significantly less than planned whilst ensuring enough support for those in need. The Chancellor also said in his statement that any support for businesses will be targeted to those most affected, and that the new approach will better incentivise energy efficiency.
The government is prepared to act decisively and at scale to regain the country’s confidence and trust. The Chancellor stated in his speech that there will be more difficult decisions to take on both tax and spending. This means doing what is needed to lower debt in the medium term and to ensure that taxpayers’ money is well spent, putting public finances on a sustainable footing.
In light of this, government departments will be asked to find efficiencies within their budgets. The Chancellor is expected to announce further changes to fiscal policy on 31 October to put the public finances on a sustainable footing.
Further information
Table of total benefit of tax policy reversals:
Policy (£bn)
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
Re-instate plans to raise Corporation Tax to 25% from April 2023
+2.3
+12.4
+16.6
+17.6
+18.7
Suspend 1p reduction in the basic rate of income tax
0
+5.3
+5.9
+5.8
+5.9
Maintain additional rate of income tax
+2.4
-0.6
+0.8
+2.2
+2.1
Maintain 1.25 percentage point increase in dividends tax rates
0
+1.4
-1.0
+1.1
+0.9
Maintain 2017 and 2021 reforms to off-payroll working rules (also known as IR35)
0
+1.1
+1.4
+1.7
+2.0
Cancel VAT-free shopping scheme for non-UK visitors to Great Britain
0
0
+1.3
+2.0
+2.1
Cancel one year freeze to alcohol duty rates
+0.1
+0.5
+0.6
+0.6
+0.6
Total
+4.7
+20.1
+25.4
+30.9
+32.3
Costings in the table are as set out in the Growth Plan 2022 – except for the 1p reduction in the basic rate of income tax, which is the costing from Spring Statement 2022 as adjusted in the Growth Plan 2022. Final costings will be set out as part of the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on 31 October. Totals may not sum due to rounding.
THE CHANCELLOR’s STATEMENT:
A central responsibility for any Government is to do what is necessary for economic stability.
This is vital for businesses making long-term investment decisions and for families concerned about their jobs, their mortgages, and the cost of living.
No government can control markets, but every government can give certainty about the sustainability of public finances and that is one of the many factors influencing how markets behave.
And for that reason, although the Prime Minister and I are both committed to cutting corporation tax on Friday she listened to concerns about the mini budget and confirmed we will not proceed with the cut to Corporation Tax announced.
The government has today decided to make further changes to the mini budget.
And to reduce unhelpful speculation about what they are, we have decided to announce these ahead of the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan, which happens in two weeks.
I will give a detailed statement to Parliament and answer questions from Members of Parliament.
But because these decisions are market sensitive, I have agreed with the Speaker the need to give an early, brief summary of the changes which are all designed to provide confidence and stability.
Firstly, we will reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the Growth Plan three weeks ago that have not started Parliamentary legislation.
So whilst we will continue with the abolition of the Health and Social Care Levy and Stamp Duty changes we will no longer be proceeding with:
The cut to dividend tax rates.
The reversal of off-payroll working reforms introduced in 2017 and 2021.
The new VAT-free shopping scheme for non-UK visitors.
Or the freeze on alcohol duty rates.
Secondly, the government’s current plan is to cut the basic rate of income tax to 19% from April 2023.
But at a time when markets are rightly demanding commitment to sustainable public finances, it is not right to borrow to fund this tax cut.So I have decided that the basic rate of income tax will remain at 20% and it will do so indefinitely, until economic circumstances allow for it to be cut.
Taken together with the decision not to cut Corporation Tax, and restoring the top rate of income tax the measures I’ve announced today will raise, every year, around £32bn.
Finally, the biggest single expense in the Growth Plan was the Energy Price Guarantee.
This is a landmark policy supporting millions of people through a difficult winter and today I want to confirm that the support we are providing between now and April next year will not change.
But beyond that, the Prime Minister and I have agreed it would not be responsible to continue exposing public finances to unlimited volatility in international gas prices.So I am announcing today a Treasury-led review into how we support energy bills beyond April next year.
The objective is to design a new approach that will cost the taxpayer significantly less than planned whilst ensuring enough support for those in need.
Any support for businesses will be targeted to those most affected.
And the new approach will better incentivise energy efficiency.
The most important objective for our country right now is stability.
Governments cannot eliminate volatility in markets, but they can play their part, and we will do so because instability affects the prices of things in shops, the cost of mortgages, and the value of pensions.
There will be more difficult decisions to take on both tax and spending as we deliver our commitment to get debt falling as a share of the economy over the medium term.
All departments will need to redouble their efforts to find savings, and some areas of spending will need to be cut.
But, as I promised at the weekend our priority in making the difficult decisions that lie ahead will always be the most vulnerable.
And I remain extremely confident about the UK’s long term economic prospects as we deliver our mission to go for growth.
But growth requires confidence and stability, and the United Kingdom will always pay its way.
This Government will therefore make whatever tough decisions are necessary to do so.
REACTION:
Commenting on the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s fiscal statement today (Monday), TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “The Conservatives drove the UK economy over a cliff. Hunt slamming the gears into reverse now won’t help families and businesses already hit by soaring borrowing costs.
“People needed reassurances today. Instead, they got more uncertainty – about energy bills, about our public services, and about whether universal credit and benefits will rise with inflation.
“We are now on the brink of a deep and damaging recession that threatens millions of jobs. But the latest Conservative Chancellor still has the same basic approach that got us into this mess.
“The Chancellor should have announced a boost to universal credit and pensions, and a comprehensive plan to get wages rising faster for everyone. And he should have announced a much higher windfall tax on oil and gas giants.”
On the announcement of a review of support for families and businesses with energy costs beyond April 2023, she added: “Families and businesses now face months of worry. There is going to be less help with bills – but no-one knows who will lose out, by how much, or whether there will finally be a programme to fix Britain’s cold and draughty homes. This is not the reassurance working families need.”
Director of Policy & Communications at Independent Age, John Palmer, said: “Older people living on low and modest incomes were hoping to be reassured today, but frustratingly the Chancellor’s statement posed more questions than answers.
“Instead of ensuring stability, today only provided uncertainty. The review of the Energy Price Guarantee is extremely concerning. It’s no longer clear who will receive support beyond April 2023. Now millions of older people are wondering if they will be abandoned by the government and left with unaffordable energy bills and freezing homes next year.
“We know that many people in later life are already making dangerous cutbacks on heating and food. Our own polling revealed that 65% of older people plan to use less heating this winter.
“The government must ensure that its new targeted approach from next year helps older people in financial hardship, including the 850,000 older people who are currently entitled to Pension Credit but do not receive it.
“A fundamental, non-negotiable way to help older people’s incomes keep up with the price of essentials is for the government to uprate benefits and the State Pension with inflation. Today was another missed opportunity to offer this reassurance. Instead, millions of people over 65 will continue to live in fear that they will be made even poorer, when their budgets have been broken by the cost-of-living crisis.”
Will Hodson, consumer champion and founder of How To Save It commented:‘The Chancellor’s announcement that the Government will review the energy price cap in April is welcome. Supporting millionaires in paying their energy bills for two years was both morally and economically wrong.
“However, many households will be concerned about what this change means for them. The Government needs to make sure that their support is both good value to the taxpayer and provides sufficient, targeted support to those who really need it.’
Deputy First Minister John Swinney and his counterparts from other devolved governments are seeking an urgent meeting with Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng to discuss immediate actions needed to reverse the damaging effects of the UK Government’s tax proposals.
Mr Swinney and the Finance Ministers from Wales and Northern Ireland are highlighting the profound impact of “the largest set of unfunded tax cuts for the rich in over 50 years” warning that it is “a huge gamble on public finances and the health of our economy”.
In a joint letter to Mr Kwarteng, they warn against being condemned to another decade of austerity and express deep concern over reports that UK Government departments will be asked to make spending cuts to balance the budget, which may have profound consequences for devolved budget settlements already eroded by inflation.
The Ministers also renew calls for the UK Government to provide targeted support for households and businesses, funded through a windfall tax on the energy sector. In addition, they call for Social Security benefits to be increased, and request additional resources for the devolved governments to protect public services and to fund public sector pay settlements.
Scotland’s Environment Minister Mairi McAllan and Biodiversity Minister Lorna Slater have written to the UK Government urging them to drop the proposals announced in its mini-budget, which they call “an attack on nature…and on the devolution settlement.”
The letter states that these proposals “demonstrate a reckless attitude to legislation that has been developed over many decades and that enshrines vital protections for both nature and people.”
The letter reads:
To:
Ranil Jayawardena MP, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Rt Hon Mark Spencer MP, Minister of State in the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
From:
Minister for Environment and Land Reform Màiri McAllan MSP
Minister for Green Skills, Circular Economy and Biodiversity Lorna Slater MSP
We write with urgency regarding proposals announced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer on Friday, about which the Scottish Government had very little prior notification.
