Business confidence in Scotland is highest in the UK

Bank of Scotland Business Barometer for November 2022 shows:  

·       Business confidence in Scotland rose 19 points during November to 24% – the highest reading since July 2022 and highest of all UK nations and regions 

·       Scottish businesses identify top growth opportunities as investing in their teams (43%), evolving their offering (40%) and introducing new technology (35%) 

·       Overall UK business confidence remains robust at 10% with all regions and nations reporting a positive confidence reading apart from the South East 

Business confidence in Scotland rose 19 points in November to 24% – the highest reading since July 2022 and highest of all UK nations and regions, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.  

The survey was conducted between 1st-15th November, before the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement announcement on Thursday the 17th November. 

Companies in Scotland reported higher confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, up eight points to 30%.  When taken alongside their optimism in the economy, up 30 points to 16% this gives a headline confidence reading of 24%.  

Scottish businesses identified their top target areas for growth in the next six months as investing in their teams (43%), evolving their offering (40%), and introducing new technology (35%).   
 
The Business Barometer, which questions 1,200 businesses monthly, provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide. 
 
A net balance of 8% of Scottish businesses expect to increase staff levels over the next year, down eight points on last month. 
 
Overall UK business confidence fell five points during November, but remained positive at 10%. Firms’ outlook on their future trading prospects was down two points to 25%, and their optimism in the wider economy dropped four points to -2%. Despite a seven-point dip, UK businesses remained positive about hiring intentions with 14% of firms aiming to create new jobs in the next 12 months. 

All UK regions and nations, apart from the South East, reported a positive confidence reading in November, with seven recording a month-on-month increase in confidence. Of those recording an increase in confidence, Scotland, Wales (up 12 points to 17%) and the South West (up nine points to 5%) saw the largest monthly changes. 

Chris Lawrie, area director for Bank of Scotland, said: “It’s encouraging to see confidence among firms in Scotland reach the highest in the UK, as they show their trademark resilience in the face of numerous headwinds and a challenging economy. 

“As firms look to the year ahead, they’ll have a close eye on managing rising prices, and keeping a close eye on working capital will help firms as they try to mitigate the effects of inflation on their operations. We’ll be by their side to ensure they are in the best position possible in the months ahead and they look to capitalise on opportunities for growth.” 

Business confidence in retail increased to 15% (up from 9%), perhaps reflecting a renewed confidence in trading prospects ahead of the festive season. However, business confidence in the manufacturing sector fell for the sixth month in a row, to 4%, down 9 points, the lowest confidence level since early 2021. 

The construction sector held gains made in October, remaining unchanged at 20%, although this level still remains weaker than in the first half of the year. 

Paul Gordon, Managing Director for SME and Mid Corporates, Lloyds Bank Business & Commercial Banking, said: “The fall in confidence shows just how tough it is for businesses right now. 

“Pressures from rising costs continue and businesses are starting to feel the burden of higher energy bills. However, the tentative easing of wage expectations should provide some solace although we know the labour market is still tight. 

“We would encourage businesses to keep a keen eye on their costs and cash flow as we head into the festive period. If any businesses are struggling, we would encourage them to reach out for support. At Lloyds Bank we remain by the side of businesses to help navigate these challenging times.” 

Hann-Ju Ho, Senior Economist Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “Given the recent political and economic landscape, it comes as little surprise that economic optimism and business confidence have fallen this month.

“Pay growth expectations remain high by historical standards, which could signal ongoing difficulties ahead for businesses to fill vacancies.

“Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see if the clearer policy picture provided by the Autumn Statement will lead to business confidence moving in a more positive direction as we go into 2023.” 

Husband and wife team at DM Hall oversee surge in firm’s business sales arm

As one of the few husband and wife teams working in the specialist surveying sector of business sales and valuation with DM Hall, Margaret and Jonathan Mitchell see eye-to eye about their ambitions for their revitalised department.

But there is scope for difference of opinion on some matters. Asked if they take work home to the kitchen table, Jonathan emphatically replied: “Yes!” At the same moment, and equally emphatically, Margaret said: “No!”

The fact that they then both burst out laughing perhaps reflects the comfortable nature of a relationship which is introducing a new dynamism into the Scotland-wide firm’s business sales and valuation department.

