A new poll of 13 Scottish constituencies held by the Conservative Party shows that Boris Johnson is set to lose all of them to the SNP in a General Election.
A week after their Scottish leader Ruth Davidson quit, the skies have darkened further for Scottish Conservatives as YouGov battleground polling suggests the party would be wiped out North of the Border.
The polling, conducted exclusively in Conservative-held constituencies, points to a massive 14% slump (from 44% to 30%) in the party’s vote share in these seats, with an 8% rise (from 34% to 42%) for the SNP.
All the Scottish Tory MPs have endorsed Boris Johnson’s drive to force an undemocratic No Deal on the country. But, on the basis of this poll, all of them now face having to look for new jobs in just a matter of weeks if – and that’s a HUGE if – the Prime Minister can persuade the UK Parliament to back an early dissolution.
Based on a uniform swing the projected results are:
| Constituency | Projected Conservative share | Projected SNP share | Losing MP |
| Aberdeen South | 28% | 39% | Ross Thomson |
| Angus | 31% | 47% | Kirstene Hair |
| Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | 26% | 42% | Bill Grant |
| Banff and Buchan | 34% | 47% | David Duguid |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | 40% | 41% | John Lamont |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 29% | 40% | Alister Jack |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | 35% | 38% | David Mundell |
| East Renfrewshire | 26% | 39% | Paul Masterton |
| Gordon | 27% | 44% | Colin Clark |
| Moray | 34% | 47% | Douglas Ross |
| Ochil and South Perthshire | 27% | 43% | Luke Graham |
| Stirling | 23% | 45% | Stephen Kerr |
| West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | 34% | 40% | Andrew Bowie |
The poll shows a majority of voters in these constituencies would vote to keep the UK in the EU in a new referendum by 63% to 37% (excluding non-voters and don’t knows) with even a third of the diminished Conservative vote backing staying in the EU. And a majority (51%) back a new public vote on Brexit, a figure that rises to 58% when don’t knows are excluded.
Only a third of these voters back leaving the EU with No Deal and more people oppose an early general election than support (37%) the idea of a poll before any Brexit deadline.
The poll shows that voters are deeply pessimistic about the impact of any form of Brexit.
- By three to one voters in these battleground seats think Brexit will leave the economy weaker (53%) rather than stronger (17%).
- By almost seven to one those polled said Brexit would leave their family worse (48%) rather than better (7%) off.
- A similar ratio thought the NHS would get worse (48%) rather than better (13%).
For a party that traditionally campaigns on a platform of tax reductions and has wasted no effort in attacking the SNP’s taxation policies, the poll contains the devastating news that by almost ten to one voters think Brexit will make taxes rise (48% to 5% who think taxes will fall).
The poll also shows a majority of voters polled (50%) think today’s children will be left worse off by Brexit, with just 15% thinking the rising generation will have better opportunities than their parents as a result of Brexit.
Lord Andrew Cooper, previously pollster to Ruth Davidson said: “This poll sends a very serious warning to the Conservative and Unionist Party in Scotland.
“Boris Johnson’s threat to them is not that he will be a bump in the road on a slow but continuing recovery, but that he will effectively eliminate them overnight as a major force in Scottish politics, and so reverse ten years of patient hard work by Ruth Davidson and hundreds of hard working volunteers, councillors, MPs and MSPs.
“In the last decade Scottish unionist voters have looked for a vehicle to back to halt the SNP juggernaut. After 2014 and the Labour Party’s internal meltdown the Conservatives benefitted from that, but Boris Johnson would be making a huge mistake if he thought that rise was locked in.
“Asking Scottish voters to choose between their British and their European identities and forcing Scottish voters to back a nationalist agenda that might work in some parts of England looks as though it will spectacularly backfire.”
Ian Blackford MP, leader of the SNP’s Westminster Group, said: “This stunning poll underlines the strength of opposition to Brexit in Scotland.
“Boris Johnson’s reckless plans for an extreme Brexit would be devastating – threatening to destroy 100,000 Scottish jobs and inflict lasting harm on living standards, public services, and the economy. It is shameful that Scottish Tory MPs have completely failed to oppose them.
“People in Scotland deserve a choice over their future – rather than having a Brexit imposed on us, against our will, by Westminster – and that opportunity – to stop Brexit and choose a better future will be at the heart of the coming election campaign.”
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