These measures, alongside the Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill, represent an attack on nature (when we should be demonstrating global leadership in the lead up to the important CoP15 global summit), and on the devolved settlement itself.
We therefore ask that you and your Government drop these damaging proposals, and instead work with us and the other devolved governments, to deliver high environmental standards that rise to the nature emergency and respect devolution.
Your government has given little clarity over how the measures included in the mini-budget will be taken forward, and what the implications of them will be for Scotland. Nor have you engaged with us in advance on these issues.
However, from the information that has been made available, we share the strong concerns highlighted by nature groups such as the RSPB and the Woodland Trust. The proposals demonstrate a reckless attitude to legislation that has been developed over many decades and that enshrines vital protections for both nature and people.
Your proposed measures also threaten to undermine our programme of planning reform that is underway in Scotland. National Planning Framework 4 will signal a turning point for planning in Scotland, and we have been clear that responding to both the global climate emergency and the nature crisis will be central to that.
In addition to the measures set out in the mini-budget, the Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill threatens to further undermine standards, as well as the Scottish Government’s powers to protect Scotland’s environment.
As set out in the Cabinet Secretary for Constitution, External Affairs and Culture’s recent letter to the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, the Bill puts at risk the high standards people in Scotland have rightly come to expect from EU membership.
Your government appears to want to row back more than 40 years of protections in a rush to impose a deregulated, race to the bottom on our society and economy. It is particularly alarming that our environmentally-principled approach of controls on polluting substances, ensuring standards for water and air quality, and providing protection for our natural habitats and wildlife are at risk from this deregulatory programme.
Retained EU Law provides Scotland with a high standard of regulation. As we have repeatedly said, Scottish Ministers will continue to seek alignment with EU standards where possible and in a manner that contributes to maintaining and improving environmental protections.
As part of this effort, we remain committed to an ambitious programme of enhancing nature protections and delivering nature restoration. This includes delivering on the vision set out in the recent consultation on our new biodiversity strategy, setting ambitious statutory nature recovery targets, delivering on our vision to be a global leader in sustainable and regenerative agriculture, investing in our natural capital such as through our Nature Restoration Fund, and expanding and improving our national park network.
Finally, as mentioned above, we are particularly concerned that this attack on nature has come at a critical moment as we approach the UN CoP15 biodiversity summit at the end of this year. The Scottish Government is committed to supporting an ambitious global framework to halt and reverse biodiversity decline, but this sudden and fundamental change in position means our views are no longer represented, and has undermined the UK’s ability to have a positive influence on the outcome of the talks.
We strongly urge you to reconsider both the anti-nature measures set out in the mini-budget and the proposed Retained EU Law Bill. Should you proceed regardless of our concerns and those of the public and civil society across the UK, then as a minimum we seek a guarantee that none of these measures will apply in Scotland without specific consent from the Scottish Government. We expect this matter to be considered at the next IMG-EFRA on 24 October.
What are the chances of Truss and Kwarteng thinking again? Absolutely NONE …
Meanwhile, the Scottish Government has recruited three eminent economists …
Emergency Budget Review
Leading economists to give expert advice
Members of an expert panel providing advice to the Scottish Government as part of its Emergency Budget Review (EBR) have been confirmed.
Sir Anton Muscatelli, Professor Frances Ruane and Professor Mike Brewer will assess the impact on Scotland of the UK Chancellor’s fiscal approach and held their first meeting with Deputy First Minister John Swinney today.
Their advice will enable timely consideration of the implications of the UK Government’s fiscal event as work continues to prioritise the Scottish Government’s budget towards tackling the cost of living crisis. The Deputy First Minister has announced he will report the results of the EBR in the week beginning 24 October.
Mr Swinney said: “The Scottish Government wants to make sure it gets the very best advice and fresh perspectives as Ministers consider the complex and difficult decisions we face while tackling the challenges ahead.
“The radical shift in UK economic policy announced by the Chancellor has already caused significant economic shock.
“For the benefit of the people and businesses of Scotland, many of whom will find themselves paying higher prices as a result, it is vital that we consider the current situation and potential solutions with care.
“The members of the panel all bring robust economic insight and I am grateful to them for giving their time and expertise as we navigate these uncharted economic waters.”
The expert panel members, whose positions are non-remunerated, are:
Sir Anton Muscatelli
Principal of the University of Glasgow. He was knighted in June 2017 for services to higher education.
Formerly principal of Heriot-Watt University, he has been an adviser to the House of Commons Treasury Select Committee on monetary policy since 2007.
He chairs the Scottish Government’s Standing Council on Europe, a non-political group which provides expert advice to Scottish Ministers on protecting Scotland’s relationship with the EU, and he was a member of the Scottish Government’s Council of Economic Advisers between 2015 and 2021 and a member of the Advisory Council for Economic Transformation.
In addition, she previously served three terms on the Council of Economic Advisers in Scotland. She will provide an external perspective to the panel on issues such as the competitiveness of Scotland’s tax regime.
Professor Mike Brewer –
Chief Economist and the Deputy Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, where he oversees all aspects of the Foundation’s research agenda.
He is a visiting Professor at the Department of Social Policy at the London School of Economics and between 2011 and 2020 was a Professor of Economics at the University of Essex.
He has also worked at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and HM Treasury.
FRIDAY’S ‘fiscal event’ contained some of the most substantial tax policy changes seen in recent decades (writes Fraser of Allander’s DAVID EISER). Combined with last week’s announcements on the Energy Price Guarantee and Energy Bill Relief Scheme, this constitutes a huge change in the fiscal outlook.
In this context, the decision not to involve the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is irresponsible. It might be billed as a ‘Growth Plan’, but today’s announcements are a budget in all but name. The OBR plays an essential role in scrutinising tax and spend forecasts, assessing the likely impact of policy announcements on growth, the deficit and debt. Its exclusion from the process weakens transparency around the impacts of the proposals.
The new Chancellor (above) used the first part of his speech to reiterate the government’s unavoidably large interventions in the energy market to protect households and businesses from energy price rises. In the remainder of the speech he announced a host of measures designed to stimulate economic growth through a combination of tax cuts and regulatory changes.
Tax changes – implications in Scotland
There were two ‘tax cuts’ that are more accurately described as reversals in recent or planned increases.
A planned increase in the Corporation Tax rate from 19% to 25% will now not go ahead. The Treasury estimates this will cost £12bn in reduced revenue compared to its previous plans in 2023/24, and more in subsequent years.
The Health and Social Care Levy has also been scrapped, together with the 1.25% increase in dividend tax rates. These changes will cost almost £18bn in reduced revenues in 2023/24 compared to previous plans.
Both of these changes had been pre-announced and apply UK-wide.
The big surprises came on income tax. Here the government announced the biggest reforms (at UK level) since 2009.
The basic rate will be reduced from 20p to 19p one year earlier than expected, applying from April 2023 rather than April 2024.
The 45p additional rate will be abolished in April 2023.
Income tax changes and implications for Scotland
Of course, with income tax being devolved, neither of the changes will apply in Scotland. Instead, the Scottish Government will see a smaller reduction in its block grant next year than it was expecting, boosting the resources available to it in 2023/24 (the reduction to the Scottish Government’s block grant is broadly designed to reflect what the UK government would have raised from income tax in Scotland if income tax had not been devolved, and if the UK government income tax policy had continued to apply in Scotland).
In the context of this additional resource through its block grant, the Scottish Government will then need to decide whether and how to respond through its own tax policy.
It could of course keep Scottish tax policy unchanged. This would enable it to use its additional block grant to invest in public services in Scotland. The cost of it doing this politically would be that the gap between Scottish and rUK tax policy would widen substantially. Almost all Scottish income taxpayers would pay more income tax than they would in rUK. A Scottish taxpayer with an income of £29,000 would face liabilities around £160 higher. A Scottish taxpayer with an income of £50,000 would face liabilities almost £2,000 higher (Chart 1, black line).
Chart 1: Potential difference in income tax liability between Scotland and rUK, in 2023/24
Alternatively the Scottish government could mirror UK tax cuts with tax cuts of its own. It could for example decide to reduce the starter, basic and intermediate rates by 1p. This would broadly retain the difference in tax liability for individuals between Scotland and rUK at current levels (Chart 1, grey line). It would allow the Scottish Government to retain its treasured mantra that ‘the lowest income half of Scottish taxpayers pay less tax than they would in rUK’. But such a policy would cost the Scottish government around £400m in foregone revenues.
Other policy decisions are possible. The Scottish government could decide to cut just the starter and basic rates in Scotland, rather than the intermediate rate as well, at a revenue cost of around £250m.
