The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report published yesterday (Monday 4 April) shows growth in global emissions has slowed over the past decade, but much more needs to be done, including halving global emissions by 2030, to keep the goal of 1.5C in reach and avoid the worst impacts of global warming.
- The window to keep 1.5C in reach is closing fast
- Global growth in emissions slowed in last decade but further urgent action vital
- UK COP Presidency calls on countries to deliver on the historic Glasgow Climate Pact agreed at COP26
The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report published yesterday shows growth in global emissions has slowed over the past decade, but much more needs to be done, including halving global emissions by 2030, to keep the goal of 1.5C in reach and avoid the worst impacts of global warming.
The IPCC’s independent report highlights the need for urgent action in decarbonising energy, industry, transport and making homes more energy efficient, to achieve the Paris Agreement’s central goal of keeping a global temperature rise this century to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5C.
The report also shows reasons for optimism with a trend showing a slowing growth of global emissions. It also details how economic growth can be achieved alongside ambitious emissions reductions and the falling costs of renewables. Since 2010, solar energy costs and lithium-ion battery costs have decreased by around 85%, and wind energy by around 55%.
The UK is calling on countries to deliver on the Glasgow Climate Pact, in which 197 countries agreed to revisit and strengthen their 2030 emissions reduction commitments (Nationally Determined Contributions) as necessary this year to align with the Paris Agreement temperature goal and thereby limit the worst impacts of climate change.
Governments from around the world have spent a fortnight at a UK-hosted session examining climate scientists’ evidence for this report. The IPCC has concluded that to limit warming to 1.5C, global emissions must peak before 2025, and then be halved by early 2030s – in part by ending the world’s reliance on fossil fuels, including reducing use of unabated coal by three quarters by 2030.
COP26 President Alok Sharma, said: “This report makes clear that the window to keep 1.5 degrees alive is closing alarmingly fast. The warning lights are yet again flashing bright red on the climate dashboard and it is high time for governments to sit up and act before it is too late.
“That is why it is absolutely vital that as agreed in the Glasgow Climate Pact all countries, especially the G20 nations which are responsible for 80 per cent of global emissions, revisit and strengthen their 2030 emission reduction targets this year as necessary to align with the Paris temperature goal if we are to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change.
“But this report also gives hope that the rate of growth in emissions is slowing and that thanks to the falling cost of renewables and technological innovation it is possible to transition to a cleaner future.
“We know that a net zero economy presents huge opportunities for growth and the creation of good green jobs and so countries and companies need to accelerate that transition.
“The UK has already committed to reducing carbon emissions by 68% by 2030 and by 78% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels, before reaching net zero by 2050 as set out in the UK’s comprehensive Net-Zero Strategy. It is calling on the global community to honour the commitment to provide at least $100bn a year to support developing countries take ambitious climate action.”
UK Minister of State for Energy and Climate Change, Greg Hands, said: “Today’s report is a reminder to the world of the grave threat of climate change.
“There is still a window of opportunity to act to reduce the effects.
“The UK is going further and faster to generate more cheap and clean renewable power. This will reduce our exposure to expensive global gas prices.
“We call on the global community to seize the moment and join us in stepping up a green transition.”
The IPCC’s last report, published in February, warned that some of the impacts of global warming are “irreversible”, with more than 40% of the world’s population now highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as extreme weather events like floods and heatwaves.
Today’s report also highlights the economic opportunities from the transition to a net zero economy, with the falling costs of renewable energy, and comes six months after the UK published a comprehensive Net Zero Strategy.
This sets out how it will secure 440,000 well-paid jobs and unlock £90 billion in investment by 2030, by helping British businesses and consumers transition to clean energy and green technology. It included £1 billion investment in electric vehicles, £3.9 billion for insulating our homes, along with support for commercialising sustainable aviation fuel and help heavy industry move to hydrogen power.
This month the UK is starting to spend its £200 million pledged to support developing countries cut emissions through the new extension of the Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions (PACT) programme.
The UK will also soon publish a new International Climate Finance (ICF) Strategy, laying out its delivery plan for £11.6 billion of investment to help countries across the globe respond to the climate emergency. The funding represents a doubling of support for communities worst affected by global warming.
Friends of the Earth: IPCC Climate Report shows ‘economic system is incompatible with life on Earth’
Environmental campaigners have said that the latest UN climate report makes clear that Governments must say no to new fossil fuels and tackle an economic system that is speeding us towards climate breakdown.
The IPCC’s latest report looks at ways to mitigate climate change and follows reports on the physical science in August 2021 and on the impacts of a changing climate that was presented last month. These reports help shape Government climate action around the world.
The report presents various models of future mitigation scenarios or ‘pathways’, for reducing emissions. These models are limited in that they are shaped by a variety of economic assumptions including continuous economic growth, and are therefore hotly debated politically choices about how to act.
Many of the models presented assume that we can allow global heating to rise beyond 1.5°C – known as overshooting – and then bring the temperature back down using as yet unproven technologies at some point in the future.
The IPCC’s last reporting cycle was 8 years ago, in which time the remaining carbon budget for holding warming to the critical 1.5°C has significantly diminished.
Friends of the Earth Scotland Head of Campaigns Mary Church said: “Today’s UN report is another stark warning that the likelihood of avoiding 1.5°C is shrinking fast.
“Deep emissions cuts are needed now, and the message at the heart of this latest study is that we must say no to all new oil and gas, put an end to fossil fuel subsidies and urgently start delivering a just transition for impacted communities.
“In assuming varying degrees of overshooting the critical 1.5°C threshold, the pathways set out in this report are simply untenable and show the political battles that are being fought around how to act on the science.
“Only last month we saw the previous UN report warning that the impacts of climate breakdown are happening sooner and are more devastating than previously thought, and of the irreversible impacts of going beyond 1.5°C.
“Yet corporations who are profiting from this catastrophe are pushing dangerous and speculative techno-fixes, that would gamble with life on earth for the sake of squeezing out every last drop of oil, and we are seeing their influence in the pathways set out.
“What’s crystal clear is that this crisis is being driven by over-consumption by the rich, particularly in the global north. Despite the bleak findings of today’s report, hope remains because the science also shows that another world, with decent standards of living for all, is possible within the remaining carbon budget.
“But only if we rapidly phase out fossil fuels, and wealthy countries responsible for driving the climate to the brink step up to the plate and start doing their fair share of action.”
Hemantha Withanage, Chair of Friends of the Earth International, based in Sri Lanka, said: “We cannot betray the promise of a 1.5°C degree warming threshold. If the IPCC’s WG3 report does not contain any mitigation pathways that keep us from breaching 1.5°C degrees within the constraints of the current economic paradigm, that is only proof that this economic system is incompatible with life on Earth.
“The priority for our communities, movements, and decision-makers must now be to end the era of fossil fuels and transform our societies and economies towards sustainable systems designed to address peoples’ needs, safety and wellbeing, not profit and greed.”
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