Since the Edinburgh-based team took on responsibility at the beginning of the year for the division, which advises clients at national and local level on valuation, sales, and acquisitions, it has boosted both completed and pipeline sales.

The speed at which they have reinvigorated the department – Margaret moved over to the department in March this year and Jonathan returned to DM Hall after several years in the wider UK – has parallels in their own relationship.

They met while working at DM Hall in Fife and, in a classic whirlwind romance, became engaged to be married within 10 days.

“Although our working life might come up as a subject of conversation at home,” said Jonathan, “it is not all-consuming and, certainly in the office and in our dealings with clients, we maintain a strictly professional demeanour.

“But obviously, we know each other well, and that makes it so much easier to work together as a cohesive team, with shared ambitions and aims, for the benefit of our clients.”

Although Scotland is still very much in the recovery phase from Covid, the business sales market is vibrant and continues to display healthy signs of activity and volume, said Margaret.

“Most market sectors, particularly including licensed and leisure, were impacted by the on-off shutdowns over the past year and a half and, now that restrictions have been lifted, there is a surge in turnover since people are just desperate to get out and spend.

“With this sudden profitability, many businesses are refilling their financial coffers and paying back loans, but many business owners are also reflecting on where they want to go in life and concluding that it is a very good time to sell.”

Retirement is a significant driver in DM Hall sales, which tend to specialise in individual businesses, and the department has developed a niche in understanding the emotional bonds which owners build up over decades of business life.

Many of our clients have invested blood, sweat and tears in the building of their businesses,” said Margaret, “and it can be a life-changing event to have to dispose of it, or hand over to the next generation.

“Part of where we fit is to listen and to understand their concerns. That is a key component of our brand. We provide professional, strategic advice, whether it is selling, buying or valuing, but we also have a comprehensive and detailed local knowledge and an unrivalled network of contacts throughout the country.

“We are not a call centre, with one-size-fits-all responses, and neither are we jacks of all trades. We understand the local market, the integral importance of profit and loss and the professional and personal imperatives of our clients.”

While at the moment in the marketplace willing sellers in search of willing buyers are in the ascendancy, the Mitchells argue that businesses which used the hiatus of the pandemic to refurbish, put training schemes in place, take the opportunity to trim costs and generally put the wheels in motion to reposition their offering will continue to thrive and will see greatest demand if presented to the market.

Meanwhile, despite kitchen table differences of opinion, the Mitchells agree about one thing: that the business sales and valuation department of DM Hall has a bright and sustainable future!

Jonathan Mitchell is an Associate RICS Valuer and Margaret Mitchell MRICS is a Chartered Surveyor in the Edinburgh Commercial office of DM Hall Chartered Surveyors.

For further information, contact DM Hall Chartered Surveyors, 17 Corstorphine Road, Edinburgh EH12 6DD. T: 0131 477 6000. E: edinburgh@dmhall.co.uk.

W: www.dmhall.co.uk.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/dmhallllp

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/dm-hall

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/dmhallsurveyors/

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/dmhallsurveyors/

New research reveals changing consumer habits

Over a third of Britons have tried a local small restaurant or shop for the first time by ordering online during the Coronavirus lockdowns, new research prepared by Public First on behalf of Internet Association (IA) has revealed.

And with 71 percent of small and medium sized businesses (SMEs) surveyed planning to continue selling products online after the end of lockdown, the research highlights how changing consumer habits have opened new revenue streams – both during the pandemic and into the future – for small businesses in the UK. 

As non-essential retail in England opened its doors on Monday, the findings – which include new public opinion research and a survey of 250 SMEs in the wholesale, retail and food sectors – show how shopping behaviours have changed during the pandemic and will continue after lockdown eases, as well as highlighting the vital role the internet has played in helping SMEs continue selling products throughout the pandemic.

The extent to which the internet has given SMEs the opportunity to continue selling products throughout the pandemic is clear – with 30 percent offering a delivery function for the first time and 20 percent offering online sales for the first time in order to continue being able to earn revenue while their shops were shut. 

The figures also highlight how the public used the internet to try local small shops and restaurants for the first time during the pandemic – as well as detailing the changing behaviour between online and in person shopping that will remain once the lockdown eases this week. 