How the Scottish Government responds to the UK Government’s abolition of the Additional Rate will also be interesting. The Scottish Fiscal Commission is likely to forecast that abolition of the Additional Rate wouldn’t be extremely costly in revenue terms (there are expected to be around 22,000 Additional Rate taxpayers in Scotland in 2023/24 so charging them a few pence less tax on their income above £150k might not have a significant affect in aggregate, particularly if it is assumed, as the SFC will, that the tax reduction will induce some element of a positive behavioural response).
The Additional Rate policy therefore puts the Scottish Government in a difficult political position. If it retains the Additional Rate it will be accused of undermining the ‘competitiveness’ of the Scottish economy, for little direct revenue gain (without any changes to existing policy, a taxpayer with an income of £200,000 would face an additional £5,900 in income tax liabilities in Scotland compared to an equivalent taxpayer in England).
But abolition of the Additional Rate would provide a significant tax cut for the highest income 0.5% of the Scottish adult population (an individual with income of £200,000 would be better off to the tune of £2,500 if the Additional Rate is abolished). The regressivity of a cut to the top rate in Scotland is difficult to reconcile with the Scottish Government’s aspirations for progressivity.
Stamp Duty changes and implications for Scotland
The Chancellor also announced changes to Stamp Duty in England and NI, amounting to an increase in the threshold at which Stamp Duty applies to residential transactions.
As with income tax, these changes will not apply in Scotland. As with income tax, the changes to English policy will pose dilemmas for the Scottish Government when considering its policy on the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax.
The Scottish Government has until now set LBTT in such a way that homes sold in Scotland for less than around £335,000 pay less tax than an equivalent property in England. Above this price, transactions in Scotland face noticeably higher tax liabilities. The changes announced by the UK government today mean that – if there are no changes to the existing Scottish LBTT rates – all property transactions in Scotland would face higher tax liabilities than they would in England (see Chart 2).
The Stamp Duty cuts in England will generate some additional resources for the Scottish Government via its block grant. In ballpark terms the increase in resource might be around £80m. It could use this additional resource to fund public services, or to cut LBTT rates in order to maintain existing tax differentials.
Chart 2: Residential property transactions tax liabilities in Scotland and England
Investment zones – an option for Scotland but at what cost?
The UK government announced the establishment of several dozen ‘investment zones’. It is hoped that these zones will ‘drive growth and unlock housing… by lowering taxes and liberalising planning frameworks’.
Policies implemented within the investment zones will include business rate reliefs for newly occupied or expanded premises, and stamp duty relief on land bought for commercial purposes, and a zero-rate of employer National Insurance Contributions for new employees earning below £50,270.
The hoped-for impacts of these investment zones on UK-wide economic activity – as opposed to their effect on displacing economic activity within parts of the UK – is based more on hope than on empirical evidence.
Several dozen potential zones have been identified in England. The UK government says that it will work with the Scottish government and local authorities to identify zones in Scotland.
What is not yet clear is how the costs of investment zones in Scotland – in the form of reliefs on business rates and stamp duty (which are devolved) and NICs reliefs (which are not devolved) – will be distributed between the Scottish and UK governments. The Treasury’s costing document does not seem to give an indication of the funding associated with the planned investment zones in England, so it is difficult to get a sense of the fiscal scale of these interventions at this stage.
U-turn on IR35
In another regulatory reform design to unlock growth, the chancellor announced the repeal of the anti-avoidance legislation commonly known as IR35. This legislation was designed to reduce so-called “disguised employment”, whereby workers could work long-term for businesses as self-employed contractors rather than employees – and in so-doing reduce the tax liabilities faced by both themselves and the company that they were contracted to.
The IR35 regulations were introduced for public authorities in 2017, and for medium and large enterprises in 2021. The regulation has big impacts on the nature and shape of the workforce in particular sectors.
The introduction of IR35 has been a huge undertaking by public authorities and corporations to ensure compliance with the legislation, so the change announced today is a big deal. It is a shame that we don’t have the view of the OBR of the impact this could have on Income Tax and National Insurance Contributions: but the costing published today by the Treasury suggests it could cut tax receipts by £1.1 billion in 2023-24, rising to £2 billion by 2026-27.
The Energy profits levy – the existing windfall tax
Interestingly, although the Prime Minister has made it clear that additional windfall taxes were not going to be introduced on oil and gas companies, we need to remember that the Energy Profits Levy announced in May is still in place.
This is a 25% additional surcharge on the extraordinary profits that are being made by the oil and gas companies. When it was announced in May, it was expected that this could raise £5 billion this year, although there was a great deal of uncertainty about this.
Under current plans this levy will remain in place until December 2025, and on the basis of the costings published today, the Government has no plans to end it early. The policy is now forecast to raise £28 billion over the next 4 years (including this year). This is another area of costing that it would be particularly useful to get independent scrutiny from the OBR.
Summary: a gamble on growth with long odds
It is undeniably the case that the UK (and Scottish) economies have been characterised for the last 15 years by very weak growth. This has resulted in stagnation in household incomes and living standards, and constrained the growth of government revenues – with implications for investment in public services.
It makes sense therefore for the government to put the objective to raise economic growth at the centre of its strategy. But setting a 2.5% annual growth target, as the UK government has done, is much easier said than achieved.
The government’s decision to reverse the Health and Social Care Levy and cancel the planned Corporation Tax increases merely take policy back to where it has been in the recent past. It is a return to orthodoxy rather than a break from the norm, and in this sense it is difficult to see that it will make any difference to growth.
The substantial cuts to income tax do represent a bigger change to existing policy. But the hope that these will stimulate the economy is based more on blind faith than on any tangible evidence. There is no evidence internationally that countries with lower tax rates grow more quickly. Historically, UK growth rates were highest when tax rates were higher.
Whether today’s announcements unleash economic growth remains very much to be seen. Strikingly, what there was no mention of today was any plans for additional public sector investment. Despite the government’s rhetoric about reforming the ‘supply-side’ of the economy, there was little mention of the role that the skills and health of the population play in influencing the capacity of the economy to grow.
Whilst the government seems comfortable borrowing an additional £30bn or so a year to fund the tax cuts announced today, and is apparently relaxed about an over-growing burden of national debt, the path set out today will constrain the government’s room for manoeuvre on investment in public services in coming years.
At a time when parts of the public sector are struggling to deal with the legacy of the pandemic and other longstanding challenges, the implied prioritisation of tax cuts over public services investment will prove highly contentious, particularly given the regressivity of the cuts.
Households in the top 10% of the income distribution in Scotland will be better off by around £24 per week on average as a result of the cancellation of the Health and Social Care Levy, whereas those in the middle of the distribution will be only £4 per week.
The hope that the policies announced on Friday will boost growth and hence revenues despite cuts in tax rates is a big gamble with long odds.
The Chancellor today (Friday 23 September) unveiled his Growth Plan to release the huge potential in the British economy by tackling high energy costs and inflation and delivering higher productivity and wages.
Chancellor unveils new growth plan, tackling energy costs to bring down inflation, backing business and helping households.
Corporation tax rise cancelled, keeping it at 19% as government sets sights on 2.5% trend rate of growth.
Basic rate of income tax cut to 19% in April 2023 – one year earlier than planned – with 31 million people getting on average £170 more per year.
Stamp Duty cuts will help people on all levels of the property market and lift 200,000 homebuyers every year out of paying the tax altogether.
The plan set the ambitious target for 2.5% trend of growth, securing sustainable funding for public services and improving living standards for everyone.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, said: “Economic growth isn’t some academic term with no connection to the real world. It means more jobs, higher pay and more money to fund public services, like schools and the NHS.
“This will not happen overnight but the tax cuts and reforms I’ve announced today – the biggest package in generations – send a clear signal that growth is our priority.
“Cuts to stamp duty will get the housing market moving and support first-time buyers to put down roots. New Investment Zones will bring business investment and release land for new homes in communities across the country. And we’re accelerating new road, rail and energy projects by removing restrictions that have slowed down progress for too long.
“We want businesses to invest in the UK, we want the brightest and the best to work here and we want better living standards for everyone.”
Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said: “The Chancellor has set out an ambitious package of measures which will cut taxes and drive growth right across the UK.
“A strong economy is the best way to tackle the cost of living challenges we are all facing due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Our ‘Plan for Growth’ will support households and businesses in Scotland, while driving economic growth to deliver jobs, investment and prosperity.
“The UK Government is delivering for the people of Scotland when it really matters.”
Setting out the first steps towards growth, Kwasi Kwarteng revealed a package of major cuts to Stamp Duty Land Tax, with the changes expected to increase additional residential investment, boost spending on household goods and support the hundreds of thousands of jobs in the property industry from removals companies to decorators.
