“all the parties still have something to play for tomorrow”
Ipsos MORI’s final 2021 Scottish Parliament election poll for STV News indicates that the SNP is on course to win significantly more of the vote than any other party at the election on 6th May.
Our headline estimate of voting intention on the constituency vote is:
- SNP: 50% (-3 compared with our last poll of 29 March – 4 April)
- Scottish Labour: 22% (+4)
- Scottish Conservatives: 20% (unchanged)
- Scottish Liberal Democrats: 6% (unchanged)
- Scottish Green Party: 2% (unchanged)
- Other: 1% (unchanged)
Our headline estimate of voting intention on the regional list vote is:
- SNP: 39% (+1)
- Scottish Conservatives: 23% (+2)
- Scottish Labour: 18% (unchanged)
- Scottish Green Party: 12% (unchanged)
- Scottish Liberal Democrats: 4% (-2)
- The Alba Party: 2% (-1)
- Other: 2% (unchanged)
These findings confirm that the SNP is going into Thursday’s election in a very strong position. However, it is not possible to predict with confidence on the basis of these results whether the SNP will definitely win an outright majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament.
This is both because specific local circumstances will play a role and because all polls are subject to a margin of error, which could easily be the difference between the SNP gaining an outright majority and falling short of this.
When it comes to the contest for second place, Labour and the Conservatives look to be going into the constituency vote contest neck and neck. The Conservatives look slightly more comfortably ahead on regional list voting intention (23%, compared with 18% for Labour).
The Greens, on 12%, look set to increase their share of the regional vote on the 6% they achieved in 2016. As in 2016, they look likely to finish ahead of the Liberal Democrats in share of regional list votes.
The Alba Party, on just 2%, may struggle to gain enough votes to return any MSPs (although this is, of course, dependent on whether they secure a higher level than this in specific regions).
Among likely voters, 12% say they may still change their mind before they cast their constituency vote.
This rises to 21% of Labour supporters who may change their mind, while SNP and Conservative supporters are more likely to say that they have definitely decided to vote for their party (91% and 90%).
Similarly, 14% say they may still change their mind before they cast their regional list vote.
15% of Labour supporters, 11% of Conservative supporters and 9% of SNP supporters say they may change their mind on the list vote
Three quarters (74%) of SNP constituency voters say they will vote ‘both votes SNP’ by casting their regional list vote for the party as well.
The remaining 26% are most likely to say they will cast their list vote for the Scottish Green Party (18% of SNP constituency voters say this), with a small minority saying they will vote for The Alba Party (4%) or Scottish Labour (3%) on the regional list.
The Scottish public are evenly split on independence. Among those likely to vote in an independence referendum, 50% say they would vote Yes while 50% would vote No.
Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, commented: “Whether there will be a SNP majority or not hangs in the balance.
“The election result may come down to how the parties perform in a small number of key marginal seats, as well as in the regional vote, which is likely to prove particularly important in determining which party is in second place.
“With a relatively high percentage of voters still saying they’ve not definitely decided, all the parties still have something to play for tomorrow.”
