Scotland’s revenues grow by £3 billion

Scotland’s notional deficit is falling faster than the UK’s, with onshore revenues increasing by 5.1% to reach £61.3 billion in 2018-19 as a result of continued economic growth.

According to the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures published yesterday, Scotland benefitted from a £3 billion increase in onshore revenues in the last year – the fastest growth since 2010-11 as the overall notional deficit fell by £1.1 billion to 7.0% of GDP, down from 8%, in 2018-19.

The reduction in the notional deficit is the result of revenues growing at a faster rate than expenditure.

Commenting on the latest figures during a visit to manufacturing company Armadilla Ltd in Bonnyrigg, Finance Secretary Derek Mackay said: “With record tax revenues, strong economic growth and near record low unemployment, Scotland’s economy and public finances are strong. Today’s figures show overall revenue in Scotland reached £62.7 billion – exceeding £60 billion for the first time – reflecting the strength of our economy.

“Our notional deficit has fallen while public spending has increased thanks to our efforts to grow the onshore economy and the strong performance of taxes in Scotland. The Scottish Government’s choices on taxation are helping to create a more progressive tax system.

“This strong performance from Scotland’s economy is at risk as a result of the UK Government’s EU exit plans, and in particular a ‘no deal’ Brexit, which poses a severe threat to jobs, investment and living standards

“A ‘no deal’ Brexit could reduce revenues in Scotland by around £2.5 billion a year, holding Scotland back and demonstrating why people in Scotland increasingly recognise the importance of making our own decisions.

“These figures reflect Scotland’s position as part of the UK. The Scottish Government believes we could unlock our full potential with independence, allowing us to take the best decisions for Scotland.

“As we have always said, Scotland has a strong, and growing, economy and our future will be far brighter as an independent member of the EU.”

Westminster puts a different slant on the latest figures, of course. Commenting on the Scottish Government’s GERS figures for 2018-19, Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said: “Today’s GERS figures show clearly how Scotland benefits from being part of a strong UK with every man, woman and child in Scotland receiving a ‘Union dividend’ of nearly £2,000 a year.

“These Scottish Government figures also show there would be a £12.6 billion black hole at the centre of an independent Scotland’s finances. Real questions need to be asked about the First Minister’s stewardship of the country’s economy.

“With Scotland’s deficit now more than six times greater than the UK average, the Scottish Government needs to take action.

“Scotland remains the highest taxed part of the UK. This is harming our economy and should be a huge concern to us all.

“The UK Government is investing in Scotland to deliver jobs, opportunities and sustainable growth, including £1.4 billion for city and growth deals. We are working hard to support businesses and bring further opportunities as we leave the EU on 31 October.”

The UK Government notes:

1. Using the Scottish Government’s own data, public spending in Scotland was nearly £1,661 per head higher than that of the UK average. In other words, in 2018-19 it was 13.6% higher than the UK average. Over the last five years, this gap has been on an upward trend from £1,182 or 10.2% in 2014-15 and £1,661 or 13.6% in the latest full financial year.
2. Scotland’s tax contributions, at £11,531, continue to be around £307 per head less than the UK average, at £11,838.
3. Scotland’s deficit [or borrowing] was nearly £1,968 per person larger than the UK average in 2018-19.
4. Scotland contributed 8.0% of UK tax and received 9.3% of UK spending in 2018-19 (Scotland’s population share was 8.2% in 2018-19), demonstrating how Scotland receives secure and stable levels of spending irrespective of the volatile tax revenues from the North Sea.
5. Whilst Scotland’s share of UK total revenue has marginally increased over the last year, it is generally on a downward trend. Since its peak at 9.7% in 2008-09, Scotland’s contribution to UK revenues has been on a downward trend in subsequent years and is currently at 8.0% of the UK total. This is marginally up from 7.9% the year before.
6. Total North Sea revenues fell slightly from £1.30 billion in 2017-18 to £1.24 billion in 2018/19. This is up from a low of minus £85 million in 2015-16 and down from a peak in 2008-09 of £10.6 billion.
7. Scotland’s net fiscal balance as a share of GDP was –7.0%, compared to –1.1% for the UK overall. This decreased from –8.1% in 2017-18, compared to the UK overall, which came down from –2.0%. In absolute terms, Scotland’s deficit was £12.6 billion in 2018-19, down from £13.8 billion in 2017-18 (incl. North Sea revenues).
8. While Scotland’s overall fiscal position improved in 2018-19, Scotland’s deficit as a share of its economy is over 6 times higher than that of the UK.

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The full statistical publication is available at http://www.gov.scot/gers