The nil rate band will be doubled from £125,000 to £250,000, meaning that 200,000 more people every year will be able to buy a home without paying any Stamp Duty at all. The standard buyer in England will save £2,5000, meaning a typical family moving into a semi-detached property will save £2,500 on stamp duty and £1,150 on energy bills – and if they have a combined income of £50,000 around an additional £560 on tax. This is around £4,200 in total.
And the Government is going even further to support first time buyers, who will now pay no stamp duty up to £425,000, and increasing the value of the property on which first time buyers can claim relief, from £500,000 to £625,000. This tax cut took effect from midnight today (Friday 23 Sept 2022). The Chancellor also announced that he will further support homebuyers by increasing the disposal of surplus government land to build new homes, increasing supply.
The Chancellor also set out plans to tackle to the biggest drag on growth – the high cost of energy driven by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which has driven up inflation. To tackle this the government’s Energy Price Guarantee will save the typical household £1,000 a year on their energy bill with the Energy Bill Relief Scheme halving the cost of business energy bills, reducing peak inflation by about 5 percentage points.
Also revealed today were major tax reforms to allow businesses to keep more of their own money, encouraging investment, boosting productivity and creating jobs. New measures include cancelling the planned rise in corporation tax, keeping it the lowest in the G20 at 19%, and reversing the 1.25 percentage point rise in National Insurance contributions, a change which will save 920,000 businesses almost £10,000 on average next year.
The Chancellor also announced more relief for businesses by making the Annual Investment Allowance £1 million permanently, rather than letting it return to £200,000 in March 2023. This gives 100% tax relief to businesses on their plant and machinery investments up to the higher £1 million limit.
It was also confirmed that the government is in discussion with 38 local and mayoral combined authority areas in England including Tees Valley, South Yorkshire and West of England to set up Investment Zones in specific sites within their area.
Each Investment Zone will offer generous, targeted and time limited tax cuts for businesses and liberalised planning rules to release more land for housing and commercial development. These will be hubs for growth, encouraging investment in new shopping centres, restaurants, apartments and offices, and creating thriving new communities.
Revealing further tax reforms, Kwasi Kwarteng outlined sector specific support for pubs and hospitality, freezing alcohol duty for another year. Reforms to modernise alcohol duties will also be taken forward and the government will publish a consultation on these plans.
The new measures backing business come on top of the government’s Energy Bill Relief Scheme for businesses to cap costs per unit, which will protect them from soaring energy costs this winter by providing a discount on wholesale gas and electricity prices.
The Chancellor also reiterated the important principle of people keeping more of what they earn, incentivising work and enterprise. He announced a 1p cut to the basic rate of income tax one year earlier than planned.
From April 2023, the basic rate of income tax will be cut to 19% and will mean 31 million people will be better off by an average of £170 per year. Due to the combined impact of the reversal of the HSCL and the reduction of the Income Tax Basic Rate, someone working full time on the current National Living Wage will see a tax cut of over £100.
Alongside cutting the basic rate of income tax, the Chancellor also abolished the additional rate of tax, taking effect from April 2023. In its place will be a single higher rate of income tax of 40%. The policy removes the UK’s previous top rate tax, which was higher than countries like Norway, USA and Italy, and is designed to attract the best and the brightest to the UK workforce, helping businesses innovate and grow.
In a further move to grow the economy, the Chancellor announced plans to accelerate new roads, rail and energy infrastructure. In 2021 it took 65 per cent longer to get consent for major infrastructure projects than in 2012. New legislation will cut barriers and restrictions, making it quicker to plan and build new roads, speeding up the deployment of energy infrastructure like offshore wind farms and streamlining environmental assessments and regulations.
To further support businesses, the Chancellor announced new measures to unlock private investment. The Government will change regulations to increase investment by pension funds into UK assets, benefiting savers and boosting economic growth, and incentivising investment into Britain’s science and tech companies.
New measures were also announced to help people on low incomes secure more and better paid work. Universal Credit Claimants who earn less than the equivalent of 15 hours a week at National Living Wage will be required to meet regularly with their Work Coach and take active steps to increase their earnings or face having their benefits reduced.
This change is expected to bring an additional 120,000 people into the more intensive work search regime. Jobseekers over the age of 50 will also be given extra time with jobcentre work coaches, to help them return to the jobs market.
Rising economic inactivity in the over 50s is contributing to shortages in the jobs market, driving up inflation and limiting growth. Returning to pre-pandemic activity rates in the over 50s could boost the level of GDP by 0.5-1 percentage points.
The majority of announcements today are UK-wide, however the Scottish Government is expected to receive more than £600 million extra funding over the 2021 Spending Review period as a result of the changes to income tax and Stamp Duty Land Tax and the Welsh Government will receive around £70 million over the same period as a result of the change to Stamp Duty Land Tax.
The reversal of the Health and Social Care Levy will save 4.3 million people across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland more than £230 on average next year.
In the coming weeks, the Government will set out further details of plans to speed up digital infrastructure, reform business regulation, increase housing supply, improve our immigration system, make childcare cheaper, improve farming productivity and back our financial services.
The business community has welcomed the Chancellor’s announcement.
Martin McTague, National Chair of the Federation of Small Businesses said:“The Truss Government is off to a flying start. The Chancellor has delivered pro-small business measures today and has rightly recognised that removing taxes on jobs, investment and entrepreneurs is essential for our economy.
“Ministers need to be relentless in removing barriers to small business success – especially with the current headwinds. The Government has today signalled its determination to back small firms and we look forward to working with Ministers and departments to put in place measures to help small businesses grow and succeed.”
Amanda Tickel, Head of Tax and Trade Policy, Deloitte said:“This Budget will undoubtedly attract international attention.
“With the UK now retaining the lowest corporate profits tax rate in the G20, a maximum income tax rate of 40%, and extra incentives available in investment zones, the UK is on a stronger footing to compete for international investment.
Emma Jones CBE, Founder, Enterprise Nation said:“It’s bold, it’s agile and it’s speedy. Economists will be arguing for months to come, but small businesses will be waiting for the impact of this budget trickling down into their sales tonight.
“The new administration clearly set out its stall today and that it is firmly on the side of entrepreneurs and wealth creators. The tax cuts, both business and personal, will deliver confidence and unleash the entrepreneurial spirit that we know exists across the UK and to which the Chancellor referred so often.
“The UK’s small businesses have wanted growth acceleration but have had to be content with stagnation because of barriers to growth such as access to finance, business rates and employment complexity.
“The extension of EIS and SEIS and the pension charge cap reforms will be welcomed with open arms by the small business community, and we expect more start-ups to follow with an emphasis on supporting those who are 50+ to move from unemployment into self-employment. Thanks to the removal of IR35, many experienced individuals that left the employment market will now return.
“Our view for more than a decade has been that one of the most important things a government can do is to champion entrepreneurs and this morning’s statement and announcements most seriously deliver on that.”
Kate Nicholls, CEO of UKHospitality said: “The stated objectives of boosting growth and tackling inflation are a positive statement of intent to rightly put business at the heart of the Government’s agenda.
“We support the ambition for a globally competitive tax regime, to unleash entrepreneurship, growth and investment, and we look forward to working with the Chancellor to deliver that.
“Energy support and NIC measures will allow our businesses to better plan for a tough winter ahead. Today’s announcement included many positive measures that will bear fruit in due course, and we look forward to continuing to work closely with the Government on our immediate challenges.”
Tony Danker, CBI Director-General, said:“This is a turning point for our economy. Like Covid, the energy crisis has meant Government has had to spend massively to protect people and businesses. That means we have no choice but to go for growth to afford it.
“Today is day one of a new UK growth approach. We must now use this opportunity to make it count and bring growth to every corner of the UK. Fifteen years of anaemic growth cannot be repeated.
“Taking action to get Britain’s economy moving again by beginning construction on transport and green infrastructure projects shows immediate delivery. Planning reform is long overdue.
“A simpler, smarter approach to tax can pay dividends, and firms will be keen to make the most of the investment incentives on offer.
“It’s not perfect – it’s just the beginning – but there’s plenty business can work with. The Chancellor signalled more proposals to come this Autumn and these will be vital to sustain momentum on growth.”
Michelle Ovens CBE, Founder, Small Business Britain said:“The focus on entrepreneurship in today’s Growth Plan statement is good news for small businesses, and a hugely encouraging step towards supporting this key part of the economy in a tough financial climate.
“The energy plan already announced, cutting prices for small businesses and addressing some of the astronomical rises we have seen this summer, will give businesses some reassurance over the winter months, even if there are still questions over the long term plans.
“There is no doubt that rolling back national insurance rises, IR35 regulations and the planned corporation tax rise next year will be welcomed by small businesses and the business community more widely. In the medium to long term, this will support and encourage entrepreneurial growth, which is very welcome.