The new research shows:

  • Nearly half of the public (48%) ordered food or drinks online from local restaurants during coronavirus lockdowns.
  • 36 percent of the public tried a local shop or food outlet for the first time by ordering online during the pandemic, with three quarters (76 percent) of those people now planning on visiting the outlet physically for the first time once restrictions are eased;
  • More people now plan on taking a blended approach to their shopping habits from next week, with 29 percent now saying they will shop half online, half in person (up from 23 percent saying the same of their habits before the coronavirus pandemic);
  • This blended approach from consumers is also expected by SMEs. When asked about their pre-pandemic sales, 17 percent said they had a mixture of online and in-store sales. However, a quarter (25 percent) now expect to have a mixture of online and in-store sales once retail reopens next week. 

An IA spokesperson said: “This new research shows how the internet has played a vital role during the lockdowns over the last 12 months. Importantly, it also shows how the internet can help drive the UK recovery forward.

“The way people work, shop, and do business may have changed for good – it is clear that the internet sector can help ensure that those changes boost the UK economy, communities, and wider society.

The new research of SMEs also showed:

  • 61 percent of SMEs surveyed said their business would not have been able to survive without using the internet to sell products during the lockdown;
  • 20 percent set up a social media page for the first time, helping firms expand their reach while physical shops had to be closed;
  • 25 percent allowed staff to work from home for the first time.

Scottish business confidence returns to pre-pandemic levels – but remains in negative territory

Bank of Scotland’s Business Barometer for March 2021 shows:

  • Overall confidence of firms in Scotland rose 15 points in the past month to -2%
  • Optimism grew in all UK nations and regions for a second consecutive month after roadmap for ending lockdown restrictions was laid out
  • Overall UK business confidence surged to its highest level since February 2020

Business confidence in Scotland rose 15 points during March to -2%, the highest reading since March 2020, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.

The data has been released just a week after the one-year anniversary of the first COVID-19 lockdown.

Companies reported higher confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, up 6 points at -5%.  When taken alongside their optimism in the economy, which was up 24 points to 2%, the increases give a headline confidence reading of -2%. Despite the increase, Scotland was the only area of the UK to give a net pessimistic reading during March.

The Business Barometer questions 1,200 businesses monthly and provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.

When it comes to jobs, a net balance of 20% of firms in Scotland expect to reduce staff levels over the next year, up 16 points on last month.

The UK picture

Overall UK business confidence rose for a second consecutive month in March. Firms’ confidence increased by 13 points to 15%, the highest reading since February 2020, before coronavirus was confirmed as a pandemic by the World Health Organisation. 

UK firms’ economic optimism also increased by 15 points to 17%, while confidence in their own business prospects jumped 10 points to 12%.

In fact, every UK region and nation reported an increase in overall confidence during March, with most reporting a double-digit rise month-on-month. The North East (1% to 26%), West Midlands (3% to 27%) and East of England (-8% to 12%) reported the largest increases.

Fraser Sime, regional director for Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking, said: “Scottish business confidence has increased for a second consecutive month and is the highest since March 2020. Despite it remaining in negative territory, there is hope that the end of a challenging year is now in sight. 

“We’ll remain by the side of businesses in Scotland as restrictions are eased in the coming weeks and months, helping them on the road to recovery and as they seek new growth opportunities.”

Paul Gordon, Managing Director for SME and Mid Corporates, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “We have completed a full circle since lockdown began in March 2020 and it is uplifting to see businesses portraying confidence for the months ahead. The regions have reported a tremendous result in confidence, especially England which is positive across the board.

“In the sectors, the uptick in confidence for manufacturing is driven by strong trading prospects, while in retail, there is an anticipation that pent-up demand will drive consumption when restrictions are lifted. The months ahead will play a pivotal role in charting the course for the UK’s recovery and we remain by the side of businesses as they go along on this journey.”

Hann-Ju Ho, Senior Economist, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “It’s been a year since the first lockdown and the surge in confidence this month tells us firms are increasingly confident about economic recovery.

“The broadly positive outlook is driven by steady vaccine deployment, the roadmap out of lockdown and the extension of government support measures. It will be interesting to see whether the momentum for stronger business optimism is sustained in the months ahead.”

