“Brexit makes Scottish independence more likely”
Speaking at an event in Dumfries, Philip Rycroft, who was head of the Department for Leaving the European Union until 2019, said the barriers that now exists between the UK and its major EU markets acts as a ‘drag anchor’ on the UK and reduces productivity growth.
“Coming out of the EU means we will be poorer than otherwise we would have been, said Mr Rycroft.
Philip Rycroft and former senior BBC journalist, David Shukman were taking part in a sell-out event in Dumfries organised by the European Movement in Scotland.
In his opening remarks, Mr Shukman called Brexit, “The most catastrophic blunder any country has made.”
Mr Rycroft explained that following the Brexit referendum, the government had no plan. He led a team that produced an impact study that demonstrated that any form of Brexit was worse for the UK economy than staying in. Brexit has been far more complicated and difficult than the Leave side imagined, said the ex-civil servant.
“They promised big trade deals with other nations. None of any scale have materialised, particularly a deal with the USA. We would need around 30 trade deals like an American one to replace what we have lost in EU trade.”
Philip Rycroft went on the say that Brexit came at a very bad time for the UK. Since the 2016 referendum vote the world has become much more unstable. He cited the war in Ukraine and Russian belligerence, the subsequent energy crisis and raised tensions between the US and China.”
“Brexit has weakened a bond of trust and common cause that has existed between the UK and the European states since the end of WW2. In times like these we need those relationship to be as strong as possible.
“All of the UK’s predominate interests lie in Europe, whoever is in power.”
Brexit and Scottish independence
During his time at the Brexit department, Mr Rycroft also headed the UK government’s unit on UK constitutional affairs and devolution. He recalled that Brexit put immediate pressure on the workings of the UK union. Scotland had voted 62% Remain.
“It was an extraordinarily difficult time. We knew the union was in a pretty fragile state. Brexit revealed the core ambiguity of the nature of the relationship between Scotland and England. Is it a union of law or one of consent?”
Mr Rycroft believes Brexit has made an independent Scotland more likely, but also more difficult.
“A lot of people in Scotland were very angry that Scotland’s Brexit vote was subsidiary to the overall UK vote. That is a central fact that will be with us forever. It is a primary factor in the independence case.
“An independent Scotland would have to choose between joining the EU or staying in the UK single market. There is no way round that choice.”
After the general election
David Clarke, chair of the European Movement in Scotland says Mr Rycroft and Mr Shukman have been invited back for another conversation after the UK general election.
“Our guests, Philp Rycroft and David Shukman delivered a conversation that gave unique insights into the turmoil inside government after the Brexit vote.
“They provided hugely informative analysis of what has happened since. We had two speakers of the highest quality and have asked them back.” says David Clarke.