“However there remain serious challenges in the short term as entrepreneurs battle with rising costs across all areas of the business, not just in energy and tax. Finance, input prices, export and staffing all remain challenging and we continue to see businesses failing at a high rate with little to fall back on after a very difficult few years.
“More will need to be done at all levels of society and government to ensure the 5.6 million small businesses in the UK can weather this winter and make the most of the supportive policies announced today.
“The direction of travel is absolutely right for small businesses. This now needs to be delivered by us all.”
Nicolas Burquier, Managing Director of Pizza Hut Europe said:“It’s great to see Government has acknowledged and is acting on the significant pressures facing the UK hospitality sector as a result of the rise in global inflation.
“Combined with the recently announced support on energy bills, the tax changes and Investment Zones unveiled today, all will offer some respite for many hard-pressed restaurants and takeaway owners like our franchisees.
“We look forward to continuing to work with the Government to ensure that hospitality receives the sustained support it requires as the sector looks to recover from current setbacks.”
Dr Liz Cameron CBE, Director & Chief Executive, Scottish Chambers of Commerce said:“The Chancellor’s commitment to pro-growth and pro-enterprise policies will be eagerly welcomed by businesses. The specifics on reducing business costs, cutting red tape and boosting infrastructure development are exactly the levers the UK Government should be pulling to support economic growth.
“The plans for Investment Zones strike an ambitious tone but these plans must provide equitable benefits to the UK nations ensuring new economic activity is generated, not simply displaced from one location to another. Similarly, fixing the complex and burdensome planning system must be a joint priority for both the Scottish and UK Government if we are to attract investors.
“As we look ahead to the Scottish Government’s emergency budget, businesses and households now play the waiting game to see if the Scottish Government opts to take similar moves. With control of powers such as income tax and land & buildings transaction tax devolved to Scotland, the expectation will be for Scottish Government to deliver parity with the rest of the UK. Divergence between the nations risks dampening business and investor confidence.
“The string of policy announcements from the Chancellor signal a bold start. As firms continue to navigate unprecedented challenges in the economy, consistent collaboration and partnership will be essential between both governments and the business community if we are to move from survival to growth.”
Stephen Phipson, Chief Executive, Make UK said:“The Chancellor has clearly recognised that we are heading for very stormy waters in the face of eyewatering increases in energy and other costs, together with a difficult international environment.
“Industry will welcome today’s statement which, coming on the back of the support for energy, contains a number of positive measures to help shield viable companies from the worst impact of escalating costs and help protect jobs. The focus on prioritising growth with plans to speed up planning reforms, boost infrastructure and investment is especially welcome.
“However, this is the sixth growth plan in little over a decade which has seen ever increasing political uncertainty. This has resulted in zero certainty for business, the most important thing it needs. Government must try and reverse this process by working with industry to develop a long-term economic strategy together with a National Manufacturing Plan.
“At its heart must be a properly designed tax system and a certainty of policy that aims to transform the low level of business investment, develops the workforce of the future and equips people with the digital skills they will need in the new industries and technologies which are rapidly emerging.
“Given the tools and, the right economic environment, industry can help itself and, at the same time, help the Government meet its growth target. Now is the time to end to put in place the right building blocks for the long-term.”
Emma McClarkin, Chief Executive of the British Beer and Pub Association, said:“We welcome the steps taken by the Government in the Chancellor’s fiscal statement. The measures announced today will mean a boost of £500m for our sector, enabling growth following successive crises and allowing us to thrive in the future.
“Coupled with this week’s intervention on energy bills, these commitments will make a significant difference to our pubs and brewers at an acutely difficult time.
“The Chancellor’s plans show that the Government recognises how extreme the cost of doing business has become and the enormous investment our sector makes, not only in the economy, but to the social fabric of communities across the breadth of the UK and why it must be protected. We look forward to the continued reduction of taxation on the sector at the next Budget – the need for a reduced VAT rate for hospitality and business rates reliefs remain as strong as ever.
“We will continue to work with the Government to ensure that reforms to the draft beer duty rates are brought forward as soon as possible, meaning that our pubs and brewers can contribute to, and be at the heart of villages, towns and cities for many years to come.”
Shevaun Havilland, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce said:“Businesses will welcome many of the measures announced today that should boost economic growth, relieve cost pressures and encourage investment.
“The announcement to reverse the increase to National Insurance Contributions (NIC) is a big win for the British Chambers of Commerce and the business community. This is much needed support for companies during these difficult times.
“Firms will also be glad to see the Annual Investment Allowance made permanent. It is a crucial tool which gives them the confidence to push ahead with investment, and will add greater certainty to their plans, now we know it is guaranteed to remain.
“Business wants to create the wealth that funds Government spending, and plans for Investment Zones, and steps to encourage new funding in our growth industries have the potential to do just that.
“Investment Zones could also finally deliver on the Government’s long-standing promise to level up, if the scheme is truly UK-wide. But lessons must be learned from the past, otherwise they can simply displace growth and investment from one area to another without creating new economic activity.
“This is a bold start, and we now await further detail on the further reforms the Treasury announced, to see if this will develop into a comprehensive long-term economic strategy.
“All eyes will also now turn to the forecasts by the Office of Budget Responsibility in the autumn for reassurance on public finances.”
TUC: ‘ROBIN HOOD IN REVERSE’
Union body attacks Liz Truss for holding down wages while lining bankers’ pockets – “The party of pay cuts strikes again.”
Fresh attack on right to strike is “designed to hold down pay”
Responding to today’s ‘mini budget’, which announced tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, but no help to get wages rising in the current cost of living crisis, TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “This budget is Robin Hood in reverse.
“We should be rewarding work, not wealth. But at the first opportunity, Liz Truss is holding down wages and lining the pockets of big corporations and City bankers. The party of pay cuts strikes again.
“We need a very different plan in the full autumn budget to do right by workers. The Chancellor should boost the minimum wage, universal credit and pensions before winter sets in.
“He should fund pay rises in the public sector that keep up with prices. And ministers should extend collective pay bargaining rights across the economy so that whatever your job, you can negotiate a fair pay rise.”
On restrictions on the right to strike, she added:“Nobody takes the decision to strike lightly. But the right to strike to defend pay and conditions is a fundamental British freedom.
“And it’s the last line of defence against employers who refuse to negotiate fair pay. These new restrictions are unworkable, very likely illegal and designed to hold down pay across the economy.”
On support with energy costs and the government’s rejection of calls for a higher windfall tax, she added:“Ministers are letting oil and gas giants use Britain like a cash machine with no withdrawal limit.
“We need a much higher windfall tax on greedy energy companies to protect families from profiteering. That could fund free home improvements so that families don’t lose money by leaking heat from their homes.”
The TUC’s submission to the Treasury in advance of today’s mini budget called for the following actions:
Bring forward inflation proof increases in the minimum wage, universal credit and pensions to October to help families through the cost-of-living emergency.
Get the minimum wage on a path to £15 an hour as soon as possible.
Give public service staff a real-terms pay rise that at least matches the rising cost of living and begins to restore earnings lost over the last decade.
Strengthen and extend collective bargaining across the economy, including introducing fair pay agreements to set minimum pay across whole sectors.
Impose a larger windfall tax on oil and gas companies that that are profiteering from UK families.
Make sure everyone pays their fair share of taxes by going ahead with increases in corporate tax, and equalising capital gains tax rates with income tax as a first step to fair taxes on wealth.
Chancellor’s measures fail to target support
Deputy First Minister says statement is ‘cold comfort for many’
The Chancellor’s fiscal statement and package of announcements targets the most wealthy, shifting further pressure onto the shoulders of those on the lowest incomes, Deputy First Minister John Swinney has said.
Reacting to the statement, Mr Swinney expressed his disappointment that while many households across Scotland are already struggling to pay their bills and heat their homes, the measures offer tax cuts for corporations and bankers.
The Deputy First Minister said: “The Chancellor’s statement today will provide cold comfort to the millions of people across Scotland who have been looking for the UK Government to use its reserved powers to provide support for those that need it most. Instead we get tax cuts for the rich and little for those who need it most.
“We estimate that the increase in the price cap to £2,500 will force an estimated 150,000 more Scottish households into extreme fuel poverty. Instead of offering these people support, the Chancellor is threatening to cut their family budgets further, with a new regime of benefit sanctions.
“On Land and Buildings Transaction Tax and on Scottish income tax, the Scottish Government will set out its plans as part of the normal budget process. We will discuss the proposed investment zones with the UK Government but we are clear they have to be the right fit for Scotland.
“Because of inflation, the Scottish Government’s budget is worth £1.7 billion less than it was when we set it in December, yet the Chancellor has refused to provide a single additional penny for public services or increase public sector pay.