Confidence drops in Scotland as lockdown restrictions continue

Bank of Scotland’s Business Barometer for January 2021 shows:

  • Overall confidence of firms in Scotland fell 23 points in the past month to -32%
  • 52% of firms are confident the Covid-19 vaccination roll-out will boost trading prospects in 2021
  • Optimism falls in seven of 11 UK regions and nations as firms deal with latest lockdown restrictions

Business confidence in Scotland fell 23 points during January to -32%, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.

Companies in Scotland reported lower confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, down 20 points to -27%.  When taken alongside their views of the economy, down 25 points to -37%, this gives a headline confidence reading of -32%.

The Business Barometer questions 1,200 businesses monthly and provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.

The majority (65%) of firms said current Covid-19 restrictions had caused a fall in turnover but they expected the effects of the vaccine programme to boost trading prospects for 2021, with 52% saying the rollout had made them feel more confident about the year ahead. However, only 11% expect trading levels to return to pre-pandemic levels in the next twelve months.

When it comes to jobs, a net balance of 28% of businesses in Scotland expect to reduce staff levels over the next year, down five points on last month.

At UK level, overall business confidence dipped in January as the latest lockdown restrictions came into force, falling by three points to -7%. Firms’ economic optimism dropped dramatically month-on-month, decreasing by 34 points to -10%.

Almost all UK nations and regions saw a month-on-month dip in confidence during January, with the biggest falls after Scotland (-32% vs -9% in December) being reported in Wales (-20% vs -1% in December) and the South West (-8% vs 5% in December).

However, firms reported a month-on-month increase in confidence in London (up five percentage points to 3%), the South East (up seven percentage points to -4%) and North West (up eight percentage points to -5%). Yorkshire business confidence remained steady month-on-month at -4%.

Fraser Sime, regional director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking, said: “This latest drop in confidence has appeared against a backdrop of tighter restrictions being reintroduced in Scotland. However, despite this dip, fewer firms report they are planning on making redundancies in the year ahead, the second consecutive month this has fallen.

“We know Scottish businesses have been resilient since the pandemic began and the vaccination roll-out is boosting firms’ optimism about the coming months. We’ll be by the side of businesses to help them navigate both the short-term challenges and long-term opportunities ahead.” 

In the industry sectors confidence remained above pre-vaccine levels (chart 4). While some sectors reported declines, manufacturing slipped by nine points to 9%, services fell by four points to -9% and retail by five points to 6%. Confidence levels in the construction sector improved for a second month, rising four points to -1%.

Paul Gordon, Managing Director for SME and Mid Corporates, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “It has not been an easy start to 2021, but nonetheless businesses continue to persevere and remain resilient in the face of uncertainty and change – the construction sector’s confidence improving for a second month and more broadly, industry and the majority of the regional confidence sitting above pre-vaccine levels.

“While the road ahead will be challenging, we hope the news of the vaccine rollout progress will positively impact regional and sector confidence in the coming months.”

Hann-Ju Ho, Senior Economist, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “It has been a challenging start to the New Year for UK businesses adapting to a third national lockdown alongside the new EU trade arrangement taking effect.

“Nevertheless, while confidence remains below average, it is encouraging that business sentiment is still the second highest since the low of May 2020. Overall, the vaccine rollout programme has lifted confidence and that will hopefully buoy business optimism in the coming months.”

Entrepreneur aims to Keep Edinburgh Thriving

Pioneering venture Keep Edinburgh Thriving will allow residents to continue to ‘shop local’ whilst simultaneously supporting businesses across Edinburgh to survive COVID-19 and beyond 

Three weeks ago, everything changed overnight for small businesses across the city of Edinburgh. Social distancing measures forced them to close their doors indefinitely and the future for each of them, became somewhat uncertain.

In an attempt to provide these independent vendors with a much-needed lifeline, local entrepreneur, Robbie Allen has launched Keep Edinburgh Thriving, a service that will see a selection of local high-quality products packaged up into gift boxes and delivered to households across Scotland’s capital.

The pioneering venture will allow local residents to continue to ‘shop local’ whilst simultaneously providing a critical lifeline to these businesses, helping them with cash flow and financial sustainability during COVID-19 and beyond.

Robbie Allen, founder of Keep Edinburgh Thriving comments: “It is a really simple idea. Our aim is to Keep Edinburgh Thriving.

“We are partnering with a bunch of amazing local businesses in Edinburgh and taking these high-quality products and handling all the logistics and e-commerce side of things for them so that they can continue to grow and sustain their company and livelihood.

