The Scottish Government lacks a clear delivery plan and has not offered a coherent explanation for how its policies will achieve Scotland’s bold emissions reduction targets – that’s the conclusion of the latest assessment of Scotland’s progress by the Climate Change Committee.
In recent years, the Scottish Parliament has committed to extraordinary ambition to decarbonise its economy, with a welcome focus on a fair and just transition. That ambition should be applauded, but only if targets are achieved. The integrity of the Scottish climate framework is now at risk.
Lord Deben, Chairman of the Climate Change Committee said: “In 2019, the Scottish Parliament committed the country to some of the most stretching climate goals in the world, but they are increasingly at risk without real progress towards the milestones that Scottish Ministers have previously laid out. One year ago, I called for more clarity and transparency on Scottish climate policy and delivery. That plea remains unanswered.”
The Climate Change Committee has conducted a methodological review of the Scottish Climate Targets and assessed progress in cutting Scottish greenhouse gas emissions.
Between 2019 and 2020 emissions fell by 12% – half of 1990 levels for the first time. But the fall in 2020 is only a temporary effect, largely due to travel restrictions in the pandemic. Evidence from across the UK is that Scottish emissions will rebound in 2021. Underlying progress in reducing emissions in Scotland has largely stalled in recent years. Since the Scottish Climate Change Act became law in 2009, the Scottish Government has failed to achieve 7 of the 11 legal targets.
Scotland’s lead in decarbonising over the rest of the UK has now been lost. Progress is now broadly the same as the UK as a whole. Two years after the publication of the Climate Change Plan update, we do not see evidence of sufficient action to meet the Scottish Parliament’s ambition.
There are now glaring gaps in the Scottish Government’s climate plan and particular concerns about the achievement of the 2030 goal to cut emissions by 75%:
- Plans to decarbonise transport in Scotland are falling behind other parts of the UK. Sales of electric cars are now behind those of England, despite Scotland’s greater ambition to decarbonise transport. The Scottish Government has so far been unwilling to consider measures to recover the shortfall, such as restrictions on aviation growth.
- Scotland’s 2030 goal rests on rapid action to decarbonise buildings. Despite new public funding in this area, policies are still wholly inadequate to deliver the scale of low-carbon heat and energy efficiency improvements required.
- Agriculture and land. Detail on low-carbon agriculture policy following Scotland’s exit from the EU Common Agricultural Policy is needed urgently. It is not clear how the emissions targets set by Scottish Ministers in this area can be delivered in the absence of new policies. On the key issue of restoring Scotland’s peatland carbon stores, restoration rates are less than half of Scotland’s own target of 20,000 hectares per year, which is in turn much less ambitious than the CCC’s recommendation of 45,000 hectares per year by 2022.
For sectors in which policy is significantly devolved to Scotland (e.g. transport, land use and waste), indicators show that progress towards meeting the Scottish Government’s milestones is too slow. Policies and plans are not yet sufficient to speed things up to the required rate.
Closer cooperation with the UK Government is required in other areas, particularly to guide the decarbonisation of Scottish industry and develop new industries to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. There is little evidence of cooperative policy planning, which is now undermining the achievement of Scotland’s more ambitious short-term goals.
Within Scotland, better collaboration is also required between Scottish Government and local authorities. Many local authorities have declared climate emergencies and named ambitious Net Zero goals, but they need better support from Scottish Government, not least in securing the funding to drive policy. Collaboration in all these areas is key for realising both Scotland’s ambitions and the full potential of Scotland’s contribution to the UK’s Net Zero target.
Scotland must build on the positive areas of progress, including planning reform. The draft fourth National Planning Framework (NPF4) was an important step towards embedding Net Zero in the planning process and setting the direction of movement for major projects in Scotland, but its success will be determined by its implementation and enforcement, which remains unclear for now.
Environmental campaigners have said the the UK Committee on Climate Change has delivered a ‘scathing judgement’ of the Scottish Government’s climate efforts in their latest progress report published today (7/12/22).
Friends of the Earth Scotland’s head of campaigns Mary Church said: “The Climate Change Committee’s report is a scathing judgement on Scottish Government progress towards meeting our legally binding targets.
“With the impacts of climate breakdown wreaking havoc the world over at only 1°C warming this is literally a matter of life or death. The Scottish Government must urgently scale up its plans to cut climate pollution within the next decade.
“Fossil fuels are the key driver of the climate crisis so we urgently need to phase out oil and gas this decade through a just transition to a renewable-powered economy with decent green jobs and affordable energy for all.
“The Scottish Government must abandon the dangerous fantasy that techno-fixes like carbon capture and storage are going to save the day and start focusing on the real solutions to the climate crisis.
“That means investing in public transport and improving our public spaces to take cars off the road, rolling out mass energy efficiency schemes and renewable heat, all of which will have the added benefit of tackling the cost of living crisis as well as cutting emissions.
“As we move towards a more circular economy, the Scottish Government must also urgently address rising offshored emissions from the products we consume by setting robust consumption targets in law.”
The Committee on Climate Change report highlights:
* Continued lack of a clear delivery plan and quantification of how policies add up to meeting emissions reduction targets, despite Committee requests for this information;
* Seven of the last 11 years of emissions reduction targets have been missed, and the 2020 target was only met due to restrictions responding to the covid-19 pandemic;
* Scotland’s consumption emissions continue to grow, and are 50% higher than domestic production emissions, meaning we are offshoring more of our emissions;
* The welcome goal of reducing car-kilometres by 20% on 2019 levels by 2030 does not have an adequate strategy with sufficient levers to deliver;
* The Scottish Government has committed to grow aviation demand despite this running counter to climate ambitions and despite having powers, such as airport expansion control and Air Departure Tax, to curb aviation growth;
* Policies are not sufficient to deliver the aim of 70% reduction in emissions from buildings by 2030, in particular in making the transition to low-carbon heat and energy efficiency in homes;
* Emissions from electricity supply have fallen significantly, but more detail is needed on how full decarbonise the system while increasing generation capacity will be achieved;
* The moratorium on incineration and energy from waste is a welcome step, but Scotland is significantly off track with recycling rates;
* The Scottish Government has chosen heavy reliance on engineered removals (such as carbon capture and storage) to meet the 2030 target despite there being no projects in place, and detailed delivery plans have not been set out.
Reacting to the report, Stop Climate Chaos Scotland (SCCS) – a diverse coalition of over 60 organisations in Scotland campaigning together on climate change – is deeply concerned that ‘the integrity of the Scottish climate framework is now at risk’ due to inadequate action taken by the Scottish Government to meet targets.
Mike Robinson, Chair of SCCS said: “We welcome this expert and comprehensive report from the UK Committee on Climate Change, which provides the Scottish Government with a loud and clear wake up call.
“Scotland needs bold, decisive and immediate action to reduce emissions. Without this, the trend of missed targets, and failure to tackle the climate crisis will only continue.
“Having previously made more progress on decarbonising than the UK, this report shows that Scotland is now falling behind on a number of key areas, undermining credibility on the international stage just a month after COP27 and highlighting the need for more cooperation on reserved matters.
“The time for positive rhetoric is over – the Scottish Government must urgently redouble efforts to meet targets. Action is needed now to achieve the crucial 2030 target, while the forthcoming Climate Change Plan will be important for further actions, after 2030, to achieve longer term ambitions.”
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