“We are doing everything within our power to support people, public services and the economy, but these efforts are under threat by a reckless UK Government beginning a new, and dangerous race to the bottom. With a fixed Budget and no scope to borrow for short term challenges, Scotland is at the mercy of UK decisions. This reinforces the urgent need for independence.”
Factsheets on each of the major measures can be found here:
The Growth Plan speech delivered by Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng:
Mr Speaker,
Let me start directly with the issue most worrying the British people – the cost of energy.
People will have seen the horrors of Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
They will have heard reports that their already-expensive energy bills could reach as high as £6,500 next year.
Mr Speaker, we were never going to let this happen.
The Prime Minister has acted with great speed to announce one of the most significant interventions the British state has ever made.
People need to know that help is coming.
And help is indeed coming.
We are taking three steps to support families and businesses with the cost of energy.
Firstly, to help households, the Energy Price Guarantee will limit the unit price that consumers pay for electricity and gas.
This means that for the next two years, the typical annual household bill will be £2,500.
For a typical household, that is a saving of at least £1,000 a year, based on current prices.
We are continuing our existing plans to give all households £400 off bills this winter.
So taken together, Mr Speaker, we are cutting everyone’s energy bills by an expected £1,400 this year.
And millions of the most vulnerable households will receive additional payments, taking their total savings this year to £2,200.
Secondly, as well as helping people, we need to support the businesses who employ them.
The Energy Bill Relief Scheme will reduce wholesale gas and electricity prices for all UK businesses, charities, and the public sector like schools and hospitals.
This will provide a price guarantee equivalent to the one provided for households, for all businesses across the country.
Thirdly, energy prices are extremely volatile, erratically rising and falling every hour.
This creates real risks to energy firms who are otherwise viable businesses.
Those firms help supply the essential energy needed by households and businesses.
So to support the market, we are announcing the Energy Markets Financing Scheme.
Delivered with the Bank of England, this scheme will provide a 100% guarantee for commercial banks to offer emergency liquidity to energy traders.
Mr Speaker,
The consensus amongst independent forecasters is that the Government’s energy plan will reduce peak inflation by around 5 percentage points.
It will reduce the cost of servicing index-linked government debt and lower wider cost of living pressures.
And it will help millions of people and businesses right across the country with the cost of energy.
Let no one doubt: during the worst energy crisis in generations, this Government is on the side of the British people.
The Bank of England are taking further steps to control inflation, acting again only yesterday.
I can assure the House, this Government considers the Bank of England’s independence to be sacrosanct.
And we remain closely coordinated, with the Governor and myself speaking twice a week.
But Mr Speaker,
High energy costs are not the only challenge confronting this country.
Growth is not as high as it should be.
This has made it harder to pay for public services, requiring taxes to rise.
In turn, higher taxes on capital and labour have lowered returns on investment and work, reducing economic incentives and hampering growth still further.
This cycle has led to the tax burden being forecast to reach the highest levels since the late 1940s – before even Her Late Majesty acceded to the throne.
We are determined to break that cycle.
We need a new approach for a new era, focused on growth.
Our aim, over the medium term, is to reach a trend rate of growth of 2.5%.
And our plan is to expand the supply side of the economy through tax incentives and reform.
That is how we will deliver higher wages, greater opportunities, and crucially, fund public services, now and into the future.
That is how we will compete successfully with dynamic economies around the world.
That is how we will turn the vicious cycle of stagnation into a virtuous cycle of growth.
So as a Government, we will focus on growth – even where that means taking difficult decisions.
None of this is going to happen overnight. But today we are publishing our Growth Plan that sets out a new approach for this new era, built around three central priorities:
Reforming the supply-side of the economy.
Maintaining responsible approach to public finances
And cutting taxes to boost growth.
Mr Speaker,
The UK has the second-lowest debt to GDP ratio of any G7 country.
In due course, we will publish a Medium-Term Fiscal Plan, setting out our responsible fiscal approach more fully.
Including how we plan to reduce debt as a percentage of GDP over the medium term.
And the OBR will publish a full economic and fiscal forecast before the end of the year, with a second to follow in the new year.
Fiscal responsibility remains essential for economic confidence, and it is a path we remain committed to.
Today we are publishing costings of all the measures the Government has taken.
And those costings will be incorporated into the OBR’s forecast in the usual way.
The House should note that the estimated costs of our energy plans are particularly uncertain, given volatile energy prices.
But based on recent prices, the total cost of the energy package, for the six months from October, is expected to be around £60bn.
We expect the cost to come down as we negotiate new, long term energy contracts with suppliers.
And, in the context of a global energy crisis, it is entirely appropriate for the government to use our borrowing powers to fund temporary measures in order to support families and businesses.
That’s what we did during the Covid-19 pandemic.
A sizeable intervention was right then…and it is right now.
The heavy price of inaction would have been far greater than the cost of these schemes.
Mr Speaker,
We are at the beginning of a new era.
As we contemplate this new era, we recognise that there is huge potential in our country.
We have unbounded entrepreneurial drive.
We have highly skilled people.
We have immense global presence in sectors like finance, life sciences, technology, and clean energy.
But Mr Speaker, there are too many barriers for enterprise. We need a new approach to break them down. That means reforming the supply side of our economy.
Over the coming weeks, my Cabinet colleagues will update the House on every aspect of our ambitious agenda.
Those updates will cover: the planning system, business regulations, childcare, immigration, agricultural productivity, and digital infrastructure.
And Mr Speaker, we start this work today.
An essential foundation of growth is infrastructure.
The roads, railways, and networks that carry people, goods, and information all over our country.
Today, our planning system for major infrastructure is too slow and fragmented.
The time it takes to get consent for nationally significant projects is getting slower, not quicker, while our international competitors forge ahead.
We have to end this.
We can announce that in the coming months, we will bring forward a new Bill to unpick the complex patchwork of planning restrictions and EU-derived laws that constrain our growth.
We will streamline a whole host of assessments, appraisals, consultations, endless duplications, and regulations.
We will also review the government’s business case process to speed up decision making.
And today, we are publishing a list of infrastructure projects that will be prioritised for acceleration, in sectors like transport, energy, and telecoms.
And, to increase housing supply and enable forthcoming planning reforms, we will also increase the disposal of surplus government land to build new homes.
Mr Speaker, we are getting out of the way to get Britain building.
Mr Speaker,
One of the proudest achievements of our government is that unemployment is at the lowest level for nearly fifty years.
But with more vacancies than unemployed people to fill them, we need to encourage people to join the labour market.
We will make work pay by reducing people’s benefits if they don’t fulfil their job search commitments.
We’ll provide extra support for unemployed over-50s.
And we’ll ask around 120,000 more people on Universal Credit to take active steps to seek more and better paid work, or face having their benefits reduced.
And, Mr Speaker,
At such a critical time for our economy, it is simply unacceptable that strike action is disrupting so many lives.
Other European countries have Minimum Service Levels to stop militant trade unions closing down transport networks during strikes.
So we will do the same.
And we will go further.
We will legislate to require unions to put pay offers to a member vote, to ensure strikes can only be called once negotiations have genuinely broken down.
Of course, Mr Speaker, to drive growth, we need new sources of capital investment.
To this end, I can announce that we will accelerate reforms to the pension charge cap so that it will no longer apply to well-designed performance fees.
This will unlock pension fund investment into UK assets and innovative, high growth businesses.
It will benefit savers and increase growth.
And, we will provide up to £500 million to support new innovative funds and attract billions of additional pounds into UK science and technology scale-ups.
And Mr Speaker, this brings me to the cap on bankers’ bonuses.
A strong UK economy has always depended on a strong financial services sector.
We need global banks to create jobs here, invest here, and pay taxes here in London, not Paris, not Frankfurt, not New York.
All the bonus cap did was to push up the basic salaries of bankers, or drive activity outside Europe.
It never capped total remuneration, so let’s not sit here and pretend otherwise.
So we’re going to get rid of it.
And to reaffirm the UK’s status as the world’s financial services centre, I will set out an ambitious package of regulatory reforms later in the Autumn.
But Mr Speaker,
To support growth right across the country, we need to go further, with targeted action in local areas.
So today, I can announce the creation of new investment zones.
We will liberalise planning rules in specified agreed sites, releasing land and accelerating development.
And we will cut taxes.
For businesses in designated tax sites, for ten years, there will be:
Accelerated tax reliefs for structures and buildings.
And 100% tax relief on qualifying investments in plant and machinery.
On purchases of land and buildings for commercial or new residential development, there will be no stamp duty to pay whatsoever.
On newly occupied business premises, there will be no business rates to pay whatsoever.
And if a business hires a new employee in the tax site, then on the first £50,000 they earn…
…the employer will pay no National Insurance whatsoever.
That is an unprecedented set of tax incentives for business to invest, to build, and to create jobs right across the country.