“This is a really tough time for our beloved high street, and we want to help as many local Edinburgh businesses as possible. As soon as you place an order this instantly benefits our local partners providing the products in each gift box.”

There are two box sizes of gift box available – a small box contains 4-5 items (£39) and a large contains 6-7 items (£55). Customers will receive a variety of products including artisan food and snacks, local art, drinks, craft coffee, beer, spirits, lifestyle products (candles, coasters, notebooks, mugs/tumblers) and local skin care products, all of which will be high-quality and local to Edinburgh.

To help support the local community further during this epidemic, £2 from each gift box sale will be donated to the Edinburgh Food Project.

The rapid spread of COVID-19 has caused a sudden, steep decline in business for cafes, restaurants, boutiques, artisans, creators and local retailers.

For more information about how to support your local high street and keep Edinburgh Thriving, visit www.keepedinburghthriving.com

March sees sharp fall in Scottish business confidence

Bank of Scotland’s Business Barometer for March 2020 shows:

  • Overall confidence for firms in Scotland fell 22 points in the past month to -7%
  • Firms’ confidence in their own business prospects was -4%, compared with 14% in February
  • Research undertaken between 2nd and 16th March shows a sharper fall in confidence nationally during second week of the survey at -3%, among the lowest figures seen since the financial crisis

Business confidence in Scotland fell 22 points during March to -7%, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.

The research, taken between the 2nd and 16th March, showed that companies in the region had lower confidence in their business prospects at -4%. When taken alongside their views of the economy overall, this gives an overall confidence of -7%.

Across the UK, overall business confidence fell by 17 percentage points to 6% in March, the lowest level since October 2019.

However, the report showed that nationally, for the second week of the survey, a much sharper fall in overall confidence was recorded at -3%. It matches the lowest dip seen by the barometer since December 2011 and is otherwise the lowest dip since March 2009 during the global financial crisis.

Responding specifically to the impact of the Coronavirus, 66% of Scotland businesses stated that they had already been affected or expected to be impacted, ahead of Boris Johnson’s initial call for the public to stay at home on March 16th. The data illustrates the impact that the outbreak was having on business confidence before many initiatives launched by the Government to help combat the virus were announced.

The Business Barometer questions 1,200 businesses monthly and provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.

Fraser Sime, regional director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland, said: “It’s impossible to accurately predict how COVID-19 will impact the Scottish economy, so it’s not surprising to see the confidence of Scottish businesses taking a dip as the pandemic evolves.

“The First Minister has called for a partnership to get through this period where the public sector, trade unions, businesses and third sector organisations work together to support Scotland’s workforce. We’re also working by the side of businesses and the government to help firms adapt and adjust as we navigate through this unprecedented period.

“At Bank of Scotland, we’ve committed to lend up to £18bn to businesses this year and have set aside £2bn of arrangement fee free finance to help those directly impacted by COVID-19. From tourism and hospitality to manufacturing, this support is available now. And we will continue to guide and help businesses across all sectors through any interruptions they may face.”

Businesses in the North East had the highest confidence at 23%, ahead of the South West at 16%, and London at 12%.

Those in the South East were the least confident, with an overall confidence of -10%, 16 points below the national average.

Sector overview

In March, overall business confidence fell across all four sectors surveyed. Confidence in the retail sector saw the sharpest decline, falling 21 percentage points to 9%. The manufacturing sector also saw a big decline from 31% to 11%, services was down 18 points to 1%, while the construction sector fell by 15 points to 14%.

Paul Gordon, Managing Director for SME and Mid Corporates, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “There is now little doubt that businesses across the board are feeling the impact of COVID-19. 

“Many businesses have already had to pause their work and others are trying to adapt to new ways of working.

While all sectors have displayed a real dip in confidence, it is important that businesses take the support that is available to them to help them through this unprecedented and uncertain time. We remain committed to supporting our customers in the weeks and months ahead in any way we can.”

Hann-Ju Ho, Senior Economist, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: “The results in March demonstrate the impact of the shutdown of large swathes of the economy to combat the pandemic even in advance of the Government’s stringent measures announced in recent days.

“Sentiment has returned to historic low levels after improving in recent months. We will continue to monitor what businesses are telling us, and hope that they can take steps to minimise the impact of current economic downturn.”

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