I can confirm for the House that we’re in early discussions with nearly 40 places like Tees Valley, the West Midlands, Norfolk and the West of England to establish Investment Zones.
And we’ll work with the devolved administrations and local partners to make sure Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will also benefit, if they are willing to do so.
If we really want to level up, Mr Speaker – we have to unleash the power of the private sector.
And now, Mr Speaker, we come to tax – central to solving the riddle of growth.
The tax system is not simply about raising revenue for public services, vitally important though that is. Tax determines the incentives across our whole economy.
And we believe that high taxes reduce incentives to work, they deter investment and they hinder enterprise.
As the Prime Minister has said, we will review the tax system to make it simpler, more dynamic, and fairer for families.
And we are taking that first step today.
Mr Speaker,
The interests of businesses are not separate from the interest of individuals and families.
In fact, it is businesses that employ most people in this country.
It is businesses that invest in the products and services we rely on.
Every additional tax on business is ultimately passed through to families through higher prices, lower pay, or lower returns on savings.
So I can therefore confirm that next year’s planned increase in Corporation Tax will be cancelled.
The UK’s corporate tax rate will not rise to 25% – it will remain at 19%.
We will have the lowest rate of Corporation Tax in the G20.
This will plough almost £19bn a year back into the economy.
That’s £19bn for businesses to reinvest, create jobs, raise wages, or pay the dividends that support our pensions.
I’ve already taken steps elsewhere in this statement to support financial services, so the Bank Surcharge will remain at 8%.
But, Mr Speaker, we will do more to encourage private investment.
The Annual Investment Allowance, which gives 100% tax relief on investments in plant and machinery, will not fall to £200,000 as planned…
It will remain at £1m.
And it will do so permanently.
Our duty is to make the UK one of the most competitive economies in the world – and we are delivering.
And Mr Speaker,
We want this country to be an entrepreneurial, share-owning democracy.
The Enterprise Investment Scheme. The Venture Capital Trusts. We will extend them beyond 2025.
The Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme. Company Share Option Plans. We will increase the limits to make them more generous.
Crucial steps on the road to making this a nation of entrepreneurs.
Mr Speaker,
For the tax system to favour growth, it needs to be much simpler.
I’m hugely grateful to the Office of Tax Simplification for everything they have achieved since 2010.
But instead of a single arms-length body which is separate from the Treasury and HMRC, we need to embed tax simplification into the heart of Government.
That is why I have decided to wind down the Office of Tax Simplification, and mandated every one of my tax officials to focus on simplifying our tax code.
To achieve a simpler system, I will start by removing unnecessary costs for business.
Firstly, we will automatically sunset EU regulations by December 2023, requiring departments to review, replace or repeal retained EU law.
This will reduce burdens on business, improve growth, and restore the primacy of UK legislation.
Mr Speaker, we can also simplify the IR35 rules – and we will.
In practice, reforms to off-payroll working have added unnecessary complexity and cost for many businesses.
So, as promised by My RHF the Prime Minister, we will repeal the 2017 and 2021 reforms.
Of course, we will continue to keep compliance closely under review.
Mr Speaker,
Britain welcomes millions of tourists every year, and I want our high streets and airports, our ports and our shopping centres, to feel the economic benefit.
So we have decided to introduce VAT-free shopping for overseas visitors.
We will replace the old paper-based system with a modern, digital one.
And this will be in place as soon as possible.
This is a priority for our great British retailers – so it is our priority, too.
Our drive to modernise also extends to alcohol duties.
I have listened to industry concerns about the ongoing reforms.
I will therefore introduce an 18-month transitional measure for wine duty.
I will also extend draught relief to cover smaller kegs of 20 litres and above, to help smaller breweries.
And, at this difficult time, we are not going to let alcohol duty rates rise in line with RPI.
So I can announce that the planned increases in the duty rates for beer, for cider, for wine, and for spirits will all be cancelled.
Now, Mr Speaker, we come to the question of personal taxation.
It is an important principle that people should keep more of the money they earn. And it is good policy to boost the incentives for work and enterprise.
Yesterday, we introduced a Bill that means the Health and Social Care Levy will not begin next year… it will be cancelled.
The increase in Employer National Insurance Contributions and dividends tax… will be cancelled.
And the interim increase in the National Insurance rate, brought in for this tax year…will be cancelled.
And this cut will take effect from the earliest possible moment, November 6th.
Reversing the Levy delivers a tax cut for 28 million people, worth, on average, £330 every year;
A tax cut for nearly a million businesses;
And I can confirm: the additional funding for the NHS and social care services will be maintained at the same level.
Mr Speaker,
I have another measure.
Today’s statement is about growth.
Home ownership is the most common route for people to own an asset, giving them a stake in the success of our economy and society.
So to support growth, increase confidence, and help families aspiring to own their own home, I can announce that we are cutting stamp duty.
In the current system, there is no stamp duty to pay on the first £125,000 of a property’s value.
We are doubling that – to £250,000.
First time buyers currently pay no stamp duty on the first £300,000.
We’re increasing that threshold as well, to £425,000.
And we’re going to increase the value of the property on which first time buyers can claim relief, from £500,000 to £625,000.
The steps we’ve taken today mean 200,000 more people will be taken out of paying stamp duty altogether.
This is a permanent cut to stamp duty, effective from today.
And Mr Speaker,
I have another measure.
High tax rates damage Britain’s competitiveness.
They reduce the incentive to work, invest, and start a business.
And the higher the tax, the more ways people seek to avoid them, or work elsewhere or simply work less…
…rather than putting their time and effort to more creative and productive ends.
Take the additional rate of income tax.
At 45%, it is currently higher than the headline top rate in G7 countries like the US and Italy.
And it is higher even than social democracies like Norway.
But I’m not going to cut the additional rate of tax today, Mr Speaker.
I’m going to abolish it altogether.
From April 2023, we will have a single higher rate of income tax of 40 per cent.
This will simplify the tax system and make Britain more competitive.
It will reward enterprise and work.
It will incentivise growth.
It will benefit the whole economy and whole country.
And, Mr Speaker, after all, this only returns us to the same top rate we had for 20 years.
And that’s not all.
I can announce today that we will cut the basic rate of income tax to 19p in April 2023 – one year early.
That means a tax cut for over 31 million people in just a few months’ time.
This means we will have one of the most competitive and pro-growth income tax systems in the world.
Mr Speaker,
For too long in this country, we have indulged in a fight over redistribution.
Now, we need to focus on growth, not just how we tax and spend.
We won’t apologise for managing the economy in a way that increases prosperity and living standards.
Our entire focus is on making Britain more globally competitive – not losing out to our competitors abroad.
The Prime Minister promised that this would be a tax-cutting government.
Today, we have cut stamp duty.
We have allowed businesses to keep more of their own money to invest, to innovate, and to grow.
We have cut income tax and national insurance for millions of workers.
And we are securing our place in a fiercely competitive global economy…
…with lower rates of corporation tax…
…and lower rates of personal tax.
We promised to prioritise growth.
We promised a new approach for a new era.
We promised, Mr Speaker, to release the enormous potential of this country.
Our Growth Plan has delivered all those promises and more.
Dogs Trust warns many families are in danger of losing their dogs to the financial crisis this winter
43% of dog owners in Scotland think it is now more difficult to give their dog all they need, compared to before the cost of living crisis began.
As new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget looms, the UK’s leading dog welfare charity, which has a rehoming centre in Glasgow and West Calder, has warned that it is receiving unprecedented numbers of enquiries from desperate dog owners who feel they’ve run out of options.
Record numbers
In recent months, the charity has received a record number of calls from people asking it to take in their dogs. August surpassed its previous record for the most enquiries in a single month, with almost 5,000 (4,993) owners enquiring about its handover service – a 14% increase on July this year, and a 26% increase from August 2021.
September YouGov poll
The number of people looking to give up their dogs is placed in context by Dogs Trust’s September poll of the UK’s dog owners, run by YouGov. This month’s poll shows that 43% of respondents in Scotland thought they would find it more difficult to give their dog all they needed, compared to before the cost of living crisis began.
Vet bills continued to cause the most worry; 52% of dog owners in Scotland said vet bills were currently their biggest financial canine concern for the coming year. 23% of respondents were most worried about the cost of dog food, while 10% named insurance as their lead worry.
Meanwhile, when non-dog owners were asked, as part of the September poll, whether the rising cost of living would prevent them from adopting or buying a dog, more than 6 out of ten (65%) said it would.
Owen Sharp, Dogs Trust CEO, says: “Dogs Trust has been receiving a shocking and unprecedented number of calls from dog owners asking us to take in their dogs because they feel they won’t be able to see them through this crisis.
“Over the last month, we received on average 17 handover calls an hour from desperate owners feeling they’ve run out of options.
“Combine this with the fact that 65% of people in Scotland told us, in our new cost of living poll, that they wouldn’t be prepared to take on a dog right now, and it’s clear to see we’re about to have a serious animal welfare issue on our hands.”
How you can help
As the nation faces its worst financial crisis in decades, Dogs Trust is urgently seeking help for the dogs who will feel the impact. The charity is calling out, in particular, to people with space in their homes and hearts for dogs that are more difficult to find forever homes for, such as big dogs, un-housetrained dogs, and dogs with challenging behaviour.
Chancellor set to outline his vision for “a new era for Britain” focused on economic growth.
38 local and combined authorities in England in the running to establish new Investment Zones to get their local economies growing.
Kwasi Kwarteng is expected to announce new legislation to speed up the delivery of around 100 major infrastructure projects across the UK.
THE CHANCELLOR will today promise “a new era for Britain” focused on driving economic growth.
Kwasi Kwarteng will announce The Growth Plan – a major package of over 30 measures to tackle high energy bills, drive down inflation and cut taxes to drive growth, while maintaining responsible public finances.
Igniting growth by lowering taxes and cutting regulation is this government’s central mission – it will encourage business investment, drive growth, create jobs, improve living standards for everyone and promote confidence in the UK economy.
Speaking about his priorities in his speech to the House of Commons, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, is expected to say: “Growth is not as high as it needs to be, which has made it harder to pay for public services, requiring taxes to rise.
“This cycle of stagnation has led to the tax burden being forecast to reach the highest levels since the late 1940s.
“We are determined to break that cycle. We need a new approach for a new era focused on growth.
“That is how we will deliver higher wages, greater opportunities and sufficient revenue to fund our public services, now and into the future.
“That is how we will compete successfully with dynamic economies around the world.
“That is how we will turn the vicious cycle of stagnation into a virtuous cycle of growth.
“We will be bold and unashamed in pursuing growth – even where that means taking difficult decisions.
“The work of delivery begins today”.
The Chancellor will announce that the government is in discussion with 38 local and mayoral combined authority areas in England including West Midlands, Tees Valley, Somerset and Hull to set up new Investment Zones in specific sites within their area. These will be hubs for growth and are emblematic of the modern Britain that this government want to create.
Under a brand-new initiative, each Investment Zone will offer generous, targeted and time-limited tax cuts for businesses, backing them to increase productivity and create new jobs. This could encourage investment in new shopping centres, restaurants, apartments and offices – creating thriving new communities.
These areas will also benefit from further liberalised planning rules to release more land for housing and commercial development, and reforms to increase the speed of delivering development.
It will include reforms to environmental regulation and streamlined local and national planning policies, for example removing height restrictions on development, so that Investment Zones can bring forward more development – including housing and commercial sites – at the pace needed to boost growth.
Time-consuming negotiations between councils and developers for each project over affordable housing contributions will be scrapped. This will be replaced with a set percentage of affordable homes, whilst ensuring communities get the infrastructure they want and need.
Investment Zones will only be established with support from local leaders. The government will work closely with areas to develop tailored proposals that support their ambitions and deliver benefits for local residents.
The Government will work in partnership with Devolved Administrations and local partners in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to deliver Investment Zones.
The Chancellor is expected to say: “The time it takes to get consent for nationally significant projects is getting slower, not quicker, while our international competitors forge ahead. We have to end this.
“To support growth right across the country, we need to go further, with targeted action in local areas.
“We will liberalise planning rules in specified agreed sites, releasing land and accelerating development.
“And we will cut taxes, with businesses in designated sites enjoying the benefit of generous tax reliefs”.
The Chancellor will also set out an ambitious package of measures, including new legislation, to accelerate the delivery of around 100 major infrastructure projects across the country. The Growth Plan also sets out the infrastructure projects that the government will prioritise for acceleration, across transport, energy, and digital infrastructure.
In 2021 it took 65 per cent longer to get consent for major infrastructure projects than in 2012, with not a single new nuclear-power station finished since 1995.
The development, consultation and consent for a large road scheme takes an average of 5 to 7 seven years, while some offshore wind farms can take up to 13 years from development to deployment and other projects require 34,000 pages of documentation.
The Norfolk Vanguard wind farm, a 1.8GW-wind farm project located in the off the coast of Norfolk that will power almost 2 million homes, took almost 4 years to go through just the planning stages and faced a legal challenge over the visual impact of the scheme delaying the development consent by a further year.
The Junction 10A of the M20, an international route which is used by large volumes of heavy goods and holiday traffic, took seven and a half years from the review of the preferred scheme to be granted planning permission due to delays in the planning system.
The Chancellor will set out plans to reverse this trend speeding up projects including new roads and railways, by reducing the burden of environmental assessments in the consultation process and reforming habitats and species regulations, driving the UK’s economic growth.
Legislation will be brought forward in the coming months to address barriers to delivery by reducing unnecessary burdens to speed up the delivery of vital infrastructure.
These reforms are part of the government’s effort to accelerate projects vital to securing our energy security, such as 6GW capacity of offshore wind power and support other nationally significant infrastructure such as Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C, A417 Air Balloon and Project Gigabit.
Drop false choice between the environment and the economy, urges CPRE
Commenting on the Chancellor’s mini-Budget, Sarah McMonagle, Acting Director of Campaigns and Policy at CPRE, the countryside charity, said: ‘This government needs to drop the false choice between the environment and the economy and get on with delivering the basic building blocks for thriving rural communities that have been neglected for too long.
“But sadly, the government seems hell bent on repeating the mistakes of the past rather than pursuing the policies rural communities really need in order to thrive.
‘If ministers want to see booming high streets in our market towns then they should be investing in a reliable and comprehensive bus network, not fast tracking road building schemes that have long since been proven not to deliver meaningful economic gains.
‘If ministers want to see more money in people’s pockets they should be delivering a massive programme of genuinely affordable homes not trying to bypass the democratic planning system.
‘If ministers want to keep business costs down, they should be making use of the 250,000 hectares of south facing commercial roofspace across the country to achieve a revolution in cheap domestically generated solar energy, not breaking manifesto commitments by trying to resurrect a fracking industry that will have no meaningful impact on wholesale gas prices.
‘The government’s plan to achieve growth by allowing businesses to trash the environment is a recipe for disaster that will ultimately leave rural communities poorer.’
The TUC has today (Thursday) called on the Chancellor to bring forward an emergency budget that delivers for “working Britain”.
In a submission to the Treasury, the union body warns the government not to repeat the same mistakes of the “Osborne era” when pay and public services were slashed and huge tax breaks were given to big business.
The TUC says the priority for ministers must be to get wages rising across the economy and to fix the staffing crises plaguing hospitals, social care, education and other frontline services.
Pressure on wages
New analysis from the union federation shows that real wages down are down by over £100 a month compared to this time last year – a number that rises to £190 for public sector workers.
For the typical nurse this means a real-terms pay cut of £1,000 over the next year and a real-terms pay drop of £4,300 since 2010.
The TUC says rather than “handing out bungs” to corporations and City bankers the government should:
Bring forward inflation proof increases in the minimum wage, universal credit and pensions to October to help families through the cost-of-living emergency.
Get the minimum wage on a path to £15 an hour as soon as possible.
Give public service staff a real-terms pay rise that at least matches the rising cost of living and begins to restore earnings lost over the last decade.
Strengthen and extend collective bargaining across the economy, including introducing fair pay agreements to set minimum pay across whole sectors.
Impose a larger windfall tax on oil and gas companies that that are profiteering from UK families.
Make sure everyone pays their fair share of taxes by going ahead with increases in corporate tax, and equalising capital gains tax rates with income tax as a first step to fair taxes on wealth.
Speaking ahead of Friday’s emergency budget, TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said:“Friday’s mini budget is an acid test for this government. Are ministers on the side of working people, or more interested in handing out bungs to big business and City bankers?
“Tax cuts will do nothing to jumpstart the economy and will only line the pockets of the wealthy and companies like Amazon.
“When millions are struggling to make ends meet, the Chancellor should focus on getting wages rising across the economy – not helping out corporations.
“That means a £15 minimum wage as soon as possible, boosting universal credit and fair pay deals for workers across the economy.
“And it means ensuring those who’ve profited from this crisis pay their fair share – with a bigger windfall tax on oil and gas giants like Shell and BP, and new taxes on wealth.”
On the need to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past, Frances added:“We need a budget the delivers for working Britain – not more continuity conservatism.
“Kwasi Kwarteng mustn’t reheat the failed policies of the Cameron-Osborne government, which slashed pay, workers’ rights and public services.
“This pushed people into debt and locked families into years of declining living standards.
“After the longest wage squeeze in modern history, people can’t afford to tighten their belts any more.”